Evaluating the GDP-energy consumption nexus for the ASEAN-5 countries using nonlinear ARDL model

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 318-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid M. Kisswani
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-157
Author(s):  
İsmet Göçer ◽  
Serdar Ongan

Abstract This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of changes in inflation rates on the US bond rates. This investigation is constructed on the Fisher Equation. To this end, the nonlinear ARDL model is applied. Empirical findings indicate that only the decreases (π− t ) in inflation rates affect bond rates. This asymmetric impact therefore shapes the FED’s monetary policy in terms of determining the bond rates at lower cost. When the inflation rate rises, the FED will know (in advance) that they do not need to increase the bond rates. This reminds us the FED’s former pre-emptive strike policy against inflation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-304
Author(s):  
Serdar Ongan ◽  
Ismet Gocer

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the presence of the Fisher effect for the USA from a new methodological perspective differing it from all previous studies using the common linear representation of the Fisher equation. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear ARDL model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied for the 10-year US Government bond rates over the period of 1985M1-2017M10. Findings The empirical findings indicate that the US Federal Reserve (FED) is a more predominant arbiter in the determination of interest rates during periods of declining inflation rates than periods of rising inflation rates. This finding may allow the FED to apply more proactive and prudent monetary policy. Additionally, this study newly describes and introduces a different version of the partial Fisher effect and extends the Fisher equation to some degree in terms of the partial Fisher effect. Originality/value To the best the authors’ knowledge, this method is applied for the first time in testing the Fisher effect for the USA.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 5006
Author(s):  
Imran Khan ◽  
Faheem Ur Rehman ◽  
Paula Pypłacz ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Agnieszka Wiśniewska ◽  
...  

Developing countries, including Pakistan, need a considerable effort to withstand economic growth; however, these countries have to cope with greenhouse gases emission and other environmental concerns. Financial advancement gives rise to modern, sometimes even innovative and energy-efficient technologies and, thus, contributes to a decline in energy usage among market entities: organizations and households. The current study explores the nonlinear asymmetric relationship between economic growth (Y) and the selected exogenous variables in Pakistan by incorporating time series data spanning from 1971 to 2016. Economic growth was considered as a target variable, while energy consumption (EC), electric power consumption (EPC), financial development (FD), and energy imports (EM) were considered independent variables. To investigate cointegration among the given variables, a nonlinear ARDL bound testing approach was employed. BDS independence test was used to check the nonlinearity, and a structural break unit root test was used for testing data stationarity. The findings confirm the presence of co-integration in the selected variables. A symmetric unidirectional significant causality exists running from EPC to Y, while a bidirectional symmetric causality was found between FD and Y. In contrast, any negative shocks in EPC, FD, and EM were found to have a positive asymmetric effect on Y. Meanwhile, a neutral effect was found between EC and Y. The outcomes of this study can provide guidelines for future researchers and policymakers.


2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-129
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Huseyin Karamelikli

We consider the short-run and the long-run effects of the real Turkish Lira-Euro rate on the trade balance of each of the 64 industries that trade between Turkey and Germany. We find relatively more significant effects by estimating a nonlinear ARDL model for each industry. Indeed, the approach of separating currency depreciation from appreciation identified the five largest Turkish industries that engage in more than 50 % of the trade between these two countries and that benefitted from Turkish Lira depreciation against the Euro.


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