scholarly journals On the Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Ebola Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Mirirai Chinyoka ◽  
Tinashe B. Gashirai ◽  
Steady Mushayabasa
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Traditional Beliefs ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Nonlinear Incidence Rates

We propose a new fractional-order model to investigate the transmission and spread of Ebola virus disease. The proposed model incorporates relevant biological factors that characterize Ebola transmission during an outbreak. In particular, we have assumed that susceptible individuals are capable of contracting the infection from a deceased Ebola patient due to traditional beliefs and customs practiced in many African countries where frequent outbreaks of the disease are recorded. We conducted both epidemic and endemic analysis, with a focus on the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number. Model parameters were estimated based on the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. In addition, numerical simulation results are presented to demonstrate the analytical findings.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in West Africa: regional resource mobilisation and allocation in the first year of the pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. e004762
Author(s):  
Césaire Ahanhanzo ◽  
Ermel Ameswue Kpogbe Johnson ◽  
Ejemai Amaize Eboreime ◽  
Sombié Issiaka ◽  
Ben Idrissa Traoré ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
First Year ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
African Health ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Resource Mobilisation

The world continues to battle the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Whereas many countries are currently experiencing the second wave of the outbreak; Africa, despite being the last continent to be affected by the virus, has not experienced as much devastation as other continents. For example, West Africa, with a population of 367 million people, had confirmed 412 178 cases of COVID-19 with 5363 deaths as of 14 March 2021; compared with the USA which had recorded almost 30 million cases and 530 000 deaths, despite having a slightly smaller population (328 million). Several postulations have been made in an attempt to explain this phenomenon. One hypothesis is that African countries have leveraged on experiences from past epidemics to build resilience and response strategies which may be contributing to protecting the continent’s health systems from being overwhelmed. This practice paper from the West African Health Organization presents experience and data from the field on how countries in the region mobilised support to address the pandemic in the first year, leveraging on systems, infrastructure, capacities developed and experiences from the 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak.

Roles and strategies of international humanitarian organisations in handling the Liberia Ebola outbreak

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Bainga Kangbai ◽  
Ahmed Alameldeen
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Preparedness ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
West African ◽  
World Health ◽  
Healthcare Personnel ◽  
African Countries ◽  
History Of ◽  
Public Health Emergency Preparedness

Abstract Background In Early August 2014, the World Health Organisation declared an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the region of West Africa. The West African EVD outbreak was the largest, most severe, and complex in the nearly four-decade history of this disease. The management of EVD cases in Liberia was similar to the other affected West African countries. Methods We reviewed the method and strategies used by some of the international humanitarian organisations in handling the 2013-2016 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. This report is a collection of personal field experiences in Liberia as well as personal interviews of healthcare personnel working for some of these international organisations working on the Ebola emergency in Liberia. Findings Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) was the first humanitarian NGO to deploy medical staff to the field in Liberia during the 2013-2016 EVD outbreak. MSF staffs were already operating in Liberia even before the declaration of the outbreak in August 2014.Conclusions The slow response by the international humanitarian organisations to lend their support in bringing the EVD outbreak to and exhibited the fear the international community have for deadly infectious diseases more than armed conflicts.Recommendations We recommend regularly training in public health emergency preparedness for third world countries that are highly susceptible to health emergencies such as Ebola outbreak to help prepared them ahead of such outbreak.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Response in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons From Uganda

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. e46-e48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Lumu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
East African ◽  
Limited Disease ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Response Team ◽  
Sub Saharan

ABSTRACTThe prolongation of the Ebola epidemic may have allowed some countries to prepare and respond to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. In Uganda, the surveillance structure built for Ebola virus disease (EVD) has become a pillar in the COVID-19 response. This testing and tracing apparatus has limited disease spread to clusters with zero mortality compared with the neighboring East African countries. As more sub-Saharan countries implement social distancing to contain the outbreak, the interventions should be phased and balanced with health risk and socioeconomic situation. However, having a decision-making matrix would better guide the response team. These initial lessons from EVD-experienced Uganda may be helpful to other countries in the region.

Ebola virus screening during pregnancy in West Africa: unintended consequences

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Deaver ◽  
Wayne R. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
West African ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Life Saving ◽  
Intervention Policy

AbstractWe hypothesized that predictive value of traditional Ebola virus disease (EVD) screening in West African pregnant women is low because febrile and hemorrhagic complications of pregnancy that can mimic EVD are common.Proportions of various categories of pregnancy loss from a hypothetical cohort of West African gravidas were used to construct a Kaplan-Meier curve. The incidence rate of each category was determined by multiplying its proportion by the overall incidence rate, calculated from the inverse of the area under the curve. Incidence rates of Ebola-like illnesses during pregnancy were obtained by multiplying their percentages by the incidence rates of categories of loss with which they coincide.During pregnancy about 1.5% of suspected EVD cases would prove to have EVD. Most of the remaining 98.5% would have hemorrhagic and febrile complications of pregnancy.Current guidelines consider obstetrical interventions inappropriate in suspected EVD during pregnancy. However, because the overwhelming majority of cases suspected by screening do not have EVD and might benefit from obstetrical intervention, policy makers must consider whether the small risk to properly protected health care workers from the 1.5% with true EVD justifies withholding potentially life-saving care from the 98.5% who ultimately test negative for EVD.

scholarly journals Region level risk factors for the Ebola virus disease in West Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Levy ◽  
Agricola Odoi
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Bodily Fluids ◽  
Married Men ◽  
Future Outbreak

Background. The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a highly infectious disease that has claimed over 25,000 cases in the past 50 years. While many past outbreaks of EVD resulted in relatively few incidents, the 2014 outbreak in West Africa was the most deadly occurrence of EVD to date producing over 15,000 confirmed cases. Objective. In this study we relate total confirmed case counts of EVD to predictor variables at the region level in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. Methods. We used a Poisson framework and negative binomial framework to relate the predictors to the outcome. A spatial analysis was conducted to further our understanding and help interpret results. Results. Results indicate that the percent of the population living in urban areas, percent of household with a bad quality or no toilet, and percent of married men working in blue collar jobs protect against the transmission of EVD. Our study also shows that mean years of education contributes to increased case counts of the disease. Conclusions. Each significant predictor are associated with the types of dynamics that either protect against, or exacerbate, the spread of EVD. While having limited contact with the bodily fluids of others, reduced person-to-person contact, and isolated population clusters protect against the spread of EVD, the types of daily interactions an educated individual will experience leads to higher incidence rates. This information can be used to identify potential transmission routes and prevent future outbreak of this deadly disease.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Outbreak in Africa: Lessons and Insights from the West African Ebola Virus Disease Epidemics

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 96-99
Author(s):  
Oluwafolajimi Adetoye Adesanya
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Past Experiences

Over the years, the African continent has had to battle several outbreaks of infectious diseases in different countries. Some of the most deadly were the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks that occurred in West Africa between 2014 and 2016 affecting Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone and, more recently, from 2018 to 2020 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important that as a continent, we draw lessons and insights from our past experiences to guide outbreak response strategies being deployed to curb the latest onslaught. The Ebola outbreaks have shown that disease outbreaks should not be seen only as medical emergencies, but as full blown humanitarian crises, because oftentimes, their socio-economic impacts are more devastating than the more obvious cost to life. In this mini-review, we explore the possible humanitarian costs of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent by looking through the lens of our past experiences with the EVD outbreaks, highlighting how the current pandemic could significantly affect the African economy, food security, and vulnerable demographics, like children and the sexual and reproductive health and rights of women and girls. We then proffer recommendations that could be instrumental in preventing a double tragedy involving the devastating health consequences of the virus itself and the deadly fallout from its multi-sectoral knock-on effects in African countries. Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Ebola Virus Disease, Coronavirus.

scholarly journals The 100 top-Cited Studies on Ebola: A Bibliometric Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Kawuki ◽  
Taha Hussein Musa ◽  
Shireen Salome Papabathini ◽  
Upama Ghimire ◽  
Nathan Obore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bibliometric Analysis ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Number Of Citations ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: The achievements in Ebola virus disease (EVD) prevention and control can be reflected by scientific studies, particularly in the top-cited studies. The study thus aimed to identify and characterise the 100 top-cited studies of Ebola.Methods: The study used a retrospective bibliometric analysis, which was performed in January 2020. Studies were searched from the Web of Science using the keywords: “Ebola” or “Ebola virus” or “Ebola virus disease” to identify the 100 top-cited ebola studies. Studies were analysed for the number of citations, authorship, and journal, year of publication, country and institution. The analyses were carried out using SPSS, HistCite and VOSviewer.Results: The 100 top-cited studies were published between 1977 and 2017, were cited from 169 to 808 times and had an average citation of 290.5, and 8 studies were cited more than 500 times. They were published in 31 journals, and Journal of Virology published most of the studies (n=14). They were produced by 33 countries, and the USA published most of the studies (63), followed by Germany (8) and Gabon (6). Centre for Disease prevention and Control-USA (26) was the leading institution, while Geisbert TW and Sanchez A were the most productive authors.Conclusions: This study provides insights into the historical advancements reflected by the top-cited studies and has highlighted the leading roles played by various stakeholders in addressing EVD. However, the contribution of African countries is not sufficiently reflected among these studies, and so more focus, funding and involvement in clinical research is needed for effective prevention and control of EVD in Africa.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document