Energy Demand Projections in the 21st Century for Coastal California

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Sequera ◽  
Yanelly Molina ◽  
Jorge E. Gonzalez ◽  
Robert Bornstein
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Per Capita

Previous studies conducted by Lebassi et al. (2010) and Sequera et al. (2011) have showed a strong correlation between summer temperature and electricity demand per capita trends for the past four decades for California. Decreasing summer temperature trends in low elevation coastal California sites between 1970–2010 resulted in decreasing electricity demand for the same locations. On the other hand, increasing temperature trends in high-elevation and inland California sites for the same period showed increasing electricity demand during summers. As a consequence of an increased gradient of the concurrent sea breeze potential for the same period, the authors suggested that this increased in sea breeze was responsible for the observed coastal cooling, attributing the seabreeze increase to a counter effect of global warming. The authors also reported increasing temperatures during winter throughout California for the same period, resulting in decreasing natural gas consumption. This work extends this analysis by determining spatial and temporal trends in residential electricity and natural gas consumption using 1990 to 2009 data from the California Energy Commission. Results show yearly electricity consumption per person is lower for coastal counties than inland counties. In contrast, yearly natural gas consumption per capita is decreasing for both coastal and inland counties. Additional work includes the examination of future summer axysymmetric warming and winter homogenous warming as well as their implications on energy demands into the 21st century. Results from 16 downscaled Global Circulation Models for 2 green-house gas emissions scenarios are used to forecast future average temperatures. These projections are correlated with electricity consumption during the summer and natural gas consumption during the winter. Statistical analysis of these results is provided in order to quantify uncertainty on these forecasts.

scholarly journals Comparison of CO2 emissions reduction efficiency of household fuel consumption in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingjie Xu ◽  
Ruoyu Zhong ◽  
Yifeng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Level ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Per Capita

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the correlations among per capita gross domestic product (GDP), household fuel (natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas) consumption, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) at the regional and national level in China using data from 2003 to 2015. The results validate the EKC assumption and show that per capita GDP is positively related to CO2 emissions; per capita natural gas consumption has a negative impact on CO2 emissions; however, per capita liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption has a positive effect on CO2 emissions. Therefore, increasing natural gas consumption can effectively slow down the environmental degradation of China. Given rapid economic growth, changing the energy structure can improve the environment.

The application of trigonometric grey prediction model to average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiuping Wang ◽  
Subing Liu ◽  
Haixia Yan
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grey Prediction Model ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose Due to high efficiency and low carbon of natural gas, the consumption of natural gas is increasing rapidly, and the prediction of natural gas consumption has become the focus. The purpose of this paper is to employ a prediction technique by combining grey prediction model and trigonometric residual modification for predicting average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China. Design/methodology/approach The GM(1,1) model is utilised to obtain the tendency term, then the generalised trigonometric model is used to catch the periodic phenomenon from the residual data of GM(1,1) model for improving predicting accuracy. Findings The case verified the view of Xie and Liu: “When the value of a is less, DGM model and GM(1,1) model can substitute each other.” The combination of the GM(1,1) and the trigonometric residual modification technique can observably improve the predicting accuracy of average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China. The mean absolute percentage errors of GM(1,1) model, DGM(1,1), unbiased grey forecasting model, and TGM model in ex post testing stage (from 2013 to 2015) are 32.5510, 33.5985, 36.9980, and 5.2996 per cent, respectively. The TGM model is suitable for the prediction of average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China. Practical implications According to the historical data of average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China, the authors construct GM(1,1) model, DGM(1,1) model, unbiased grey forecasting model, and GM(1,1) model with trigonometric residual modification. The accuracy of TGM is the best. TGM helps to improve the accuracy of GM(1,1). Originality/value This paper gives a successful practical application of grey model GM(1,1) with the trigonometric residual modification, where the cyclic variations exist in the residual series. The case demonstrates the effectiveness of trigonometric grey prediction model, which is helpful to understand the modeling mechanism of trigonometric grey prediction model.

scholarly journals Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption during 1896–2043

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 607-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven A. Mauget
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Temperature Cycle ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Per Capita

AbstractUsing state-level monthly heating degree-day data, reconstructed per capita natural gas (NGr) consumption records for each state of the continental United States were calculated for 1895–2014 using linear regressions. The regressed monthly NGr values estimate the effects of twentieth- and early twenty-first-century climate variation on per capita natural gas usage, assuming a modern (1990–2013) consumption environment. Using these extended consumption records, the hypothetical effects of climate on past, current, and future natural gas (NG) use are estimated. By controlling for nonclimatic consumption effects, these extended reconstructions provide estimates of the sensitivity of NG consumption to historical climate variation, particularly long-term warming trends, occurring before the period of available consumption records. After detrending, the reconstructions are used to form improved estimates of interannual NG variation under current climate conditions. Given estimates of each state’s current consumption climatology and long-term trends in per capita consumption and current population trends, the net effect of warming and increasing population on future consumption is estimated. Significant long-term negative trends in per capita NG consumption are found in western and northeastern states and in Florida, while southeastern consumption effects reflect a multidecadal temperature cycle. Climate-related consumption effects found here are generally consistent with previous studies, with long-term trend effects limited to less than 12% and multidecadal regime effects limited to less than 9%. Given the stronger positive effects of increasing population on total state natural gas consumption, reduced per capita use associated with warming trends has a weak moderating effect on estimates of projected total consumption in 2043.

scholarly journals Energy Efficiency Benchmark in Textile Manufacturing Companies

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 331-342
Author(s):  
Linda Čerdancova ◽  
Kristiāna Dolge ◽  
Edgars Kudurs ◽  
Dagnija Blumberga
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Textile Production ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Production Company

Abstract Within the framework of the study a case study is performed, the data provided by a Latvian textile production company on their electricity and natural gas consumption, as well as production volumes over a three-year period have been analysed. The specific indicators of electricity, natural gas and CO2 emissions have been calculated and the obtained results are shown in graphs. The correlation of specific indicators with production volumes was analysed by correlation coefficient and linear regression methods. An analysis of statistical data for the calculated specific indicators over a three-year period has been performed. The obtained results show high seasonality of natural gas consumption and close connection between electricity consumption and production volumes.

scholarly journals Determining the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 322-328
Author(s):  
F. Ali ◽  
Kh. A. Khan ◽  
A. Raza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

Energy is substantial for economic development. This study aims to unveil the causal relationship and long-term association between economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan. The Granger-Causality test finds that; natural gas consumption, electricity consumption and coal consumption have uni-directional causal relationship with economic growth as (GC, EC and CC→GDP), however, GDP growth rate, natural gas consumption and coal consumption unilaterally Granger causes Inflation (GDP, GC and CC→CPI) and lastly coal consumption→natural gas consumption (GC), Electricity consumption (EC)→GC. The ARDL estimations delineate natural gas consumption and oil consumption having a positive and negative association with GDP growth rate may have significant long term impacts respectively on the the economic growth of Pakistan.

scholarly journals How Much Building Renewable Energy Is Enough? The Vertical City Weather Generator (VCWG v1.4.4)

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 882
Author(s):  
Amir A. Aliabadi ◽  
Mohsen Moradi ◽  
Rachel M. McLeod ◽  
David Calder ◽  
Robert Dernovsek
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Outdoor Environment ◽  
Global Cost ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

A challenge in the integration of renewable and alternative energy systems for buildings is the determination of the renewable energy ratio, which involves the selection and sizing of appropriate building systems. To address this need, a micro climate-weather software titled the Vertical City Weather Generator (VCWG) is further developed to include renewable and alternative energy systems and account for full two-way interaction between the building system and outdoor environment. VCWG is forced to simulate performance of a residential building in Guelph, Canada, for an entire year in 2015. Various energy options are considered and further optimized for the building to reduce natural gas consumption, electricity consumption, and cost. On an annual basis using the global cost method, and compared to a building with no such renewable or alternative energy systems, the optimized system resulted in 80.3% savings in natural gas consumption, 73.4% savings in electricity consumption, and 3% savings is annualized cost. According to this analysis, some technologies, such as photovoltaics are more favorable in the Canadian climate than other technologies. It is suggested that the building optimization process is not unique, and it depends on background climate, optimization weighing factors, and assumptions used in the economic analysis, which require further research.

EXPERIENCE, PROSPECTS AND PROBLEMS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND TURKMENISTAN IN THE FIELDOF NATURAL GAS

2019 ◽  
pp. 323-329
Author(s):  
Y. JIA
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Multilateral Cooperation ◽  
Industrial Chain ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

Since 2007, the use of natural gas in China depends on the import, and with an increase in natural gas consumption, gas imports are also constantly growing. In 2018, Chinas natural gas imports approached 100 billion cubic meters, which is 70 times more than in 2006. In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to the use of natural gas in China. Turkmenistan is Chinas main source of pipeline gas imports, and China is Turkmenistans largest exporter of natural gas. In the framework of the traditional model of oil and gas cooperation, China and Turkmenistan are facing such problems as the uniform content of cooperation, lack of close ties in the field of multilateral cooperation and slow progress in the development of the entire industrial chain. Cooperation between China and Central Asia in the field of oil and gas is increasingly affecting the nerves of other countries, except the five countries of Central Asia, but including Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Iran and other countries of the Middle East, Japan, South Korea, etc. and even the European Union and the USA. Despite the favorable trading environment for both parties, there are also problems in the domestic market of Turkmenistan and the risks of international competition.

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