Is spawner biomass a sensitive measure of the reproductive and recruitment potential of Northeast Arctic cod?

1998 ◽  
Vol 55 (7) ◽  
pp. 1766-1783 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Tara Marshall ◽  
Olav Sigurd Kjesbu ◽  
Nathalia A Yaragina ◽  
Per Solemdal ◽  
Øyvind Ulltang
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Individual Scale ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

The assumption that spawner biomass is directly proportional to total egg production by fish stocks underlies most spawner-recruit relationships. Despite its importance, this assumption is largely untested. Data describing the reproductive potential of Northeast Arctic (NEA) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were used to test the proportionality assumption for a period showing strong variation in condition and abundance of spawners. At the individual scale, relative fecundity varied with length and condition. This decreases the likelihood that the proportionality assumption is valid. At the stock level, total egg production was estimated (1985-1996) using acoustic estimates of total abundance and demographic information from trawl sampling in combination with year-specific fecundity-length relationships. For NEA cod, spawner biomass estimated by virtual population analysis (VPA) was not proportional to total egg production. Compared with VPA-based estimates of spawner biomass, total egg production is an improved index of recruitment potential because (i) the magnitude of variation observed in total egg production was closer to that observed in recruitment and (ii) the relationship between recruitment at age 1 and total egg production approaches the origin. The results suggest that further progress in explaining recruitment variation will be achieved using more sensitive measures of the true reproductive potential of the stock.

scholarly journals The effect of interannual variation in growth and condition on haddock recruitment

1999 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Tara Marshall ◽  
Kenneth T Frank
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Indirect Approach ◽  
Virtual Population Analysis ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between recruitment and spawner biomass assumes that estimates of spawner biomass are proportional to total egg production by the stock. The validity of this assumption is in question for long-lived gadoid stocks; however, estimating total egg production independently of spawner biomass is seldom feasible. An alternative approach is to examine correlations between recruitment and variables likely to be proxies for total egg production by the stock. This indirect approach was used for haddock on the Scotian Shelf. Indices of growth (mean length at age-4) and condition (weight at 50 cm) were used as proxies for the reproductive potential of individual spawners. Both variables were positively correlated with recruitment over a 3-decade period (1964-1995). During the same time period, there was no relationship between recruitment and spawner biomass estimated by Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). This is further evidence that VPA-based spawner biomass is a poor index of the true reproductive potential of the stock. The results highlight the need to develop more accurate/precise measures of total egg production for use in recruitment research.

scholarly journals Does increased information about reproductive potential result in better prediction of recruitment?

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (8) ◽  
pp. 1361-1368 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Joanne Morgan ◽  
Alfonso Perez-Rodriguez ◽  
Fran Saborido-Rey
Keyword(s):  
Reproductive Biology ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Greenland Halibut ◽  
Greenland Halibut Reinhardtius Hippoglossoides ◽  
Difficult Challenge ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Hippoglossoides Platessoides

The relationship between stock size and recruitment is an essential element in the understanding of the productivity of a population. However, predicting the number of recruits produced by a population has proven to be a difficult challenge. This may in part be a result of poor estimation of reproductive potential (RP). We determined if including increased information on reproductive biology in indices of RP results in better predictions of recruitment. We investigated some of the conditions that lead to better (or worse) recruitment prediction when more biologically complex indices of RP are used. Data from four populations in the Northwest Atlantic were examined: southern Grand Bank (NAFO Division 3NO) cod ( Gadus morhua ), Flemish Cap (NAFO Division 3M) cod, Newfoundland (NAFO Division 3LNO) American plaice ( Hippoglossoides platessoides ), and Greenland halibut ( Reinhardtius hippoglossoides ) (NAFO Subarea 2 + Division 3KLMNO). Stock–recruit models paired with complex indices of RP gave a better estimate of recruitment in slightly more than half of the tests conducted. When there were larger trends in the reproductive biology (maturity at age, sex ratio and egg production), more complex indices of RP were more likely to provide a better estimate of recruitment.

scholarly journals Systematic bias in estimates of reproductive potential of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock: implications for stock–recruit theory and management

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 980-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Tara Marshall ◽  
Coby L Needle ◽  
Anders Thorsen ◽  
Olav Sigurd Kjesbu ◽  
Nathalia A Yaragina
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Stock Status ◽  
Relative Fecundity ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Spawning Stock

Stock–recruit relationships that use spawning stock biomass (SSB) to represent reproductive potential assume that the proportion of SSB composed of females and the relative fecundity (number of eggs produced per unit mass) are both constant over time. To test these two assumptions, female-only spawner biomass (FSB) and total egg production (TEP) were estimated for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) over a 56-year time period. The proportion of females (FSB/SSB) varied between 24% and 68%, and the variation was systematic with length such that SSB became more female-biased as the mean length of spawners increased. Relative fecundity of the stock (TEP/SSB) varied between 115 and 355 eggs·g–1 and was significantly, positively correlated with mean length of spawners. Both FSB and TEP gave a different interpretation of the recruitment response to reductions in stock size (overcompensatory) compared with that obtained using SSB (either compensatory or depensatory). There was no difference between SSB and FSB in the assessment of stock status; however, in recent years (1980–2001) TEP fell below the threshold level at which recruitment becomes impaired more frequently than did SSB. This suggests that using SSB as a measure of stock reproductive potential could lead to overly optimistic assessments of stock status.

Significance of the Functional Response of Predators to Changes in Prey Abundance in Multispecies Virtual Population Analysis

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mskael Hisdén
Keyword(s):  
Population Analysis ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Predation Mortality ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Sea Fish ◽  
Increasing Function

Recent applications of multispecies assessment methods (MSVPA) to North Sea Fish stocks indicate that MSVPA and single-species assessments give highly corrected recruitment estimates. This may be an artifact due to the choice of the relationship between predation mortality and prey cohort size. If the predation mortality is an increasing function of prey cohort size over a certain range of cohort sizes, even a constant predator biomass may cause fluctuations in the number of fish recruiting to the fishable part of the population. Thus the correlation between single-species and multispecies recruitment estimates may be lower than earlier analyses have suggested, and changes in predation mortality may have caused fluctuations in year class strengths which previously have been attributed to unspecified environmental conditions. Because a relatively minor alteration of the predation function can cause such a drastic change in the perceived dynamics of the fish stocks, I suggest that more studies of the predation processes in fish communities are needed before one can hope to gain deeper insights into the recruitment of fish stocks by applying multispecies assessment methods.

scholarly journals Reconstructing the stock-recruit relationship for Northeast Arctic cod using a bioenergetic index of reproductive potential

2000 ◽  
Vol 57 (12) ◽  
pp. 2433-2442 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Tara Marshall ◽  
Nathalia A Yaragina ◽  
Bjørn Ådlandsvik ◽  
Andrey V Dolgov
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Alongshore Wind Stress ◽  
Alongshore Wind

Correlation and simulation analyses suggest that, for the Northeast Arctic (NA) cod stock, the total lipid energy (TLE (kJ)) contained in the livers of mature females is proportional to total egg production, making TLE a potential predictor of recruitment. Accordingly, the TLE of NA cod was estimated for a 51-year time period (1946-1996), using estimates of numbers at length derived from virtual population analysis, modelled values of proportion mature and weight at length, and observed values of the liver-condition index. A significant linear relationship between TLE and recruitment to age 3 was observed. The temporal trend in TLE suggests that the reproductive potential of the NA cod stock has been in decline since the mid-1970s. A multiple-regression model that included TLE, mean temperature, and mean alongshore wind stress as independent variables explained approximately 43% of the variation in recruitment. Reconstructing stock-recruit relationships using more sensitive measures of reproductive potential is the first step in resolving environmental effects on recruitment and in developing biological reference points that are more effective in stock conservation.

scholarly journals Effect of changes in reproductive potential on perceived productivity of three Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Joanne Morgan ◽  
John Brattey
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Relative Rate ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Basic Information ◽  
Northern Cod ◽  
Spawning Stock

Abstract Variation in maturity-at-age, sex ratio, and potential egg production (through changes in length at age) were examined for northern cod (NAFO Division 2J + 3KL), southern Grand Bank cod (3NO), and southern Newfoundland cod (3Ps). All showed significant interannual variability in each stock. Estimates of reproductive potential were produced by sequentially incorporating estimates of proportion mature at age, sex ratio at age, and potential egg production. The estimates of reproductive potential produced by each method were broadly similar, but there were important differences. This leads to differing perceptions of stock productivity, as measured by relative rate of recruitment of a stock and in the spawning stock produced per recruit. These differing perceptions can have a major impact on expectations for the recovery of depleted stocks and the sustainability of various levels of fishing. Efforts should be made to improve estimates of reproductive potential by further exploring the impacts of changes in the spawning characteristics of populations, and by collecting such basic information as fecundity data.

Salinity and Recruitment of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in the Newfoundland Region

1993 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 1599-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ransom A. Myers ◽  
Kenneth F. Drinkwater ◽  
Nicholas J. Barrowman ◽  
James W. Baird
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Grand Banks ◽  
The North ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Recruitment Time

Recruitment predictions for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the North Atlantic, based upon a previously published regression with salinity, are found to be well correlated with recent recruitment estimates from both virtual population analysis and those derived from research surveys. The addition of spawning stock biomass in the regression significantly increased the percentage of the variance accounted for in the recruitment time series. A similar relationship between recruitment and salinity was found for two nearby stocks (southern Grand Banks and St. Pierre Bank). Oceanographic and food chain mechanisms that might be responsible for a link between salinity and recruitment are discussed.

scholarly journals Did population collapse influence individual fecundity of Northwest Atlantic cod?

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (7) ◽  
pp. 1338-1347 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Stares ◽  
R. M. Rideout ◽  
M. J. Morgan ◽  
J. Brattey
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Population Recovery ◽  
Potential Fecundity ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
Population Collapse ◽  
Variable Nature ◽  
Individual Fecundity

Abstract Stares, J. C., Rideout, R. M., Morgan, M. J., and Brattey, J. 2007. Did population collapse influence individual fecundity of Northwest Atlantic cod? – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64:1338 –1347. We examined the influence of population collapse on individual potential fecundity and total population egg production (TEP) of three northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) populations: northern cod (Divisions 2J3KL), southern Grand Bank cod (NAFO Divisions 3NO), and southern Newfoundland cod (Subdivision 3Ps). Fecundity at length increased in conjunction with population collapse for two (3NO, 3Ps) of the three populations. Subsequent moderate population recovery between the 1990s and 2000s in 3Ps was accompanied by a decrease in fecundity at length. A large decrease in fecundity at length for 3NO during the same time period, despite little or no population recovery, coupled with the fact that there was no obvious difference in fish condition between the two time periods, suggested that density-independent factors could be contributing to the changes in fecundity. Use of pre-collapse fecundity–length relationships to estimate TEP in the post-collapse period resulted in underestimation of TEP by as much as 30% in 3NO and 46% in 3Ps, whereas in 2J3KL, TEP was overestimated by as much as 18%. Although the results do not fully support the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between population size and fecundity, they do demonstrate the variable nature of cod fecundity which, if not accounted for, can lead to erroneous perceptions of stock reproductive potential.

scholarly journals Temporal trends in probabilistic maturation reaction norms and growth of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the Icelandic shelf

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (10) ◽  
pp. 1719-1733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Pardoe ◽  
Anssi Vainikka ◽  
Gudmundur Thórdarson ◽  
Gudrun Marteinsdóttir ◽  
Mikko Heino
Keyword(s):  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Reaction Norm ◽  
Genetic Change ◽  
Regional Survey ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Intensive Fishing

Decreasing temporal trends in probabilistic maturation reaction norm (PMRN) midpoints, symptomatic of earlier maturation despite environmentally induced variation in growth, have been observed in many exploited fish stocks. Here, we studied the growth and maturation trends of female and male Icelandic cod ( Gadus morhua ) by estimating PMRN midpoints for cohorts 1964–1999 and found evidence that a shift towards maturation at smaller sizes and younger ages has occurred independently of changes in growth, condition, and temperature. Weighting the data with regional survey abundance estimates to account for spatial heterogeneity in maturity status and sampling intensity did not qualitatively affect the temporal trends. Length-at-age also decreased through the study period, which, through simulations, could be attributed to the energetic costs of earlier maturity at maturing age groups but not at younger ages. These findings support the hypothesis that such changes in maturation schedules are not caused by environmental factors alone but could also reflect a genetic change, potentially in response to intensive fishing.

Benthic Habitats and the Effects of Fishing

2005 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Fish Habitat ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Habitat Features ◽  
The Irish Sea ◽  
Belfast Lough ◽  
Existing Data

<strong><em>Abstract. </em><strong>Fishers have often complained that standard United Kingdom groundfish survey data do not adequately reflect the grounds targeted by commercial fishers, and hence, scientists tend to make overcautious estimates of fish abundance. Such criticisms are of particular importance if we are to make a creditable attempt to classify potential essential fish habitat (EFH) using existing data from groundfish surveys. Nevertheless, these data sets provide a powerful tool to examine temporal abundance of fish on a large spatial scale. Here, we report a questionnaire-type survey of fishers (2001–2002) that invited them to plot the location of grounds of key importance in the Irish Sea and to comment on key habitat features that might constitute EFH for Atlantic cod <em>Gadus morhua</em>, haddock <em>Melanogrammus aeglefinus</em>, and European whiting <em>Merlangius merlangus</em>. Plotted grounds were cross-checked using records of vessel sightings by fishery protection aircraft (1985–1999). A comparison of the areas of seabed highlighted by fishers and the observations made on groundfish surveys were broadly compatible for all three species of gadoids examined. Both methods indicated important grounds for cod and European whiting off northern Wales, the Ribble estuary, Solway Firth, north of Dublin, and Belfast Lough. The majority of vessel sightings by aircraft did not match the areas plotted by fishers. However, fishing restrictions, adverse weather conditions, and seasonal variation of fish stocks may have forced fishers to operate outside their favored areas on the (few) occasions that they had been recorded by aircraft. Fishers provided biological observations that were consistent among several independent sources (e.g., the occurrence of haddock over brittle star [ophiuroid] beds). We conclude that fishers’ knowledge is a useful supplement to existing data sets that can better focus more detailed EFH studies.

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