A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach Based on Safety Performance

Although many quantitative risk assessment models have been proposed in literature, their use in construction practice remain limited due to a lack of domain-specific models, tools, and application examples. This is especially true in wind farm construction, where the state-of-the-art integrated Monte Carlo simulation and critical path method (MCS-CPM) risk assessment approach has yet to be demonstrated. The present case study is the first reported application of the MCS-CPM method for risk assessment in wind farm construction and is the first case study to consider correlations between cost and schedule impacts of risk factors using copulas. MCS-CPM provided reasonable risk assessment results for a wind farm project, and its use in practice is recommended. Aimed at facilitating the practical application of quantitative risk assessment methods, this case study provides a much-needed analytical generalization of MCS-CPM, offering application examples, discussion of expected results, and recommendations to wind farm construction practitioners.

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Technical safety: use of concept risk assessment for field development certainty

The APPEA Journal ◽

10.1071/aj18036 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 59 (2) ◽

pp. 549

Author(s):

Colin Crowley ◽

Dave Ashton

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Design Feature ◽

Safety Performance ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Field Development ◽

Risk Levels ◽

Wide Range ◽

Rule Sets ◽

Risk Reduction Measures

As technology advances and field development possibilities grow, the need for earlier guidance on the safety performance of concept designs is greater than ever. The SNC-Lavalin concept risk assessment (CRA) tool is a transparent and rapidly deployable model that is based on sound, industry-accepted quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles. From the earliest stages of field development, when conceptualisation may be vague and data sparse, a wide range and variety of design options can still be assessed effectively and ranked on their safety performance. The CRA tool is proprietary software initially developed with BP and Shell. The model was first calibrated against 10 detailed QRAs, but is regularly benchmarked and updated with the most current failure rate data and has been used on nearly 50 projects globally. The database now incorporates established rule sets from hundreds of detailed QRAs performed, including floating liquefied natural gas and floating storage regasification units. This paper presents a CRA case study for a generic remote offshore field with a range of development options from conventional to minimal offshore facilities. The model calculates the associated risks for the options considered and is presented in terms of individual risk per annum, temporary refuge impairment frequency and potential loss of life. The results highlight the effects of each individual design feature on risk levels by comparison of similar options side by side, noting the main risk contributors and allowing investigation of the benefits of risk reduction measures. This enables identification of the best design features from each of the options and allows an optimised design to be carried forward.

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Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment Matrix for Rotating Equipment

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.845.647 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 845 ◽

pp. 647-651

Author(s):

Mohd Amin bin Abd Majid ◽

Rano Khan Wassan ◽

Ainul Akmar Mokhtar

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Failure Modes ◽

Oil And Gas ◽

Guide Vane ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Inlet Guide Vane ◽

Risk Matrix ◽

Assessment Approach ◽

Rotating Equipment ◽

Blade Failure

In petrochemical, power generation, oil and gas industries and in variety of other sectors rotating equipments are in use to fulfill production requirements. Failure of rotating equipment, especially in such industries can result to risk related issues. A well implemented rotating equipment risk assessment strategy is most needed to achieve desired plant availability and efficiency. In this research semi-quantitative risk assessment approach is proposed to evaluate the risk of rotating equipment and categorize their associated failure risks. Borda ranking is adopted to evaluate the risk in order to minimize risk ties which exist in risk matrix. Compressor is taken as case study to show the applicability of the proposed method for rotating equipment. It was observed that risks of selected failure modes of gas turbine compressor fall in the categories of serious and medium levels based on risk matrix. Rotor bend distortion, blade failure or inlet guide vane failures needed more attention for treatment based on Borda ranking.

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Attribution of Human VTEC O157 Infection from Meat Products: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach

Risk Analysis ◽

10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01317.x ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 30 (5) ◽

pp. 753-765 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Rowena D. Kosmider ◽

Pádraig Nally ◽

Robin R. L. Simons ◽

Adam Brouwer ◽

Susan Cheung ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Meat Products ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Assessment Approach

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A risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in swimming pools: a review

Journal of Water and Health ◽

10.2166/wh.2012.020 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 181-196 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Scott A. Rice ◽

Ben van den Akker ◽

Francesco Pomati ◽

David Roser

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Pseudomonas Aeruginosa ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Opportunistic Pathogen ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Swimming Pools ◽

Critical Knowledge ◽

Risk Management Strategies ◽

Assessment Approach ◽

Significant Public Health

Despite routine monitoring and disinfection, treated swimming pools are frequently contaminated with the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa, which can represent a significant public health threat. This review was undertaken to identify the current understanding of risk factors associated with pool operation with respect to P. aeruginosa. The ecology and factors that promote growth of P. aeruginosa in the pool environment are complex and dynamic and so we applied a systematic risk assessment approach to integrate existing data, with the aim to improve pool management and safety. Sources of P. aeruginosa, types of infections, dose responses, routes of transmission, as well as the efficacy of current disinfectant treatments were reviewed. This review also highlights the critical knowledge gaps that are required for a more robust, quantitative risk assessment of P. aeruginosa. Quantitative risk management strategies have been successfully applied to drinking water systems and should similarly be amenable to developing a better understanding of the risk posed by P. aeruginosa in swimming pools.

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