scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on Port Production and Operation Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Shanghai Port in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zili Tai ◽  
Ji Guo ◽  
Yeli Guan ◽  
Qingquan Shi
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Logistics Network ◽  
Cargo Transport ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Production And Operation

Since the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 has severely affected port production and operation. There is little research on the systematic impact assessment. This study took Shanghai Port as an example and evaluated the impact under different scenarios through establishing a System Dynamics model. It is found that the epidemic mainly has a greater impact on passenger transport, but less on cargo transport. The ports with the function of transportation in highway, railway, and waterway were the key nodes in the international logistics network. More attention should be paid to the impact assessment of COVID-19 on ports’ production and operation. It is necessary to strengthen the port’s collection and distribution capabilities, improve port production efficiency, and further strengthen port modernization. This research method proposed in this paper can provide a reference for the impact assessment of similar events, and the empirical results can provide a reference for handling the epidemic shock for the port and shipping departments.

scholarly journals An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Pasqualino ◽  
Irene Monasterolo ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Online Stores’ Sales: Positive and Negative E-WOM and Promotion Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 6045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Yan ◽  
Simin Zhou ◽  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
Ye Li
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Real Data ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Sustainable Operations ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Interaction Diagram ◽  
Online Stores ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we build a causal interaction diagram between the factors that may influence the sales and profits of online stores. An online store’s real operation data were used to help determine the causal relationship between variables. Finally, we proposed a system dynamics model and conducted a simulation of the operation of an online store. In this model, we focused on the impact of promotion and positive/negative electronic word of mouth (e-WOM) on the sales and profits of the online stores. The simulation results showed a similar trend to the real data and the main research finding showed that promotion is not a long-term measure for the sustainable development of online stores. Excessive promotion effort may lead to consumers’ dissatisfaction leading the increase of negative e-WOM. The systematic simulation can help us understand better the long-term effect of promotion and e-WOM on the operation of online stores. Finally, we gave some management suggestions for online stores’ sustainable operations.

scholarly journals Framing User Confidence in a System Dynamics Model: the Case of a Workforce Planning Problem in the New Zealand Army

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jason Yves Markham
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Workforce Planning ◽  
Planning Problem ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Constant Comparative Analysis

<p>Despite unresolved controversy and ongoing debate about user confidence in system dynamics models, there has been limited empirical exploration of the concept of user confidence in system dynamics models. This research elicited the concept of user confidence using a framing method (Russo & Schoemaker, 1989); analyzed the confidence criteria using constant comparative analysis (Cavana, Delahaye & Sekaran, 2001) and organized the confidence criteria into a descriptive framework. This research was conducted as an ethnographic case study of a New Zealand Army workforce planning problem. The simultaneous objectives of this research were to elicit the concept of user confidence in a system dynamics model and to assess the usefulness of the framing method for ascertaining user confidence criteria. The findings suggest that users of a system dynamics model had unique views of confidence, and while these views changed during the model-building project, they shared a common perspective of utility. Interestingly, user confidence criteria did not change significantly between the qualitative and quantitative stages of model-building. Output from the system dynamics workforce model supported the dynamic hypothesis that the use of ‘aspirational’ separation forecasts have contributed to New Zealand Army workforce shortfalls during times of high labour demand. Additionally, framing proved to be a useful methodology for eliciting and interpreting the elusive concept of user confidence in this case study. This case study concludes that although the confidence criteria of model users are diverse, extensive and difficult to elicit; framing can be employed as an interpretive filter to ascertain the elements of user confidence.</p>

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