scholarly journals Testing Wagner’s Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Selected Post‑Soviet Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 1227-1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeyhun A. Abbasov ◽  
Khatai Aliyev
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
Modelling Approach

The aim of this research is to test Wagner’s law and Keynesian hypothesis in 9 Post‑Soviet countries – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Ukraine. For this purpose, long‑ and short‑run causality between real per capita GDP and real per capita government expenditures are estimated by employing ARDL modelling approach. Estimation results support validity of Wagner’s law for Latvia, Lithuania, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic and Ukraine, and validity of Keynesian hypothesis for Estonia, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Moldova in the long‑run. Meanwhile, research findings indicate strong bidirectional short‑run causality in all countries except Lithuania and Kyrgyz Republic in the short‑run.

Growth of Government Expenditure in Bangladesh: An Empirical Enquiry into the Validity of Wagner's Law

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1850162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Abul Kalam ◽  
Nusrate Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Wagner's Law

The study empirically investigates ‘Wagner's law,' the relationship between ‘social progress' and ‘growth of state activity' in an economy, using Bangladesh data from 1976 to 2007 in a bivariate as well as a trivariate framework incorporating ‘population size' as a third variable. The estimated results provide evidence in favour of Wagner's law for Bangladesh in both the short-run and long-run. There is a long-run cointegration relation among real government expenditure, real GDP and the size of population where government expenditure is positively tied with the real GDP (1.14), per capita GDP (1.51) and population size (0.21). Both the real GDP and GDP per capita Granger cause total government expenditure to change. Population size also comes up as a significant stimulus for public spending to grow in both the long-run and short-run.

Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner’s Law in OECD Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Lamartina ◽  
Andrea Zaghini
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Capita Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Proportional Increase ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Wagner's Law

Abstract The paper proposes a panel cointegration analysis of the joint development of government expenditure and economic growth in 23 Organization Economic Cooperation and Development countries. The empirical evidence provides indication of a structural positive correlation between public spending and per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), which is consistent with the so-called Wagner’s law. A long-run elasticity larger than 1 suggests a more than proportional increase of government expenditure with respect to economic activity. In addition, according to the spirit of the law, we found that the correlation is usually higher in countries with lower per-capita GDP, suggesting that the catching-up period is characterized by a stronger development of government activities with respect to economies in a more advanced state of development.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and the Environment: An Empirical Investigation for SAARC Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol I (I) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Abida Yousaf ◽  
Naila Erum ◽  
Fozia Bibi
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Open Economy Models

The study tests the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for SAARC countries by using closed and open economy Models. The Peroni Panel Cointegration technique along with FMOLS estimation techniques have been used for empirical analysis by using the data from 1972-2015. The long run and short run estimates of the closed economy model reveals positive and significant relationship between Per capita GDP, per capita GDP2 and the carbon emissions that deny the existence of EKC. The findings of open economy model signify that FDI not only helps to transfer cleaner technologies, but it enables the producers to use less pollutant technologies for the production purposes. Moreover, an increase in the forest area is helpful for reducing the carbon emissions. Finally, population density and energy consumption are proved significant contributors of carbon emissions. The study suggests that effective policies should be followed for reducing emissions, regulating FDI-environment and per capita GDP environment relationship.

scholarly journals Implication of Coal Expansion and Regional Energy Trading Center to Climate Goal: Dual Sustainability Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund Ntom Udemba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract This current study seeks to investigate the policy implication of Turkey’s recent energy policies on its sustainable development. This study uses Turkey’s country-specific data and series of 1974 to 2018 for effective investigation and justification of the findings of this study with emphasis on both short run and long run implications. Three models were fitted to achieve study objectives to accommodate both environmental sustainability and economic impacts. Ecological footprint was considered better measure and used as proxy for the environment related model. In summary, with environment models, the selected series (per capita GDP, Industrialization, agriculture, coal as a single energy use and mixed energy use) except per capita GDP2 were found positively and significantly related to ecological footprint both in short run and long run which translates to poor performance of Turkey’s environment. Also, using economic growth model, the selected series (Industrialization, energy use and agriculture) were all confirmed positively and significantly related to the economic growth (per capita GDP). Additionally, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) was established for Turkey’s environment and economic performance. Furthermore, using Granger causality as robust check to these findings, a nexus was found among the series confirming the validity of the cointegration (short and long run policies) estimations and results. In congruence with literature and hypotheses, the results from cointegration estimation shows that the twin polices may be good to the economic performance but will spark off adverse effect on environment.JEL Classification: C1, C32, E6, L7, O4, Q3, Q4, Q5

scholarly journals Threshold Cointegration, Asymmetric Causality and Wagner’s Law: The African Experience Revisited

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaya Keho
Keyword(s):  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Threshold Cointegration ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Wagner's Law

This study re-examines the Wagner's law of public expenditure for six sub-Saharan African countries while relaxing the assumption of a symmetric adjustment process underlying standard cointegration tests and error-correction models. The empirical methodology uses threshold cointegration tests to establish that there is a long-run relationship between government expenditure and per capita GDP for five countries, with income being positively related to public spending. Furthermore, the results of asymmetric Granger-causality tests provide support for Wagner’s law in the long run for five countries (Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal), while the Keynesian view holds only in the short run for three countries (Benin, Cameroon, and Cote d’Ivoire). The short run evidence for two countries (Kenya and Senegal) support both Wagner’s law and Keynesian view.

Long Run Money Neutrality: The Case of Guatemala

2005 ◽  
pp. 127-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederick H. Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Neutrality Test ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

The Fisher and Seater (1993) methodology is used to test for the long run neutrality of money in Guatemala, 1950-2001. Real GDP, real per capita GDP, and the money measures, M1 and M2, are integrated of order one [1(1)]. Given these orders of integration, the Fisher-Seater neutrality test can be applied. The evidence suggests that M1 and M2 are neutral with respect to real GDP. Furthermore, the test indicates that M1, but not M2, is neutral with respect to real per capita GDP as well.

scholarly journals Do Military Expenditure and Conflict Affect Economic Growth in Sri Lanka? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Abdul Rasheed Sithy Jesmy ◽  
Mohd Zaini Abd Karim ◽  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Bounds Test

Conflicts in the form of civil war, ethnic tensions and political discord are of enduring concern and a major bottleneck to economic development in Sri Lanka. Three decades of civil war and unethical political culture have caused severe economic problems for the country, including slower rate of growth and a huge defence expenditure. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of military expenditure and conflict on per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka from 1973 to 2014 using the Solow growth model and ARDL bounds test approach. The results of the bounds test are highly significant and lead to cointegration. The negative and significant coefficients of the error correction term illustrate the expected convergence process in the long-run dynamic of per capita GDP. The estimated empirical results show that, the coefficients of military expenditure and conflict are negative and statistically significant in the short-run as well as in the long-run in determining per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka. Hence, it is critically important to take necessary action to decrease military expenditure and provide an efficient political solution to the problem of minorities, specifically in the post-war period.

Does educational progress impact energy consumption? A causality test for India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Rej ◽  
Barnali Nag
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Educational Advancement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose Both energy and education have been positioned as priority objectives under the itinerary of UN development goals. Hence, it is necessary to address the implicit inter relationship between these two development goals in the context of developing nations such as India who are trying to grow in both per capita income and socio economic factors whilst struggling with the challenges of a severe energy supply constrained economy. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, the causal relationship between energy consumption per capita and education index (EI) as a proxy of educational advancement is investigated for India for 1990–2016 using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and vector error correction model. Findings The empirical results infer although energy consumption per capita and EI lack short run causality in either direction, existence of unidirectional long run causality from EI to per capita energy consumption is found for India. Further, it is observed that energy consumption per capita takes around four years to respond to unit shock in EI. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study imply that with the advancement of education, a rise in per capita energy consumption requirement can be foreseen on the demand side, and hence, India’s energy policy needs to emphasize further its sustainable energy supply goals to meet this additional demand coming from a population with better education facilities. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that this manuscript is entirely their own original study and not submitted elsewhere.

scholarly journals AID AND GROWTH IN BANGLADESH: A REASSESSMENT

2018 ◽  
pp. 422-440
Author(s):  
Sharif Hossain ◽  
Rajarshi Mitra ◽  
Thasinul Abedin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Although the amount of foreign aid received by Bangladesh as a share of GDP has declined over the years, Bangladesh remains one of the heavily aiddependent countries in Asia. The results of most empirical studies that have examined the effectiveness of foreign aid or other forms of development assistance for economic growth have varied considerably depending on the econometric methodology used and the period of study. As the debate and controversy over aid-effectiveness for economic growth continue to grow, this paper reinvestigates the short-run and long-run effects of foreign aid received on percapita real income of Bangladesh over the period 1972–2015. A vector error correction model is estimated. The results indicate lack of any significant short-run and long-run relation between foreign aid and per-capita real income. Results further indicate short-run unidirectional causalities from per-capita real GDP to domestic investment (in proportion to GDP), from government expenditure (in proportion to GDP) to inflation rate, from inflation rate to domestic investment (in proportion to GDP), and from domestic investment to foreign aid (as percentages of GDP). Short-run bidirectional causality is observed between per-capita electricity consumption and per-capita real GDP, and between per-capita real GDP and government expenditure (in proportion to GDP).

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