Dendroclimatic Analysis of Central Appalachian Red Spruce in West Virginia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Yetter ◽  
Sophan Chhin ◽  
John Brown
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Virginia ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Red Spruce ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Involved Field ◽  
Future Growth

We conducted dendroclimatic analyses and constructed future growth projections for red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) throughout the central Appalachians in the state of West Virginia. This study involved field sampling of 18 sites across red spruce’s range throughout Monongahela National Forest in 6 regions based on pairwise combinations of three latitudinal groups (north, central, and southern latitudes) with two aspects (north and south aspect). Each combination of latitudinal group and aspect was referred to as a landscape cluster. Growth was negatively impacted by high summer temperature stress, but responded favorably to high fall temperatures. The results also suggested that red spruce was likely impacted by the degree of winter harshness in all landscape clusters. In the northern latitudinal landscape clusters, red spruce responded favorably to warm spring temperatures by allowing an early start to the growing season. Growth projections under a future climate change scenario show that future expected increases in mean and maximum monthly temperatures will have negative effects on future spruce growth. The forecasting results suggested that red spruce in northern latitudes on south aspects or central latitudes on north aspects are the landscape clusters that will likely be the most resilient to future climate change. Dendroclimatic results and future growth projections can assist with identifying locations that are most suitable for future red spruce restoration activities.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Recent and Future Temperature Change over the Sichuan Basin, China, Using CMIP5 Climate Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (17) ◽  
pp. 6701-6722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Bannister ◽  
Michael Herzog ◽  
Hans-F. Graf ◽  
J. Scott Hosking ◽  
C. Alan Short
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sichuan Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
The Sichuan Basin ◽  
Twenty First Century

The Sichuan basin is one of the most densely populated regions of China, making the area particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts associated with future climate change. As such, climate models are important for understanding regional and local impacts of climate change and variability, like heat stress and drought. In this study, climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are validated over the Sichuan basin by evaluating how well each model can capture the phase, amplitude, and variability of the regionally observed mean, maximum, and minimum temperature between 1979 and 2005. The results reveal that the majority of the models do not capture the basic spatial pattern and observed means, trends, and probability distribution functions. In particular, mean and minimum temperatures are underestimated, especially during the winter, resulting in biases exceeding −3°C. Models that reasonably represent the complex basin topography are found to generally have lower biases overall. The five most skillful climate models with respect to the regional climate of the Sichuan basin are selected to explore twenty-first-century temperature projections for the region. Under the CMIP5 high-emission future climate change scenario, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), the temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 4°C (with an average warming rate of +0.72°C decade−1), with the greatest warming located over the central plains of the Sichuan basin, by 2100. Moreover, the frequency of extreme months (where mean temperature exceeds 28°C) is shown to increase in the twenty-first century at a faster rate compared to the twentieth century.

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

CHILDHOOD ASTHMA PROJECTIONS FOR ATLANTA UNDER A FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

Epidemiology ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. S97
Author(s):  
Jonathan Patz ◽  
Howard Frumkin ◽  
Michell Klein ◽  
Michelle Bell ◽  
Hugh Ellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Childhood Asthma ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

scholarly journals Climate change scenario analysis for Baro-Akobo river basin, Southwestern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teressa Negassa Muleta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract Background Several water resources projects are under planning and implementation in the Baro-Akobo basin. Currently, the planning and management of these projects is relied on historical data. So far, hardly any study has addressed water resources management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change in the basin. The main bottleneck to this has been lack of future climate change scenario base data over the basin. The current study is aimed at developing future climate change scenario for the basin. To this end, Regional Climate Model (RCM) downscaled data for A1B emission scenario was employed and bias corrected at basin level using observed data. Future climate change scenario was developed using the bias corrected RCM output data with the basic objective of producing baseline data for sustainable water resources development and management in the basin. Result The projected future climate shows an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperatures; however, for the case of precipitation it does not manifest a systematic increasing or decreasing trend in the next century. The projected mean annual temperature increases from the baseline period by an amount of 1 °C and 3.5 °C respectively, in 2040s and 2090s. Similarly, evapotranspiration has been found to increase to an extent of 25% over the basin. The precipitation is predicted to experience a mean annual decrease of 1.8% in 2040s and an increase of 1.8% in 2090s over the basin for the A1B emission scenario. Conclusion The study resulted in a considerable future change in climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration) on the monthly and seasonal basis. These have an implication on hydrologic extremes-drought and flooding, and demands dynamic water resources management. Hence the study gives a valuable base information for water resources planning and managers, particularly for modeling reservoir inflow-climate change relations, to adapt reservoir operation rules to the real-time changing climate.

Non-stationary response of rain-fed spring wheat yield to future climate change in northern latitudes

2021 ◽  
Vol 772 ◽  
pp. 145474
Author(s):  
Pouya Khalili ◽  
Badrul Masud ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Symon Mezbahuddin ◽  
Miles Dyck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Stationary Response ◽  
Northern Latitudes

scholarly journals Evaluation of long term forest fires in India with respect to state administrative boundary, forest category of LULC and future climate change scenario: A Geospatial Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 79 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-343
Author(s):  
Firoz Ahmad ◽  
Md Meraj Uddin ◽  
Laxmi Goparaju
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract Analysing the forest fires events in climate change scenario is essential for protecting the forest from further degradation. Geospatial technology is one of the advanced tools that has enormous capacity to evaluate the number of data sets simultaneously and to analyse the hidden relationships and trends. This study has evaluated the long term forest fire events with respect to India’s state boundary, its seasonal monthly trend, all forest categories of LULC and future climate anomalies datasets over the Indian region. Furthermore, the spatial analysis revealed the trend and their relationship. The state wise evaluation of forest fire events reflects that the state of Mizoram has the highest forest fire frequency percentage (11.33%) followed by Chhattisgarh (9.39%), Orissa (9.18%), Madhya Pradesh (8.56%), Assam (8.45%), Maharashtra (7.35%), Manipur (6.94%), Andhra Pradesh (5.49%), Meghalaya (4.86%) and Telangana (4.23%) when compared to the total country’s forest fire counts. The various LULC categories which represent the forest show some notable forest fire trends. The category ‘Deciduous Broadleaf Forest’ retain the highest fire frequency equivalent to 38.1% followed by ‘Mixed Forest’ (25.6%), ‘Evergreen Broadleaf Forest’ (16.5%), ‘Deciduous Needle leaf Forest’ (11.5%), ‘Shrub land’ (5.5%), ‘Evergreen Needle leaf Forest’ (1.5%) and ‘Plantations’ (1.2%). Monthly seasonal variation of forest fire events reveal the highest forest fire frequency percentage in the month of ‘March’ (55.4%) followed by ‘April’ (28.2%), ‘February’ (8.1%), ‘May’ (6.7%), ‘June’ (0.9%) and ‘January’ (0.7%). The evaluation of future climate data for the year 2030 shows significant increase in forest fire seasonal temperature and abrupt annual rainfall pattern; therefore, future forest fires will be more intensified in large parts of India, whereas it will be more crucial for some of the states such as Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Assam and in the lower Sivalik range of Himalaya. The deciduous forests will further degrade in future. The highlight/results of this study have very high importance because such spatial relationship among the various datasets is analysed at the country level in view of the future climate scenario. Such analysis gives insight to the policymakers to make sustainable future plans for prioritization of the various state forests suffering from forest fire keeping in mind the future climate change scenario.

scholarly journals Projections of CMIP5 evaporation data sets under future climate change scenarios and comparison with estimates from the observations over peninsular India

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-190
Author(s):  
G. PURNA DURGA ◽  
A. NAGA RAJESH ◽  
T.V. LAKSHMI KUMAR
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Mixed Response

Present study commences from the time series analysis of evaporation data sets obtained from the Coupled Modeled Inter comparison Project of Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the study period 1979 to 2100 under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios over Interior Peninsular region during the Northeast monsoon (October to December) period. Further, a comparative analysis has been carried out with the evapotranspiration (ET) estimated from the Hargreaves and Samani (1982) using the temperature data of India Meteorological Department for the period 1979 to 2005. Our results show that evaporation trends are increasing with more prominence in RCP 8.5 scenario. This increase in evaporation has been attributed to increase in air temperature which is an undisputed fact under future climate change scenario. Different climate models of CMIP5 show mixed response by displaying the positive and negative correlations with the Hargreaves ET over the study region. The results of the study will be useful in understanding the bias between the modeled data sets and the estimates of ET from the observations.

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