scholarly journals The Effect of Regret-Based Risky Route Choice on the Traffic Equilibrium for Emergency Evacuation

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Ze Wang ◽  
Haiqiang Yang ◽  
Linglin Ni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Choice Situation ◽  
Traffic Equilibrium ◽  
The Road ◽  
Psychological Behavior ◽  
Evacuation Traffic ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Regret Aversion

Following the research on human decision-making under risk and uncertainty, the purpose of this paper is to analyze evacuees’ risky route decision behavior and its effect on traffic equilibrium. It examines the possibility of applying regret theory to model travellers’ regret-taking behavior and network equilibrium in emergency context. By means of modifying the utility function in expected utility theory, a regret-based evacuation traffic equilibrium model is established, accounting for the evacuee’s psychological behavior of regret aversion and risk aversion. Facing two parallel evacuation routes choice situation, the effect of evacuees’ risk aversion and regret aversion on traffic equilibrium is numerically investigated as well as the road capacity reduction from natural disaster. The findings reveal that evacuees prefer the riskless route with the lower travel time as the increase of the regret aversion degree. The equilibrium tends to be achieved when more evacuees choose the safer route jointly affected by risk aversion and regret aversion. Moreover, an optimization model for disaster occurring possibility is formulated to assess the traffic system performance for evacuation management. These findings are helpful for understanding how the regret aversion and risk aversion influence traffic equilibrium.

scholarly journals The quantification of type-2 prudence in asset allocation by the trustees of a retirement fund

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-202
Author(s):  
Robert J. Thomson ◽  
Taryn L. Reddy
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Defined Contribution ◽  
New Class ◽  
Retirement Funds

AbstractIn this paper, consideration is given to the normative use of expected-utility theory for the purposes of asset allocation by the trustees of retirement funds. A distinction is drawn between “type-1 prudence”, which relates to deliberate conservatism on the part of actuaries in the setting of assumptions and the determination of model parameters, and “type-2 prudence”, which relates to the risk aversion of the trustees. The intention of the research was to quantify type-2 prudence for the purposes of asset allocation, both for defined-contribution (DC) and defined-benefit (DB) funds. The authors propose new definitions of the objective variables used as the argument of the utility function: one for DC funds and another for DB funds. A new class of utility functions, referred to as the “weighted average relative risk aversion” class is proposed. Practicalities of implementation are discussed. Illustrative results of the application of the method are presented, and it is shown that the proposed approach resolves the paradox of counter-intuitive results found in the literature regarding the sensitivity of the optimal asset allocation to the funding level of a DB fund.

scholarly journals A Multistory Building Evacuation Model Based on Multiple-Factor Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Tanghong Wu ◽  
Gaofan Zhang ◽  
Zichuan Fan
Keyword(s):  
Functional Relationship ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Multiple Factor Analysis ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Building Evacuation ◽  
Access Path ◽  
Multistory Building ◽  
Evacuation Model ◽  
Evacuation Routes

Emergency evacuation is an important issue in public security. To make a considerate plan, various situations are presented including blocking the accident area and letting the emergency access path available. In order to offer dynamic evacuation routes due to different circumstances, a multistory building evacuation model is proposed. Firstly, to analyse the patency of the building, an evacuation formula is applied after binary processing. The function of evacuation time and some other parameters is given by means of regression analysis. Secondly, the cellular automata (CA) algorithm was applied to illustrate the effect of the bottleneck. The response of evacuation time could be approximately optimized through calculating time step of the CA simulation. Finally, the value of maximum evacuation population density could be determined according to the analysis of CA simulation results, which was related to the switch state of the emergency channel. The emergency evacuation model was simulated by using the Louvre museum as an example. The results of the simulation presented some feasible evacuation routes in all kinds of situations. Furthermore, the functional relationship would also be given among evacuation time with the diversity of tourists, pedestrian density, and width of exits. It can give a different perspective that the multistory building evacuation model shows excellent adaptability to different circumstances.

Adequacy of Safe Egress Design Codes for Supertall Buildings

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 568-580
Author(s):  
Edgar C. L. Pang ◽  
◽  
Wan-Ki Chow
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Tall Buildings ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Commercial Building ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Normal Heights ◽  
Evacuation Routes

Emergency evacuation for supertall buildings with heights over 200 m require a very long time for occupants to travel down the buildings. Occupants might jam into protected lobbies and staircases, extending the waiting time. There is not yet any code requirement specifically for emergency evacuation in supertall buildings, which are criticized for using the same codes for buildings with normal heights. Further, the evacuation design for several existing supertall buildings does not even follow prescriptive fire-safety codes. The underlying problems have not yet been addressed by thorough studies. Evacuation in such tall buildings in Hong Kong will be studied in this paper. The assumptions made in the local prescriptive codes for safe egress will be justified. Three buildings with evacuation design complying with the local codes are considered as examples. A commercial building, a hotel, and a residential block in Hong Kong are taken as examples. The key design parameters in the local codes are for 40 people evacuating with a flow rate of 1.1 person/s through the staircase between typical floors. The evacuation time from each floor to the protected lobby is assumed to be within 5 min. The evacuation times in different scenarios with these assumptions are calculated. Such assumptions do not hold under a high occupant load. The total evacuation time would be extended significantly when the travelling flows of occupants are blocked in any of the evacuation routes. Different fire-safety management schemes with staged evacuation, such as assigning higher priorities to evacuate lower or upper floors first, are evaluated. The results observed for safe egress are then discussed.

Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice

1988 ◽  
Vol 82 (3) ◽  
pp. 719-736 ◽  
Author(s):  
George A. Quattrone ◽  
Amos Tversky
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Risky Choice ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
Risk Seeking ◽  
Psychological Analysis

We contrast the rational theory of choice in the form of expected utility theory with descriptive psychological analysis in the form of prospect theory, using problems involving the choice between political candidates and public referendum issues. The results showed that the assumptions underlying the classical theory of risky choice are systematically violated in the manner predicted by prospect theory. In particular, our respondents exhibited risk aversion in the domain of gains, risk seeking in the domain of losses, and a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains. This is consistent with the advantage of the incumbent under normal conditions and the potential advantage of the challenger in bad times. The results further show how a shift in the reference point could lead to reversals of preferences in the evaluation of political and economic options, contrary to the assumption of invariance. Finally, we contrast the normative and descriptive analyses of uncertainty in choice and address the rationality of voting.

scholarly journals Psychological parameters have units: A bug fix for stochastic prospect theory and other decision models

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Stewart ◽  
Benjamin Scheibehenne ◽  
Thorsten Pachur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Decision Models ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Choice Data ◽  
Physical Sciences ◽  
Parameter Measuring ◽  
Choice Probabilities

To fit models like prospect theory or expected utility theory to choice data, a stochastic model is needed to turn differences in values into choice probabilities. In these models, the parameter measuring risk aversion is strongly correlated with the parameter measuring the sensitivity to differences in value. We use dimensional analysis from the physical sciences to show that this is because the sensitivity parameter has units which depend on the risk aversion parameter. This means that comparing sensitivities across individuals with different level of risk aversion is meaningless and forbidden. We suggest a simple bug fix for prospect theory and other decision models which corrects this problem. The bug fix completely removes the correlation between sensitivity and risk aversion parameters in model estimations and allows the parameters to be interpreted as they were originally intended.

The Road Ahead

2019 ◽  
pp. 229-238
Author(s):  
Richard Pettigrew
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
The Road ◽  
Risk Sensitive ◽  
Aggregate Utility ◽  
Imprecise Credences ◽  
Theory Framework

This final chapter of the book summarizes the conclusions of the preceding chapters and looks forward to how the Aggregate Utility Solution might be generalized so that it applies not only to the expected utility theory framework, but also to other frameworks for rational decision-making. In particular, it explains how we might extend the Aggregate Utility Solution to the framework of imprecise credences and utilities, and to the framework of risk-sensitive decision theories.

scholarly journals Risk Aversion, the Value of Information, and Traffic Equilibrium

2012 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
André de Palma ◽  
Robin Lindsey ◽  
Nathalie Picard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Traffic Equilibrium
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