scholarly journals Covid-19: Excess deaths vary widely across England and Wales, show data

BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m4500
Author(s):  
Gareth Iacobucci
Keyword(s):  
England And Wales ◽  
Excess Deaths

scholarly journals Deaths from Covid-19: Who are the forgotten victims?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieran F. Docherty ◽  
Jawad H Butt ◽  
Rudolf A. de Boer ◽  
Pooja Dewan ◽  
Lars Køber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
New York State ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Clinical Activity ◽  
National Agency ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
York State ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractBackgroundWith the spreading global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) there has been disruption to normal clinical activity in response to the increased demand on health services. There are reports of a reduction in non-Covid-19 emergency presentations. Consequentially, there are concerns that deaths from non-Covid-19 causes could increase. We examined recent reported population-based mortality rates, compared with expected rates, and compared any excess in deaths with the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19.MethodsNational agency and death registration reports were searched for numbers of deaths attributed to Covid-19 and overall mortality that had been publicly reported by 22 April 2020. Data on the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19, the total number of deaths registered in the population and the historical average over at least 3 years were collected. Data were available for 3 Northern European countries (England & Wales, Scotland and the Netherlands) and New York State, United States of America.FindingsThere was an increase in observed, compared with expected, mortality in Scotland (+73%), England and Wales (+49%), the Netherlands (+65%) and New York state (+34%). Of these deaths, only 65% in Scotland, 68 % in England and Wales, 49% in the Netherlands and 73% in New York state were attributed to Covid-19 leaving a number of excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19.InterpretationA substantial proportion of excess deaths observed during the current COVID-19 pandemic are not attributed to COVID-19 and may represent an excess of deaths due to other causes.FundingNone

Audit finds 24 000 excess deaths among people with diabetes in England and Wales

BMJ ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 345 (dec10 1) ◽  
pp. e8406-e8406
Author(s):  
Z. Kmietowicz
Keyword(s):  
England And Wales ◽  
Excess Deaths

scholarly journals Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-215505
Author(s):  
Jose Manuel Aburto ◽  
Ridhi Kashyap ◽  
Jonas Schöley ◽  
Colin Angus ◽  
John Ermisch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Level ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

BackgroundDeaths directly linked to COVID-19 infection may be misclassified, and the pandemic may have indirectly affected other causes of death. To overcome these measurement challenges, we estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality from week 10 of 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was registered, to week 47 ending 20 November 2020 in England and Wales through an analysis of excess mortality.MethodsWe estimated age and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality with a systematic comparison of four different models using data from the Office for National Statistics. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the SD in age at death.ResultsThere have been 57 419 (95% prediction interval: 54 197, 60 752) excess deaths in the first 47 weeks of 2020, 55% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 0.9 and 1.2 years for women and men relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period by 5 months for both sexes.ConclusionQuantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. Whether mortality will return to—or even fall below—the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place.

scholarly journals Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the impact of the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 17 industrialised countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasilis Kontis ◽  
James E Bennett ◽  
Theo Rashid ◽  
Robbie M Parks ◽  
Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Health And Social Care ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Industrialised Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

The Covid-19 pandemic affects mortality directly through infection as well as through changes in the social, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. The impacts on mortality are likely to vary across countries in magnitude, timing, and age and sex composition. Here, we applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data, by age group and sex, to consistently and comparably estimate the impacts of the first phase of the pandemic on all-cause mortality for 17 industrialised countries. The models accounted for factors that affect death rates including seasonality, temperature, and public holidays, as well as for medium-long-term secular trends and the dependency of death rates in each week on those in preceding week(s). From mid-February through the end of May 2020, an estimated 202,900 (95% credible interval 179,400-224,900) more people died in these 17 countries than would have had the pandemic not taken place. Nearly three quarters of these excess deaths occurred in England and Wales, Italy and Spain, where less than half of the total population of these countries live. When all-cause mortality is considered, the total number of deaths, deaths per 100,000 people, and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. Further, in many countries, the balance of excess deaths changed from male-dominated early in the pandemic to being equal or female-dominated later on. Taken over the entire first phase of the pandemic, there was no detectable rise in all-cause mortality in New Zealand, Bulgaria, Hungary, Norway, Denmark and Finland and for women in Austria and Switzerland (posterior probability of an increase in deaths <90%). Women in Portugal and men in Austria experienced relatively small increases in all-cause mortality, with posterior probabilities of 90-99%. For men in Switzerland and Portugal, and both sexes in the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Belgium, Italy, Scotland, Spain and England and Wales, all-cause mortality increased as a result of the pandemic with a posterior probability >99%. After accounting for population size, England and Wales and Spain experienced the highest death toll, nearly 100 deaths per 100,000 people; they also had the largest relative (percent) increase in deaths (37% (95% credible interval 30-44) in England and Wales; 38% (31-44) in Spain). New Zealand, Bulgaria, Hungary, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced changes in deaths that ranged from possible slight declines to increases of no more than 5%. The large impact in England and Wales stems partly from having experienced (together with Spain) the highest weekly increases in deaths, more than doubling in some weeks, and having had (together with Sweden) the longest duration when deaths exceeded levels that would be expected in the absence of the pandemic. The heterogeneous magnitude and character of the excess deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic (e.g., timing, extent and adherence to lockdowns and other social distancing measures; effectiveness of test, trace and isolate mechanisms), and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system (e.g., effective facility and community care pathways; minimising spread of infection within hospitals and care homes, and between them and the community).

scholarly journals Estimating the burden of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: A population-level analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Manuel Aburto ◽  
Ridhi Kashyap ◽  
Jonas Schöley ◽  
Colin Angus ◽  
John Ermisch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Health ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age And Sex ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractBackgroundDeaths directly linked to COVID-19 infection may be misclassified, and the pandemic may have indirectly affected other causes of death. To overcome these measurement challenges, we estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality from week 10, when the first COVID-19 death was registered, to week 47 ending November 20, 2020 in England and Wales through an analysis of excess mortality.MethodsWe estimated age and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality with a systematic comparison of four different models using data from the Office for National Statistics. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the standard deviation in age at death.ResultsThere have been 57,419 (95% Prediction Interval: 54,197, 60,752) excess deaths in the first 47 weeks of 2020, 55% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 0.9 and 1.2 years for females and males relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period by five months for both sexes.ConclusionQuantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provides a more comprehensive picture of the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. Whether mortality will return to -or even fall below-the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place.Summary boxesWhat is already known on this topicCOVID-19 related deaths may be misclassified thereby inaccurately estimating the full impact of the pandemic on mortality. The pandemic may also have indirect effects on other causes due to changed behaviours, as well as the social and economic consequences resulting from its management. Excess mortality, the difference between observed deaths and what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic, is a useful metric to quantify the overall impact of the pandemic on mortality and population health. Life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality assess the cumulative impact of the pandemic on population health.What this study addsWe examine death registration data from the Office for National Statistics from 2010 to week 47 (ending on November 20) in 2020 to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in England and Wales thus far. We estimate excess mortality risk by age and sex, and quantify the impact of excess mortality risk on excess deaths, life expectancy and lifespan inequality. During weeks 10 through 47 of 2020, elevated mortality rates resulted in 57,419 additional deaths compared with baseline mortality. Life expectancy at birth for females and males over the 47 weeks of 2020 was 82.6 and 78.7 years, with 0.9 and 1.2 years of life lost relative to the year 2019. Lifespan inequality, a measure of the spread or variation in ages at death, declined due to the increase of mortality at older ages.

Does the healthcare system help or hinder our health?

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-118
Author(s):  
Davies and
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Set Up ◽  
System Today ◽  
Excess Deaths

This chapter examines the problems inherent in the healthcare system today, and explores what a health system that copes with illness and also helps us to live well for longer might look like. Whether the healthcare system helps or hinders our health may seem a silly question. After all, the NHS has been crucial in saving the lives of tens of thousands of people during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic; without it the death toll would have been many times higher. But is our healthcare system helping us to be and remain healthy in the long term? Despite the efforts of the health and care workforce, there were more than 60,000 excess deaths in England and Wales in the three months from March to May 2020. The NHS was not set up, nor was it resilient enough, to cope with normal care and COVID-19 together.

scholarly journals Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries

BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazrul Islam ◽  
Vladimir M Shkolnikov ◽  
Rolando J Acosta ◽  
Ilya Klimkin ◽  
Ichiro Kawachi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
High Income ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Age And Sex ◽  
Excess Deaths

Abstract Objective To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. Design Time series study of high income countries. Setting Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. Participants Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Interventions Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. Main outcome measures Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. Results An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (−2500, −2900 to −2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. Conclusion Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document