Ontology Based RT-Delphi with Explanation Capabilities

Author(s):  
Ahmed Omran ◽  
Motaz Khorshid

<p>Real-Time (RT) Delphi approach is widely used method for knowledge acquisition process. The current RT-Delphi approach ignores considering the unifying domain concepts and their attributes. This limitation can provide the contradiction of the domain experts' judgments and increasing misunderstandings when talking about specific topics. In addition, the current RT-Delphi ignores the explanation capabilities for consensus results, which it is vital for policy/decision makers to be more confidence. The core of this research is to develop ontology-based RT-Delphi with explanation capabilities. We applied the developed approach in to two crucial important case studies in Egypt, which are food security and water security.</p>

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro N Carvalho ◽  
David Finger ◽  
Fabio Masi ◽  
Giulia Cipolletta ◽  
Hasan Volkan Oral ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;The water, energy, and food security nexus (WEF Nexus) is the interlinkage between water security, energy security, and food security. An increasing world population is projected to increase energy and food requirements, which will increase the need for freshwater drastically in the coming decades. Projected climate change impacts will aggravate water availability, especially in urban areas. Nature-based solutions (NBS) have proven to generate multiple benefits that defuse the expected merging tensions within the WEF Nexus. This paper outlines the theories, provides examples, and discusses the potential of NBS to address the future WEF Nexus. For this purpose we reviewed recent papers on the theories of WE, WF, EF, and WEF Nexus, we described and summarized 19 representative real-life case studies, and we identified the knowledge gap within the theory and the case studies. We provide quantitative potentials and qualitative benefits for NBS described in the literature over the past decades. Our review demonstrated the impressive potential of NBS to address the projected challenges within the WEF Nexus. The study concludes by recommending NBS for specific WEF Nexus challenges and highlighting the need for decision-makers to consider the implementation of NBS in urban planings.&lt;/p&gt;


Author(s):  
Siamak Farshidi ◽  
Slinger Jansen ◽  
Sven Fortuin

AbstractModel-driven development platforms shift the focus of software development activity from coding to modeling for enterprises. A significant number of such platforms are available in the market. Selecting the best fitting platform is challenging, as domain experts are not typically model-driven deployment platform experts and have limited time for acquiring the needed knowledge. We model the problem as a multi-criteria decision-making problem and capture knowledge systematically about the features and qualities of 30 alternative platforms. Through four industry case studies, we confirm that the model supports decision-makers with the selection problem by reducing the time and cost of the decision-making process and by providing a richer list of options than the enterprises considered initially. We show that having decision knowledge readily available supports decision-makers in making more rational, efficient, and effective decisions. The study’s theoretical contribution is the observation that the decision framework provides a reliable approach for creating decision models in software production.


Author(s):  
Anne C. Rouse

For the past 15 years, governments in the developed, Western world have been contracting out, or outsourcing, services as a key part of publicsector reforms. Outsourcing has been argued to lead to cost savings, improved discipline, better services, access to scarce skills, and the capacity for managers to focus more time on the core business of their organizations (Domberger, 1998). Government outsourcing initiatives have encompassed a range of services, but given the large sums of money invested in IT assets, the outsourcing of IT services (IT outsourcing, or ITO) has been a major initiative for many agencies. Lacity and Willcocks (1998, p. 3) defined ITO as “handing over to a third party [the] management of IS/IT assets, resources and/or activities for required results.” For public-sector outsourcing, this handover is usually made by way of a competitive tender. Case studies have reported ITO successes and failures (e.g., Currie & Willcocks, 1998; Rouse & Corbitt, 2003; Willcocks & Currie, 1997; Lacity and Willcocks, 2001; Willcocks & Kern, 1998), but much of the evidence presented to public-sector decision makers to justify this reform is anecdotal and unsystematic, and when investigated in depth, does not necessarily support widespread conclusions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aliya Assubayeva ◽  
Stefanos Xenarios ◽  
Albina Li ◽  
Siamac Fazli

&lt;p&gt;Water security in Central Asia (CA) plays a vital role because of transboundary river systems and interconnected infrastructure assets. Each CA country has differently contextualized the water security notion to serve national priorities and needs. Various scholars have studied and interpreted the concept of water security in CA through economic, environmental, social, and technical perspectives. Yet however, there is very little information on the perceptions of policymakers and water professionals that are directly engaged with the water policy discourse in the CA region.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this regard, we attempted to identify policy makers and water professionals' views on water management and security aspects in CA. &amp;#160;A Delphi method was introduced through a two-round survey to decision-makers and water professionals to assess the rate of agreement on different water security dimensions that have been identified through a thorough literature review.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Namely, the dimensions associated with urban &amp; household facilities, economic activities, environmental aspects and natural hazards were assessed, whereas different attributes related to each dimension were also considered. The first survey round explored the rate of agreement in the following six different sections: the proposed water security dimensions (1) and attributes (2) in CA; historical trends and dynamics of each dimension (3) and the implications on a policy level (4); the national priorities for each country (5); and the effectiveness of mechanisms dealing with regional water security issues (6). &amp;#160;The second round synopsized the initial findings by exploring whether a higher agreement rate was attained in each of the sections mentioned above.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;Clustering analysis was applied to better identify the agreement rate and assess decision-makers and water professionals' behavioral patterns within the two-survey rounds.&amp;#160; A number of clustering techniques were tested out. Methods such as K-Medoids, Spectral, Hierarchical, and Agglomerative clustering, as well as the Affinity Propagation, were applied. Hyperparameters were chosen based on the observations of how well the clusters are formed, i.e., how similar the responses are within the cluster and how much they differ from other clusters. The clustering was applied to the whole range of responses, as well as separately on different sections of the surveys. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The findings indicate that the clustering of all six parts did not clearly define separation and distinctive agreement rates in the first survey round. However, when the clustering was performed within specific sections, e.g., the national priorities in each country, behavioral patterns were revealed among respondents. The clustering trends among sections became more apparent in the second survey round. &amp;#160;Our preliminary findings indicate that a set of socio-demographic and professional-related features of the participants are aligned with the patterns of the clustering outcomes on water security priorities in CA. The study findings could identify the major challenges that policymakers and water professionals face being mutually addressed by improving water security dialogue in the CA region.&lt;/p&gt;


2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 392-403
Author(s):  
Fred Chernoff

This paper seeks to show ways in which analytic eclecticism can be strengthened to encourage hybrid theorizing capable of yielding more practically useful principles for foreign policy decision-makers. The paper also seeks to show that some of the advantages of analytic eclecticism are overstated, notably the ability to sidestep difficult questions in the philosophy of social science. Nevertheless, with a proper deepening of their discussion of pragmatism, the core of the practical consequences of analytic eclecticism can be advanced with greater force and with a strengthened methodological rationale.


2010 ◽  
pp. 276-285
Author(s):  
Anne Rouse

For the past 15 years, governments in the developed, Western world have been contracting out, or outsourcing, services as a key part of publicsector reforms. Outsourcing has been argued to lead to cost savings, improved discipline, better services, access to scarce skills, and the capacity for managers to focus more time on the core business of their organizations (Domberger, 1998). Government outsourcing initiatives have encompassed a range of services, but given the large sums of money invested in IT assets, the outsourcing of IT services (IT outsourcing, or ITO) has been a major initiative for many agencies. Lacity and Willcocks (1998, p. 3) defined ITO as “handing over to a third party [the] management of IS/IT assets, resources and/or activities for required results.” For public-sector outsourcing, this handover is usually made by way of a competitive tender. Case studies have reported ITO successes and failures (e.g., Currie & Willcocks, 1998; Rouse & Corbitt, 2003; Willcocks & Currie, 1997; Lacity and Willcocks, 2001; Willcocks & Kern, 1998), but much of the evidence presented to public-sector decision makers to justify this reform is anecdotal and unsystematic, and when investigated in depth, does not necessarily support widespread conclusions.


water energy food nexus (WEF) originates in the interconnections between the three resources as they are significant input for the production of each other and have major impacts on each other when mobilized and or utilized, conditioning the requirement of intertwined management and sustainability for all (fig.1). Therefore, the solutions for water, energy and food security problems are beyond the single-minded technical approach that mainly focuses on technology. The Nexus approach integrates management and governance across sectors and scales, with the aim of achieving water security, sustainable energy and food security to reduce hunger and poverty, and improve livelihoods. It is about governance within the three sectors and other relevant ones. It entails collaboration and coordination amongst the relevant sectors through the adoption of a holistic vision and integrated planning manners. This allows decision makers to develop the right strategies and plans that contribute to the achievement of sustainable development, maximize the benefits of the investments and ensure resources sustainability.


2011 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 256-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Matthys ◽  
Pieter van ‘t Veer ◽  
Lisette de Groot ◽  
Lee Hooper ◽  
Adriënne E.J.M. Cavelaars ◽  
...  

In Europe, micronutrient dietary reference values have been established by (inter)national committees of experts and are used by public health policy decision-makers to monitor and assess the adequacy of diets within population groups. The approaches used to derive dietary reference values (including average requirements) vary considerably across countries, and so far no evidence-based reason has been identified for this variation. Nutrient requirements are traditionally based on the minimum amount of a nutrient needed by an individual to avoid deficiency, and is defined by the body’s physiological needs. Alternatively the requirement can be defined as the intake at which health is optimal, including the prevention of chronic diet-related diseases. Both approaches are confronted with many challenges (e. g., bioavailability, inter and intra-individual variability). EURRECA has derived a transparent approach for the quantitative integration of evidence on Intake-Status-Health associations and/or Factorial approach (including bioavailability) estimates. To facilitate the derivation of dietary reference values, EURopean micronutrient RECommendations Aligned (EURRECA) is developing a process flow chart to guide nutrient requirement-setting bodies through the process of setting dietary reference values, which aims to facilitate the scientific alignment of deriving these values.


Author(s):  
Manju Rahi ◽  
Payal Das ◽  
Amit Sharma

Abstract Malaria surveillance is weak in high malaria burden countries. Surveillance is considered as one of the core interventions for malaria elimination. Impressive reductions in malaria-associated morbidity and mortality have been achieved across the globe, but sustained efforts need to be bolstered up to achieve malaria elimination in endemic countries like India. Poor surveillance data become a hindrance in assessing the progress achieved towards malaria elimination and in channelizing focused interventions to the hotspots. A major obstacle in strengthening India’s reporting systems is that the surveillance data are captured in a fragmented manner by multiple players, in silos, and is distributed across geographic regions. In addition, the data are not reported in near real-time. Furthermore, multiplicity of malaria data resources limits interoperability between them. Here, we deliberate on the acute need of updating India’s surveillance systems from the use of aggregated data to near real-time case-based surveillance. This will help in identifying the drivers of malaria transmission in any locale and therefore will facilitate formulation of appropriate interventional responses rapidly.


2021 ◽  
Vol 93 ◽  
pp. 107278
Author(s):  
Jhonattan Miranda ◽  
Christelle Navarrete ◽  
Julieta Noguez ◽  
José-Martin Molina-Espinosa ◽  
María-Soledad Ramírez-Montoya ◽  
...  

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