An Examination of the Free Cash Flow and Information/Signaling Hypotheses Using Unexpected Dividend Changes Inferred from Option and Stock Prices: The Case of Regular Dividend Increases

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (03) ◽  
pp. 563-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Syan Chen ◽  
Kuei-Chin Fu
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
High Q ◽  
Information Signaling ◽  
Dividend Increases ◽  
Free Cash Flow Hypothesis

This paper measures unexpected dividend changes in testing the free cash flow and information/signaling hypotheses using the Bar–Yosef/Sarig method. The empirical findings reveal the following: (i) The association between announcement period abnormal returns and the cash level is significantly positive for low q firms; (ii) The positive association between announcement period, abnormal returns, and the cash level is stronger in low q than in high q firms for most regressions; (iii) Low q firms reduce their capital and research and development (R&D) expenditures during the four fiscal years following dividend increase announcements. Our results are consistent with the free cash flow hypothesis.

The Announcement Effects of Restricted Open Market Share Repurchases: Experience from Taiwan

2004 ◽  
Vol 07 (03) ◽  
pp. 335-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miawjane Chen ◽  
Chao-Liang Chen ◽  
Wan-Hsiu Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Share Repurchase ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Announcement Effects ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Repurchase Announcements ◽  
Free Cash Flow Hypothesis ◽  
Managerial Choice ◽  
Signaling Hypothesis

In this paper we empirically examine the effects of 451 restricted share repurchase announcements in Taiwan. Their 3-day cumulative abnormal returns are all significantly positive for different purposes and Tobin's qs. However, there is no significant difference in abnormal returns for different repurchasing purposes. This indicates that mandating a purpose is not really an effective tool for limiting managerial choice. Moreover, when the related variables are controlled, the other empirical results we conducted indicate that, at least in Taiwan, the traditional signaling hypothesis and the free cash flow hypothesis can function simultaneously to explain the effects of the restricted repurchase announcements.

The Investment Strategy of Free Cash Flow Multiple

1998 ◽  
Vol 01 (03) ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Liluan Chu
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Daily Returns

This study applies the investment strategy recommended by Hackel and Livnat (1993), the free cash flow (FCF) multiple, in Taiwan after the promulgation of Taiwan's FASB No. 95 in 1989. The results indicate that the portfolio with the higher FCF/Price ratio significantly rewards returns in excess of the market. Instead of using earnings/price ratio in the forming portfolio, the study shows that the decile portfolio with the highest FCF/Price ratio significantly outperforms the market during the period from 1990 to 1994. If daily returns are adjusted by the market model, the decile portfolio presents an average 20.5268% cumulative abnormal returns in the testing period, which is statistically higher than zero. The results also indicate that the annual cumulative abnormal returns of the FCF/Price ratio based portfolio are all positive. The annual results also show that the decile portfolio performs much better when the market declines significantly. The outperformance still exists if returns are adjusted by the market without considering risk. The decile portfolio presents an average 8.198% abnormal with a significant t value returns. The superiority of free cash flow in forming portfolio exists but with a decreasing trend when the portfolio is enlarged. The result implies that either the firms with extremely high FCF/Price ratios are undervalued by the market or the market responses slowly to their superior performance in cash flows. The finding supports Hackel and Livnat's (1993) arguments. It suggests that free cash flow is useful information especially for the forming portfolio. The results also enhance the usefulness of the statement of cash flow.

scholarly journals Performance Evaluation of Stocks’ Valuation Models at MSE

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Zoran Ivanovski ◽  
Zoran Narasanov ◽  
Nadica Ivanovska
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Relative Valuation ◽  
Dcf Model

Abstract Subject and purpose of work: The main task of this paper is to examine the proximity of valuations generated by different valuation models to stock prices in order to investigate their reliability at Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and to present alternative “scenario” methodology for discounted free cash flow to firm valuation. Materials and methods: By using publicly available data from MSE we are calculating stock prices with three stock valuation models: Discounted Free Cash Flow, Dividend Discount and Relative Valuation. Results: The evaluation of performance of three stock valuation models at the MSE identified that model of Price Multiplies (P/E and other profitability ratios) offer reliable stock values determination and lower level of price errors compared with the average stocks market prices. Conclusions: The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model provides values close to average market prices, while Dividend Discount (DDM) valuation model generally mispriced stocks at MSE. We suggest the use of DCF model combined with relative valuation models for accurate stocks’ values calculation at MSE.

scholarly journals Information Content of Dividend Changes in an Emerging Market

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Adiana Hiau Abdullah ◽  
Rosemaliza Abdul Rashid ◽  
Yusnidah Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Agency Cost ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Dividend Announcements ◽  
Stock Market Reactions ◽  
Relationship Of

Supports on the free cash flow and agency cost theory from dividend announcements studies have been heavily discussed in the Western literature, but they have not been given much attention in the Asian countries, particularly in Malaysia. This paper focuses on examining the relationship of the stock market reactions due to dividend announcements and ten company-specific variables identified from the literature as potential determinants. The results from cross-sectional and stepwise regressions both showed that none of the determining variables could explain the variation in cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for the increasing dividend announcements. For decreasing dividend announcements, both regressions identified the degree of anticipation to be significant and inversely related to CARs. In addition, the indigenous population ownership, which is a unique characteristic of the Malaysian equity market is also found to be significant in influencing the effect of decreasing dividend announcements. The findings provide no support for the free cash flow and agency cost theory.  

Determinants of the Choice between Alternative Share Repurchase Methods

1997 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikos Vafeas
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Share Repurchase ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Tender Offer ◽  
Managerial Entrenchment ◽  
Inside Ownership ◽  
Information Signaling ◽  
Flow Information

This study provides an empirical examination of the determinants of the choice between alternative share repurchase methods. It is shown that the likelihood of selecting a self-tender offer over an open market share repurchase increases with the repurchasing firm's agency costs of free cash flow, inside ownership percentage, leverage, prebuyback stock performance, and the magnitude of cash involved in the transaction. The empirical evidence is consistent with the free cash flow, information-signaling, and managerial entrenchment hypotheses contributing toward explaining the choice of repurchase method among firms. The study concludes that the two repurchase methods appear to serve different purposes for the repurchasing firm.

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