Sensitivity Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Electricity for a Particle-Based CSP System

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Luis F. González Portillo ◽  
Kevin Albrecht ◽  
Clifford K. Ho ◽  
Jeremy Sment ◽  
Brantley Mills
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Heat Exchanger ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Wind Effect ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Levelized Cost Of Electricity ◽  
Receiver Model ◽  
Tower Height ◽  
And Storage

Abstract This study presents a sensitivity analysis of the LCOE for a particle-based system with the costs of the most current components. New models for the primary heat exchanger, thermal energy storage and tower are presented and used to establish lower and upper bounds for these three components. The rest of component costs such as particle cost, cavity cost and lift cost are set to lower and upper bounds estimating an uncertainty between 25% and 50%. Other relevant parameters related to lift and storage performance are also included in the analysis with the same uncertainty. This study also includes an upgrade to the receiver model by including the wind effect in the efficiency, which was not included in previous publications and may have a big impact in the system design. A parametric analysis shows the optimum values of solar multiple, storage hours, tower height and concentration ratio, and a probabilistic analysis provides a cumulative distribution function for a range of LCOE values. The results show that the LCOE could be below $0.06/kWh with a probability of between 80% and 90%, where the costs of primary heat exchanger, particles and lifts have largest contribution to the variance of the LCOE.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Electricity for a Particle-Based CSP System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis F. González-Portillo ◽  
Kevin J. Albrecht ◽  
Jeremy Sment ◽  
Brantley Mills ◽  
Clifford K. Ho
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Heat Exchanger ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Wind Effect ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Levelized Cost Of Electricity ◽  
Receiver Model ◽  
Tower Height ◽  
And Storage

Abstract This study presents a sensitivity analysis of the LCOE for a particle-based system with the costs of the most current components. New models for the primary heat exchanger, thermal energy storage and tower are presented and used to establish lower and upper bounds for these three components. The rest of component costs such as particle cost, cavity cost, lift cost and balance of power are set to lower and upper bounds estimating a 25% of uncertainty. Some relevant parameters such as lift efficiency and storage thermal resistance are also included in the analysis with a 25% uncertainty. This study also includes an upgrade to the receiver model by including the wind effect in the efficiency, which was not included in previous publications. A parametric analysis shows the optimum values of solar multiple, storage hours, tower height and concentration ratio, and a probabilistic analysis provides a cumulative distribution function for a range of LCOE values. The results show that the LCOE could be below $0.06/kWh with a probability of 90%, where the highest uncertainty is on the primary heat exchanger cost.

scholarly journals A CASE STUDY OF THE IRANIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY AND ITS ABSOLUTE CAPACITY EXPANSION USING ANALYTICAL MODELS

Transport ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 398-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bayan Bevrani ◽  
Robert L. Burdett ◽  
Prasad K. D. V Yarlagadda
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Train Services ◽  
Railway Capacity ◽  
Capacity Determination

Identifying railway capacity is an important task that can identify ‘in principal’ whether the network can handle an intended traffic flow, and whether there is any free capacity left for additional train services. Capacity determination techniques can also be used to identify how best to improve an existing network, and at least cost. In this article, an optimization approach has been applied to a case study of the Iran national railway, in order to identify its current capacity and to optimally expand it given a variety of technical conditions. This railway is very important in Iran and will be upgraded extensively in the coming years. Hence, the conclusions in this article may help in that endeavor. A sensitivity analysis is recommended to evaluate a wider range of possible scenarios. Hence, more useful lower and upper bounds can be provided for the performance of the system.

Extension of the Spatial PDI Model to Three Dimensions

1997 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 176-178
Author(s):  
Frank O'Brien
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Dimensional Space ◽  
Finite Lattice ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Density Index ◽  
Three Dimensional Space

The author's population density index ( PDI) model is extended to three-dimensional distributions. A derived formula is presented that allows for the calculation of the lower and upper bounds of density in three-dimensional space for any finite lattice.

Energy of spherical fuzzy graphs

2020 ◽  
pp. 321-332
Author(s):  
S. Yahya Mohamed ◽  
A. Mohamed Ali
Keyword(s):  
Adjacency Matrix ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Fuzzy Graph ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Fuzzy Graphs

In this paper, the notion of energy extended to spherical fuzzy graph. The adjacency matrix of a spherical fuzzy graph is defined and we compute the energy of a spherical fuzzy graph as the sum of absolute values of eigenvalues of the adjacency matrix of the spherical fuzzy graph. Also, the lower and upper bounds for the energy of spherical fuzzy graphs are obtained.

scholarly journals Relationship between Age and Value of Information for a Noisy Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 940
Author(s):  
Zijing Wang ◽  
Mihai-Alin Badiu ◽  
Justin P. Coon
Keyword(s):  
Value Of Information ◽  
Markov Models ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Source Data ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Queue Model ◽  
Selection Of

The age of information (AoI) has been widely used to quantify the information freshness in real-time status update systems. As the AoI is independent of the inherent property of the source data and the context, we introduce a mutual information-based value of information (VoI) framework for hidden Markov models. In this paper, we investigate the VoI and its relationship to the AoI for a noisy Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process. We explore the effects of correlation and noise on their relationship, and find logarithmic, exponential and linear dependencies between the two in three different regimes. This gives the formal justification for the selection of non-linear AoI functions previously reported in other works. Moreover, we study the statistical properties of the VoI in the example of a queue model, deriving its distribution functions and moments. The lower and upper bounds of the average VoI are also analysed, which can be used for the design and optimisation of freshness-aware networks. Numerical results are presented and further show that, compared with the traditional linear age and some basic non-linear age functions, the proposed VoI framework is more general and suitable for various contexts.

The Lower and Upper Bounds of Turán Number for Odd Wheels

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 919-932
Author(s):  
Byeong Moon Kim ◽  
Byung Chul Song ◽  
Woonjae Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Lower And Upper Bounds ◽  
Turán Number

scholarly journals Modelling an unconventional closed-loop deep borehole heat exchanger (DBHE): sensitivity analysis on the Newberry volcanic setting

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah R. Doran ◽  
Theo Renaud ◽  
Gioia Falcone ◽  
Lehua Pan ◽  
Patrick G. Verdin
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Heat Exchanger ◽  
Mass Flow Rate ◽  
Mass Flow ◽  
Flow Rate ◽  
Energy Flow ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Working Fluid ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Deep Borehole

AbstractAlternative (unconventional) deep geothermal designs are needed to provide a secure and efficient geothermal energy supply. An in-depth sensitivity analysis was investigated considering a deep borehole closed-loop heat exchanger (DBHE) to overcome the current limitations of deep EGS. A T2Well/EOS1 model previously calibrated on an experimental DBHE in Hawaii was adapted to the current NWG 55-29 well at the Newberry volcano site in Central Oregon. A sensitivity analysis was carried out, including parameters such as the working fluid mass flow rate, the casing and cement thermal properties, and the wellbore radii dimensions. The results conclude the highest energy flow rate to be 1.5 MW, after an annulus radii increase and an imposed mass flow rate of 5 kg/s. At 3 kg/s, the DBHE yielded an energy flow rate a factor of 3.5 lower than the NWG 55-29 conventional design. Despite this loss, the sensitivity analysis allows an assessment of the key thermodynamics within the wellbore and provides a valuable insight into how heat is lost/gained throughout the system. This analysis was performed under the assumption of subcritical conditions, and could aid the development of unconventional designs within future EGS work like the Newberry Deep Drilling Project (NDDP). Requirements for further software development are briefly discussed, which would facilitate the modelling of unconventional geothermal wells in supercritical systems to support EGS projects that could extend to deeper depths.

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