Abstract. Quasi-periodic variations in solar activity and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on
decadal and bidecadal timescales have been suggested as a climate forcing
mechanism for many regions on Earth. One of these regions is southern Brazil,
where the lowest values during the last century were observed for the total
geomagnetic field intensity at the Earth's surface. These low values are due
to the passage of the center of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA),
which crosses the Brazilian territory from east to west following a latitude
of ∼ 26∘. In areas with low geomagnetic intensity, such as the
SAMA, the incidence of GCRs is increased. Consequently, possible climatic
effects related to the GCRs tend to be maximized in this region. In this work,
we investigate the relationship between the ∼ 11-year and
∼ 22-year cycles that are related to solar activity and GCRs and the
annual average temperature recorded between 1936 and 2014 at two weather
stations, both located near a latitude of 26∘ S but at different
longitudes. The first of these stations (Torres – TOR) is located in the
coastal region, and the other (Iraí – IRA) is located in the interior,
around 450 km from the Atlantic Ocean. Sunspot data and the solar modulation
potential for cosmic rays were used as proxies for the solar activity and the
GCRs, respectively. Our investigation of the influence of decadal and
bidecadal cycles in temperature data was carried out using the wavelet
transform coherence (WTC) spectrum. The results indicate that periodicities of 11 years
may have continuously modulated the climate at TOR via a nonlinear mechanism,
while at IRA, the effects of this 11-year modulation period were
intermittent. Four temperature maxima, separated by around 20 years, were
detected in the same years at both weather stations. These temperature maxima
are almost coincident with the maxima of the odd solar cycles. Furthermore,
these maxima occur after transitions from even to odd solar cycles, that is,
after some years of intense GCR flux. The obtained results offer indirect
mathematical evidence that solar activity and GCR variations contributed to
climatic changes in southern Brazil during the last century. A comparison of
the results obtained for the two weather stations indicates that the SAMA
also contributes indirectly to these temperature variations. The contribution
of other mechanisms also related to solar activity cannot be excluded. Keywords. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology)
Effects of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray cycles on the modulation of the annual average temperature at two sites in southern Brazil
