Abstract 71: Sex and Genetic Predisposition Synergistically Influence Risk of Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in Middle-Aged Persons Without Risk Factors
Background and Hypothesis: Driven by aging-related physiological changes, the incidence of stroke and myocardial infarction rises rapidly in persons aged >40 years. A significant proportion of these acute vascular events (AVE) take place in persons without vascular risk factors. We tested the hypothesis that sex and genetic predisposition synergistically increase the risk of AVE in middle-aged persons without vascular risk factors. Methods: We analyzed data from the UK Biobank, a prospective longitudinal study that enrolled persons aged 40 to 69 years. Our analysis was restricted to middle-aged participants, defined as those aged 40 to 60 years. Prevalent and incident cases of stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic) and myocardial infarction were included. To quantify the genetic predisposition to sustain an AVE, we constructed a polygenic risk score using 68 independent (R 2 <0.1) genetic variants known to associate (p<5x10 -8 ) with AVE. Participants were classified as having low, intermediate or high genetic risk according to tertiles of the score. We used Cox models for association and interaction testing. Results: Of the 502,536 study participants enrolled in the UK Biobank, 303,295 (60%) did not have any vascular risk factors. During the follow-up period, there were 5,746 AVEs, including 1,954 strokes and 3,792 myocardial infarctions. The cumulative risk of AVE was 0.12% (n=352), 0.46% (n = 1,386) and 1.32% (n = 4,008) at ages 40, 50 and 60 years (test-for-trend p<0.001). The risk of AVE was 3 times greater in men than women (HR 3.30, 95%CI 3.08 - 3.53). Compared to persons with low genetic risk, those with intermediate and high genetic risk had a 22% (HR 1.22, 95%CI 1.13 - 1.32) and 52% (HR 1.52, 95%CI 1.41 - 1.65) increase in risk of AVE, respectively. There was significant synergy (interaction) between sex and genetic predisposition: compared to females with low genetic risk, males with high genetic risk had 4 times (HR 3.91, 95%CI 3.58 - 4.26) the risk of AVE (interaction analysis p<0.001). Conclusion: Genetic information constitutes a promising tool to risk stratify middle-aged persons without vascular risk factors. The synergistic effect of sex and genetic predisposition points to specific subgroups that could benefit from aggressive preventive interventions.