scholarly journals Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: A case study of an onshore wind project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emad Mohamed ◽  
Nima Gerami Seresht ◽  
Stephen Hague ◽  
Adam Chehouri ◽  
Simaan M. AbouRizk
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Integrated Simulation ◽  
Domain Specific ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
First Case ◽  
Assessment Approach

Although many quantitative risk assessment models have been proposed in literature, their use in construction practice remain limited due to a lack of domain-specific models, tools, and application examples. This is especially true in wind farm construction, where the state-of-the-art integrated Monte Carlo simulation and critical path method (MCS-CPM) risk assessment approach has yet to be demonstrated. The present case study is the first reported application of the MCS-CPM method for risk assessment in wind farm construction and is the first case study to consider correlations between cost and schedule impacts of risk factors using copulas. MCS-CPM provided reasonable risk assessment results for a wind farm project, and its use in practice is recommended. Aimed at facilitating the practical application of quantitative risk assessment methods, this case study provides a much-needed analytical generalization of MCS-CPM, offering application examples, discussion of expected results, and recommendations to wind farm construction practitioners.

An Evaluation of a Test-Driven Security Risk Analysis Approach Based on Two Industrial Case Studies

2019 ◽  
pp. 69-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gencer Erdogan ◽  
Phu H. Nguyen ◽  
Fredrik Seehusen ◽  
Ketil Stølen ◽  
Jon Hofstad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Case Study Research ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
First Case ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Security Risk Assessment

Risk-driven testing and test-driven risk assessment are two strongly related approaches, though the latter is less explored. This chapter presents an evaluation of a test-driven security risk assessment approach to assess how useful testing is for validating and correcting security risk models. Based on the guidelines for case study research, two industrial case studies were analyzed: a multilingual financial web application and a mobile financial application. In both case studies, the testing yielded new information, which was not found in the risk assessment phase. In the first case study, new vulnerabilities were found that resulted in an update of the likelihood values of threat scenarios and risks in the risk model. New vulnerabilities were also identified and added to the risk model in the second case study. These updates led to more accurate risk models, which indicate that the testing was indeed useful for validating and correcting the risk models.

US EPA's TSCA risk assessment approach: a case study of asbestos in automotive brakes

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
David G. Dodge ◽  
Anna M. Engel ◽  
Robyn L. Prueitt ◽  
Michael K. Peterson ◽  
Julie E. Goodman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Approach

Layers of Bias: A Unified Approach for Understanding Problems With Risk Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel Eckhouse ◽  
Kristian Lum ◽  
Cynthia Conti-Cook ◽  
Julie Ciccolini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Final Layer ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Using Data

Scholars in several fields, including quantitative methodologists, legal scholars, and theoretically oriented criminologists, have launched robust debates about the fairness of quantitative risk assessment. As the Supreme Court considers addressing constitutional questions on the issue, we propose a framework for understanding the relationships among these debates: layers of bias. In the top layer, we identify challenges to fairness within the risk-assessment models themselves. We explain types of statistical fairness and the tradeoffs between them. The second layer covers biases embedded in data. Using data from a racially biased criminal justice system can lead to unmeasurable biases in both risk scores and outcome measures. The final layer engages conceptual problems with risk models: Is it fair to make criminal justice decisions about individuals based on groups? We show that each layer depends on the layers below it: Without assurances about the foundational layers, the fairness of the top layers is irrelevant.

Assessing the Usefulness of Testing for Validating and Correcting Security Risk Models Based on Two Industrial Case Studies

2016 ◽  
pp. 1016-1037
Author(s):  
Gencer Erdogan ◽  
Fredrik Seehusen ◽  
Ketil Stølen ◽  
Jon Hofstad ◽  
Jan Øyvind Aagedal
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
First Case ◽  
New Information ◽  
Financial Application

The authors present the results of an evaluation in which the objective was to assess how useful testing is for validating and correcting security risk models. The evaluation is based on two industrial case studies. In the first case study the authors analyzed a multilingual financial Web application, while in the second case study they analyzed a mobile financial application. In both case studies, the testing yielded new information which was not found in the risk assessment phase. In particular, in the first case study, new vulnerabilities were found which resulted in an update of the likelihood values of threat scenarios and risks in the risk model. New vulnerabilities were also identified and added to the risk model in the second case study. These updates led to more accurate risk models, which indicate that the testing was indeed useful for validating and correcting the risk models.

Probability risk assessment of landslides: A case study at Finneidfjord

2008 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 1250-1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark J. Cassidy ◽  
Marco Uzielli ◽  
Suzanne Lacasse
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Historical Case Study ◽  
Historical Case ◽  
Second Moment ◽  
Integrated Risk Assessment ◽  
First Order Second Moment ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessments

Probabilistic risk assessments are increasingly being considered the most appropriate framework for engineers to systematically base decisions on hazard mitigation issues. This paper aims to show the advantages of a quantitative risk assessment by application to a historical case study. The generalized integrated risk assessment framework has been applied retrospectively to a submarine landslide that occurred in 1996 near the village of Finneidfjord in northern Norway. Over 1 million cubic metres of predominantly quick clay was displaced. Even though it was triggered underwater on the embankment of the Sørfjord, the retrogressive nature of the slide resulted in it encroaching 100–150 m inland. The triggering mechanism is believed to have been the placement of fill, from a nearby tunnelling project, on the foreshore of the embankment. This paper is a retrospective quantitative evaluation of the risk to the neighbouring houses, the persons in those houses, and the persons in open spaces caused by the placement of increasing levels of embankment fill. A probabilistic approach, making use of second-moment modelling and first-order second-moment approximation is adopted. It aims to demonstrate the advantages of this type of risk assessment in understanding complex and integrated hazards, particularly those in populated environments.

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