The [OI] 557.7-nm Airglow Emission during El Niño/La Niña Extreme Events in Solar Cycles 23–24

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-200
Author(s):  
A. V. Mikhalev
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Airglow Emission ◽  
La Nina

scholarly journals Identificação das causas climáticas dos eventos extremos e dos impactos dos ENOS Canônico e Modoki nas macrorregiões de Alagoas

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1880-1897
Author(s):  
Djane Fonseca Da Silva ◽  
Pedro Fernandes de Souza Neto ◽  
Silvania Donato da Silva ◽  
Maria José da Silva Lima ◽  
Iara Bezerra da Silva Cavalcante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data

Anomalies of sea surface temperature that occur in some regions of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are being studied because their cause different impacts and originate in different ways, are the ENOS, Modoki and Canonical. The objective of this work is to identify the climatic causes of the extreme events that occurred in the macro-regions of Alagoas, and at the same time, to compare the effects of ENOS Canonical and Modoki and their classes on the macro-regions of Alagoas. The daily precipitation data for 21 municipalities in the State of Alagoas were obtained through the National Water Agency from 1963 to 2014. EN Modoki and low promoted an increase in rainfall in the Eastern region. EN Fortes, on the other hand, caused a decrease in rainfall in the Sertão. Canonical LN events caused a significant increase in rainfall in the three macro-regions, but the effect was better in LN Forte. During the phases of the Atlantic Dipole, the negative phase generated positive SPI across the state, and in the positive phase, there was a decrease in SPI in the East, and a negative SPI record in Sertão and Agreste. The climatic causes of the extreme events were the combination of semiannual, interannual scales, scale between 1-2 years of ENOS, scale of ENOS extended and scale of 11 years (Dipole and sunspots), potentiating the local total rainfall, and for cases of drought , your absence. It was found, through cluster analysis, similarity between the SPIs of La Niña low and La Niña Canonical, and between El Niño Canonical is linked to El Niño Forte. Mathematically, the categories of El Niño and La Niña strong and weak showed better correlations with ENOS Modoki and Canonical, suggesting a pattern for Alagoas.

scholarly journals ENSO and Extreme Rainfall Events in South America

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1589-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice M. Grimm ◽  
Renata G. Tedeschi
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The influence of the opposite phases of ENSO on the frequency of extreme rainfall events over South America is analyzed for each month of the ENSO cycle on the basis of a large set of daily station rainfall data and compared with the influence of ENSO on the monthly total rainfall. The analysis is carried out with station data and their gridded version and the results are consistent. Extreme events are defined as 3-day mean precipitation above the 90th percentile. The mean frequencies of extreme events are determined for each month and for each category of year (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral), and the differences between El Niño and neutral years and La Niña and neutral years are computed. Changes in the mean intensity of extreme events are also investigated. Significant ENSO signals in the frequency of extreme events are found over extensive regions of South America during different periods of the ENSO cycle. Although ENSO-related changes in intensity show less significance and spatial coherence, there are some robust changes in several regions, especially in southeastern South America. The ENSO-related changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events are generally coherent with changes in total monthly rainfall quantities. However, significant changes in extremes are much more extensive than the corresponding changes in monthly rainfall because the highest sensitivity to ENSO seems to be in the extreme range of daily precipitation. This is important, since the most dramatic consequences of climate variability result from changes in extreme events. The pattern of frequency changes produced by El Niño and La Niña episodes with respect to neutral years is roughly symmetric, but there are several examples of nonlinearity in the ENSO regional teleconnections.

scholarly journals Frequência e Intensidade Pluviométrica e a Correlação com El Niño-Oscilação Sul na Mesorregião Noroeste Paranaense, Brasil

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1537
Author(s):  
Nathan Felipe da Silva Caldana ◽  
Luiz Gustavo Batista Ferreira ◽  
Marcelo Augusto De Aguiar e Silva
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Agricultural Planning ◽  
Daily Time

O clima do planeta está mudando em frequência e magnitude de seus eventos atmosféricos. As atividades agrícolas são altamente dependentes do clima. Mesmo com avanços da tecnologia e da pesquisa, a variabilidade da produção no estado do Paraná é afetada pelas variáveis climáticas, sendo a precipitação o elemento mais importante para as regiões de clima tropical e subtropical. Para o planejamento agrícola e para as demais atividades humanas, conhecer o clima é importante para minimizar os riscos das atividades e garantir resultados satisfatórios. A Mesorregião Noroeste Paranaense é a área mais quente e seca do Estado do Paraná carecendo de estudos que contribuam para a tomada de decisão na região. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a variabilidade pluviométrica, a intensidade e a frequência da precipitação na MRNOP. Para isso utilizou-se as escalas temporais anual, mensal e diária com o recorte temporal de 1976 a 2018. Por meio dos resultados, identificou-se grande discrepância nas alturas pluviométricas anuais, mensais e diárias, com parte expressiva dos eventos extremos e maiores alturas de precipitação ocorrendo em períodos de El Niño e neutralidade, enquanto os períodos secos predominam em condições de La Niña. Rainfall Frequency And Intensity And Relation With El Niño-Southern Oscilation In The Northwest Mesoregion Of Parana State, BrazilA B S T R A C TThe planet's climate is changing in frequency and magnitude of its atmospheric events. Agricultural activities are highly climate dependent. Even with advances in technology and research, agricultural production is affected by climatic variables. For agricultural planning and for other human activities, knowing the climate is important to minimize the risks of activities and ensure satisfactory results. The northwest Paraná mesoregion is the warmest and driest area in the State of Paraná and lacks studies that contribute to decision making in the region. Therefore, the objective of this work was to analyze rainfall variability, intensity and frequency of precipitation in MRNOP, as well as assessing the association between rainfall totals and extremes with the occurrence of the El Niño-Southern Oscilation – ENSO. variability mode. The annual, monthly and daily time scales were used from 1976 to 2018. Thematic maps were developed with interpolation and regressions and graphs of box graphics for an analysis of the variability. A large discrepancy was identified at annual, monthly and daily rainfall heights, with significant part of extreme events and higher precipitation heights occurring in El Niño periods and neutrality, while dry periods predominate under La Niña conditions.Keywords: climate risk, extreme events; sea surface temperature.

ANALISIS DAERAH RAWAN KEKERINGAN LAHAN JAGUNG BERDASARKAN IKLIM OLDEMAN DAN KETERSEDIAN AIR TANAH DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR SAAT PERIODE EL NINO DAN LA NINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1219
Author(s):  
Oki Adrianto ◽  
Sudirman Sudirman ◽  
Suwandi Suwandi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Perekonomian Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur secara sektoral masih didominasi sektor pertanian.Tanaman jagung menjadi salah satu produksi tanaman pangan terbesar berdasarkan data dari Dinas Pertanian dan Perkebunan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur tahun 2015. Peningkatan produksi pertanian dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai strategi adaptasi dan upaya penanganan bencana, salah satu upaya tersebut adalah dengan penyediaan informasi iklim terkait penentuan daerah-daerah rawan kekeringan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui sebaran wilayah rawan kekeringan lahan jagung bulanan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur saat kondisi El Nino dan La Nina dengan periodeisasi bulanan januari hingga desember. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan rata rata bulanan di 19 pos hujan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dan suhu udara rata-rata bulanan dihitung menggunakan pendekatan teori Brack dengan titik referensi Stasiun Klimatologi Lasiana Kupang. Periode dari masing-masing data yang digunakan adalah dari tahun 1991 dan 1997 digunakan sebagai tahun El Nino dan tahun 1999 dan 2010 digunakan sebagai tahun La Nina. Metode yang digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat rawan kekeringan dengan menggunakan pembobotan berdasarkan penjumlahan bobot tipe iklim Oldeman dan bobot ketersediaan air tanah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebaran daerah kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timurpada tahun el nino lebih luas dibandingkan tahun la nina.

A Influência dos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña sobre a dinâmica climática da região Amazônica

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. e2018014
Author(s):  
Samya de Freitas MOREIRA ◽  
Cleiciane Silva da CONCEIÇÃO ◽  
Milla Cristina Santos da CRUZ ◽  
Antônio PEREIRA JÚNIOR
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Caracterização climática da temperatura do ar em Veranópolis, Rio Grande do Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Heemann Junges
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina

Estudos locais de caraterização e variabilidade climática são fundamentais para geração de informações mais adaptadas às atividades agrícolas desenvolvidas em um município ou região. O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar climaticamente e analisar a influência de eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) na série 1956-2015 de temperatura do ar de Veranópolis, RS. Para caracterização climática foram estabelecidas estatísticas descritivas das temperaturas do ar máximas, mínimas e médias mensais, estacional e anual na série e normal climatológica padrão 1961- 1990. Para identificação de diferenças entre estações e influência de eventos ENOS, os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e teste de Duncan. Os resultados indicaram que a temperatura média anual é de 17,3ºC, variando entre 12,7ºC (julho) e 21,8ºC (janeiro). O clima é do tipo Cfb, de acordo com a classificação climática de Köppen e TE (temperado) na classificação climática do Estado. Temperaturas mínimas médias mensais inferiores a 10ºC ocorrem de maio a setembro, período de maior variabilidade interanual das temperaturas máximas (desvio padrão entre 1,5º e 1,8ºC), mínimas (1,6-1,8ºC) e médias mensais (1,4-1,7ºC). Anos de La Niña possuem temperaturas médias estacionais inferiores as de El Niño, embora diferenciação em relação a neutros ocorra somente para temperaturas mínimas na primavera e máximas no outono.

Rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, não difere entre eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Income Data ◽  
The Relationship

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.

Atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover on the Great Lakes, 1963–2011

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 421-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuezhi Bai ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
La Nina

Atmospheric teleconnection circulation patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover over the Great Lakes are investigated using the composite analysis of lake ice data and National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for the period 1963–2011. The teleconnection pattern associated with the severe ice cover is the combination of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative phase of Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern, while the pattern associated with the mild ice cover is the combination of a positive PNA (or an El Niño) and a positive phase of the NAO/AO. These two extreme ice conditions are associated with the North American ridge–trough variations. The intensified ridge–trough system produces a strong northwest-to-southeast tilted ridge and trough and increases the anomalous northwesterly wind, advecting cold, dry Arctic air to the Great Lakes. The weakened ridge–trough system produces a flattened ridge and trough, and promotes a climatological westerly wind, advecting warm, dry air from western North America to the Great Lakes. Although ice cover for all the individual lakes responds roughly linearly and symmetrically to both phases of the NAO/AO, and roughly nonlinearly and asymmetrically to El Niño and La Niña events, the overall ice cover response to individual NAO/AO or Niño3.4 index is not statistically significant. The combined NAO/AO and Niño3.4 indices can be used to reliably project severe ice cover during the simultaneous –NAO/AO and La Niña events, and mild ice cover during the simultaneous +NAO/AO and El Niño events.

scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Price Movements

We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.

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