Fitting growth models to otolith increments to reveal time-varying growth

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy E. Essington ◽  
Mary Elizabeth Matta ◽  
Bryan A. Black ◽  
Thomas E Helser ◽  
Paul D. Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Fish Growth ◽  
Fish Length ◽  
Growth Increments ◽  
Otolith Increments ◽  
Size At Age

Identifying changes in fish growth is important for accurate scientific advice used for fisheries management, because environmental change is affecting fish growth and size-at-age is a critical component of contemporary stock assessment methods. Growth-increment biochronologies are time series of growth-increments derived from hard parts of marine organisms that may reveal dynamics of somatic fish growth. Here we use time series of otolith increments of two fish stocks to fit and compare a biologically-derived growth model and a generalized statistical model. Both models produced similar trajectories of annual growth trends, but the biologically-based one was more precise and predicted smaller inter-annual fluctuations than the statistical model. The biologically-based model strongly indicated covariance between anabolic and catabolic rate among individuals. Otolith size-at-age did not closely match fish length-at-age, and consequently the growth model could not accurately hindcast observed fish length-at-age. For these reasons, fitted growth dynamics from otolith biochronologies may best suited to identify growth rate fluctuations, to understand past drivers of growth dynamics, and improve ecological forecast in the face of rapid environmental change.

scholarly journals Decoupling of otolith and somatic growth during anadromous migration in a northern salmonid

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (11) ◽  
pp. 1940-1953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christie M. Morrison ◽  
Mélodie Kunegel-Lion ◽  
Colin P. Gallagher ◽  
Rick J. Wastle ◽  
Ellen V. Lea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Critical Time ◽  
Somatic Growth ◽  
Fish Growth ◽  
Calcium Deposition ◽  
Fish Length ◽  
Length Relationship ◽  
Anadromous Migration ◽  
Back Calculation ◽  
Size At Age

We assessed the fish length – otolith length relationship (FL–OL) in Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma malma) to verify proportional growth. A decoupling was detected during first ocean migration where fish growth was occurring at a greater rate than otolith growth. Because of this decoupling, the application of traditional back-calculation models overestimated the size-at-age in premigratory char. We developed modified back-calculation equations from existing traditional models to account for this decoupling based on discontinuous piecewise regressions. The new biological intercept breakpoint method (BI–BP) provided the most accurate representation of fish size-at-age throughout all life history stages when compared with known size-at-capture values in fish. The decoupling indicates that factors other than somatic growth are important for otolith accretion. Physiological changes during smoltification likely alter calcium uptake and thereby affect calcium deposition rates on otoliths during this short but biologically critical time period of life history. It is probable that species exhibiting similar complex ontogenetic shifts in life history will likely exhibit decoupling to some extent in the FL–OL relationship.

A state-space spatial survey-based stock assessment (SSURBA) model to inform spatial variation in relative stock trends

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (10) ◽  
pp. 1638-1658
Author(s):  
Rajeev Kumar ◽  
Noel G. Cadigan ◽  
Nan Zheng ◽  
Divya A. Varkey ◽  
M. Joanne Morgan
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Fish Growth ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Fish Length ◽  
Stock Size ◽  
Age Cohort ◽  
Size At Age

An age-structured, spatial survey-based assessment model (SSURBA) is developed and applied to the Grand Banks stock (NAFO Divisions 3LNO) of American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) in Newfoundland and Labrador. The state-space model is fit to annual spatial (i.e., three divisions) stock size-at-age research vessel (RV) survey indices that are assumed to be proportional to abundance. We model index catchability (q) as a logistic function of fish length, which varies with age, cohort, and the time of the survey; therefore, the model facilitates the estimation of q values that change spatially and temporally following changes in fish growth and survey gears. The SSURBA model produces division-level estimates of fishing mortality rates (F), stock productivity, and stock size relative to the logistic catchability assumption with q = 1 for fully selected ages. The spatial model allows us to include additional survey information compared with the space-aggregated assessment model (all of 3LNO) that is currently used to assess stock status. The model can provide estimates of relative catch, which we compare with reported catch trends to partially validate the model.

scholarly journals High-latitude climate variability and its effect on fisheries resources as revealed by fossil cod otoliths

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1081-1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey J. Geffen ◽  
Hans Høie ◽  
Arild Folkvord ◽  
Anne Karin Hufthammer ◽  
Carin Andersson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Fish Growth ◽  
Age And Growth ◽  
Fish Length ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Otolith Growth ◽  
Fisheries Resources ◽  
Growth Increments

Abstract Geffen, A. J., Høie, H., Folkvord, A., Hufthammer, A. K., Andersson, C., Ninnemann, U., Pedersen, R. B., and Nedreaas, K. 2011. High-latitude climate variability and its effect on fisheries resources as revealed by fossil cod otoliths. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1081–1089. Cod (Gadus morhua) otoliths from archaeological sites in northern Norway were analysed to reconstruct the temperature regime and determine the age structure, growth, and population identity of the fish harvested. Otoliths were selected from late- and post-medieval sites (700–300 years ago) to evaluate historical changes in the geographic region that matches the present-day stocks of Northeast Arctic cod (NEAC) and Norwegian coastal cod (NCC). Seasonal temperature cycles were reconstructed from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements along transects representing fish ages 1.5–3 years old. Reconstructions of the size, age, and growth characteristics of individual fish were based on otolith growth increments. The geographical source and stock identity of the individuals were estimated based on otolith elemental composition and otolith growth features. Both NCC and NEAC fish were represented at Måsøy and Vanna. The results indicate that fishing at Vanna exploited NEAC during their spawning migration, compared with fishing at Måsøy, which was restricted to more coastal fish. Fish growth patterns appeared to be affected by changes in the temperature regimes as estimated from otolith δ18O and back-calculated fish length-at-age, with evident differences between pre- and post-1600 periods.

Otolith microstructure and growth patterns during the early life history of lanternfishes (family Myctophidae)

1991 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 1777-1792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz B. Linkowski
Keyword(s):  
Early Life History ◽  
Growth Increment ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Fish Growth ◽  
Fish Length ◽  
Simultaneous Formation ◽  
Growth Increments ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
History Of ◽  
Otolith Size

The microstructure of the central part of the sagittal otoliths of 55 myctophid species belonging to 27 genera of lanternfishes was compared by means of light and scanning electron microscopy. Multiple primordia were found in the nuclei of all otoliths. In most species and genera a symmetrical pattern of accessory primordia (AP) was observed: they were located along the same growth increment, which indicates simultaneous formation. A clustered pattern of AP was found only in species belonging to the tribe Gymnoscopelini: AP occurred at several growth increments, which indicates that they developed sequentially. The growth increments formed after the formation of clustered AP revealed a sectorial otolith structure, i.e., growth increments were not continuous but separated by radial discontinuities. The pattern and time of formation of AP were found to influence the relationship between otolith diameter and fish length in the Myctophidae. The formation of numerous AP concurrently with transformation of the larva led to a dissociation of fish growth from otolith growth. When AP appeared simultaneously but before transformation, the allometric relationship between otolith size and fish length was not disrupted by this process. Sequential formation of AP considerably before transformation, which occurred only in the Gymnoscopelini, led to an isometric relationship between fish size and otolith size. The potential importance of the AP pattern as a distinguishing character for myctophid larvae is considered to be greatest in the Gymnoscopelini, as these growth centers, in the form of external protrusions, were evident over a wide range of sizes from small larvae to early juveniles.

scholarly journals A periodic and seasonal statistical model for non-negative integer-valued time series with an application to dispensed medications in respiratory diseases

2021 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 545-558
Author(s):  
Paulo Roberto Prezotti Filho ◽  
Valderio Anselmo Reisen ◽  
Pascal Bondon ◽  
Márton Ispány ◽  
Milena Machado Melo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Negative Integer

Free Traders and Drug Smugglers: The Effects of Trade Openness on States' Ability to Combat Drug Trafficking

2009 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Horace A. Bartilow ◽  
Kihong Eom
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Theoretical Literature ◽  
Openness To Trade ◽  
Pooled Time Series

AbstractThe theoretical literature presents conflicting expectations about the effects of trade openness on the ability of states to interdict drug trafficking. One view expects that trade openness will undermine drug interdiction; a second argues the opposite; a third argues that trade openness does not necessarily affect drug interdiction. This article assesses empirically the effects of trade openness on drug interdiction for countries in the Americas using a pooled time-series cross-sectional statistical model. It finds that trade openness decreases the interdiction capabilities of states in drug-consuming countries while increasing those of states in drug-producing countries. Greater openness to trade does not have a consistently significant effect on the interdiction capabilities of states in drug transit countries.

scholarly journals Dendroecological reconstructions of forest disturbance history using time-series analysis with intervention detection

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 868-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L Druckenbrod
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Forest Disturbance ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Fagus Grandifolia ◽  
Disturbance History ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Growth Increments ◽  
Width Measurements

The detection of release events in the annual growth increments of trees has become a central and widely applied method for reconstructing the disturbance history of forests. While numerous approaches have been developed for identifying release events, the preponderance of these methods relies on running means that compare the percent change in growth rates. These methods do not explicitly account for the autocorrelation present within tree-ring width measurements and may introduce spurious events. This paper utilizes autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) processes to model tree-ring time series and incorporates intervention detection to identify pulse and step outliers as well as changes in trends indicative of a deterministic exogenous influence on past growth. This approach is evaluated by applying it to three chronologies from the Forest Responses to Anthropogenic Stress (FORAST) project that were impacted by prior disturbance events. The examples include a hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière) chronology from New Hampshire, a white pine (Pinus strobus L.) chronology from Pennsylvania, and an American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) chronology from Virginia. All three chronologies exhibit a clustering of step, pulse, and trend interventions subsequent to a known or likely disturbance event. Time-series analysis offers an alternative approach for identifying prior forest disturbances via tree rings based on statistical methods applicable across species and disturbance regimes.

Geochemical time series from lake sediments of the Central Asia as chronologic evidence of environmental change over the Late Holocene

2006 ◽  
Vol 25 (S1) ◽  
pp. 6-6
Author(s):  
Andrey V. Daryin ◽  
Ivan A. Kalugin ◽  
Lubov G. Smolyaninova ◽  
Konstantin V. Zolotarev ◽  
Elena G. Vologina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Lake Sediments ◽  
Late Holocene

scholarly journals Incorporating temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions into a somatic growth model

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 316-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.C. Dzul ◽  
C.B. Yackulic ◽  
J. Korman ◽  
M.D. Yard ◽  
J.D. Muehlbauer
Keyword(s):  
Food Availability ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Somatic Growth ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Fish Growth ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Environmental Controls

Evaluating environmental effects on fish growth can be challenging because environmental conditions may vary at relatively fine temporal scales compared with sampling occasions. Here we develop a Bayesian state-space growth model to evaluate effects of monthly environmental data on growth of fish that are observed less frequently (e.g., from mark–recapture data where time between captures can range from months to years). We assess effects of temperature, turbidity, food availability, flow variability, and trout abundance on subadult humpback chub (Gila cypha) growth in two rivers, the Colorado River (CR) and the Little Colorado River (LCR), and we use out-of-sample prediction to rank competing models. Environmental covariates explained a high proportion of the variation in growth in both rivers; however, the best growth models were river-specific and included either positive temperature and turbidity duration effects (CR) or positive temperature and food availability effects (LCR). Our approach to analyzing environmental controls on growth should be applicable in other systems where environmental data vary over relatively short time scales compared with animal observations.

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