scholarly journals The Influence of User Protection Behaviors on the Control of Internet Worm Propagation

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yihong Li ◽  
Jinxiao Pan ◽  
Lipeng Song ◽  
Zhen Jin
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Sis Model ◽  
Worm Propagation ◽  
Internet Worm ◽  
User Behaviors ◽  
New Findings ◽  
And Control ◽  
User Protection

Computer users’ reactions to the outbreak of Internet worm directly determine the defense capability of the computer and play an important role in the spread of worm. In this paper, in order to characterize the impacts of adaptive user protection behaviors, an improved SIS model is proposed to describe the Internet worm propagation. The results of theoretical analysis indicate that the protective campaigns of users can indeed reduce the worm’s reproduction number to values less than one. But it may not be sufficient to eradicate the worm. In certain condition, a backward bifurcation leading to bistability can occur. These are new findings in the worm propagation model that bring new challenges to control the spread of the worm and further demonstrate the importance of user behaviors in controlling the worm propagation. Corresponding to the analysis results, defense and control strategies are provided.

scholarly journals Analysis of a Delayed Internet Worm Propagation Model with Impulsive Quarantine Strategy

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Yao ◽  
Xiaodong Feng ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
Wenlong Xiang ◽  
Fuxiang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Worm Propagation ◽  
Internet Worm ◽  
Internet Worms ◽  
The Stability ◽  
And Control ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
Significant Attention

Internet worms exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities have drawn significant attention owing to their enormous threats to Internet in the real world. To begin with, a worm propagation model with time delay in vaccination is formulated. Through theoretical analysis, it is proved that the worm propagation system is stable when the time delay is less than the thresholdτ0and Hopf bifurcation appears when time delay is equal to or greater thanτ0. Then, a worm propagation model with constant quarantine strategy is proposed. Through quantitative analysis, it is found that constant quarantine strategy has some inhibition effect but does not eliminate bifurcation. Considering all the above, we put forward impulsive quarantine strategy to eliminate worms. Theoretical results imply that the novel proposed strategy can eliminate bifurcation and control the stability of worm propagation. Finally, simulation results match numerical experiments well, which fully supports our analysis.

scholarly journals Mitigating the transmission of infection and death due to SARS-CoV-2 through non-pharmaceutical interventions and repurposing drugs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chittaranjan Mondal ◽  
Debadatta Adak ◽  
Abhijit Majumder ◽  
Nandadulal Bairagi
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Combined Use ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The Covid-19 pandemic has put the world under immeasurable stress. There is no specific drug or vaccine that can cure the infection or protect people from the infection of coronavirus. It is therefore prudent to use the existing resources and control strategies in an optimal way to contain the virus spread and provide the best possible treatments to the infected individuals. Use of the repurposing drugs along with the non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies may be the right way for fighting against the ongoing pandemic. It is the objective of this work to demonstrate through mathematical modelling and analysis how and to what extent such control strategies can improve the overall Covid-19 epidemic burden. The criteria for disease elimination & persistence were established through the basic reproduction number. A case study with the Indian Covid-19 epidemic data is presented to visualize and illustrate the effects of lockdown, maintaining personal hygiene & safe distancing, and repurposing drugs. It is shown that India can significantly improve the overall Covid-19 epidemic burden through the combined use of NPIs and repurposing drugs though containment of spreading is difficult without serious community participation.

scholarly journals Dynamics of swine influenza model with optimal control

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Takasar Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Ozair ◽  
Kazeem Oare Okosun ◽  
Muhammad Ishfaq ◽  
Aziz Ullah Awan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Swine Influenza ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
And Control ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractTransmission dynamics of swine influenza pandemic is analysed through a deterministic model. Qualitative analysis of the model includes global asymptotic stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria under a certain condition based on the reproduction number. Sensitivity analysis to ponder the effect of model parameters on the reproduction number is performed and control strategies are designed. It is also verified that the obtained numerical results are in good agreement with the analytical ones.

scholarly journals Modeling and Analysis of Bifurcation in a Delayed Worm Propagation Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Yao ◽  
Nan Zhang ◽  
Wenlong Xiang ◽  
Ge Yu ◽  
Fuxiang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Positive Equilibrium ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Worm Propagation ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Internet Worm ◽  
The Stability

A delayed worm propagation model with birth and death rates is formulated. The stability of the positive equilibrium is studied. Through theoretical analysis, a critical valueτ0of Hopf bifurcation is derived. The worm propagation system is locally asymptotically stable when time delay is less thanτ0. However, Hopf bifurcation appears when time delayτpasses the thresholdτ0, which means that the worm propagation system is unstable and out of control. Consequently, time delay should be adjusted to be less thanτ0to ensure the stability of the system stable and better prediction of the scale and speed of Internet worm spreading. Finally, numerical and simulation experiments are presented to simulate the system, which fully support our analysis.

scholarly journals Dynamical analysis and control strategies on malware propagation model

2013 ◽  
Vol 37 (16-17) ◽  
pp. 8225-8236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liping Feng ◽  
Xiaofeng Liao ◽  
Qi Han ◽  
Huaqing Li
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Malware Propagation ◽  
And Control

scholarly journals Shortages of hospital beds exacerbate severity of COVID-19 outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weike Zhou ◽  
Aili Wang ◽  
Xia Wang ◽  
Robert A Cheke ◽  
Sanyi Tang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The global outbreak of COVID-19 has caused worrying concern amongst the public and health authorities. The first and foremost problem that many countries face is a shortage of medical resources. The experience of Wuhan, China, in fighting against COVID-19 provides a model for other countries to learn from. Methods: We formulated a piecewise smooth model to describe the limitation of hospital beds, based on the transmission progression of COVID-19, and the strengthening prevention and control strategies implemented in Wuhan, China. We used data of the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases, cured cases and deaths in Wuhan city from 10 January to 20 March, 2020 to estimate unknown parameters and the effective reproduction number. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of a shortage of hospital beds on the COVID-19 outbreak. Results: Even with strong prevention and control measures in Wuhan, slowing down of the supply rate, reducing the maximum capacity and delaying the intervention time of supplementing hospital beds aggravated the outbreak severity by magnifying the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, prolonging the period of the outbreak in Wuhan, enlarging the value of the effective reproduction number during the outbreak and postponing the time when the threshold value is reduced to 1. Conclusions: The quick establishment of the Huoshenshan and Leishenshan Hospitals in a short time and the deployment of mobile cabin hospitals played important roles in containing the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, providing a model for other countries to provide more hospital beds for COVID-19 patients faster and earlier.

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