scholarly journals Climate Variability and Farmers’ Perception in Southern Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Befikadu Esayas ◽  
Belay Simane ◽  
Ermias Teferi ◽  
Victor Ongoma ◽  
Nigussie Tefera

The study aims to analyze climate variability and farmers’ perception in Southern Ethiopia. Gridded annual temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for the period between 1983 and 2014. Using a multistage sampling technique, 403 farm households were surveyed to substantiate farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change. The study applied a nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests to detect the magnitude and statistical significance of climate variability and binary logit regression model to find factors influencing farm households’ perceptions about climate variability over three agroecological zones (AEZs). The trend analysis reveals that positive trends were observed in the annual maximum temperature, 0.02°C/year (p<0.01) in the lowland and 0.04°C/year (p<0.01) in the highland AEZs. The positive trend in annual minimum temperature was consistent in all AEZs and significant (p<0.01). An upward trend in the annual total rainfall (10 mm/year) (p<0.05) was recorded in the midland AEZ. Over 60% of farmers have perceived increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in all AEZs. However, farmers’ perception about rainfall in the midland AEZ contradicts with meteorological analysis. Results from the binary logit model inform that farmers’ climate change perceptions are significantly influenced by their access to climate and market information, agroecology, education, agricultural input, and village market distance. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance farm households’ capacity by providing timely weather and climate information along with institutional actions such as agricultural extension services.

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Befikadu Esayas ◽  
Belay Simane ◽  
Ermias Teferi ◽  
Victor Ongoma ◽  
Nigussie Tefera

The study aims to assess trends in extremes of surface temperature and precipitation through the application of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) on datasets representing three agroecological zones in Southern Ethiopia. The indices are applied to daily temperature and precipitation data. Nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests are used to detect the magnitude and statistical significance of changes in extreme climate, respectively. All agroecological zones (AEZs) have experienced both positive and negative trends of change in temperature extremes. Over three decades, warmest days, warmest nights, and coldest nights have shown significantly increasing trends except in the midland AEZ where warmest days decreased by 0.017°C/year (p<0.05). Temperature extreme’s magnitude of change is higher in the highland AEZ and lower in the midland AEZ. The trend in the daily temperature range shows statistically significant decrease across AEZs (p<0.05). A decreasing trend in the cold spell duration indicator was observed in all AEZs, and the magnitude of change is 0.667 days/year in lowland (p<0.001), 2.259 days/year in midland, and 1 day/year in highland (p<0.05). On the contrary, the number of very wet days revealed a positive trend both in the midland and highland AEZs (p<0.05). Overall, it is observed that warm extremes are increasing while cold extremes are decreasing, suggesting considerable changes in the AEZs.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Bojago ◽  
Dalga YaYa

Abstract This paper investigated the recent trends of precipitation and temperature on Damota Gale districts of Wolaita Zone. This study used the observed historical meteorological data from 1987 to 2019 to analyze the trends. The magnitude of the variability or fluctuations of the factors varies according to locations. Hence, examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of changing climate, particularly in countries where rain-fed agriculture is predominant, is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. Both rainfall and temperature data for a period of 1987 to 2019 were analyzed in this study. Statistical trend analysis techniques namely Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to examine and analyze the problems. The long-term trend of rainfall and temperature was evaluated by linear regression and Mann–Kendall test. The temperature was shown a positive trend for both annual and seasonal periods and had a statistical significance of 95%. This study concluded that there was a declining rainfall in the three seasons; spring, summer and winter but in autumn it shows increasing trends and rapid warming, especially in the last 32 years. The detailed analysis of the data for 32 years indicate that the annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature have shown an increasing trend, whereas the Damota Gale seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures have shown an increasing trend. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for climate researchers, policy and decision-makers.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Bojago ◽  
Dalga Yaya

Abstract Background: This paper investigated the recent trends of precipitation and temperature on Damota Gale districts of Wolaita Zone. This study used the observed historical meteorological data from 1987 to 2019 to analyze the trends. The magnitude of the variability or fluctuations of the factors varies according to locations. Hence, examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of changing climate, particularly in countries where rain fed agriculture is predominant, is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. Results: Both rainfall and temperature data for period of 1987 to 2019 were analyzed in this study. Statistical trend analysis techniques namely Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to examine and analyze the problems. The long-term trend of rainfall and temperature was evaluated by linear regression and Mann–Kendall test. The temperature was shown a positive trend for the both annual and seasonal periods and had a statistical significance at 95%.Conclusion: This study concluded that there were a declining rainfall in the three seasons; spring, summer and winter but in autumn it shows increasing trends and rapid warming, especially in the last 32 years. The detailed analysis of the data for 32 years indicate that the annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature have shown an increasing trend, whereas the Damota Gale seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures have shown an increasing trend. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for climate researchers, policy and decision makers.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Rabino ◽  
Marcella Biddoccu ◽  
Giorgia Bagagiolo ◽  
Guido Nigrelli ◽  
Luca Mercalli ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;Historical weather data represent an extremely precious resource for agro-meteorology for studying evolutionary dynamics and for predictive purposes, to address agronomical and management choices, that have economic, social and environmental effect. The study of climatic variability and its consequences starts from the observation of variations over time and the identification of the causes, on the basis of historical series of meteorological observations. The availability of long-lasting, complete and accurate datasets is a fundamental requirement to predict and react to climate variability. Inter-annual climate changes deeply affect grapevine productive cycle determining direct impact on the onset and duration of phenological stages and, ultimately, on the grape harvest and yield. Indeed, climate variables, such as air temperature and precipitation, affect evapotranspiration rates, plant water requirements, and also the vine physiology. In this respect, the observed increase in the number of warm days poses a threat to grape quality as it creates a situation of imbalance at maturity, with respect to sugar content, acidity and phenolic and aromatic ripeness.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A study was conducted to investigate the relationships between climate variables and harvest onset dates to assess the responses of grapevine under a global warming scenario. The study was carried out in the &amp;#8220;Monferrato&amp;#8221; area, a rainfed hillslope vine-growing area of NW Italy. In particular, the onset dates of harvest of different local wine grape varieties grown in the Vezzolano Experimental Farm (CNR-IMAMOTER) and in surrounding vineyards (affiliated to the Terre dei Santi Cellars) were recorded from 1962 to 2019 and then related to historical series of climate data by means of regression analysis. The linear regression was performed based on the averages of maximum and minimum daily temperatures and sum of precipitation (1962&amp;#8211;2019) calculated for growing and ripening season, together with a bioclimatic heat index for vineyards, the Huglin index. The climate data were obtained from two data series collected in the Experimental farm by a mechanical weather station (1962-2002) and a second series recorded (2002-2019) by an electro-mechanical station included in Piedmont Regional Agro-meteorological Network. Finally, a third long-term continuous series covering the period from 1962 to 2019, provided by Italian Meteorological Society was considered in the analysis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The results of the study highlighted that inter-annual climate variability, with a general positive trend of temperature, significantly affects the ripening of grapes with a progressive anticipation of the harvest onset dates. In particular, all the considered variables excepted precipitation, resulted negatively correlated with the harvest onset date reaching a high level of significance (up to P&lt; 0.001). Best results have been obtained for maximum temperature and Huglin index, especially by using the most complete dataset. The change ratios obtained using datasets including last 15 years were greater (in absolute terms) than results limited to the period 1962-2002, and also correlations have greater level of significance. The results indicated clearly the relationships between the temperature trend and the gradual anticipation of harvest and the importance of having long and continuous historical weather data series available.&lt;/p&gt;


2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin Rojas ◽  
Blanca Arce ◽  
Andrés Peña ◽  
Francisco Boshell ◽  
Miguel Ayarza

<p>El cambio en el patrón climático global no sólo afecta la temperatura, sino el ciclo hidrológico con mayores variaciones en los ambientales locales. Con el fin de cuantificar las tendencias de temperatura máxima, mínima y precipitación media, se realizó un análisis no-paramétrico de las series de tiempo de 31 estaciones meteorológicas ubicadas en zonas alto andinas de Cundinamarca y Boyacá, con registros de 1985 a 2008. Se calcularon las tendencias de cambio de las variables climáticas para cada una de las estaciones mediante el método de estimación de pendiente de Sen y se utilizó la prueba de Mann- Kendall para determinar el nivel de confianza de dichas tendencias. La temperatura máxima mostró tendencias positivas con niveles de confianza significativa (&gt;90%) en la mayoría de estaciones climáticas. Para la temperatura mínima, la tendencia positiva fue detectada en menor número de estaciones pero con mayores niveles de confianza estadística (12 estaciones superaron el 95%). La precipitación mostró tendencias significativas (&gt;90%) sólo en siete de las 31 estaciones analizadas (seis de ellas fueron positivas y una negativa). Se utilizó el método de interpolación de distancia inversa ponderada (IDW) para generar los mapas de la distribución espacial de las tendencias. Mediante validación cruzada se encontró que el IDW tiene un mejor ajuste para la precipitación que para la temperatura. Se concluye que el cambio climático tiene manifestaciones muy locales en términos del comportamiento de las temperaturas y la precipitación para la zona de estudio, lo que podría generar impactos específicos sobre los sistemas productivos de la región.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Quantization and interpolation of local trends in temperature and precipitation in the high Andean areas of Cundinamarca and Boyaca (Colombia)</strong></p><p>Change in global weather patterns affects not only temperature, but also the hydrological cycle with greater variations in local environments. In order to quantify trends in maximum temperature and minimum and average precipitation, we performed a nonparametric analysis of time series of 31 meteorological stations located in the high Andes of Cundinamarca and Boyaca, with records from 1985 to 2008. We calculated the changing trends of climatic variables for each of the stations with the Sen slope estimator and we used the Mann-Kendall test to determine the confidence level of such trends. The maximum temperature showed positive trends with significant confidence levels (&gt; 90%) in most seasons. For the lowest temperature, the positive trend was detected in fewer stations but with higher levels of statistical confidence (12 stations exceeded 95%). Rainfall showed significant trends (&gt; 90%) in only seven of the 31 stations analyzed (six of them were positive and one negative). We used the method of inverse distance weighted interpolation (IDW) to generate maps of the spatial distribution of the trends. Cross validation found that IDW has a better fit for precipitation than for temperature. We conclude that climate change manifests very local expressions in terms of the behavior of temperatures and precipitation for the study area, which could lead to specific impacts on production systems in the region.</p>


Nativa ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 544-551
Author(s):  
Roberta Araújo Silva ◽  
Eduardo Silva Ries ◽  
Girlene Figueiredo Maciel

Neste trabalho foram investigadas as tendências anuais de temperatura absoluta do ar máxima e mínima de seis estações meteorológicas convencionais do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia – INMET, localizadas no estado do Tocantins, para o período de 1961 a 2017. A análise de tendência foi realizada aplicando o teste não paramétrico de Mann-Kendall. Os resultados indicam tendência significativa de aumento da temperatura máxima anual em todas as estações. A temperatura mínima anual também apresentou tendência positiva, porém com significância estatística apenas para as estações de Porto Nacional, Palmas e Taguatinga. Embora haja diferenças nas tendências entre as estações, verificou-se um aumento sistemático da temperatura máxima e mínima, especialmente a partir da década de 90. A maior taxa de crescimento da temperatura foi registrada na estação de Palmas, de 4,14 °C para a mínima e de 3,68 °C para a máxima, em um período de 23 anos. O aumento da temperatura mínima encontrados nesse trabalho evidencia que essas cidades estão passando por um processo de maior retenção de energia na forma de calor sensível durante a noite, possivelmente devido a substituição da cobertura da superfície terrestre, devido a maior dificuldade da troca de energia entre a superfície e a atmosfera. Palavras-chave: Mann-Kendall; detecção de tendências; mudanças climáticas.   ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE STATE OF TOCANTINS ABSTRACT: In this work, the annual trends in absolute and maximum air temperature of six conventional meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology - INMET, located in the state of Tocantins, for the period from 1961 to 2017 were investigated. The trend analysis was performed using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The results indicate a significant trend of increasing the maximum annual temperature in all seasons. The annual minimum temperature also showed a positive trend, but with statistical significance only for the Porto Nacional, Palmas and Taguatinga stations. Although there are differences in trends between seasons, there was a systematic increase in maximum and minimum temperature, especially from the 90s. The highest rate of temperature growth was registered at Palmas station, from 4.14° C to the minimum and 3.68° C for the maximum, over a period of 23 years. The increase in the minimum temperature found in this work shows that these cities are going through a process of greater energy retention in the form of sensitive heat during the night, possibly due to the replacement of the Earth's surface coverage, due to the greater difficulty in exchanging energy between the surface and the atmosphere. Keywords: Mann-Kendall; trend detection; climate changes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Malebo Mancha Massa ◽  
Abdulaziz Mosa

AbstractDeforestation and environmental degradation were identified among the leading factors worsening risk exposure in developing countries. Conservational tree growing was found a permissible option and an awake up policy direction to curve down the problem in Ethiopia. However, the uptake of this practice is far from complete and the art has not been made to a level that could make households self-reliant at least in tree resources, particularly in the highlands. The objective of this study was to identify the decisive factors that influence conservational tree growing behavior of smallholder farm households in Gamo highlands of Southern Ethiopia. The study was based on survey data collected from 11 villages in 2011/2012. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 335 farm households. Structured interview questionnaires and observations were used to collect primary data. Descriptive and inferential statistics and logistic regression model were used to analyze the data. The key findings showed that a host of factors significantly influenced smallholders’ decision to practice conservational tree growing. The study found that tree growing experience, farm size, and availability of suitable land area for tree growing and cash income from sales of trees were the significant factors explaining the variation in conservational tree growing behavior of households. We also observed old-aged trees in traditionally protected areas. Among others, funeral and mystical sites host large number of long-lived indigenous tree species than private farms in Gamo highlands of southern Ethiopia. Based on the findings, the study concluded that intra-farmer experience sharing, and support to efficient indigenous institutions and rural tree markets as potential entry points for mitigating deforestation and developing environmentally sustainable agriculture.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-165
Author(s):  
Andrey N. Shikhov ◽  
Rinat K. Abdullin ◽  
Andrey V. Tarasov

The paper presents a series of maps of extreme climatic characteristics for the Ural region and their changes under climate warming observed in last decades. We calculate threshold, absolute and percentile-based indices with the use of daily temperature and precipitation dataset of 99 weather stations of Roshydromet. Extreme climatic characteristics were averaged by moving 30-year periods from 1951 to 2010 for temperature and from 1966 to 2015 for precipitation. The regression-based interpolation was used for mapping climatic extremes taking into consideration the influence of topography. Elevation and general curvature of the terrain are considered as independent variables. In addition, the changes of extreme characteristics between the 30-year periods were estimated. As a result, a series of maps of temperature and precipitation extremes for the Ural region has been created. The maps present not only spatial distribution of the climatic extremes, but also regional features of their changes under climate warming. In general, the revealed changes in extremes in the Ural region correspond to the trends observed on the most of the territory of Russia. There is a substantial decrease of the number of extremely cold days in winter, and the minimum winter temperature has a strong positive trend (up to 1-5°C/30 years). The maximum temperature in summer has a positive trend in most of the territory, but the increase rate does not exceed 2°C between 1951–1980 and 1981–2010. The precipitation extremes also increased up to 0.5-1.5 mm when comparing 1966–1995 and 1985–2015 periods.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malebo Mancha Massa ◽  
Abdulaziz Abdulsemed Mosa

Abstract Background: Deforestation and environmental degradation were identified among the leading factors worsening risk exposure in developing countries. Conservational tree growing was found a permissible option and an awake up policy direction to curve down the problem in Ethiopia. However, the uptake of this practice is far from complete and the art has not been made to a level that could make households self-reliant at least in tree resources, particularly in the highlands. This study was aimed at identifying the main decisive factors that potentially influence conservational tree growing behavior of smallholder farm households in Gamo highlands of Southern Ethiopia.Methods: The study was based on survey data collected from 11 villages in 2011/2012. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 335 farm households. A structured interview schedule and observation were used to collect primary data. Descriptive and inferential statistics and Logistic regression model were used to analyze the data.Results: The key findings showed that a host of factors significantly influenced smallholders’ decision to practice conservational tree growing. The study found that tree growing experience, age of the household head, farm size, and availability of suitable land area for tree growing and cash income from sales of trees were the significant factors explaining the variation in conservational tree growing behavior of households. The study also observed that indigenous social and cultural organizations and religious and old-aged funeral sites were the homes for old-aged but live indigenous tree species than private farms.Conclusion: Based on the findings, the study concluded that intra-farmer experience sharing, and support to efficient indigenous institutions and rural tree markets as potential entry points for mitigating deforestation, improving forestry, and developing environmentally sustainable agriculture.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0250037
Author(s):  
Romedan Delil ◽  
Beakal Zinab ◽  
Hassen Mosa ◽  
Ritbano Ahmed ◽  
Habtamu Hassen

Background Dietary diversity has continued to receive a global attention among pregnant women as they have been considered susceptible to malnutrition because of their increased nutrient demands. Thus, a variety of foodstuffs in their diet are necessary for ensuring the appropriateness of their nutrient consumptions. This study, therefore assessed the dietary diversity practice and its determinants among pregnant women attending antenatal clinic at Wachemo University Nigist Eleni Mohammed memorial referral hospital, Southern Ethiopia. Methods A hospital-based cross-sectional study was carried out on 303 participants from May 1 to June 15, 2019 using a systematic random sampling technique. Data were entered and analyzed using SPSS (version24.0). Both bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to decide the association of each explanatory variable with the outcome variable. Odds ratio with their 95% confidence intervals was calculated to identify the presence and strength of association, and statistical significance was declared at p < 0.05. Results The overall prevalence of adequate dietary diversity practices was observed to be 42.6%. The determinants of dietary diversity practice included earning of a monthly income ≥2000 Ethiopian birr (AOR = 1.62; 95%CI:1.19–2.85), maternal educational level (AOR = 2.50; 95% CI: 1.05–6.12), educational status of partner (AOR = 2.45; 95% CI:1.20, 9.57), having a partner who was a government employee (AOR = 4; 95% CI:2.18–7.21), and the receiving of nutritional information (AOR = 1.35; 95% CI: 3.39–6.94). Conclusions The study indicated that the overall consumption of adequate dietary diversity practice was found to be low. Therefore, increasing household income, enhancing nutritional related information, advancing the academic level of both wife and her partner is essential to improve women’s dietary diversity practice.


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