The impact of predicting attacker tools in security risk assessments

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezequiel Gutesman ◽  
Ariel Waissbein
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
The Impact

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals The belief that politics drive scientific research & its impact on COVID-19 risk assessment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249937
Author(s):  
Danielle M. McLaughlin ◽  
Jack Mewhirter ◽  
Rebecca Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Preventative Health ◽  
The Impact

We use survey data collected from 12,037 US respondents to examine the extent to which the American public believes that political motives drive the manner in which scientific research is conducted and assess the impact that such beliefs have on COVID-19 risk assessments. We find that this is a commonly held belief and that it is negatively associated with risk assessments. Public distrust in scientists could complicate efforts to combat COVID-19, given that risk assessments are strongly associated with one’s propensity to adopt preventative health measures.

Hormesis - Implications for risk assessment caloric intake (body weight) as an exemplar

1998 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 454-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Turturro ◽  
Bruce Hass ◽  
Ronald W Hart
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Caloric Intake ◽  
Toxicity Testing ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Hormetic Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hormetic Response

Hormesis can be considered as a parameter which has a non-monotonic relationship with some endpoint. Since caloric intake is such a parameter, and the impact of this parameter on risk assessment has been fairly well characterized, it can provide clues as to how to integrate the information from a hormetic parameter into risk assessments for toxicants. Based on the work with caloric intake, one could: (a) define a biomarker for hormetic effect; (b) integrate specific information on when in the animals lifespan the parameter is active to influence parameters such as survival; (c) evaluate component effects of the overall hormetic response; and (d) address the consequences of a non-monotonic relationship between the hormetic parameter and endpoints critical for risk assessment. These impacts on risk assessments have been characterized for chronic tests, but are also true for short-term tests. A priority is the characterization of the dose-response curves for hormetic parameters. This quantification will be critical in utilizing them in risk assessment. With this information, one could better quantitatively address the changes one expects to result from the hormetic parameter, and limit the uncertainty and variability which occurs in toxicity testing.

Comparing co-production approaches to dynamic risk assessments in a forensic intellectual disability population: outcomes of a clinical pilot

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah J. Morris ◽  
Elanor L. Webb ◽  
Inga Stewart ◽  
Jordan Galsworthy ◽  
Paul Wallang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Intellectual Disability ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Management Plan ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
The Impact

Purpose A co-produced clinical practice that aims to improve outcomes through a partnership with service users is becoming increasingly important in intellectual disability (ICD) services, yet these approaches are under-evaluated in forensic settings. This study aims to explore and compare the feasibility of two approaches to co-production in the completion of dynamic risk assessments and management plans in a secure setting. Design/methodology/approach A convenience sample of adults admitted to a secure specialist forensic ICD service (N = 54) completed the short dynamic risk scale (SDRS) and drafted risk management plans under one of two conditions. In the first condition, participants rated the SDRS and risk management plan first, separately from the multidisciplinary team (MDT). In the second condition, participants and MDTs rated the SDRS and risk management plan together. Findings In total, 35 (65%) participants rated their risk assessments and 25 (47%) completed their risk management plans. Participants who rated their risk assessments separately from the MDT were significantly more likely to complete the SDRS (p = 0.025) and draft their risk management plans (p = 0.003). When rated separately, MDT scorers recorded significantly higher total SDRS scores compared to participants (p = 0.009). A series of Mann-Whitney U tests revealed significant differences between MDT and participant ratings on questions that required greater skills in abstraction and social reasoning, as well as sexual behaviour and self-harm. Originality/value Detained participants with an intellectual disabilities will engage in their dynamic risk assessment and management plan processes. The study demonstrates the impact of different co-production methodologies on engagement and highlights areas for future research pertaining to co-production.

Using Indicators to Monitor Security Risk in Systems of Systems

2012 ◽  
pp. 256-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olav Skjelkvåle Ligaarden ◽  
Atle Refsdal ◽  
Ketil Stølen
Keyword(s):  
Power Supply ◽  
System Of Systems ◽  
Dynamic Monitoring ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Dynamic Nature ◽  
Systems Of Systems ◽  
It Service ◽  
The Impact

Systems of systems are collections of systems interconnected through the exchange of services. Their often complex service dependencies and very dynamic nature make them hard to analyze and predict with respect to quality in general, and security in particular. In this chapter, the authors put forward a method for the capture and monitoring of impact of service dependencies on the security of provided services. The method is divided into four main steps focusing on documenting the system of systems and IT service dependencies, establishing the impact of service dependencies on risk to security of provided services, identifying measureable indicators for dynamic monitoring, and specifying their design and deployment, respectively. The authors illustrate the method in an example-driven fashion based on a case within power supply.

scholarly journals The Impact of Failure Types in Construction Production Systems on Economic Risk Assessments in the Bidding Phase

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milan Mirkovic
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
System Failure ◽  
Repair Rate ◽  
Construction Machinery ◽  
Modified Method ◽  
Type Of Failure ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the paper is to research and analyze the impact of the type of failure on economic risks in the bidding phase, as the most important part in the management of construction projects. The survey included the impact of risk on the process of determining unit prices from the perspective of a potential contractor. Also, the failure rate and repair rate of the 34 machines from the machine park of the company for road construction were researched. On the basis of obtained parameters and depreciation periods, the operational availability of components of construction production systems was determined. The proposed methodology for estimating impact of the availability function is a modified method of the frequency balancing. It has been tested on a concrete project from the practice in the process of harmonizing construction norms of time that preceded the final adoption of the unit prices. Differences in prices are results of the system failure of construction machinery and plants and have justified a hypothesis of obtaining more realistic costs that can occur in the projects.

Discussion of “Audit Firm Assessments of Cyber-Security Risk: Evidence from Audit Fees and SEC Comment Letters”

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (03) ◽  
pp. 1950018
Author(s):  
Aaron Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Cyber Security ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Audit Fees ◽  
Privacy Rights ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Written Comments ◽  
Audit Fee ◽  
Comment Letters ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Security Incidents

The study by Rosati, Gogolin, and Lynn (in this issue) examines the impact of cyber-security incidents on audit fees. Using audit fee as a proxy for audit effort and risk, it takes 168 cyber-security incidents during 2005–2014 that are collected by the Privacy Rights Clearinghouse and documents that breached firms are charged higher audit fees. In addition, the authors find that the increase in audit fee is only temporary and exists during the [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] window surrounding the breach. Finally, this study also finds that the audit fee increases post SEC comment letters that are related to cyber-security incidents. Overall, my assessment of the paper is that it is well executed and well written. More importantly, it adheres well to its stated research question. The following are my written comments, which are based on my discussion of this paper at the 30th Annual TJIA Conference, regarding this paper’s contribution, framing, and empirical execution.

Unjust Disparities? The Impact of Race on Juvenile Risk Assessment Outcomes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 423-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Black Youth ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Racial Biases ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Robust Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Research on risk assessments has illustrated many utilitarian purposes of these tools, including the robust prediction of recidivism and uniformity in correctional decision making. Recently, however, Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder vocalized his position that actuarial risk assessments could be unintentionally contributing to disproportionate minority contact in the correctional system. This study used data from approximately 2,600 juvenile delinquents assessed with the Ohio Youth Assessment System–Disposition Instrument to examine these claims across subsamples of White and Black youth. Bivariate and multivariate analyses indicated that the instrument predicted recidivism similarly across the two groups. There were slightly more prediction errors for Black youth than White youth; however, these differences may be the result of methodological factors rather than empirical realities. The article concluded with a discussion of the implications that potential racial biases have on risk assessment research and practice.

Method for Estimating the Domino Effect in Quantitative Assessment

2013 ◽  
Vol 319 ◽  
pp. 536-540
Author(s):  
Ming Liang Chen ◽  
Zhi Qiang Geng ◽  
Qun Xiong Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Process ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Process Industry ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
Chemical Process Industry ◽  
Industrial Sites ◽  
The Impact

Accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents in the chemical process industry. These chains of accidents may lead to catastrophic consequences and may affect not only the industrial sites, but also people, environment and economy. However, quantitative risk assessments do not usually take the domino effect into account in a detailed, systematic way, mostly because of its complexity and the difficulties involved in its incorporation. A method for quantitative assessment of domino effects is presented. The consequence and probability of a certain accident can be estimated. The domino sequences from the initial accident to the last accident can be obtained. The method has been implemented in a case study. The results show that it can indeed be used to estimate the impact of the domino effect in quantitative assessment.

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