scholarly journals Modelling the expected impact of cigarette tax and price increases under Vietnam’s excise tax law 2015–2020

2020 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-055920
Author(s):  
Mark Goodchild ◽  
Le Thi Thu ◽  
Dao The Son ◽  
Lam Nguyen Tuan ◽  
Robert Totanes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Tax Law ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Cigarette Tax ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
The Government

BackgroundVietnam’s national tobacco control strategy aims to reduce the rate of smoking among male adults from 45% in 2015 to 39% by 2020. The aim of this paper is to assess what contribution cigarette tax increases under Vietnam’s current excise tax plan can be expected to make to this target, and to discuss what additional measures might be implemented accordingly.MethodsThis study uses a mix of administrative datasets and predictive modelling techniques to assess the expected impact of tax and price increases on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and the rate of smoking between 2015 and 2020.FindingsThe average retail price of cigarettes is estimated to have increased by 16% (sensitivity analysis: 14%–18%) in inflation-adjusted terms between 2015 and 2020, while cigarette consumption is projected to decrease by 5.1% (4.5%–5.5%). The rate of smoking among males is projected to decrease to 42.8% (42.1%–43.6%) compared with the target of 39%. Total tax revenues from cigarettes are projected to increase by 21% (19%–23%), reflecting an extra ₫3300 billion in inflation-adjusted revenues for the government.ConclusionThe current excise tax law is expected to have only a modest impact on the rate of smoking in Vietnam, though it has generated tax revenues. If Vietnam is to achieve its tobacco control targets, the government should implement a mixed excise system with a high-specific component to promote public health by raising the price of cigarettes more significantly.

scholarly journals Legal Steps to Secure the Tobacco Supply Chain: A Case Study of Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2055
Author(s):  
Łukasz Balwicki ◽  
Michal Stoklosa ◽  
Małgorzata Balwicka-Szczyrba ◽  
Jeffrey Drope
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
The State ◽  
Tax Law ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Administrative Burden ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
The Government

The threat of tobacco tax evasion and avoidance is the most commonly mentioned argument against tax hikes. Increasingly, the focus of legislators is on leaks in the tobacco crop supply chain, in which raw or cured tobacco that was never taxed finds its way to smokers. To study the process undertaken by Poland to secure the tobacco supply chain, we analyzed the 2013–2018 legislation around tobacco supply and interviewed a key stakeholder in the Government of Poland. We found that farmers and intermediary entities can trade tobacco only if registered with the government. Farmers are required to report the size of their fields and the weight of their crops to the state authorities. Each purchase within the supply chain is also reported by both the seller and the buyer for cross-validation. This has prevented manipulation within the system, while the mere threat of heavy fines related to an excise tax law violation and/or the administrative burden associated with becoming an excise tax payer (had the violation been prosecuted) has significantly contributed to securing the tobacco supply chain. The experience of Poland demonstrates that securing the tobacco supply chain is complicated but also a tractable problem. This case can be widely applicable to other countries.

scholarly journals Analysis of the illicit tobacco market in Georgia in response to fiscal and non-fiscal tobacco control measures

2021 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-056404
Author(s):  
Megan Little ◽  
Hana Ross ◽  
George Bakhturidze ◽  
Iago Kachkachishvili
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Control Law ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Cigarette Taxes ◽  
Illicit Trade ◽  
Cigarette Pack

BackgroundGeorgian illicit cigarette consumption was 1.5% in 2017. In 2018, a new tobacco control law took effect followed by a substantial cigarette excise tax increase in 2019. Research shows these policies reduce tobacco consumption, but the tobacco industry argues they increase illicit trade. There is limited evidence on this, particularly from developing countries.MethodsA panel household survey in Georgia obtained data over three waves: 2017 baseline, 2018 after the tobacco control law took effect and 2019 after taxes increased. A sample of 1578 smokers (and quitters in later waves) from five regions reported their tobacco use and were asked to present a cigarette pack in their possession. These were examined for tax stamps and health warnings to establish legality.FindingsThere was no evidence of an increase in illicit cigarette consumption in Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Akhaltsikhe or Gori in any wave. In Zugdidi, near the Russian-occupied Abkhazia, illicit cigarette consumption was increasing even prior to the tax increase, reaching 30.9% by wave 3. A country-wide shift occurred from manufactured cigarettes to roll-your-own tobacco (whose tax remained unchanged) between waves 2 and 3.ConclusionNo evidence of a country-wide increase in illicit cigarette trade was found after non-fiscal tobacco measures took effect and cigarette taxes increased. Relatively high illicit cigarette consumption in Zugdidi highlights the role of disputed territories and border administration in illicit cigarette supply. Substitution towards roll-your-own tobacco after manufactured cigarette taxes increased demonstrates the importance of equalising taxes on tobacco products to maximise public health benefits.

scholarly journals Tobacco industry tactics in response to cigarette excise tax increases in Mauritius

2019 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2019-055196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie Berthet Valdois ◽  
Corne Van Walbeek ◽  
Hana Ross ◽  
Hema Soondram ◽  
Bhavish Jugurnath ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Mixed System ◽  
Specific System ◽  
The Real ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Real Value ◽  
The Government

BackgroundIn response to high smoking rates, especially among men, Mauritius launched a National Action Plan on Tobacco Control in 2008. It changed its tax system from a mixed system to a uniform specific system. Despite these interventions, cigarette consumption and smoking prevalence in Mauritius decreased only marginally in the subsequent decade.MethodUsing publicly available data, we decompose the retail price of cigarettes into tax and net-of-tax components, between 2011 and 2017. We cover premium, popular and economy cigarettes.ResultsSince its introduction in 2008, the nominal excise tax was increased six times. Between 2011 and 2017, the real value of the excise tax increased by 47%. Meanwhile, British American Tobacco (BAT) increased the real net-of-tax price of premium cigarettes by 61.8% and of popular cigarettes by 47.2%, thus overshifting the tax increase. On economy cigarettes, BAT decreased the real net-of-tax price by 14.7%, thus undershifting the excise tax increase.ConclusionThrough its pricing strategy, BAT has greatly undermined Mauritius’s tobacco control policy. However, BAT cannot continue undershifting the excise tax on economy brands, since the net-of-tax proportion of the retail price is very low already. BAT would have little choice but to increase the retail price on economy brands in response to future excise tax increases. The government of Mauritius is encouraged to keep the specific excise tax structure but to increase the rate at which it is levied.

scholarly journals Price, Income, and Affordability as the Determinants of Tobacco Consumption: A Practitioner’s Guide to Tobacco Taxation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigar Nargis ◽  
Michal Stoklosa ◽  
Ce Shang ◽  
Jeffrey Drope
Keyword(s):  
Price Elasticity ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
High Income ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Tobacco Products ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
Tobacco Taxation

Abstract Introduction Tobacco product prices and consumers’ income are the two major economic determinants of tobacco demand. The affordability of tobacco products is dependent on the price of tobacco products relative to consumer income. Increase in tobacco tax is expected to lead to higher price, lower affordability, and reduced consumption. Price elasticity and affordability elasticity are used in analyzing the effect of tobacco tax increases on tobacco consumption and public health. The availability of both parameters raises the question of which one to apply in policy discussions. Aims and Methods Using global data on cigarette consumption, price, income, and tobacco control measures for 169 countries over 2007–2016, this study estimated the price elasticity and affordability elasticity of cigarette consumption by country income classification using country-specific fixed effects model for panel data. Results The estimates show that the restriction of equal strength of the effects of price and income changes on tobacco consumption maintained in affordability elasticity estimation is valid for low- and middle-income countries, while it is rejected for high-income countries. Conclusions Affordability elasticity may prove to be a useful parameter to explain and predict the sensitivity of consumers to tobacco tax and price policy changes under conditions of robust economic growth, which are more likely to be observed in countries with initial low- or middle-income setting. It can provide a reasonable benchmark for tobacco tax and price increase necessary to effectively reduce affordability and consumption of tobacco, which can form a basis for building systematic tax and price increases into the tobacco tax policy mechanism. Implications Price elasticity measures the sensitivity of consumers to changes in real prices, holding real income constant. Affordability elasticity measures the sensitivity of consumers to price changes adjusted for inflation and income changes. Existing scientific literature on tobacco demand abounds in both price and affordability elasticity estimates, without providing a clear explanation of the theoretical and policy implications of using one parameter over the other. By estimating and comparing price and affordability elasticities for high-income and low-and-middle-income countries separately, this article offers a guide to the practitioners in tobacco taxation for evaluating the effectiveness of tax-induced price increases on tobacco consumption.

scholarly journals Fiscal and Public Health Impact of a Change in Tobacco Excise Taxes in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fenny Ama Pokuaa ◽  
Aba Obrumah Crentsil ◽  
Christian Kwaku Osei ◽  
Felix Ankomah Asante
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Tax Administration ◽  
Tax Structure ◽  
Ad Valorem Tax ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ad Valorem

This working paper predicts the fiscal and public health outcomes from a change in the excise tax structure for cigarettes in Ghana. More than 5,000 people are killed by diseases caused by tobacco every year in Ghana (Tobacco Atlas 2018). Currently the country has a unitary tax administration approach, with a uniform ad valorem tax structure on all excisable products, including tobacco. However, the ECOWAS directive on tobacco control, in line with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO 2003), recommends a simple tax structure – using a mixed excise system with a minimum specific tax floor to overcome the limitations of an ad valorem system on tobacco products, especially cigarettes. The study therefore simulates mixed tax policy interventions, and assesses their effect on government revenue and public health relative to the current ad valorem tax system. Primary data collection of tobacco prices in three geographical zones of the country was conducted in February 2020, across both rural and urban localities. This was supported with secondary data from national and international databases. Based on the assumption that Ghana adopts a mixed tax structure, the simulation shows that, if the government imposes a specific excise tax of GH₵4.00 (US$0.80) per pack in addition to the current ad valorem rate of 175 per cent of the CIF value, the average retail price of a cigarette pack would increase by 128 per cent, cigarette consumption decrease by 27 per cent, tobacco excise tax revenue increase by 627 per cent, and overall tobacco-related government tax revenue increase by 201 per cent.1 Additionally, there would be significant declines in smoking prevalence (3.3%), smoking intensity (1,448 cigarettes per year), and 3,526 premature smoking-related deaths would be avoided. The paper advocates for a strong tax administration and technical capacity, with continuous commitment by the government to adjust the tax rate in line with the rate of inflation and per capita income growth.

scholarly journals Budget Tax Revenues and Losses from External Labor Migration in Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 190-203
Author(s):  
M. O. Kakaulina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Migration ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
International Labor ◽  
International Labor Migration ◽  
The Government

One of the reasons behind declining budget revenues can be external migration. This article aims to describe the methodology for estimation of tax losses and revenues from international labor migration for specific types of taxes. Changes in personal income tax revenues are estimated by using the data on the number of labor emigrants (immigrants) for specific occupations, nominal gross monthly wage of employees in this occupation in Russia, standard child tax deductions and the corresponding personal income tax rate for residents (non-residents). Changes in VAT and excise tax revenues caused by the current trends in labor migration are estimated in accordance with the structure of household consumption. The amount of tax revenues (and losses) is calculated as the product of the sum of VAT and excise tax payments made by one member of a household per year when buying goods, works and services on the territory of Russia, and the number of emigrants (or immigrants). The research uses the data provided by Rosstat, Federal Tax Service of Russia and the Analytical Centre under the Government of the Russian Federation for 2012–2017. The conclusion is made that international migration has a negative impact on the tax revenues of the country’s consolidated state budget. Although, throughout the whole of the given period, the balance of additional revenues from VAT, excise taxes and the personal income tax (PIT) on earned income and budget losses from these taxes remained positive, in absolute terms, this balance decreased significantly. Trends in international labor migration affected the balance of tax losses and revenues. Therefore, the government’s attempts to target international labor migration by reforming the tax legislation seem quite reasonable: the upcoming tax reforms will include the introduction of the concept ‘centre of vital interests’ as the second criterion of residence and equalization of the PIT rate for tax residents and non-residents. The proposed methodology can thus prove to be an effective tool for the Federal Tax Service of Russia to estimate the resulting changes in tax revenues as well as other changes related to labor migration processes.

scholarly journals Perhitungan Alokasi Dana Bagi Hasil Pajak Rokok Pada Badan Pengelola Pendapatan Daerah Provinsi Jawa Tengah Triwulan Iv Tahun 2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akhsanur Rifai ◽  
Resi Yudhaningsih
Keyword(s):  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
Regional Income ◽  
Management Board ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Cigarette Tax ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
Show Result ◽  
Central Java Province

The reseach aims to know determine the procedure for calculating the allocation of funds from cigarette tax revenues quarter IV to Regency / City of Central Java Province On Central Java Regional Income Management Board. Writing method used are the method of description and exposition. The calculation of the allocation of revenue sharing funds for tobacco tax quarter IV which is in use is the realization of 2016. The results of the calculating the allocation of funds from cigarette tax revenues quarter IV to Regency / City between of Central Java Province On Central Java Regional Income Management with regulation governer 67 in 2014 Show result different. Different because that the share of cigarette tax data the number of population used is the data of population in 2014, when it should be calculated with the data of the population in 2015.

scholarly journals Tobacco control in Nepal during a time of government turmoil (1960–2006)

2019 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2019-055066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dharma Bhatta ◽  
Eric Crosbie ◽  
Stella Bialous ◽  
Stanton Glantz
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Tobacco Industry ◽  
Supreme Court Decision ◽  
Tobacco Company ◽  
Executive Orders ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Transnational Tobacco Companies

BackgroundNepal was a monarchy, then a dictatorship, then a democracy. This paper reviews how tobacco control progressed in Nepal in the context of these changes in government from 1950 through 2006.MethodsWe triangulated tobacco industry documents, newspaper articles and key informant interviews.ResultsUntil 1983, the tobacco industry was mostly state owned. Transnational tobacco companies entered the Nepalese market through ventures with Surya Tobacco Company Private Limited (with Imperial Tobacco Company and British American Tobacco) in 1983 and Seti Cigarette Factory Limited (with Philip Morris International [PMI]) in 1985. Seminars and conferences on tobacco, celebrations of World No Tobacco Day (WNTD) and efforts by WHO helped promote tobacco control in Nepal beginning in the 1970s. Tobacco advocates in Nepal pushed the government to issue executive orders banning smoking in public places in 1992 and tobacco advertising in electronic media in 1998, and to introduce a tobacco health tax in 1993. The tobacco industry lobbied against these measures and succeeded in keeping the tobacco tax low by challenging it in court. Tobacco advocates sued the government in 2003 and 2005, resulting in a June 2006 Supreme Court decision upholding the smoking and advertising bans and requiring the government to enact a comprehensive tobacco control law.ConclusionsPolitical instability, conflict, weak governance and the dictatorship significantly affect tobacco control activities in low-income and middle-income countries. Nepal shows that tobacco control advocates can take advantage of global events, such as WNTD, and use domestic litigation to maintain support from civil societies and to advocate for stronger tobacco control policies.

scholarly journals Impact of a recent tobacco tax reform in Argentina

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (Suppl 5) ◽  
pp. s300-s303
Author(s):  
Martín González-Rozada
Keyword(s):  
Price Elasticity ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Price And Income Elasticities ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Demand Price Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

The literature on policies for the control of the tobacco epidemic suggests that increasing excise taxes on the consumption of tobacco products is the most cost-effective policy. Cigarette tax structure in Argentina is very complex. All the tax bases for cigarette consumption taxes are related and, therefore, any modification of a tax affects the collection of the rest of the taxes. This is important given that funds raised by one of the taxes, the Special Tobacco Fund (FET), are allocated among the tobacco provinces according to the value of tobacco production. These provinces oppose in the congress to any reform that increase taxes on cigarette consumption that negatively affects these funds. In May 2016, the government decided to increase the rate of one of the taxes, the internal tax, from 60% to 75%. We study the impact on cigarettes’ demand price elasticity, consumption and tax revenues of this tobacco tax reform. Using an Error Correction Model, we estimate short-run and long-run demand price and income elasticities. We find that the tax reform of May 2016 induced an increase in the magnitude, in absolute value, of the short-run demand price elasticity and at the same time increased the funds collected by the FET. We simulate the effects of the tax reform over the government revenues and per-capita consumption of cigarettes showing that additional increments in taxes would increase revenues and diminish consumption of cigarettes.

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