Reproduction areas of roach (Rutilus rutilus) in the northern Baltic Sea: potential effects of climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (12) ◽  
pp. 2678-2688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meri Härmä ◽  
Antti Lappalainen ◽  
Lauri Urho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Rutilus Rutilus ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Roach Rutilus Rutilus ◽  
Spring Runoff ◽  
Freshwater Inputs ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
River Mouths

The roach ( Rutilus rutilus ) is a common freshwater fish species in the brackish coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea. In this study, surveys of roach larvae were carried out at reed-belt shores encompassing the entire archipelago zone in the northwestern Gulf of Finland. A logistic regression model was constructed and then used to spatially predict and map potential roach reproduction areas using a geographic information system (GIS). The results indicate that low spring salinity (<4‰) is the most important factor determining the success of roach reproduction. Reed-belt shores in the inner archipelago with large freshwater inputs in the spring constitute the key reproduction areas. Spring runoff peaks caused by melting snow together with the effects of ice cover on the spreading of freshwater runoff enable roach to reproduce relatively far from river mouths. Nevertheless, 68% of the reed-belt shores in the study area are presently beyond the 4‰ salinity limit and thus unsuitable for reproduction. In the future, climate change is predicted to reduce the salinity of the Baltic Sea, but the potential climate change impacts on roach are partly contradictory. The most likely outcome, however, is a spatial increase in the extent of roach reproduction areas in the northern Baltic Sea.

A combination of species distribution and ocean-biogeochemical models suggests that climate change overrides eutrophication as the driver of future distributions of a key benthic crustacean in the estuarine ecosystem of the Baltic Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (6) ◽  
pp. 2089-2105
Author(s):  
Mayya Gogina ◽  
Michael L Zettler ◽  
Irene Wåhlström ◽  
Helén Andersson ◽  
Hagen Radtke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Estuarine Ecosystem ◽  
Biogeochemical Models ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract Species in the brackish and estuarine ecosystems will experience multiple changes in hydrographic variables due to ongoing climate change and nutrient loads. Here, we investigate how a glacial relict species (Saduria entomon), having relatively cold, low salinity biogeographic origin, could be affected by the combined scenarios of climate change and eutrophication. It is an important prey for higher trophic-level species such as cod, and a predator of other benthic animals. We constructed habitat distribution models based occurrence and density of this species across the entire Baltic and estimated the relative importance of different driving variables. We then used two regional coupled ocean-biogeochemical models to investigate the combined impacts of two future climate change and nutrient loads scenarios on its spatial distribution in 2070–2100. According to the scenarios, the Baltic Sea will become warmer and fresher. Our results show that expected changes in salinity and temperature outrank those due to two nutrient-load scenarios (Baltic Sea Action Plan and business as usual) in their effect on S. entomon distribution. The results are relatively similar when using different models with the same scenarios, thereby increasing the confidence of projections. Overall, our models predict a net increase (and local declines) of suitable habitat area, total abundance and biomass for this species, which is probably facilitated by strong osmoregulation ability and tolerance to temperature changes. We emphasize the necessity of considering multiple hydrographic variables when estimating climate change impacts on species living in brackish and estuarine systems.

scholarly journals Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea Region until 2100

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole B. Christensen ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
H. E. Markus Meier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but also under pressure due to high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this review paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the picture from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. The coupled atmosphere-ocean model locally modifies the climate change signal relative to that in the stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region and Environmental Impacts

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jouni Räisänen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Baltic

The warming of the global climate is expected to continue in the 21st century, although the magnitude of change depends on future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the sensitivity of climate to them. The regional characteristics and impacts of future climate change in the Baltic Sea countries have been explored since at least the 1990s. Later research has supported many findings from the early studies, but advances in understanding and improved modeling tools have made the picture gradually more comprehensive and more detailed. Nevertheless, many uncertainties still remain.In the Baltic Sea region, warming is likely to exceed its global average, particularly in winter and in the northern parts of the area. The warming will be accompanied by a general increase in winter precipitation, but in summer, precipitation may either increase or decrease, with a larger chance of drying in the southern than in the northern parts of the region. Despite the increase in winter precipitation, the amount of snow is generally expected to decrease, as a smaller fraction of the precipitation falls as snow and midwinter snowmelt episodes become more common. Changes in windiness are very uncertain, although most projections suggest a slight increase in average wind speed over the Baltic Sea. Climatic extremes are also projected to change, but some of the changes will differ from the corresponding change in mean climate. For example, the lowest winter temperatures are expected to warm even more than the winter mean temperature, and short-term summer precipitation extremes are likely to become more severe, even in the areas where the mean summer precipitation does not increase.The projected atmospheric changes will be accompanied by an increase in Baltic Sea water temperature, reduced ice cover, and, according to most studies, reduced salinity due to increased precipitation and river runoff. The seasonal cycle of runoff will be modified by changes in precipitation and earlier snowmelt. Global-scale sea level rise also will affect the Baltic Sea, but will be counteracted by glacial isostatic adjustment. According to most projections, in the northern parts of the Baltic Sea, the latter will still dominate, leading to a continued, although decelerated, decrease in relative sea level. The changes in the physical environment and climate will have a number of environmental impacts on, for example, atmospheric chemistry, freshwater and marine biogeochemistry, ecosystems, and coastal erosion. However, future environmental change in the region will be affected by several interrelated factors. Climate change is only one of them, and in many cases its effects may be exceeded by other anthropogenic changes.

scholarly journals Projected climate change impacts on North Sea and Baltic Sea: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model based scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 12229-12279 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Pushpadas ◽  
C. Schrum ◽  
U. Daewel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Climate change impacts on the marine biogeochemistry and lower trophic level dynamics in the North Sea and Baltic Sea have been assessed using regional downscaling in a number of recent studies. However, most of these where only forced by physical conditions from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional downscaling considering the climate change impact on oceanic nutrient conditions from Global Earth System Models (ESMs) are rare and so far solely based on CMIP3-generation climate models. The few studies published show a large range in projected future primary production and hydrodynamic condition. With the addition of CMIP5 models and scenarios, the demand to explore the uncertainty in regional climate change projections increased. Moreover, the question arises how projections based on CMIP5-generation models compare to earlier projections and multi-model ensembles comprising both AR4 and AR5 generation forcing models. Here, we investigated the potential future climate change impacts to the North Sea and the Baltic Sea ecosystem using a coherent regional downscaling strategy based on the regional coupled bio-physical model ECOSMO. ECOSMO was forced by output from different ESMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Multi-model ensembles using CMIP3/A1B and CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios are examined, where the selected CMIP5 models are the successors of the chosen CMIP3 models. Comparing projected changes with the present day reference condition, all these simulations predicted an increase in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both North Sea and Baltic Sea, reduction in sea ice in the Baltic, decrease in primary production in the North Sea and an increase in primary production in the Baltic Sea. Despite these largely consistent results on the direction of the projected changes, our results revealed a broad range in the amplitude of projected climate change impacts. Our study strengthens the claim that the choice of the ESM is a major factor for regional climate projections. The change in oceanic nutrient input appeared to be the major driver for the projected changes in North Sea primary production. Assessing the spread in ensemble groups, we found that there is for the North Sea a significant reduction in the spread of projected changes among CMIP5 forced model simulations compared to those forced by CMIP3 ESMs, except for salinity. The latter was due to an unexpected salinification observed in one of the CMIP5 model while all other models exhibit freshening in the future. However, for the Baltic Sea substantial differences in inter-model variability in projected climate change impact to primary production is lacking.

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