scholarly journals Shortages of hospital beds exacerbate severity of COVID-19 outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weike Zhou ◽  
Aili Wang ◽  
Xia Wang ◽  
Robert A Cheke ◽  
Sanyi Tang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The global outbreak of COVID-19 has caused worrying concern amongst the public and health authorities. The first and foremost problem that many countries face is a shortage of medical resources. The experience of Wuhan, China, in fighting against COVID-19 provides a model for other countries to learn from. Methods: We formulated a piecewise smooth model to describe the limitation of hospital beds, based on the transmission progression of COVID-19, and the strengthening prevention and control strategies implemented in Wuhan, China. We used data of the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases, cured cases and deaths in Wuhan city from 10 January to 20 March, 2020 to estimate unknown parameters and the effective reproduction number. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of a shortage of hospital beds on the COVID-19 outbreak. Results: Even with strong prevention and control measures in Wuhan, slowing down of the supply rate, reducing the maximum capacity and delaying the intervention time of supplementing hospital beds aggravated the outbreak severity by magnifying the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, prolonging the period of the outbreak in Wuhan, enlarging the value of the effective reproduction number during the outbreak and postponing the time when the threshold value is reduced to 1. Conclusions: The quick establishment of the Huoshenshan and Leishenshan Hospitals in a short time and the deployment of mobile cabin hospitals played important roles in containing the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, providing a model for other countries to provide more hospital beds for COVID-19 patients faster and earlier.

scholarly journals Impact of Hospital Bed Shortages on the Containment of COVID-19 in Wuhan

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 8560
Author(s):  
Weike Zhou ◽  
Aili Wang ◽  
Xia Wang ◽  
Robert A. Cheke ◽  
Yanni Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Threshold Value ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Using Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The global outbreak of COVID-19 has caused worrying concern amongst the public and health authorities. The first and foremost problem that many countries face during the outbreak is a shortage of medical resources. In order to investigate the impact of a shortage of hospital beds on the COVID-19 outbreak, we formulated a piecewise smooth model for describing the limitation of hospital beds. We parameterized the model while using data on the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths in Wuhan city from 10 January to 12 April 2020. The results showed that, even with strong prevention and control measures in Wuhan, slowing down the supply rate, reducing the maximum capacity, and delaying the supply time of hospital beds all aggravated the outbreak severity by magnifying the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, lengthening the end time of the pandemic, enlarging the value of the effective reproduction number during the outbreak, and postponing the time when the threshold value was reduced to 1. Our results demonstrated that establishment of the Huoshenshan, Leishenshan, and Fangcang shelter hospitals avoided 22,786 people from being infected and saved 6524 lives. Furthermore, the intervention of supplying hospital beds avoided infections in 362,360 people and saved the lives of 274,591 persons. This confirmed that the quick establishment of the Huoshenshan, Leishenshan Hospitals, and Fangcang shelter hospitals, and the designation of other hospitals for COVID-19 patients played important roles in containing the outbreak in Wuhan.

scholarly journals A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Wang ◽  
Jingtao Qi
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

AbstractCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and soon after Chinese health authorities took unprecedented prevention and control measures to curb the spreading of the novel coronavirus-related pneumonia. We develop a mathematical model based on daily updates of reported cases to study the evolution of the epidemic. With the model, on 95% confidence level, we estimate the basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.82 ± 0.11, time between March 19 and March 21 when the effective reproduction number becoming less than one, the epidemic ending after April 2 and the total number of confirmed cases approaching 14408 ± 429 on the Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Cheng ◽  
Zeyi Liu ◽  
Guangquan Cheng ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractBeginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures. The number of newly confirmed cases in 25 of China’s most-affected cities for the COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. The results showed that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend overall, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities, indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities was effective, and the risk of infection decreased because their R had dropped below 1 by February 10, 2020. In contrast, the cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi still had difficulty effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was greater than 1.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Pedestrian Flow Patterns in Urban POIs—An Example from Beijing

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 479
Author(s):  
Yihang Li ◽  
Liyan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Pedestrian Flow ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Functional Categories ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major challenge for society as a whole, and analyzing the impact of the spread of the epidemic and government control measures on the travel patterns of urban residents can provide powerful help for city managers to designate top-level epidemic prevention policies and specific epidemic prevention measures. This study investigates whether it is more appropriate to use groups of POIs with similar pedestrian flow patterns as the unit of study rather than functional categories of POIs. In this study, we analyzed the hour-by-hour pedestrian flow data of key locations in Beijing before, during, and after the strict epidemic prevention and control period, and we found that the pedestrian flow patterns differed greatly in different periods by using a composite clustering index; we interpreted the clustering results from two perspectives: groups of pedestrian flow patterns and functional categories. The results show that depending on the specific stage of epidemic prevention and control, the number of unique pedestrian flow patterns decreased from four before the epidemic to two during the strict control stage and then increased to six during the initial resumption of work. The restrictions on movement are correlated with most of the visitations, and the release of restrictions led to an increase in the variety of unique pedestrian flow patterns compared to that in the pre-restriction period, even though the overall number of visitations decreased, indicating that social restrictions led to differences in the flow patterns of POIs and increased social distance.

scholarly journals Impact of the Inflow Population From Outbreak Areas on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Yunnan Province and the Recommended Control Measures: A Preliminary Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhong Sun ◽  
Guozhong He ◽  
Ninghao Huang ◽  
Hongyu Chen ◽  
Shuwei Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Proper Management ◽  
Outbreak Areas ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Gender ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Background: COVID-19 developed into a global pandemic in 2020 and poses challenges regarding the prevention and control capabilities of countries. A large number of inbound travelers from other regions could lead to a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the local regions. Globally, as a result of the imbalance in the control of the epidemic, all countries are facing the risk of a renewed COVID-19 outbreak brought about by travelers from epidemic areas. Therefore, studies on a proper management of the inbound travelers are urgent.Methods: We collected a total of 4,733,414 inbound travelers and 174 COVID-19 diagnosed patients in Yunnan province from 21 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. Data on place of origin, travel history, age, and gender, as well as whether they had suspected clinical manifestations for inbound travelers in Yunnan were collected. The impact of inbound travelers on the local epidemic was analyzed with a collinear statistical analysis and the effect of the control measures on the epidemic was evaluated with a sophisticated modeling approach.Results: Of the 174 COVID-19 patients, 60.9% were not from Yunnan, and 76.4% had a history of travel in Hubei. The amount of new daily cases in Yunnan was significant correlated with the number of inbound travelers from Hubei and suspected cases among them. Using Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model analysis, we found that the prevention and control measures dropped the local R0 down to 1.07 in Yunnan province.Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis showed that the proper management of inbound travelers from outbreak areas has a significantly positive effect on the prevention and control of the virus. In the process of resettlement, some effective measures taken by Yunnan province may provide an important reference for preventing the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in other regions.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effects of Helminth Infection on the Transmission Dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis under Optimal Control Strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Aristide G. Lambura ◽  
Gasper G. Mwanga ◽  
Livingstone Luboobi ◽  
Dmitry Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Drug Administration ◽  
Mass Drug Administration ◽  
Helminth Infection ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Active Tuberculosis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Impact

A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission and control of cointeraction of helminths and tuberculosis is presented, to examine the impact of helminth on tuberculosis and the effect of control strategies. The equilibrium point is established, and the effective reproduction number is computed. The disease-free equilibrium point is confirmed to be asymptotically stable whenever the effective reproduction number is less than the unit. The analysis of the effective reproduction number indicates that an increase in the helminth cases increases the tuberculosis cases, suggesting that the control of helminth infection has a positive impact on controlling the dynamics of tuberculosis. The possibility of bifurcation is investigated using the Center Manifold Theorem. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the effect of every parameter on the spread of the two diseases. The model is extended to incorporate control measures, and Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is applied to derive the necessary conditions for optimal control. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by the iterative scheme by considering vaccination of infants for Mtb, treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis, mass drug administration with regular antihelminthic drugs, and sanitation control strategies. The results show that a combination of educational campaign, treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis, mass drug administration, and sanitation is the most effective strategy to control helminth-Mtb coinfection. Thus, to effectively control the helminth-Mtb coinfection, we suggest to public health stakeholders to apply intervention strategies that are aimed at controlling helminth infection and the combination of vaccination of infants and treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Bovine Mastitis and its Diagnosis, Prevention, and Control

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.D. Audarya ◽  
D. Chhabra ◽  
R. Sharda ◽  
R. Gangil ◽  
R. Sikrodia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Bovine Mastitis ◽  
The State ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Etiological Agents ◽  
And Control

Mastitis is an inflammation of mammary glands that is prevalent in dairy bovines. It causes a significant proportion of economic losses to the dairy farmers in India. Cattle and buffalo farming contribute significantly to the economy of the state. Various infectious agents such as bacteria, fungi, and algae may cause mastitis. Hence, it is essential to understand the etiological agents and predisposing factors that lead to mastitis in susceptible bovine populations in Madhya Pradesh state so that appropriate prevention and control strategies can be implemented. In this chapter, epidemiology, diagnosis, prevention, and control measures of mastitis in general and in India, the state of Madhya Pradesh, in particular, will be presented.

scholarly journals A Cross-sectional Study on the Impact of the Prevention and Control Response of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Children's Orthopedic Trauma in Shanghai

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuang Qian ◽  
Yiming Zheng ◽  
Junrong Meng ◽  
Hao Li ◽  
Dahui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Radial Head ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Study Cohort ◽  
Orthopedic Trauma ◽  
Control Response ◽  
Open Injuries ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The Chinese government has taken strong prevention and control measures against the COVID-19 pandemic, and has achieved phased victory in the fight against it. The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to study the influence of governmental prevention and control response on orthopedic trauma in children.Methods: We collected and reviewed data on orthopedic trauma from the first half of 2018, 2019, and 2020. The data were divided according to the time of prevention and control response level in 2020. By comparing the relevant data from orthopedic emergency and operating rooms from the past three years, the influence of governmental pandemic prevention measures on orthopedic trauma in children was analyzed. Results: A total of 36301 children were included in the study cohort. Before the prevention and control response, the data of the orthopedic emergency department in 2020 was the same as the previous two years. Under the first-level response, the number of fractures, open injuries, radial head subluxation, and surgery were significantly reduced, and the severity of patients with surgery was also significantly reduced. Under the second-level response, the number of operations began to increase, and the severity of the disease also began to rise. Under the third-level response control, the number of fractures, open injuries, and operations have returned to the levels of the previous two years. The severity of the operation has also returned to its previous level. The number of subluxations of the radial head is still different from before.Conclusion: The pandemic of COVID-19 has affected the social activities of Shanghai residents and reduced the incidence of orthopedic trauma in children. With the control of the pandemic, the living conditions of Shanghai residents have basically recovered.Level of Evidence: Retrospective study Level II

scholarly journals Epidemic prevention and control measures in China significantly curbed the epidemic of COVID-19 and influenza

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang-Sha Kong ◽  
Feng Liu ◽  
Hai-Bo Wang ◽  
Rui-Feng Yang ◽  
Dong-Bo Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Tract ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Spring Festival ◽  
Railway Passenger ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractAt the end of 2019, an outbreak of unknown pathogen pneumonia occurred in China, then it was named corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). With the rapid spread of COVID-19, a series of strict prevention and control measures were implemented to cut the spread of the epidemic. Influenza as a respiratory tract infection disease as COVID-19 might also be controlled. To assess the effects, we used the total passenger numbers sent in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and the daily number of railway passenger (DNRP) flow in 2020 during Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and further to analyze newly and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 and influenza. We found that with implementing the series measures on COVID-19, not only COVID-19, but also influenza mitigated in China. The prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used in controlling respiratory tract diseases, and reducing the national health economic burden. When other countries issue measures on COVID-19 and influenza, they should consider adopting more aggressive epidemic prevention and control strategies.

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