scholarly journals HOW SUSTAINABLE ARE OECD CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES IN THE LONG RUN?*

2006 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 626-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARK J. HOLMES
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Current Account Balances

scholarly journals Unemployment and Current Account Imbalances in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (12, 20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewere F.O. Okungbowa ◽  
◽  
Adesuwa O. Erediauwa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Current Account Imbalances ◽  
Current Account Balances ◽  
Account Imbalances

This study explores the link that exists between unemployment and current account imbalances in Nigeria from 1980 to 2014. It adopted the ARDL bounds test approach. The result gave evidence for a long-run relationship between the variables and also revealed a significant and inverse relationship between current account surplus and unemployment. Showing that a 1% increase in current account balances in favour of export will lead to a drop in the unemployment rate by 0.117893%. This, therefore, implies that current account deficit will cause a fall in employment and in turn a rise in the unemployment rate. Consequently, current account deficit leads to wage differentials in favour of the exporting countries as against importing countries, like Nigeria, and as such triggers a high rate of unemployment. We strongly recommend diversification of the country’s export-base which may increase employment opportunities and in turn reduce the unemployment rate. Keywords: Unemployment, Employment, Current Account Balances, Balance of payment, Output growth

scholarly journals Sustainability of current account balances in small states

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Jeetendra Khadan ◽  
Amrita Deonarine
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Budget Constraint ◽  
Small States ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Current Account Sustainability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Current Account Balances

This article applies the inter-temporal budget constraint framework and panel cointegration tests to examine the sustainability of current account deficits in 17 small states over the period 1995-2016. The findings show the existence of cointegration between real exports and real imports, but with the magnitude of the long-run coefficient being less than one, which support a “weak” form of current account sustainability in small states.

Exchange rates in India: current account monetarism in a nonlinear context

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aditi Chaubal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Polynomial Function ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Monetary Model ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nonlinear Mean Reversion ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

AbstractThe Indian exchange rate system has evolved from a pegged system to the current managed float. The study examines the presence of a long-run equilibrium in the monthly Indian exchange rate (Rs/USD) using a current account monetary model (or flexible price monetary model) while accounting for different nonlinearities over the period January 1993 to January 2014 (pre-inflation targeting period). The nonlinear adjustment to disequilibria is modelled using a nonlinear error correction model (NLECM). The nonlinear current account monetarism (CAM) model includes nonlinear transformations of long-run dynamics in the ECM to account for different nonlinearities: multiple equilibria (cubic polynomial function), nonlinear mean reversion (rational polynomial function), and smooth and gradual regime switches (exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) function). The NLECM-ESTAR model outperforms other alternatives based on model and forecast performance measures, implying the existence of nonlinear mean reversion and smooth transition across different periods of overvaluation and undervaluation of the exchange rate. This implies the presence of asymmetric adjustment to the movements from the long-run equilibrium, but the nature of such transitions is smooth and not abrupt. The paper also establishes the uniqueness of the long-run equilibrium. A comparison to the sticky price monetary model could not be made due to stationary exchange rate disequilibrium.

HABIT FORMATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Karayalçin
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

The paper studies the effects of an expansionary fiscal policy in a general equilibrium model of a small open economy. Households are assumed to possess habit-forming, endogenous rates of time preference. In response to fiscal shocks, the model generates cyclical endogenous persistence and procyclical time paths for consumption, employment, and investment, as well as a countercyclical path for the current account. Furthermore, fiscal shocks are shown to have positive long-run effects on output and negative long-run effects on consumption.

scholarly journals Twin deficits in small open Baltic economies

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-239
Author(s):  
Veronika Suliková ◽  
Marianna Sinicáková ◽  
Denis Horváth
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Twin Deficits ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

This paper analyzes the twin deficit hypothesis - simultaneous current account deficit and budget deficit - in three small open Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) running under certain forms of the fixed exchange rate regime. The idea of twin deficits is tested using the vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality tests and forecast variance decomposition, involving three variables: current account, budget balance, and investments. The new estimates confirm significant long-run positive relation between budget balance and current account in Estonia and Lithuania on one hand and the negative one in case of budget balance and investments in all three considered countries. The results of the analysis are specific to each country as they depend on their particular macroeconomic background. The contribution was elaborated within the project VEGA 1/0973/11.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Jovana Žugić ◽  
Sonja Tomaš-Miskin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

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