Abstract 14677: Distribution of 10- and 30-year Predicted Risks for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in the United States: NHANES 2015 to 2018

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nilay S Shah ◽  
Hongyan Ning ◽  
Amanda Perak ◽  
Norrina B Allen ◽  
John T Wilkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Life Course ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Ascvd Risk ◽  
The Life Course ◽  
Predicted Risk

Introduction: Premature fatal cardiovascular disease rates have plateaued in the US. Identifying population distributions of short- and long-term predicted risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) can inform interventions and policy to improve cardiovascular health over the life course. Methods: Among nonpregnant participants age 30-59 years without prevalent CVD from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2015-18, continuous 10 year (10Y) and 30 year (30Y) predicted ASCVD risk were assigned using the Pooled Cohort Equations and a 30-year competing risk model, respectively. Intermediate/high 10Y risk was defined as ≥7.5%, and high 30Y risk was chosen a priori as ≥20%, based on 2019 guideline levels for risk stratification. Participants were combined into low 10Y/low 30Y, low 10Y/high 30Y, and intermediate/high 10Y categories. We calculated and compared risk distributions overall and across race-sex, age, body mass index (BMI), and education using chi-square tests. Results: In 1495 NHANES participants age 30-59 years (representing 53,022,413 Americans), median 10Y risk was 2.3% and 30Y risk was 15.5%. Approximately 12% of individuals were already estimated to have intermediate/high 10Y risk. Of those at low 10Y risk, 30% had high 30Y predicted risk. Distributions differed significantly by sex, race, age, BMI, and education (P<0.01, Figure ). Black males more frequently had high 10Y risk compared with other race-sex groups. Older individuals, those with BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 , and with ≤high school education had a higher frequency of low 10Y/high 30Y risk. Conclusions: More than one-third of middle-aged U.S. adults have elevated short- or long-term predicted risk for ASCVD. While the majority of middle-aged US adults are at low 10Y risk, a large proportion among this subgroup are at high 30Y ASCVD risk, indicating a substantial need for enhanced clinical and population level prevention earlier in the life course.

Abstract 15422: Distribution of 10- and 30-year Predicted Risks for Heart Failure in the United States: NHANES 2015 to 2018

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nilay S Shah ◽  
Hongyan Ning ◽  
Sanjiv J Shah ◽  
Clyde Yancy ◽  
John T Wilkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Life Course ◽  
The United States ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Life Course ◽  
Predicted Risk

Introduction: Heart failure (HF) poses a significant health burden with prevalence projected to increase by 46% by 2030 in the United States. Targeted implementation and dissemination of clinical and public health preventive measures across the life course will be informed by describing population distributions of short- and long-term predicted HF risk. Methods: Among nonpregnant middle-aged (30-59 years) adults without prevalent CVD from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2015-18, continuous 10-year (10Y) and 30-year (30Y) HF risk estimates were calculated using short- and long-term risk equations derived in the Cardiovascular Lifetime Risk Pooling Project. High estimated 10Y risk was classified as ≥5%, and high 30Y risk as ≥20%. Participants were categorized by combined 10Y and 30Y estimated risk categories overall and stratified by sex, race, age, and body mass index. Distributions were compared using chi-square tests. Results: In 1495 NHANES participants (representing 53,022,413 Americans) with mean age 45 years (SE 0.3), median 10Y risk was 0.8% and 30Y risk was 11%. Approximately 4% of individuals were estimated to have high 10Y predicted risk of HF. Of those who were classified as low 10Y risk, 23% had high 30Y predicted risk. Distributions differed significantly by sex, race, age, and BMI (P<0.01, Figure ). Black males more frequently were classified as high 10Y or 30Y risk compared to other race-sex groups. Older individuals and those with BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 had a higher frequency of low 10Y but high 30Y risk. Conclusions: More than one-fourth of middle-aged U.S. adults have elevated short- or long-term predicted risk for HF. While the majority of middle-aged US adults are at low 10Y risk for HF, a large proportion among this subgroup are at high 30Y HF risk. Application of both short- and long-term HF risk prediction may mitigate the growing morbidity and mortality related to HF and identify strategies to target those at-risk earlier in the life course.

Osteocalcin value to identify subclinical atherosclerosis over atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score in middle-aged and elderly Chinese asymptomatic men

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (11) ◽  
pp. 1962-1969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiting Xu ◽  
Xiaojing Ma ◽  
Qin Xiong ◽  
Xueli Zhang ◽  
Yun Shen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Subclinical Atherosclerosis ◽  
Recognition Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Serum Osteocalcin ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Elderly Men ◽  
Ascvd Risk

Abstract Background: Our study examined whether osteocalcin contributed to identifying carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT) over the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score. Methods: We recruited 618 middle-aged and elderly men from communities in Shanghai. Serum osteocalcin levels were determined using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. C-IMT was measured by ultrasonography. Results: The study included 245 men with low ASCVD risk and 373 men with moderate-to-high ASCVD risk. Serum osteocalcin levels were lower in the moderate-to-high risk vs. low risk men (p=0.042). Multivariate stepwise regression analysis showed that body mass index (BMI) and glycated hemoglobin were predictors for reduced osteocalcin levels (both p<0.001). Among all subjects, the proportion with an elevated C-IMT was higher in the low-osteocalcin group than in the high-osteocalcin group (p=0.042), and the significance of this result was greater when considering only subjects with a moderate-to-high ASCVD risk (p=0.011). The recognition rate of elevated C-IMT was superior with both low osteocalcin and moderate-to-high ASCVD risk vs. either parameter alone (p<0.001 and p=0.015, respectively). Osteocalcin was independently and inversely associated with elevated C-IMT after adjusting for the 10-year ASCVD risk score (p=0.004). The negative relationship remained statistically significant in subjects with a moderate-to-high ASCVD risk in particular (standardized β=−0.104, p=0.044). Conclusions: In middle-aged and elderly men, serum osteocalcin levels strengthen identifying subclinical atherosclerosis over ASCVD risk score, especially among subjects with a moderate-to-high ASCVD risk.

scholarly journals Predicting Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Using Pooled Cohort Equations in Older Adults With Frailty, Multimorbidity, and Competing Risks

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quoc Dinh Nguyen ◽  
Michelle C. Odden ◽  
Carmen A. Peralta ◽  
Dae Hyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Latent Class Analysis ◽  
Competing Risks ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Ascvd Risk ◽  
Predicted Risk

Background Assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is crucial for prevention and management, but the performance of the pooled cohort equations in older adults with frailty and multimorbidity is unknown. We evaluated the pooled cohort equations in these subgroups and the impact of competing risks. Methods and Results In 4249 community‐dwelling adults, aged ≥65 years, from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), we calculated 10‐year risk of hard ASCVD. Frailty was determined using the Fried phenotype. Latent class analysis was used to identify individuals with multimorbidity patterns using chronic conditions. We assessed discrimination using the C‐statistic and calibration by comparing predicted ASCVD risks with estimated risk using cause‐specific and cumulative incidence models, by multimorbidity patterns and frailty status. A total of 917 (21.6%) participants had an ASCVD event, and 706 (16.6%) had a competing event of death. C‐statistic was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women; calibration was good when compared with cause‐specific and cumulative incidence estimated risks (males, −0.1% and 3.3%; females, 0.6% and 1.4%). Latent class analysis identified 4 patterns: minimal disease, cardiometabolic, low cognition, musculoskeletal‐lung depression. In the cardiometabolic pattern, ASCVD risk was overpredicted compared with cumulative incidence risk in men (7.4%) and women (6.8%). Risk was underpredicted in men (−10.7%) and women (−8.2%) with frailty compared with cause‐specific risk. Miscalibration occurred mostly at high predicted risk ranges. Conclusions ASCVD prediction was good in this cohort of adults aged ≥65 years. Although calibration varied by multimorbidity patterns, frailty, and competing risks, miscalibration was mostly present at high predicted risk ranges and thus less likely to alter decision making for primary prevention therapy.

scholarly journals Cigarette Smoking and Competing Risks for Fatal and Nonfatal Cardiovascular Disease Subtypes Across the Life Course

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadiya S. Khan ◽  
Hongyan Ning ◽  
Arjun Sinha ◽  
John Wilkins ◽  
Norrina B. Allen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cigarette Smoking ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
The United States ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Cox Models ◽  
Current Smoking ◽  
Men And Women

Background Cigarette smoking is significantly associated with premature death related and not related to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether risk associated with smoking is similar across CVD subtypes and how this translates into years of life lost is not known. Methods and Results We pooled and harmonized individual‐level data from 9 population‐based cohorts in the United States. All participants were free of clinical CVD at baseline with available data on current smoking status, covariates, and CVD outcomes. We examined the association between smoking status and total CVD and CVD subtypes, including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure, and other CVD deaths. We performed (1) modified Kaplan–Meier analysis to estimate long‐term risks, (2) adjusted competing Cox models to estimate joint cumulative risks for CVD or noncardiovascular death, and (3) Irwin’s restricted mean to estimate years lived free from and with CVD. Of 106 165 adults, 50.4% were women. Overall long‐term risks for CVD events were 46.0% (95% CI, 44.7–47.3) and 34.7% (95% CI, 33.3–36.0) in middle‐aged men and women, respectively. In middle‐aged men who reported smoking compared with those who did not smoke, competing hazard ratios (HRs) were higher for the first presentation being a fatal CVD event (HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.68–1.92]), with a similar pattern among women (HR,1.82 [95% CI, 1.68–1.98]). Smoking was associated with earlier CVD onset by 5.1 and 3.8 years in men and women. Similar patterns were observed in younger and older adults. Conclusions Current smoking was associated with a fatal event as the first manifestation of clinical CVD.

scholarly journals Modified Pooled Cohort Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Equations in American Indians

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
Nawar M. Shara ◽  
Sameer Desale ◽  
Barbara V. Howard ◽  
Zeid Diab ◽  
Wm. James Howard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Renal Function ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
American Indians ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Prediction Equations ◽  
Modified Equations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ascvd Risk

American Indians (AI) have a high prevalence of diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and chronic kidney disease. Inclusion of kidney function and other population-specific characteristics in equations used to predict atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk may help define risk more accurately in populations with these chronic diseases. We used data from the Strong Heart Study (SHS), a population-based longitudinal cohort study of AI, to modify the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort ASCVD risk equations and then explored the performance of the new equations in predicting ASCVD in AI. The study included baseline SHS exam data from 4213 individuals between 45 and 75 years of age, collected in 13 communities from 3 geographic areas in the United States and spanning a wide range of tribal backgrounds, with continuous follow-up data from 1989 to 2015. Using SHS data for blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, smoking, and renal function, Cox proportional hazard models were developed to predict ASCVD-free time for AI men and women. ASCVD risk in AI calculated using the SHS-modified equations were compared to risk calculated using the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equations for African Americans (AAs) and Whites. Goodness-of-fit measures for ASCVD risk prediction showed that the SHS-modified equations fit the data from the SHS better than the ACC/AHA equations for AAs and Whites. Adjusting risk prediction equations using population data from the SHS and including measures of renal function significantly improved ASCVD risk prediction in our AI cohort.

scholarly journals Impact of disasters, including pandemics, on cardiometabolic outcomes across the life-course: a systematic review

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. e047152
Author(s):  
Vanessa De Rubeis ◽  
Jinhee Lee ◽  
Muhammad Saqib Anwer ◽  
Yulika Yoshida-Montezuma ◽  
Alessandra T Andreacchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Life Course ◽  
Cardiometabolic Risk ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Cardiometabolic Health ◽  
Obesity And Diabetes ◽  
The Life Course ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundDisasters are events that disrupt the daily functioning of a community or society, and may increase long-term risk of adverse cardiometabolic outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, obesity and diabetes. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review to determine the impact of disasters, including pandemics, on cardiometabolic outcomes across the life-course.DesignA systematic search was conducted in May 2020 using two electronic databases, EMBASE and Medline. All studies were screened in duplicate at title and abstract, and full-text level. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they assessed the association between a population-level or community disaster and cardiometabolic outcomes ≥1 month following the disaster. There were no restrictions on age, year of publication, country or population. Data were extracted on study characteristics, exposure (eg, type of disaster, region, year), cardiometabolic outcomes and measures of effect. Study quality was evaluated using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools.ResultsA total of 58 studies were included, with 24 studies reporting the effects of exposure to disaster during pregnancy/childhood and 34 studies reporting the effects of exposure during adulthood. Studies included exposure to natural (n=35; 60%) and human-made (n=23; 40%) disasters, with only three (5%) of these studies evaluating previous pandemics. Most studies reported increased cardiometabolic risk, including increased cardiovascular disease incidence or mortality, diabetes and obesity, but not all. Few studies evaluated the biological mechanisms or high-risk subgroups that may be at a greater risk of negative health outcomes following disasters.ConclusionsThe findings from this study suggest that the burden of disasters extend beyond the known direct harm, and attention is needed on the detrimental indirect long-term effects on cardiometabolic health. Given the current COVID-19 pandemic, these findings may inform public health prevention strategies to mitigate the impact of future cardiometabolic risk.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42020186074.

Abstract 13298: The Association Between Coronary Artery Calcium and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Women With Early Menopause: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Chu ◽  
Erin D Michos ◽  
Pamela Ouyang ◽  
Dhananjay Vaidya ◽  
Roger S Blumenthal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Postmenopausal Women ◽  
Coronary Artery Calcium ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Early Menopause ◽  
Ethnic Study ◽  
Ascvd Risk

Background: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of mortality among women, and early menopause (EM) is associated with an increased risk for ASCVD. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a non-invasive measurement of an individual’s subclinical atherosclerotic burden that is used to refine ASCVD risk estimation, and the absence of CAC is a robust predictor of low 10-year ASCVD risk. However, it is unknown whether there is a difference in the long-term association between the absence of CAC and ASCVD risk between women with and without EM. Objectives: To compare the prevalence of CAC and its association with incident ASCVD between women with and without EM. Methods: We performed Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling using data from 2,456 postmenopausal women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with or without EM, defined as occurring at <45 years of age. Results: Participants had a mean age of 64.1 years, 39% were White, and 28% (n=688) experienced EM. There were 291 ASCVD events over a mean follow-up of 12.5 years. Women with EM had a slightly lower prevalence of CAC=0 (55.1%) than women without EM (59.7%) (p=0.04) despite no difference in mean age. Among women with CAC=0, the cumulative incidence of ASCVD was slightly higher at 10-year follow-up for women with vs. without EM (5.4% vs. 3.2%, p=0.06) and significantly higher at 15-years (11.4% vs. 6.4%, p<0.01) (Figure). In multivariable Cox models, compared to women with CAC=0, those with CAC 1-99 and ≥100 had progressively increased ASCVD risk that did not significantly differ by EM status. Conclusions: More than half of postmenopausal women with EM had CAC=0 and an associated low-to-borderline 10-year risk of ASCVD. When CAC>0, the risk of ASCVD was similar for women with and without EM. Additional research is needed to better understand very long-term differences in ASCVD risk between women with and without EM who have CAC=0.

Folklore and Folklife of American Age Groups and Aging

2018 ◽  
pp. 844-866
Author(s):  
Mary L. Sellers
Keyword(s):  
Life Course ◽  
Group Identity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Childhood And Adolescence ◽  
Folk Traditions ◽  
Values And Beliefs ◽  
Infancy And Early Childhood ◽  
The Life Course ◽  
Pregnancy And Birth

Folklore occurs at every stage of a person’s life, and this chapter covers the way folklore and folklife across, and of, the life course has been studied. Six divisions in the life course that mark traditions of age groups as well as perceived stages in the United States are pregnancy and birth, infancy and early childhood, childhood and adolescence, adulthood, seniority, and death. Although much of the scholarship of age groups has been on the beginning and end of life, I demonstrate the conditions of aging in adolescence through the senior years that generate folklore and should be studied in relation to formation of age-group identity. This chapter emphasizes the use of folklore as an adaptation to aging. It examines the connection of folk traditions to the role that anxiety plays in the aging process, the formation of self and group identity, and the rites of passage that mark transitions from one stage to another. It shows that the presence of invented and emerging traditions indicates changing values and beliefs across the life course and encourages research in age-based research as a basic component of folklore and folklife studies.

scholarly journals A Confluence of Policy Inequality: Health Disparities in Old Age Among American Indian and Alaska Native Populations

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 37-37
Author(s):  
Sadie Giles
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Health Disparities ◽  
Life Course ◽  
American Indian ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Alaska Native ◽  
Political History ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Life Course

Abstract Racial health disparities in old age are well established, and new conceptualizations and methodologies continue to advance our understanding of health inequality across the life course. One group that is overlooked in many of these analyses, however, is the aging American Indian/Native Alaskan (AI/NA) population. While scholars have attended to the unique health inequities faced by the AI/NA population as a whole due to its discordant political history with the US government, little attention has been paid to unique patterns of disparity that might exist in old age. I propose to draw critical gerontology into the conversation in order to establish a framework through which we can uncover barriers to health, both from the political context of the AI/NA people as well as the political history of old age policy in the United States. Health disparities in old age are often described through a cumulative (dis)advantage framework that offers the benefit of appreciating that different groups enter old age with different resources and health statuses as a result of cumulative inequalities across the life course. Adding a framework of age relations, appreciating age as a system of inequality where people also gain or lose access to resources and status upon entering old age offers a path for understanding the intersection of race and old age. This paper will show how policy history for this group in particular as well as old age policy in the United States all create a unique and unequal circumstance for the aging AI/NA population.

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