Hormesis - Implications for risk assessment caloric intake (body weight) as an exemplar

1998 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 454-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Turturro ◽  
Bruce Hass ◽  
Ronald W Hart
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Caloric Intake ◽  
Toxicity Testing ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Hormetic Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hormetic Response

Hormesis can be considered as a parameter which has a non-monotonic relationship with some endpoint. Since caloric intake is such a parameter, and the impact of this parameter on risk assessment has been fairly well characterized, it can provide clues as to how to integrate the information from a hormetic parameter into risk assessments for toxicants. Based on the work with caloric intake, one could: (a) define a biomarker for hormetic effect; (b) integrate specific information on when in the animals lifespan the parameter is active to influence parameters such as survival; (c) evaluate component effects of the overall hormetic response; and (d) address the consequences of a non-monotonic relationship between the hormetic parameter and endpoints critical for risk assessment. These impacts on risk assessments have been characterized for chronic tests, but are also true for short-term tests. A priority is the characterization of the dose-response curves for hormetic parameters. This quantification will be critical in utilizing them in risk assessment. With this information, one could better quantitatively address the changes one expects to result from the hormetic parameter, and limit the uncertainty and variability which occurs in toxicity testing.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals The belief that politics drive scientific research & its impact on COVID-19 risk assessment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249937
Author(s):  
Danielle M. McLaughlin ◽  
Jack Mewhirter ◽  
Rebecca Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Preventative Health ◽  
The Impact

We use survey data collected from 12,037 US respondents to examine the extent to which the American public believes that political motives drive the manner in which scientific research is conducted and assess the impact that such beliefs have on COVID-19 risk assessments. We find that this is a commonly held belief and that it is negatively associated with risk assessments. Public distrust in scientists could complicate efforts to combat COVID-19, given that risk assessments are strongly associated with one’s propensity to adopt preventative health measures.

Does caloric restriction induce hormesis?

2000 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 320-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Turturro ◽  
B S Hass ◽  
R W Hart
Keyword(s):  
Caloric Restriction ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Nonhuman Primates ◽  
Proliferative Potential ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Aging Research ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Higher Doses ◽  
Hormetic Response ◽  
Selection Of

The question of whether caloric restriction (CR) is hormetic is addressed in terms of two common defini-tions of the term. In terms of the older definition, i.e., a growth-stimulatory effect when lower doses of a compound which resulted in growth inhibition at higher doses, CR is better characterized as a co-hormetic (i.e., a paradigm which at relatively “low doses,” in combina-tion with some stimulus, will evince increased growth (proliferation) and at higher “doses” will inhibit this increased proliferation) rather than a hormetic agent. Mechanisms such as cellular selection of cellular subpopulations, increases in receptor efficiency, and preservation of cellular proliferative potential can inter-act with agents and produce increased growth as long as the CR is not too severe. In terms of a broader definition, i.e., nonmonotonic dose-response behavior of a compound for any adverse response, CR appears to be hormetic, both as a result of body weight (BW) loss and other potential mechanisms. The impact of changes in BW, or frank CR, can be considered a component of every test for hormesis, and is thus capable for interaction with any other agent. The changes that BW loss (or CR) induce are so profound that any aspect of an agent's action-metabolism, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics-can modulate the response of an organism to an agent. Similarly, other effects of a chemical that induce BW loss, e.g., physical activity or temperature dysregulation, can also induce dose-response curves that appear hormetic. The interaction of the hormetic agents of BW loss and CR can influence agent tests. Controlling these factors may make it possible to dissect the key components of a hormetic response. In addition, the effects of CR or BW loss appear to extrapolate well across species [Colman R, Kemnitz JW. Aging experi-ments using nonhuman primates. In: Yu BP (Ed), Methods in Aging Research. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 1999, pp. 249-267]. Thus there is some reason to believe that these hormetic factors may be important for humans, and may already be a factor for tests of potentially adverse agents already conducted in humans.

Unjust Disparities? The Impact of Race on Juvenile Risk Assessment Outcomes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 423-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Black Youth ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Racial Biases ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Robust Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Research on risk assessments has illustrated many utilitarian purposes of these tools, including the robust prediction of recidivism and uniformity in correctional decision making. Recently, however, Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder vocalized his position that actuarial risk assessments could be unintentionally contributing to disproportionate minority contact in the correctional system. This study used data from approximately 2,600 juvenile delinquents assessed with the Ohio Youth Assessment System–Disposition Instrument to examine these claims across subsamples of White and Black youth. Bivariate and multivariate analyses indicated that the instrument predicted recidivism similarly across the two groups. There were slightly more prediction errors for Black youth than White youth; however, these differences may be the result of methodological factors rather than empirical realities. The article concluded with a discussion of the implications that potential racial biases have on risk assessment research and practice.

scholarly journals Improving risk assessments for CAMHS admissions at Great Ormond Street Hospital

BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (S1) ◽  
pp. S107-S107
Author(s):  
Lisanne Stock ◽  
Sacha Evans
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Junior Doctors ◽  
List Type ◽  
Street Hospital ◽  
Great Ormond Street Hospital ◽  
Early Risk ◽  
Audit Cycle ◽  
Working Day ◽  
The Impact

AimsDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, admissions to the Mildred Creek Unit (MCU), an Inpatient CAMHS Ward at Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) changed.The MCU is a 7–10 bed unit for children aged 7–15 years based on therapeutic milieu principles. The ward accepts patients via a planned national referral pathway, however, during the COVID-19 pandemic, patients were admitted as emergencies and consequently risk assessments were missed. Risk assessment is important in all admissions and as the MCU is not a locked unit, early risk assessment is particularly important.We aimed to review whether risk assessment occurred within one working day of admission, as suggested by the ward risk assessment policy, and if this was not the case, our aim was to ensure that all risk assessments took place within this period via our audit interventions.MethodWe collated data looking at the time between admission to GOSH and the date at which first risk assessments took place. We then put in place three interventions. 1)Posters prompting doctors who were providing on-call liaison input to perform a risk assessment within one working day of admission.2)New junior doctors were provided with written and verbal information to emphasise the importance of early risk assessment.3)Guidelines also highlight that assessment of risk may need to be on-going. We therefore added a prompt section in the weekly ward round proforma with the aim of reducing the interval between risk assessments during admission.The first audit cycle was conducted on the 3/8/2020 and the second on the 28/11/21 to allow for a comparative number of inpatients between the first and second audit cycle.ResultWe found these interventions significantly reduced delays in risk assessments. Prior to the audit's first cycle the average delay between admission to GOSH/MCU and a risk assessment was 2 weeks. After the interventions there were no patients whose risk assessment was delayed outside the next working day parameters.ConclusionThis full cycle audit demonstrates the impact that prompts to clinical practice can make on patient care. It is important to recognise the need for flexible risk assessment with regular review, especially at times of clinical change. We hope that this continued trend for early risk assessment leads to improved clinical care and timely discussion of risk for all new CAMHS inpatients at GOSH.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment for the Power Grid Dispatching Process Considering the Impact of Cyber Systems

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biyun Chen ◽  
Haoying Chen ◽  
Yiyi Zhang ◽  
Junhui Zhao ◽  
Emad Manla
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Risk Process ◽  
Test System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Cyber Physical System ◽  
Failure Model ◽  
The Impact

Power grid dispatching is a high-risk process, and its execution depends on an available cyber system. However, the effects of cyber systems have not caught enough attention in current research on risk assessments in dispatching processes, which may cause optimistic risk results. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a risk assessment model that considers the impact of a cyber system on power grid dispatching processes. Firstly, a cyber-physical switchgear state model that integrates the reliability states of both cyber system functions and switchgears is proposed, based on the transition of switchgear states in the dispatching process. Then, the potential effects of each operating step on power grid states are analyzed considering the failure model of cyber-physical system (CPS) components. The risk probabilities and consequences of the power grid states are calculated to quantify the risk index. Finally, the workings and effectiveness of this model are illustrated using the IEEE Reliability Test System-1979.

scholarly journals Characterization of the scope and magnitude of biotin interference in susceptible Roche Elecsys competitive and sandwich immunoassays

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Trambas ◽  
Zhong Lu ◽  
Tina Yen ◽  
Ken Sikaris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Troponin T ◽  
High Variability ◽  
High Dose ◽  
High Dose Therapy ◽  
Serum Samples ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Blood Tests ◽  
Significant Interference

Background Biotin interference is a significant problem to which at-risk laboratories must now be attuned. We sought to systematically characterize the nature of this interference in Roche immunoassays. Methods Known concentrations of biotin were titrated into serum samples and the effects on competitive and sandwich immunoassays were analysed. The maximum and minimum concentrations examined reflect those likely to be achieved in individuals on 5 to 10 mg supplements at the lower end, and 100 to 300 mg biotin at the high end. Results A high variability in biotin tolerance was observed. Some assays, such as troponin T, TSH and antithyroid antibodies, were extremely sensitive to the lower concentrations of biotin (15.6 and 31.3 ng/mL), whereas the majority of assays were relatively resistant. At concentrations ≥500 ng/mL, all assays showed significant interference from biotin but, again, the magnitude of the interference was variable. The more sensitive assays showed profound analytical bias at biotin concentrations that occur with high-dose therapy. Conclusion Our data demonstrate high variability in biotin tolerance across Roche immunoassays. The shape of the dose–response curves provides more detailed information than the single manufacturer-quoted figure for biotin tolerance. Accordingly, these data may be used by laboratories for more accurate risk assessment in predicting the effects of biotin. Our data may also be extrapolated to guide timing of blood tests in patients on high-dose biotin therapy: it demonstrates the number of half-lives required to withhold biotin in order to decrease its concentration to below a given assay tolerance.

scholarly journals A 3D Copula Method for the Impact and Risk Assessment of Drought Disaster and an Example Application

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Hou ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Guolin Feng ◽  
Dongdong Zuo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
The Impact

Droughts have more impact on crops than any other natural disaster. Therefore, drought risk assessments, especially quantitative drought risk assessments, are significant in order to understand and reduce the negative impacts associated with droughts, and a quantitative risk assessment includes estimating the probability and consequences of hazards. In order to achieve this goal, we built a model based on the three-dimensional (3D) Copula function for the assessment of the proportion of affected farmland areas (PAFA) based on the idea of internally combining the drought duration, drought intensity, and drought impact. This model achieves the “internal combination” of drought characteristics and drought impacts rather than an “external combination.” The results of this model are not only able to provide the impacts at different levels that a drought event (drought duration and drought intensity) may cause, but are also able to show the occurrence probability of impact at each particular level. We took Huize County and Mengzi County in Yunnan Province as application examples based on the meteorological drought index (SPI), and the results showed that the PAFAs obtained by the method proposed in this paper were basically consistent with the actual PAFAs in the two counties. Moreover, due to the meteorological drought always occurring before an agricultural drought, we can get SPI predictions for the next month or months and can further obtain more abundant information on a drought warning and its impact. Therefore, the method proposed in this paper has values both on theory and practice.

Comparison of SCORE and Reynolds cardiovascular risk assessments in a cohort without cardiovascular disease

2013 ◽  
Vol 154 (43) ◽  
pp. 1709-1712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba Móczár
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Medium Risk

Introduction: Cardiovascular risk assessment may help in the identification of symptom-free subjects with high cardiovascular risk. Aim: The author studied the correlation between SCORE and Reynolds risk assessment systems based on data from the cardiovascular risk screening program carried out in subjects without cardiovascular disease. Method: Data obtained from 4462 subjects (1977 men and 2485 women; mean age, 47,4 years) were analysed. The comparison was based on risk categories of the SCORE system. Results: There was a strong correlation between the two scoring systems in the low risk population (under <2% SCORE risk the Spearman rho = 1, p < 0.001). A weak correlation was found in the medium risk group (between 3–4% the Spearman rho = 0.59–0.49, p < 0.001 and between 10–14% the Spearman rho = 0.42, ns.) and a stronger correlation in the high risk group (>15% the Spearmen rho = 0.8, p = 0.017). When correlations were analysed in gender and age categories, the weakest correlation was detected in medium risk women over 40 years of age. In cases when the differences between the two scoring systems were significant, the hsCRP levels were significantly higher (4.1 vs. 5.67 mg/L, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Introduction of hsCRP into cardiovascular risk assessments can refine the risk status of symptom-free subjects, especially among intermediate risk middle-age women (two-step risk assessment). Orv. Hetil., 154 (43), 1709–1712.

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