The Investment Strategy of Free Cash Flow Multiple

1998 ◽  
Vol 01 (03) ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Liluan Chu
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Daily Returns

This study applies the investment strategy recommended by Hackel and Livnat (1993), the free cash flow (FCF) multiple, in Taiwan after the promulgation of Taiwan's FASB No. 95 in 1989. The results indicate that the portfolio with the higher FCF/Price ratio significantly rewards returns in excess of the market. Instead of using earnings/price ratio in the forming portfolio, the study shows that the decile portfolio with the highest FCF/Price ratio significantly outperforms the market during the period from 1990 to 1994. If daily returns are adjusted by the market model, the decile portfolio presents an average 20.5268% cumulative abnormal returns in the testing period, which is statistically higher than zero. The results also indicate that the annual cumulative abnormal returns of the FCF/Price ratio based portfolio are all positive. The annual results also show that the decile portfolio performs much better when the market declines significantly. The outperformance still exists if returns are adjusted by the market without considering risk. The decile portfolio presents an average 8.198% abnormal with a significant t value returns. The superiority of free cash flow in forming portfolio exists but with a decreasing trend when the portfolio is enlarged. The result implies that either the firms with extremely high FCF/Price ratios are undervalued by the market or the market responses slowly to their superior performance in cash flows. The finding supports Hackel and Livnat's (1993) arguments. It suggests that free cash flow is useful information especially for the forming portfolio. The results also enhance the usefulness of the statement of cash flow.

scholarly journals Stock repurchases by real estate investment trusts (REITS), stockholder returns and underperformance, free cash flow and capital restructuring motives

2007 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 214-218
Author(s):  
R. S. Rathinasamy
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Real Estate Investment Trusts ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Stock Repurchases ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
Investment Trusts

Returns accruing to the stockholders of 149 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) following the announcement of stock repurchases covering a five-year period from 1998 to 2002 are analyzed. Standard market model (Brown and Warner, 1985) was used to compute the excess returns. Results show that stockholders earn significant average abnormal returns (AARs) and cumulative average returns (CARs) following stock buy-backs. Further, evidence is uncovered providing support for various motives for REITs buyback, namely excess free cash flow, under-performance and capital restructuring motives.

Usefulness of Accounting Estimates

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Li Eng ◽  
Thanyaluk Vichitsarawong
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
China And India ◽  
Accounting Estimates ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Over Time

This is an exploratory study to examine the quality or usefulness of accounting estimates of companies in China and India over time. Specifically, we examine how well the accounting estimates are able to predict future earnings and cash flows during the period 2003-2013. The results for India indicate that the out-of-sample earnings and cash flow predictions derived are more accurate and more efficient in the more recent period (2010-2013) than the earlier period (2003-2006). In contrast, the out-of-sample earnings and cash flow predictions for China are generally more biased, less accurate, and less efficient. The results indicate abnormal returns earned on hedge portfolios formed on earnings (cash flow) predictions for India in the recent period. In contrast, none of the portfolios for China earn positive returns. The results suggest that the accounting estimates in India in recent years have become better predictors of future earnings and cash flow than accounting estimates in the earlier period. However, the accounting estimates in China are not relevant for predicting earnings and cash flows over the years in the sample period.

Corporate cash flow and dividends smoothing: a panel data analysis at Bursa Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apedzan Emmanuel Kighir ◽  
Normah Haji Omar ◽  
Norhayati Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Payout Policy ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate and find out the impact of cash flow on changes in dividend payout decisions among non-financial firms quoted at Bursa Malaysia as compared to earnings. There has been renewed debate in recent finance and accounting literature concerning the key determinants of changes in dividends payout policy decisions in some jurisdictions. The conclusion in some is that firms base their dividend decisions on cash flows rather than published earnings. Design/methodology/approach – The research made use of panel data from 1999 to 2012 at Bursa Malaysia, using generalized method of moments as the main method of analysis. Findings – The research finds that Malaysia non-financial firms consider current earnings more important than current cash flow while making dividends payout decisions, and prior year cash flows are considered more important in dividends decisions than prior year earnings. We also found support for Jensen (1986) in Malaysia on agency theory, that managers of firms pay dividends from free cash flow to reduce agency conflicts. Practical implications – The research concludes that Malaysian non-financial firms use current earnings and less of current cash flow in making changes in dividends policy. The policy implication is that current earnings are dividends smoothing agents, and the more they are considered in dividends payout decisions, the less of dividends smoothing. Social implications – If dividends smoothing is encouraged, it could lead to dividends-based earnings management. Originality/value – The research is our novel contribution of assisting investors and government in making informed decisions regarding dividends policy in Malaysia.

Financial sustainability in Italian farms: an analysis of the FADN sample

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Dono ◽  
Rebecca Buttinelli ◽  
Raffaele Cortignani
Keyword(s):  
Rural Development ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Random Effects Models ◽  
Financial Variables

PurposeThe paper examines the factors that influence the production of cash flows in a sample of Italian farm accountancy data network (FADN) farms to generate information useful for calibrating policies to support farmers' investments.Design/methodology/approachAn econometric analysis on the sample estimates the influence of structural, economic, commercial and financial variables on CAFFE, i.e. the cash flow that includes the payments to the farmer's resources and the free cash flow on equity (FCFE). The econometric problem of endogeneity is treated by adopting the Hausman test to choose between fixed and random effects models. The results for Italian agriculture and its types of farming (TFs) are examined based on the FCFE/capital depreciation ratio, where FCFE subtracts from CAFFE the opportunity cost payments to the farmer's resources. This ratio identifies TFs with problems of sustainability of the production system.FindingsThe results show that increasing the productive dimension, in particular the endowment of farmland and working capital, is still essential to stimulate the production of cash flows of Italian agriculture. Without this growth, increasing the depreciable capital base is ineffective. FCFE does not compensate for depreciation in several TFs, which in various cases could also improve by improving economic efficiency and commercial position.Research limitations/implicationsAssessing the factors that most influence cash flows can help to better calibrate rural development measures to the territories and farming types that most need public support. Our analysis procedure can be applied to all production systems equipped with farm accounting networks; however, the criteria for rewarding farmer resources and calculating the replacement value of agricultural capital need to be better discussed.Originality/valueThe specification of rural development policies rarely takes into account the financial sustainability conditions of farms, as well as the factors that determine them, in defining the support parameters and the selection criteria for funding. Our approach, based on the analysis of FADN data, considers these aspects and provides ideas for better calibrating public support for investments among agricultural territories, sectors and types of farms.

An Examination of the Free Cash Flow and Information/Signaling Hypotheses Using Unexpected Dividend Changes Inferred from Option and Stock Prices: The Case of Regular Dividend Increases

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (03) ◽  
pp. 563-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Syan Chen ◽  
Kuei-Chin Fu
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
High Q ◽  
Information Signaling ◽  
Dividend Increases ◽  
Free Cash Flow Hypothesis

This paper measures unexpected dividend changes in testing the free cash flow and information/signaling hypotheses using the Bar–Yosef/Sarig method. The empirical findings reveal the following: (i) The association between announcement period abnormal returns and the cash level is significantly positive for low q firms; (ii) The positive association between announcement period, abnormal returns, and the cash level is stronger in low q than in high q firms for most regressions; (iii) Low q firms reduce their capital and research and development (R&D) expenditures during the four fiscal years following dividend increase announcements. Our results are consistent with the free cash flow hypothesis.

IMMEDIATE AND LONGER-TERM STOCK PRICE DYNAMICS FOLLOWING LARGE STOCK PRICE CHANGES

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050002
Author(s):  
ANDREY KUDRYAVTSEV
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Price Reversal

The study explores the correlation between the immediate and the longer-term stock returns following large daily price moves. Following the previous literature, which documents a tendency for price reversals after initial large price moves, I suggest that if a large stock price move is immediately followed by a short-term price drift, then it may indicate that the company-specific shock is more completely incorporated in the stock price, significantly increasing the probability of subsequent longer-term price reversal. Analyzing a vast sample of large stock price moves, I document that negative (positive) longer-term stock price reversals after large price increases (decreases) are significantly more pronounced if the latter are immediately followed by relatively high (low) short-term cumulative abnormal returns, that is, by short-term price drifts. The effect remains significant after accounting for additional company-specific (size, market model beta, historical, or conditional volatility) and event-specific (stock’s return and trading volume on the event day) factors.

Currency returns during democratic transition: evidence from Tunisia

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 966-979
Author(s):  
Ghadi Saad ◽  
Taoufik Bouraoui
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the question whether democratic transition elections influence currency returns. Also, the paper examines the behavior of the currency market around these elections in Tunisia. Design/methodology/approach Empirical data are collected from the International Monetary Fund, the Central Bank of Tunisia and the Tunisian stock market websites. The paper employs event study analysis using a market model and investigates abnormal currency returns around the four election events that occurred during the period of democratic transition in Tunisia (2011–2015). A robustness test is also conducted to control for monetary policy effects. Findings The results indicate that democratic transition does impact currency returns. The authors did not find any significant effect on the events dates (t0). However, event windows around the elections days reacted significantly to the events. The authors notice a significant decrease in cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) at event periods leading up to the elections. Post-event windows perceived negative CARs in the first and second election, and positive CARs in the last two elections. The authors also find that the change in the victors of the elections does not cause major differences to CARs. Further, the authors do not find significant results when controlling for inflation and interest rate. Originality/value There is no evidence yet on how democratic transition elections can affect currency returns. Given that currency is a leading indicator of the performance of the financial sector, this paper should provide policymakers with new evidence on the response of currency returns to democratic transition.

scholarly journals Effect of Operating Cash Flow on Stock Return of Firms Listed In Nairobi Security Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-35
Author(s):  
Samoei Ben Kipngetich ◽  
Joel Tenai ◽  
Andrew Kimwolo
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Random Effect Model ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Operating Cash Flow

The main aim of the paper was to establish the effect of operating cash flow on stock return of firms listed in NSE. The study was informed by Free Cash Flow (FCF) theory. Census survey was adapted to review financial statements for 29 listed non-financial firms at NSE that had consistent data for all the study variables. Secondary data was extracted for 12 years from 2007-2019 with the aid of a data collection sheet. Explanatory research design which is panel in nature was followed by this study. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used in data analysis. Panel data regression was used to make inferences and test research hypothesis. Fixed and Random effects methods were used to analyze the balanced panel data using STATA statistical package and Hausman test established that Random effect model was the most ideal method to analyze data in this study. The findings indicated that operating cash flow positively and significantly influenced the stock returns for firms listed at NSE. The study concludes that operating cash flow information affects stock returns. Therefore, the study advocates for firms to increase their levels of operating cash flows through prudent utilization of cash resources since it enhances the stock returns.

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