scholarly journals TENDÊNCIAS DA TEMPERATURA ANUAL NO ESTADO DO TOCANTINS

Nativa ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 544-551
Author(s):  
Roberta Araújo Silva ◽  
Eduardo Silva Ries ◽  
Girlene Figueiredo Maciel
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
The State ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Temperature Growth ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Energy Retention ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

Neste trabalho foram investigadas as tendências anuais de temperatura absoluta do ar máxima e mínima de seis estações meteorológicas convencionais do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia – INMET, localizadas no estado do Tocantins, para o período de 1961 a 2017. A análise de tendência foi realizada aplicando o teste não paramétrico de Mann-Kendall. Os resultados indicam tendência significativa de aumento da temperatura máxima anual em todas as estações. A temperatura mínima anual também apresentou tendência positiva, porém com significância estatística apenas para as estações de Porto Nacional, Palmas e Taguatinga. Embora haja diferenças nas tendências entre as estações, verificou-se um aumento sistemático da temperatura máxima e mínima, especialmente a partir da década de 90. A maior taxa de crescimento da temperatura foi registrada na estação de Palmas, de 4,14 °C para a mínima e de 3,68 °C para a máxima, em um período de 23 anos. O aumento da temperatura mínima encontrados nesse trabalho evidencia que essas cidades estão passando por um processo de maior retenção de energia na forma de calor sensível durante a noite, possivelmente devido a substituição da cobertura da superfície terrestre, devido a maior dificuldade da troca de energia entre a superfície e a atmosfera. Palavras-chave: Mann-Kendall; detecção de tendências; mudanças climáticas.   ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE STATE OF TOCANTINS ABSTRACT: In this work, the annual trends in absolute and maximum air temperature of six conventional meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology - INMET, located in the state of Tocantins, for the period from 1961 to 2017 were investigated. The trend analysis was performed using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The results indicate a significant trend of increasing the maximum annual temperature in all seasons. The annual minimum temperature also showed a positive trend, but with statistical significance only for the Porto Nacional, Palmas and Taguatinga stations. Although there are differences in trends between seasons, there was a systematic increase in maximum and minimum temperature, especially from the 90s. The highest rate of temperature growth was registered at Palmas station, from 4.14° C to the minimum and 3.68° C for the maximum, over a period of 23 years. The increase in the minimum temperature found in this work shows that these cities are going through a process of greater energy retention in the form of sensitive heat during the night, possibly due to the replacement of the Earth's surface coverage, due to the greater difficulty in exchanging energy between the surface and the atmosphere. Keywords: Mann-Kendall; trend detection; climate changes.

scholarly journals Climate Variability and Farmers’ Perception in Southern Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Befikadu Esayas ◽  
Belay Simane ◽  
Ermias Teferi ◽  
Victor Ongoma ◽  
Nigussie Tefera
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Farm Households ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Southern Ethiopia ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Binary Logit

The study aims to analyze climate variability and farmers’ perception in Southern Ethiopia. Gridded annual temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for the period between 1983 and 2014. Using a multistage sampling technique, 403 farm households were surveyed to substantiate farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change. The study applied a nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests to detect the magnitude and statistical significance of climate variability and binary logit regression model to find factors influencing farm households’ perceptions about climate variability over three agroecological zones (AEZs). The trend analysis reveals that positive trends were observed in the annual maximum temperature, 0.02°C/year (p<0.01) in the lowland and 0.04°C/year (p<0.01) in the highland AEZs. The positive trend in annual minimum temperature was consistent in all AEZs and significant (p<0.01). An upward trend in the annual total rainfall (10 mm/year) (p<0.05) was recorded in the midland AEZ. Over 60% of farmers have perceived increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in all AEZs. However, farmers’ perception about rainfall in the midland AEZ contradicts with meteorological analysis. Results from the binary logit model inform that farmers’ climate change perceptions are significantly influenced by their access to climate and market information, agroecology, education, agricultural input, and village market distance. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance farm households’ capacity by providing timely weather and climate information along with institutional actions such as agricultural extension services.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Extreme Temperature Variability in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa A. Mohamed ◽  
Mohamed El-Sayed El-Mahdy
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature

Abstract. In this paper, spatial and temporal patterns of changes in extreme temperatures are investigated using 10 meteorological stations data for the period 1950–2018 in the Blue Nile basin. Monthly temperature data for the basin were used in the study. Long-term trends in the Blue Nile Basin annual and monthly temperatures were investigated. The statistical significance of the trend is calculated by applying the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The analysis of data was performed using the coefficient of variance, anomaly index. The results showed that the annual maximum and minimum temperature is increasing significantly with a magnitude of 0.037° and 0.025 °C per decade respectively in the period from 1950–2018. The result of the Mann-Kendall analysis test revealed a marked increase in mean maximum and minimum temperatures trend over time significantly during the study period (the minimum temperature rate is more evident than the maximum). The long-term anomalies of mean annual minimum temperature revealed the inter-annual variability while the trend after 1977 was higher than the long-term average that is proof of the warming trend existence since the last two decades of the 20th century.

scholarly journals Agro-Climatic Characterization of Two Selected Stations in the Southern West Bengal, India

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 49-54
Author(s):  
Saon Banerjee ◽  
Asis Mukherj ◽  
Apurba Mukhopadhayal ◽  
B Saikia ◽  
S Bandyaopadhaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature

Maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall data of Bankura (1992-2007) and Canning (1960-2006) were analyzed for assessing climatic trend and agro-climatic characterization of red-lateritic and coastal Zones of West Bengal respectively. These two zones are the most vulnerable regions to climate change in West Bengal, hence selected for the present study. While average values of annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature were used for climatic trend analysis, no definite trend was observed. So, maximum temperature of the hottest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month were used for detecting climatic trend. The maximum temperature shows positive trend for both the stations. An increasing trend of annual rainfall was also observed. In case of agro-climatic characterization the agricultural draught, meteorological draught, seasonal rainfall and rainfall probability using Markov-chain model were analyzed for the said two stations. Kharif crops of Bankura encountered two years (2000 & 2005) agricultural draught within 2000 -2007, whereas kharif crops of Canning encountered agricultural draught in 2006 within the said period. Likewise, the deviation of seasonal rainfall and probability of two consecutive wet weeks with different levels (10, 20,30,40,50 and 60 mm) of weekly total rainfall was worked out. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jsf.v8i1-2.14619 J. Sci. Foundation, 8(1&2): 49-54, June-December 2010

scholarly journals Surface air temperature trends in Kathmandu Valley for 2011-2017

BIBECHANA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-104
Author(s):  
A. Thapa ◽  
A Silwal ◽  
S P Gautam ◽  
C K. Nepal ◽  
S. Bhattarai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Kathmandu Valley ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

In this study, we reviewed the maximum and minimum temperature trends of the Kathmandu valley over the period of 2011-2017. In addition, the average monthly temperature trends were studied annually for the same period, with the data made available from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of Nepal. The annual temperature trended in the same direction, with winter temperatures being lower and summer temperatures being higher. The annual average minimum and maximum air temperature trends were found to be slightly rising at 0.097˚C/year and 0.04˚C/year, respectively. The mean air temperature in Kathmandu valley is increasing at a rate of 0.06 degrees Celsius per year, with 2016 being the warmest year and 2012 being the least warm, with annual mean temperatures of 19.82˚C and 19.32˚C, respectively. The temperature difference is much smaller in the summer (less than ~12˚C) than in the winter.  BIBECHANA 18 (2) (2021) 95-104

scholarly journals Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Damota Gale districts of Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Bojago ◽  
Dalga YaYa
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Temperature Pattern ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Mann Kendall Test

Abstract This paper investigated the recent trends of precipitation and temperature on Damota Gale districts of Wolaita Zone. This study used the observed historical meteorological data from 1987 to 2019 to analyze the trends. The magnitude of the variability or fluctuations of the factors varies according to locations. Hence, examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of changing climate, particularly in countries where rain-fed agriculture is predominant, is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. Both rainfall and temperature data for a period of 1987 to 2019 were analyzed in this study. Statistical trend analysis techniques namely Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to examine and analyze the problems. The long-term trend of rainfall and temperature was evaluated by linear regression and Mann–Kendall test. The temperature was shown a positive trend for both annual and seasonal periods and had a statistical significance of 95%. This study concluded that there was a declining rainfall in the three seasons; spring, summer and winter but in autumn it shows increasing trends and rapid warming, especially in the last 32 years. The detailed analysis of the data for 32 years indicate that the annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature have shown an increasing trend, whereas the Damota Gale seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures have shown an increasing trend. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for climate researchers, policy and decision-makers.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Damota Gale districts of Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Bojago ◽  
Dalga Yaya
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Temperature Pattern ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Mann Kendall Test

Abstract Background: This paper investigated the recent trends of precipitation and temperature on Damota Gale districts of Wolaita Zone. This study used the observed historical meteorological data from 1987 to 2019 to analyze the trends. The magnitude of the variability or fluctuations of the factors varies according to locations. Hence, examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of changing climate, particularly in countries where rain fed agriculture is predominant, is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. Results: Both rainfall and temperature data for period of 1987 to 2019 were analyzed in this study. Statistical trend analysis techniques namely Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to examine and analyze the problems. The long-term trend of rainfall and temperature was evaluated by linear regression and Mann–Kendall test. The temperature was shown a positive trend for the both annual and seasonal periods and had a statistical significance at 95%.Conclusion: This study concluded that there were a declining rainfall in the three seasons; spring, summer and winter but in autumn it shows increasing trends and rapid warming, especially in the last 32 years. The detailed analysis of the data for 32 years indicate that the annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature have shown an increasing trend, whereas the Damota Gale seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures have shown an increasing trend. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for climate researchers, policy and decision makers.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Evolution of Fractional Vegetation Cover and Its Response to Climate Change Based on MODIS Data in the Subtropical Region of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 913
Author(s):  
Hua Liu ◽  
Xuejian Li ◽  
Fangjie Mao ◽  
Meng Zhang ◽  
Di’en Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Fractional Vegetation Cover ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Total Study Area

The subtropical vegetation plays an important role in maintaining the structure and function of global ecosystems, and its contribution to the global carbon balance are receiving increasing attention. The fractional vegetation cover (FVC) as an important indicator for monitoring environment change, is widely used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of regional and even global vegetation. China is an important distribution area of subtropical vegetation. Therefore, we first used the dimidiate pixel model to extract the subtropical FVC of China during 2001–2018 based on MODIS land surface reflectance data, and then used the linear regression analysis and the variation coefficient to explore its spatiotemporal variations characteristics. Finally, the partial correlation analysis and the partial derivative model were used to analyze the influences and contributions of climate factors on FVC, respectively. The results showed that (1) the subtropical FVC had obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity; the FVC high-coverage and medium-coverage zones were concentratedly and their combined area accounted for more than 70% of the total study area. (2) The interannual variation in the average subtropical FVC from 2001 to 2018 showed a significant growth trend. (3) In 76.28% of the study area, the regional FVC showed an increasing trend, and the remaining regional FVC showed a decreasing trend. However, the overall fluctuations in the FVC (increasing or decreasing) in the region were relatively stable. (4) The influences of climate factors to the FVC exhibited obvious spatial differences. More than half of all pixels exhibited the influence of the average annual minimum temperature and the annual precipitation had positive on FVC, while the average annual maximum temperature had negative on FVC. (5) The contributions of climate changes to FVC had obvious heterogeneity, and the average annual minimum temperature was the main contribution factor affecting the dynamic variations of FVC.

Rising minimum temperature trends over India in recent decades: Implications for agricultural production

2014 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Bapuji Rao ◽  
P. Santhibhushan Chowdary ◽  
V.M. Sandeep ◽  
V.U.M. Rao ◽  
B. Venkateswarlu
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Temperature Trends

scholarly journals PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MODEL OF FORMATION OF CADETS' READINESS TO ENSURE INFORMATION SECURITY IN PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 119-129
Author(s):  
Dmitry Dvoretsky ◽  
Natalia Kolesnikova ◽  
Oksana Makarkina ◽  
Kira Lagvilava
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
The State ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Pedagogical Tools ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
The Stability

The mass introduction of information technologies in the activities of state structures has made it possible to transfer the efficiency of their functioning to a qualitatively new level. Unfortunately, as a means of action, they have characteristic vulnerabilities and can be used not only for good, but also for harm. For the state, as a guarantor of the stability of a civilized society, the issue of ensuring the security of information processing is particularly important. Despite the automation of many information processes, the most vulnerable link in the work of information systems remains a person. A person acts as an operator of information systems and a consumer of information. The entire service process depends on the competence of the operator and the quality of his perception. There are areas of government activity where the cost of error is particularly high. These include ensuring the life and health of citizens, protecting public order and the state system, and ensuring territorial integrity. The specifics of the spheres must be taken into account when ensuring the security of information. This study concerns official activities that are provided by paramilitary groups. Currently, there is a discrepancy in the level of competence of new personnel in the first months of service. The author traces the shortcomings of general and special professional qualities in the field of information security. The purpose of the study is to substantiate certain pedagogical means of forming cadets ' readiness to ensure information security. As forms of theoretical knowledge, we will use the traditional hypothesis and model, as well as functionally distinguishable judgments – problem, assumption, idea and principle. Empirical forms of knowledge will be observation (experimental method) and fixation of facts. To evaluate the effectiveness of the developed pedagogical tools, we use statistical methods: observation (documented and interrogated) and calculation of generalizing indicators. To formulate conclusions, we will use logical methods: building conclusions and argumentation. The approbation of certain pedagogical tools described in this article showed a significant positive trend in terms of competence in information security issues.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal analysis of rabies in cattle in central Mexico

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Bárcenas-Reyes ◽  
Diana Paulina Nieves-Martínez ◽  
José Quintín Cuador-Gil ◽  
Elizabeth Loza-Rubio ◽  
Sara González-Ruíz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Spatial Epidemiology ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Spatial Continuity ◽  
Simple Kriging ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature

Spatial epidemiology of bat-transmitted rabies in cattle has been limited to spatial distribution of cases, an approach that does not identify hidden patterns and the spread resulting in outbreaks in endemic and susceptible areas. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the three variables average annual maximum, annual minimum temperature and precipitation in the region on the one hand, and the spatial distribution of cases on the other, using geographic information systems and co-Kriging considering that these environmental variables condition the existence of the rabies vector Desmodus rotundus. A stationary behaviour between the primary and the secondary variables was verified by basic statistics and moving window statistics. The directions of greater and lesser spatial continuity were determined by experimental cross-semivariograms. It was found that the highest risk for bovine paralytic rabies occurs in areas known as La Huasteca Potosina and La Sierra Gorda that are characterized by a maximum temperature of 29.5 °C, a minimum temperature of 16.5 °C and precipitation of 1200 mm. A risk estimation map was obtained for the presence of rabies with a determination coefficient greater than 95%, and a correlation coefficient greater than 0.95. Our conclusion is that ordinary co- Kriging provides a better estimation of risk and spatial distribution of rabies than simple Kriging, making this the method recommended for risk estimation and regional distribution of rabies.

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