Novel bleeding prediction model in atrial fibrillation patients on new oral anticoagulants

Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. heartjnl-2021-319702
Author(s):  
Ofra Barnett-Griness ◽  
Nili Stein ◽  
Antonio Kotler ◽  
Walid Saliba ◽  
Naomi Gronich

ObjectiveClinical models such as the HAS-BLED (standing for Hypertension, Abnormal liver/renal function, Stroke history, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile INR, Elderly, Drug/alcohol usage) were developed to predict risk of major bleeding on vitamin K antagonists/antiplatelet therapy. We aimed to develop a model that will improve the ability to predict major bleeding events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with new oral anticoagulants (NOACs).MethodsClalit Health Services is the largest of four integrated healthcare organisations in Israel, which insures 4.7 million patients (53% of the population). We identified in Clalit Health Services all patients with AF, new users of an NOAC (2013–2017), and followed them until first occurrence of a major bleeding event, death, switch to another oral anticoagulant, 30 days after discontinuation of NOAC or end of follow-up (31 December 2019). Importance of the candidate model variables was estimated by inclusion frequencies across forward selection algorithm applied to 50 bootstrap samples. Then, backward selection algorithm using the modified Bayesian Information Criterion for competing risks was applied to select predictors for the final model.Results47 623 patients with AF prescribed NOAC were studied. 28 055 patients with AF, initiators of apixaban (mean age 78.7, SD 9.0), were included in the first phase and had 662 major bleeding events. Nine variables were selected for inclusion in a final points-based risk-scoring system: male sex, anaemia, thrombocytopaenia (<99×103/µL), concurrent antiplatelet therapy, hypertension, prior major bleeding, risk factors for a fall, low cholesterol level and low estimated glomerular filtration rate, with apparent area-under-curve (AUC) of 0.6546. Applicability of the model was then shown for 14 118 and 5450 patients with AF, initiators of dabigatran and rivaroxaban, where the score achieved c indices of 0.62 and 0.61, respectively.ConclusionsWe present a novel and simple risk score for prediction of major bleeding in patients with non-valvular AF treated with NOACs. Validation in additional cohorts is warranted.

Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A Steinberg ◽  
DaJuanicia N Simon ◽  
Laine Thomas ◽  
Jack Ansell ◽  
Gregg C Fonarow ◽  
...  

Background: Non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are effective at preventing stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, little is known about the frequency of major bleeds on NOACs and how these events are managed in clinical practice. Methods: We assessed the rates, management, and outcomes of ISTH major bleeding events among AF patients in the ORBIT-AF II registry (mean follow-up 213 days). Results: Overall, 103 patients experienced 110 major bleeding events during follow-up n=90/4986 (1.8%) on NOAC, and n=20/1320 (1.5%) on warfarin. Patients with bleeding events on NOAC were slightly younger than those on warfarin (median age 76 vs. 80; p=0.2). Among mutually-exclusive bleeding types, intracranial bleeding was more common in warfarin treated patients than NOAC-treated (15% vs 6.7%), whereas GI bleeding was more common on NOACs (56% vs. 40%, overall p=0.1 for bleeding type). Management of bleeding differed by anticoagulation type: blood products and reversal agents were more commonly used in patients on warfarin (Table). No patient received prothrombin complexes, recombinant factor VIIa, aminocaproic acid, tranexamic acid, aprotinin, or desmopressin. Out of 90 major bleeding events in NOAC patients, only 1 was fatal (1%). Within 30 days following bleeding, there were no strokes and 1 TIA (NOAC). Following a major bleed, the recurrent bleeding rate in NOAC patients in the next 30-days was 4% and the death rate was 4%. Conclusions: Rates of major bleeding with NOACs in clinical practice are comparable to those reported in clinical trials. Compared with warfarin, bleeding among NOAC users was less likely intracranial and more likely to be GI. Management of bleeding in the setting of NOAC rarely includes reversal agents.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G Montrasio ◽  
M Coslovsky ◽  
A Wiencierz ◽  
C Baumgartner ◽  
N Rodondi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have a similar efficacy in terms of stroke and mortality reduction as compared to Vitamin K-Antagonists (VKAs) and improved safety with regards to intracranial haemorrhage in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Dose of DOACs needs to be adjusted according to age, weight, renal function and concomitant medication. Yet, off-label dosages have been reported in 11 - 45% of patients (on average 20%). Purpose To assess the prevalence of inappropriate DOAC-dosing according to the official prescribing information in two large prospective Swiss AF cohorts (Swiss-AF and BEAT-AF) and to evaluate its correlation with adverse clinical outcomes. Methods All 3267 patients taking oral anticoagulants were stratified at baseline as receiving DOACs (adequately dosed, under- or overdosed) or VKAs. Appropriateness of DOAC dosing was assessed based on age (≥80 years), weight (≤60kg) and renal function (serum creatinine ≥133μmol/l [apixaban]; creatinine clearence ≤50ml/min [all other DOACs]). Clinical outcomes were collected during a median follow-up of 2.96 years. Major adverse clinical events (MACE) consisted of a combination of myocardial infarction, cardiac death, ischemic stroke and systemic embolism. Safety was assessed by occurrence of any bleeding event. Results 1902 patients (58%) were on VKAs and 1365 on DOACs (42%). In the DOAC group, 1149 patients received a dose consistent with drug labelling (84%), 133 (10%) received an inappropriately high and 83 (6%) an inappropriately low dose. Overdosed patients were older than those adequately treated and more likely female, had a lower BMI and a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (4 vs. 3 points) (p<0.001 for all). Underdosed patients were more likely to have concomitant antiplatelet therapy (p<0.001). Both off-label groups were more likely to have a history of coronary artery disease, heart failure and chronic kidney disease (p<0.001). Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidence rates for the first occurrence of MACE or bleedings are provided in Figure 1. Overdosed patients had an almost two-fold higher risk of bleeding (9.0 vs. 5.0 events per 100 patient-years compared to correctly dosed DOACs and to VKAs) and a higher rate of MACE (5.1 vs. 2.3 events per 100 patient years compared to correctly dosed DOACs and 5.1 vs. 3.4 compared to VKAs). Underdosing did not seem to be associated with a relevant increase in ischemic or bleeding events as compared to correctly dosed DOACs and VKAs (see Figure 1). Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier incidence curves Conclusion Inadequate DOACs dosing was found in 1 in 6 patients and correlated with a higher burden of comorbidities at baseline. Underdosing correlated with concomitant antiplatelet therapy. Overdosing was associated with adverse clinical outcome for ischemic and bleeding events.


Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Murphy ◽  
William Maddox ◽  
Stan Nahman ◽  
Matthew Diamond ◽  
Robert Sorrentino ◽  
...  

Introduction: Hemodialysis patients (HD pts) with atrial fibrillation (AF) have increased risk of stroke. The HASBLED (Hypertension (HTN), Abnl Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding Hx, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol) risk score predicts bleeding in the general AF population. It is unknown whether the HASBLED score can be applied to HD pts who are at additional bleeding risk due to uremic platelet dysfunction and the regular use of heparin. Hypothesis: To address this question, we queried the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) for bleeding events in HD pts with AF, and correlated those events with a modified HASBLED (mHASBLED) score. Methods: All incident HD pts with AF from the USRDS for 2006-2010 were queried for major bleeding events and mHASBLED parameters using ICD-9 diagnosis codes and data from CMS form 2728. For mHASBLED, the HTN parameter was defined as "HTN as the cause of renal failure", and labile INR as > 16 INRs/yr, but all other parameters could be derived from the dataset. Logistic regression (LR) analysis was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) for the mHASBLED score to predict major bleeding events. Results: 74,631 HD pts had AF, and 9.8% had a major bleeding event (GI bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke). By univariate analysis, those who bled were more likely to be elderly, have an underlying cause of renal disease due to HTN, prior bleeding event, hepatitis C, labile INR, and be on oral anticoagulants. By LR, variables with the greatest impact on bleeding were HTN as a cause of underlying renal disease, prior bleeding history, and labile INR (OR of 1.10, 2.20 and 2.24, respectively). The OR for bleeding events increased by 1.28 for each unit increase in mHASBLED. Older age, prior stroke, abnormal renal or liver function, and drug use had the least effect. Note that the lowest possible score in this cohort is 1, given that all patients had renal failure. Conclusions: In HD pts with AF, the mHASBLED predicts major bleeding events. The universal presence of renal disease, and the lack of specific clinical data from the USRDS may limit the clinical precision of a given score, however mHASBLED may remain a useful indicator of bleeding risk in this population.


Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 112 (11) ◽  
pp. 33-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey I. Weitz ◽  
Stuart J. Connolly ◽  
Satoshi Kunitada ◽  
James Jin ◽  
Indravadan Patel

Abstract Introduction : The primary objective of this phase II study was to assess the safety of different dose regimens of DU-176b, an oral direct factor Xa inhibitor, in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods : This was a randomized, parallel group, multicenter, multinational, double-blind DU-176b and open-label warfarin safety study in patients with AF (CHADS2 index ≥ 2). Patients were randomly assigned to receive either one of four fixed dose regimens of DU-176b (30 mg qd, 30 mg bid, 60 mg qd or 60 mg bid) or warfarin dose-adjusted to a target international normalized ratio (INR) of 2.0–3.0. for 12 weeks. Investigators, sponsor and study subjects were blinded to DU-176b dose but not to the identity of DU-176b vs. warfarin. Investigators adjusted warfarin doses based on INR values obtained in local laboratories. The INR was determined weekly for 4 weeks and every two weeks thereafter. The primary outcomes were the occurrence of centrally adjudicated major and/or clinically relevant non-major bleeding event, and elevated liver enzymes and/or bilirubin. Secondary outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a composite of stroke, systemic embolism, acute myocardial infarction, hospitalizations due to cardiovascular condition or cardiovascular death, as well as all other adverse events, including all bleeding events. Results : A total of 1,146 patients were randomized. There were no clinically relevant differences between treatment groups with respect to the demographic data and baseline characteristics. Mean age was 65±8.7 years, 63.3% of patients had a CHADS2 index of 2 and 64.40% were warfarin naïve. The DU-176b 60 mg bid treatment arm was prematurely terminated during the study based on a recommendation by the Independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC). A total of 180 patients were randomized to this group at the time. The incidence of major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding events was significantly higher in both the DU-176b 60 mg bid and 30 mg bid groups than in those given warfarin. The incidence of major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding events in the DU-176b 30 mg qd and 60 mg qd groups was similar to that in warfarin-treated patients. The time in therapeutic range (TTR) for warfarin-experienced patients was 50.1% and for warfarin naïve patients was 41.8%. There were no significant differences in the number (%) of subjects with persistently elevated ALT, AST, or bilirubin values across the treatment groups. The incidence of stroke was similar across treatment groups (Table). DU-176b 30 mg qd N=235 DU-176b 60 mg qd N=234 DU-176b 30 mg bid N=244 DU-176b 60 mg bid N=180 Warfarin qd N=250 Bleeding, n (%) (95% CI) Major+CR non-major 7 (3.0) (1.2–6.0) 11 (4.7) (2.4–8.3) 19 (7.8) (4.8–11.9)a 19 (10.6) (6.5–16.0)b 8 (3.2) (1.4–6.2) Major 0 (0) (0–1.6) 1 (0.4) (0–2.4) 5 (2.0) (0.7–4.7) 6 (3.3) (1.2–7.1)a 1 (0.4) (0–2.2) All 13 (5.5) (3.0–9.3) 19 (8.1) (5.0–12.4) 32 (13.1) (9.1–18.0) 33 (18.3) (13.0–24.8)b 20 (8.0) (5.0–12.1) Stroke, n (%) (95% CI) 1 (0.4) (0–2.3) 1 (0.4) (0–2.4) 2 (0.8) (0.1–2.9) 2 (1.1) (0.1–4.0) 4 (1.6) (0.4–4.0) Conclusions : DU-176b 30 mg qd and 60 mg qd dose regimens had a safety profile similar to warfarin in patients with AF. Patients treated with the DU-176b 30 mg bid or 60 mg bid regimens had more bleeding events than occurred with warfarin. These results suggest that the DU-176b 30 mg qd or 60 mg qd regimens are safe and well tolerated. A Phase III trial is needed to determine whether DU-176b will provide a suitable replacement for warfarin in AF patients. CR, clinically relevant. aP&lt;0.05, bP=0.002 to warfarin.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manvikram Singh Gill

Introduction: Warfarin is widely utilized in patients with Atrial Fibrillation (AF) in Malaysia. However, risk of haemorrhage which necessitates monitoring of International Normalised Ratio (INR) and extensive interaction which varies across ethnicity supports the use of Direct Oral Anticoagulants (DOACS). This study is to assess whether demographic data, medical history, and medication history are associated with the risk of major bleeding events. Methodology: Data was collected retrospectively in a case-controlled environment from the Electronic Medical Record (EMR) database. These patients were attending Medical Out-patient Department (MOPD) clinic, Tuanku Mizan Armed Forces Hospital (TMAFH) from 2nd to 31st January 2018. Results: Among 60 AF patients reviewed, 83% had labile INR range and 35% reported to have 1 or more bleeding event. It is found there is significant association (p<0.05) for variables of sex, history of stroke, and NSAID usage with the outcome. Discussion: Majority of patients with major bleeding events are Chinese males. The sample size of the current study is too small to be able to arrive at any conclusive results. Conclusion: Further studies with bigger sample size are needed among Malaysian Chinese male population. MOPD should establish a warfarin Medication Therapy Adherence Clinic (MTAC) to optimise pharmaceutical care.


2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Semira Abdi Beshir ◽  
Lok Bin Yap ◽  
Szyuin Sim ◽  
Kok Han Chee ◽  
Yoke Lin Lo

Purpose: To assess the predicted rate and the factors associated with bleeding events among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) receiving dabigatran therapy. Methods: This retrospective cohort study includes adult patients of two tertiary hospitals in Malaysia. Potential study subjects were identified using pharmacy supply database or novel oral anticoagulant (NOAC) registry. Demographics, clinical data and laboratory test results were extracted from the medical records of the patients or electronic databases. The main outcome measure is the occurrence of a bleeding event. Bleeding events were classified into major bleeding, clinically relevant non-major bleeding, or minor bleeding, according to the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria. We consider clinically relevant non-major bleeding events or major bleeding events as clinically relevant bleeding events. An occurrence of any bleeding event was recorded from the initiation of NOAC therapy until the death of a patient, or the date of permanent discontinuation of NOAC use, or the last day of data collection. The predicted rate of dabigatran-induced bleeding events per 100 patient-years was estimated. Results: During a median follow-up period of 18 months, 73 patients experienced 90 bleeding events. Among these patients, 25 including 4 fatal cases, experienced major bleeding events. The predicted rate per 100 patient-years of follow-up of any bleeding events was 9.0 [95% CI 6.9 to 11.1]; clinically relevant bleeding events 6.0 [95% CI 4.8 to 8.3], and major bleeding events 3.0 [95% CI 1.9 to 4.2]. The independent risk factor for clinically relevant bleeding events is prior bleeding. While prior bleeding or congestive heart failure is linked with major bleeding events. Conclusions: The predicted rate for dabigatran-induced major bleeding episodes is low but these adverse events carry a high fatality risk. Preventive measures should target older patients who have prior bleeding or congestive heart failure. This article is open to POST-PUBLICATION REVIEW. Registered readers (see “For Readers”) may comment by clicking on ABSTRACT on the issue’s contents page.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 573
Author(s):  
Raffaele De Caterina ◽  
Young-Hoon Kim ◽  
Yukihiro Koretsune ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wang ◽  
Takeshi Yamashita ◽  
...  

Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants such as edoxaban are the standard of care for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The Global Edoxaban Treatment in routiNe clinical prActice (ETNA)-AF program integrates prospective, observational, noninterventional regional studies from Europe, Japan, and other Asian countries, collecting data on patient characteristics and clinical outcomes in unselected patients treated with edoxaban for stroke prevention in AF. Overall, 26,823 patients completed a 1-year follow-up and were treated with edoxaban; either 60 or 30 mg once daily. The majority (82.6%) of patients received the recommended doses according to the local label. At baseline, the median (interquartile range) age was 75 (68, 80) years, the CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.0 (2.0, 4.0), and the hypertension, abnormal renal and liver function, stroke, bleeding, labile international normalized ratio, elderly, drugs, or alcohol (HAS-BLED) score was 2.0 (2.0, 3.0). At one year, there were 273 (1.12%/year) major bleeding events, including 75 (0.31%/year) intracranial hemorrhages and 140 (0.57%/year) major gastrointestinal (GI) bleeds. There were 214 ischemic strokes (0.87%/year). Mortality was 3.03%/year (745 deaths), and cardiovascular mortality accounted for 40% of all deaths (1.22%/year, 299 cardiovascular deaths). In conclusion, stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, and other major bleeding events were low in patients with AF treated with edoxaban in routine care. Even on anticoagulation, cardiovascular death remained common.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Conti ◽  
I.C Bogazzi ◽  
M Mazzucchelli ◽  
A Covelli ◽  
D Molesti ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective To search for rates of major bleeding events in patients (pts) with age ≥80 or ≥90 years (y.) with ongoing anticoagulants referred to hospital. Methods Patients complaining any bleeding events were submitted to propensity score matching for major bleeding and stratified according to age ≥80 or ≥90 y. and warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Setting A General Hospital, northwest Tuscany, five-year survey, 385,650 visits; catchment area 197,722 inhabitants, of whom 18,373 on warfarin and 14,808 on DOACs. Out of DOACs, dabigatran and rivaroxaban were available in the catchment area since 5 y., apixaban 4 y. and edoxaban 3 y; 5,553 pts received rivaroxaban, 4,602 dabigatran, 3,147 apixaban and 1,506 edoxaban. Endpoint Primary endpoint was one-week death, and incidence of major bleeding. Results Out of 7,474 pts considered, 2504 (33.5%) pts were older than 80 y., of whom 518 (6.8%) were older than 90 y; they were enrolled in the study. Overall, 253 (10.1%) showed history of stroke/TIA, 578 (22.9%) atrial fibrillation, 277 (11.1%) cancer, 177 (7.0%) congestive heart failure, 33 (1.3%) pulmonary thromboembolism. Of these 7,474 pts 1,040 (41.5%) showed major bleeding: 621 (24.8%) were gastrointestinal of which 258 (10.3%) of the upper tract and 363 (14.5%) of the lower tract; 794 (31.7%) were brain haemorrhage; the remaining patients showed other bleeding. Overall, 435 (5.8%) pts needed reversal anticoagulation, 325 (4.4%) red blood cell pack, and 2879 (38.5%) admission. Eventually, 127 pts have been readmitted to the hospital for ischemic stroke and 499 for new bleeding event. CHA2D2VASc-score was 2.5±1.5 and Charlston Comorbidity Index was 3.4±2.3. Out of 2,504 patients older than 80 y., 367 (14,7%) received anticoagulants (including heparin) of which 134 (5.4%) received warfarin versus 63 (2.5%) DOACs (p&lt;0.001); 24 dabigatran, 19 rivaroxaban, 17 apixaban, and 3 edoxaban. Overall 88 (3.5%) needed reversal anticoagulation, 128 pts (5.1%) red blood cell pack, and 825 (32.9%) pts admission. One-week mortality rate as follows: anticoagulants 35 (1.4%) versus DOACs 6 (0.2%), p&lt;0.001; dabigatran 0, rivaroxaban 2, apixaban 2, edoxaban 2. Out of 518 patients older than 90 y., 98 (18.9%) received anticoagulants (including heparin) of whom 44 (8.5%) received warfarin; 11 (2.1%) DOACs (p&lt;0.001); 4 dabigatran, 2 rivaroxaban, 4 apixaban, and 1 edoxaban. Overall 24 (4.6%) needed reversal anticoagulation, 50 (9.7%) red blood cell pack, and 203 (39.2%) admission. One-week mortality rate as follows: anticoagulants 10 (1.9%) versus DOACs 1 (0.2%), p&lt;0.001; dabigatran 0, rivaroxaban 0, apixaban 1 (0.2%), edoxaban 0. Conclusion Patients of 80 y. and even 90 y. or older, with ongoing warfarin, showed higher percentage of major bleeding events and mortality rate versus DOACs. Within DOACs, edoxaban was more likely to show lower rate of major bleeding events, without differences in death rate. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


Author(s):  
Alexandra Jayne Nelson ◽  
Brian W Johnston ◽  
Alicia Achiaa Charlotte Waite ◽  
Gedeon Lemma ◽  
Ingeborg Dorothea Welters

Background. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia in critically ill patients. There is a paucity of data assessing the impact of anticoagulation strategies on clinical outcomes for general critical care patients with AF. Our aim was to assess the existing literature to evaluate the effectiveness of anticoagulation strategies used in critical care for AF. Methodology. A systematic literature search was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL and PubMed databases. Studies reporting anticoagulation strategies for AF in adults admitted to a general critical care setting were assessed for inclusion. Results. Four studies were selected for data extraction. A total of 44087 patients were identified with AF, of which 17.8-49.4% received anticoagulation. The reported incidence of thromboembolic events was 0-1.4% for anticoagulated patients, and 0-1.3% in non-anticoagulated patients. Major bleeding events were reported in three studies and occurred in 7.2-8.6% of the anticoagulated patients and up to 7.1% of the non-anticoagulated patients. Conclusions. There was an increased incidence of major bleeding events in anticoagulated patients with AF in critical care compared to non-anticoagulated patients. There was no significant difference in the incidence of reported thromboembolic events within studies, between patients who did and did not receive anticoagulation. However, the outcomes reported within studies were not standardised, therefore, the generalisability of our results to the general critical care population remains unclear. Further data is required to facilitate an evidence-based assessment of the risks and benefits of anticoagulation for critically ill patients with AF.


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