Significance of the Functional Response of Predators to Changes in Prey Abundance in Multispecies Virtual Population Analysis

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mskael Hisdén
Keyword(s):  
Population Analysis ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Predation Mortality ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Sea Fish ◽  
Increasing Function

Recent applications of multispecies assessment methods (MSVPA) to North Sea Fish stocks indicate that MSVPA and single-species assessments give highly corrected recruitment estimates. This may be an artifact due to the choice of the relationship between predation mortality and prey cohort size. If the predation mortality is an increasing function of prey cohort size over a certain range of cohort sizes, even a constant predator biomass may cause fluctuations in the number of fish recruiting to the fishable part of the population. Thus the correlation between single-species and multispecies recruitment estimates may be lower than earlier analyses have suggested, and changes in predation mortality may have caused fluctuations in year class strengths which previously have been attributed to unspecified environmental conditions. Because a relatively minor alteration of the predation function can cause such a drastic change in the perceived dynamics of the fish stocks, I suggest that more studies of the predation processes in fish communities are needed before one can hope to gain deeper insights into the recruitment of fish stocks by applying multispecies assessment methods.

Multispecies versus Single-Species Assessment of North Sea Fish Stocks

1987 ◽  
Vol 44 (S2) ◽  
pp. s360-s370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels Daan
Keyword(s):  
Population Analysis ◽  
Stomach Contents ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Stock Management ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Virtual Population Analysis ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Class Strength

Development of multispecies virtual population analysis (MSVPA), which assesses interspecific and intraspecific predation through an analysis of stomach contents, has verified the hypothesis that predation among exploited fish species contributes significantly to their natural mortality and that predation, and thus natural mortality, is inherently variable from year to year. In single-species virtual population analysis (SSVPA), natural mortality is assumed to be constant. MSVPA also suggests that natural mortality among young fish after recruitment is much higher than previously thought. Although catch quotas based on predictions of short-term catches from multispecies assessments would appear to differ little from those derived from single-species assessments, and certain problems remain to be resolved before multispecies assessments can be accepted for fish stock management, the method has considerable implications for management. For instance, it suggests that effects of mesh sizes and bycatch on fisheries need reevaluation and that year class strength may not be as fixed as previously assumed.

Is spawner biomass a sensitive measure of the reproductive and recruitment potential of Northeast Arctic cod?

1998 ◽  
Vol 55 (7) ◽  
pp. 1766-1783 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Tara Marshall ◽  
Olav Sigurd Kjesbu ◽  
Nathalia A Yaragina ◽  
Per Solemdal ◽  
Øyvind Ulltang
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Individual Scale ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

The assumption that spawner biomass is directly proportional to total egg production by fish stocks underlies most spawner-recruit relationships. Despite its importance, this assumption is largely untested. Data describing the reproductive potential of Northeast Arctic (NEA) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were used to test the proportionality assumption for a period showing strong variation in condition and abundance of spawners. At the individual scale, relative fecundity varied with length and condition. This decreases the likelihood that the proportionality assumption is valid. At the stock level, total egg production was estimated (1985-1996) using acoustic estimates of total abundance and demographic information from trawl sampling in combination with year-specific fecundity-length relationships. For NEA cod, spawner biomass estimated by virtual population analysis (VPA) was not proportional to total egg production. Compared with VPA-based estimates of spawner biomass, total egg production is an improved index of recruitment potential because (i) the magnitude of variation observed in total egg production was closer to that observed in recruitment and (ii) the relationship between recruitment at age 1 and total egg production approaches the origin. The results suggest that further progress in explaining recruitment variation will be achieved using more sensitive measures of the true reproductive potential of the stock.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effect of predation mortality on forage species population dynamics in the Northeast US continental shelf ecosystem using multispecies virtual population analysis

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (9) ◽  
pp. 1689-1700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan C. Tyrrell ◽  
Jason S. Link ◽  
Hassan Moustahfid ◽  
William J. Overholtz
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
Virtual Population Analysis ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Predation Mortality ◽  
Forage Species ◽  
Species Population ◽  
Northeast Us

AbstractTyrrell, M. C., Link, J. S., Moustahfid, H., and Overholtz, W. J. 2008. Evaluating the effect of predation mortality on forage species population dynamics in the Northeast US continental shelf ecosystem using multispecies virtual population analysis. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 1689–1700. An expanded version of multispecies virtual population analysis (MSVPA) is used to analyse the effects of predation by 14 key predators on Atlantic herring and Atlantic mackerel in the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem for the period 1982–2002. For herring, MSVPA produced greater abundance estimates than single-species assessments, especially for the youngest age classes. The average rate of predation mortality for herring aged 0 and 1 was also higher than the standard total natural mortality rate (0.2) for the 21-year time frame (0.84–3.2). The same was true for mackerel in this MSVPA (0.37–1.6). Consumptive removals of herring and mackerel generally increased over time. From 1999 to 2001, the biomass removed by predators exceeded each species' commercial landings. The sum of consumption and landings notably exceeded the multispecies maximum sustainable yield for herring for the years 1995–2002 and for mackerel for the period 1999–2002. We highlight the importance of accounting for predation on forage species in the context of changes to the fish community that have taken place in the Northwest Atlantic over the past few decades.

scholarly journals Evaluación de la pesquería de Lutjanus peru (Pisces: Lutjanidae) de . Guerrero, México

1969 ◽  
pp. 571-580
Author(s):  
Apolinar Santamaría ◽  
Ernesto A Chávez
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Small Fish ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Von Bertalanffy ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Von Bertalanffy Growth Model ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Yield Per Recruit

Red snapper (Lutjanus peru) fishery was analyzed from landings and catch records. Stock age structure was reconstructed after the parameter values of the von Bertalanffy growth model, the length-weight relationship, ages and the natural mortality coefficient through each of nine years of cateh records. The Pisat software package was applied to assess population parameters, whose estimates are, for the von Bertalanffy growth model, K = 0. 1 442 to 0.38; lo = -0.2; L = 87 cm; W = 9.4 Kg, and the natural mortality coefficient (M) afier several methods (0. 14 to 0.38). Cohort size was assessed by the virtual population analysis (VPA), estlmating population size in 5.2* 1 06 fish with a biomass of 8 454 tonnes. Current fishing mortality P, ranges from 0.06 to 1 . 1 3, depending upon the chosen M value; according to this, when the M value used is low, the results suggest that the stock is nnderexploited, and vice versa. The yield per recruit model applied suggests improvements to the management strategy. The model indicates recruit overfishing because very small fish are the main target (te

Incorporating predation interactions in a statistical catch-at-age model for a predator-prey system in the eastern Bering Sea

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (8) ◽  
pp. 1865-1873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Jurado-Molina ◽  
Patricia A Livingston ◽  
James N Ianelli
Keyword(s):  
Bering Sea ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Virtual Population Analysis ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Statistical Assumptions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Management Advice

Virtual population analysis and the statistical catch-at-age methods are common stock assessment models used for management advice. The difference between them is the statistical assumptions allowing the fitting of parameters by considering how errors enter into the models and the data sources for the estimation. Fishery managers are being asked to consider multispecies interactions in their decisions. One option to achieve this goal is the multispecies virtual population analysis (MSVPA); however, its lack of statistical assumptions does not allow the use of tools used in single-species stock assessment. We chose to use a two-species system, walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), to incorporate the predation equations from MSVPA into an age-structured multispecies statistical model (MSM). Results suggest that both models produced similar estimates of suitability coefficients and predation mortalities. The adult population estimates from the single-species stock assessment and MSM were also comparable. MSM provides a measure of parameter uncertainty, which is not available with the MSVPA technologies. MSM is an important advancement in providing advice to fisheries managers because it incorporates the standard tools such as Bayesian methods and decision analysis into a multispecies context, helping to establish useful scenarios for management in the Bering Sea.

scholarly journals The effect of interannual variation in growth and condition on haddock recruitment

1999 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Tara Marshall ◽  
Kenneth T Frank
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Indirect Approach ◽  
Virtual Population Analysis ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between recruitment and spawner biomass assumes that estimates of spawner biomass are proportional to total egg production by the stock. The validity of this assumption is in question for long-lived gadoid stocks; however, estimating total egg production independently of spawner biomass is seldom feasible. An alternative approach is to examine correlations between recruitment and variables likely to be proxies for total egg production by the stock. This indirect approach was used for haddock on the Scotian Shelf. Indices of growth (mean length at age-4) and condition (weight at 50 cm) were used as proxies for the reproductive potential of individual spawners. Both variables were positively correlated with recruitment over a 3-decade period (1964-1995). During the same time period, there was no relationship between recruitment and spawner biomass estimated by Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). This is further evidence that VPA-based spawner biomass is a poor index of the true reproductive potential of the stock. The results highlight the need to develop more accurate/precise measures of total egg production for use in recruitment research.

scholarly journals Implementing ecosystem-based fisheries management: from single-species to integrated ecosystem assessment and advice for Baltic Sea fish stocks

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (5) ◽  
pp. 1187-1197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Möllmann ◽  
Martin Lindegren ◽  
Thorsten Blenckner ◽  
Lena Bergström ◽  
Michele Casini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Fisheries Management ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Clupea Harengus ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management ◽  
Sea Fish

Abstract Theory behind ecosystem-based management (EBM) and ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is now well developed. However, the implementation of EBFM exemplified by fisheries management in Europe is still largely based on single-species assessments and ignores the wider ecosystem context and impact. The reason for the lack or slow implementation of EBM and specifically EBFM is a lack of a coherent strategy. Such a strategy is offered by recently developed integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs), a formal synthesis tool to quantitatively analyse information on relevant natural and socio-economic factors, in relation to specified management objectives. Here, we focus on implementing the IEA approach for Baltic Sea fish stocks. We combine both tactical and strategic management aspects into a single strategy that supports the present Baltic Sea fish stock advice, conducted by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We first review the state of the art in the development of IEA within the current management framework. We then outline and discuss an approach that integrates fish stock advice and IEAs for the Baltic Sea. We intentionally focus on the central Baltic Sea and its three major fish stocks cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus), and sprat (Sprattus sprattus), but emphasize that our approach may be applied to other parts and stocks of the Baltic, as well as other ocean areas.

Estimating predation mortality in the Georges Bank fish community

2001 ◽  
Vol 58 (5) ◽  
pp. 908-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tien-Shui Tsou ◽  
Jeremy S Collie
Keyword(s):  
Input Data ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Fractional Factorial ◽  
Total Biomass ◽  
Georges Bank ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Gamma Distributions ◽  
Virtual Population ◽  
Predation Mortality ◽  
Consumption Rates

Multispecies virtual population analysis (MSVPA) is one of the most successful methods of including predation in fishery models. By applying MSVPA to nine important fish species on Georges Bank, we estimated predation mortality of prey species, fishing mortality, and population abundance from 1978 to 1992. One of the inputs to the MSVPA, relative stomach content, was estimated by fitting gamma distributions to the logarithmic predator-to-prey size ratios. Chi-square tests indicated that the gamma distributions fit the observed ratios well. Predation mortality was highest at ages 0 and 1. Total biomass of all species remained relatively constant with decreasing predator biomass and increasing prey biomass. MSVPA requires extensive input data, and the uncertainty in the inputs will propagate into the model output. The sensitivity of MSVPA to perturbations in the inputs was assessed with a two-level fractional factorial design. Results of the sensitivity test indicated that MSVPA outputs were most sensitive to predator consumption rates and terminal fishing mortalities. With ±25% perturbations to the input parameters, MSVPA outputs varied within ±10% of the levels from the base run. Therefore, MSVPA appears to be relatively robust to uncertainty in the input data.

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