El Niño and the Nomads: Global Climate, Local Environment, and the Crisis of Pastoralism in Late Ottoman Kurdistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 316-356
Author(s):  
Zozan Pehlivan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Local Environment ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations

Abstract This article explores the impacts of environmental crises on pastoral nomads in Ottoman Kurdistan/Armenia in the late nineteenth-century. It demonstrates that the climatic fluctuations characterizing these environmental crises were synchronized with global climatic oscillations, specifically the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Recurrent episodes of severe drought and cold dramatically affected these groups, who were unable to withstand extreme changes in temperature and precipitation. Back-to-back drought episodes created a shortage of water, dried up pastures and damaged forage, while severe cold resulted in high rates of premature death among herd animals. These climatic events thus had devastating economic and social consequences.

scholarly journals Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjun Zhang ◽  
Feng Jiang ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Axel Timmermann
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
North Tropical Atlantic

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of year-to-year global climate variability, is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), especially during boreal spring season. Focusing on statistical lead-lag relationships, previous studies have proposed that interannual NTA SST variability can also feed back on ENSO in a predictable manner. However, these studies did not properly account for ENSO’s autocorrelation and the fact that the SST in the Atlantic and Pacific, as well as their interaction are seasonally modulated. This can lead to misinterpretations of causality and the spurious identification of Atlantic precursors for ENSO. Revisiting this issue under consideration of seasonality, time-varying ENSO frequency, and greenhouse warming, we demonstrate that the cross-correlation characteristics between NTA SST and ENSO, are consistent with a one-way Pacific to Atlantic forcing, even though the interpretation of lead-lag relationships may suggest otherwise.

scholarly journals Three Putative Types of El Niño Revealed by Spatial Variability in Impact on Australian Wheat Yield

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1566-1574 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. Potgieter ◽  
G. L. Hammer ◽  
H. Meinke ◽  
R. C. Stone ◽  
L. Goddard
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Australian Wheat ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Niño events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Niño events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Niño are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (“footprints”) found in the El Niño impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean–atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Niño differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Niño events on agricultural systems.

scholarly journals The El Niño: A Meteorological Risk Factor for Vector-borne Diseases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avi Patel ◽  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Tropical Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Climate Crisis

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been ravaging numerous coastal and inland communities with excessive flooding and drought conditions, causing immense economic loss, and the incidence of many neglected tropical diseases. Affecting over 60 million people directly, El Niño remains one of the greatest enigmas to human health, and combined with the ever-escalating global climate crisis, El Niño events are only projected to increase in magnitude in the coming years (WHO, 2016).

scholarly journals The Impact of Obliquity Change on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña Climate Episodes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Rivera
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

An alternative physical mechanism is proposed to describe the occurrence of the episodic El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Nina climatic phenomena. This is based on the earthquake-perturbed obliquity change (EPOCH) model previously discovered as a major cause of the global climate change problem. Massive quakes impart a very strong oceanic force that can move the moon which in turn pulls the earth’s axis and change the planetary obliquity. Analysis of the annual geomagnetic north-pole shift and global seismic data revealed this previously undiscovered force. Using a higher obliquity in the global climate model EdGCM and constant greenhouse gas forcing showed that the seismic-induced polar motion and associated enhanced obliquity could be the major mechanism governing the mysterious climate anomalies attributed to El Nino and La Nina cycles.

scholarly journals The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using satellite remote sensing

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangzhong Luo ◽  
Trevor F. Keenan ◽  
Joshua B. Fisher ◽  
Juan-Carlos Jiménez-Muñoz ◽  
Jing M. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
The Impact

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation exerts a large influence on global climate regimes and on the global carbon cycle. Although El Niño is known to be associated with a reduction of the global total land carbon sink, results based on prognostic models or measurements disagree over the relative contribution of photosynthesis to the reduced sink. Here, we provide an independent remote sensing-based analysis on the impact of the 2015–2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using six global satellite-based photosynthesis products and a global solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) dataset. An ensemble of satellite-based photosynthesis products showed a negative anomaly of −0.7 ± 1.2 PgC in 2015, but a slight positive anomaly of 0.05 ± 0.89 PgC in 2016, which when combined with observations of the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations suggests that the reduction of the land residual sink was likely dominated by photosynthesis in 2015 but by respiration in 2016. The six satellite-based products unanimously identified a major photosynthesis reduction of −1.1 ± 0.52 PgC from savannahs in 2015 and 2016, followed by a highly uncertain reduction of −0.22 ± 0.98 PgC from rainforests. Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere enhanced photosynthesis before and after the peak El Niño, especially in grasslands (0.33 ± 0.13 PgC). The patterns of satellite-based photosynthesis ensemble mean were corroborated by SIF, except in rainforests and South America, where the anomalies of satellite-based photosynthesis products also diverged the most. We found the inter-model variation of photosynthesis estimates was strongly related to the discrepancy between moisture forcings for models. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple photosynthesis proxies when assessing responses to climatic anomalies. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 367 (6485) ◽  
pp. 1477-1481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia G. Dee ◽  
Kim M. Cobb ◽  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
Toby R. Ault ◽  
R. Lawrence Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Explosive Volcanism ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Superposed Epoch Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Forcing

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO’s response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.

Pricing rainfall derivatives in the equatorial Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 589-608
Author(s):  
Sergio Cabrales ◽  
Jesus Solano ◽  
Carlos Valencia ◽  
Rafael Bautista
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Gamma Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Research Institute

PurposeIn the equatorial Pacific, rainfall is affected by global climate phenomena, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, current publicly available methodologies for valuing weather derivatives do not account for the influence of ENSO. The purpose of this paper is to develop a complete framework suitable for valuing rainfall derivatives in the equatorial Pacific.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, we implement a Markov chain for the occurrence of rain and a gamma model for the conditional quantities using vector generalized linear models (VGLM). The ENSO forecast probabilities reported by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) are included as independent variables using different alternatives. We then employ the Esscher transform to price rainfall derivatives.FindingsThe methodology is applied and calibrated using the historical rainfall data collected at the El Dorado airport weather station in Bogotá. All the estimated coefficients turn out to be significant. The results prove more accurate than those of Markovian gamma models based on purely statistical descriptions of the daily rainfall probabilities.Originality/valueThis procedure introduces the novelty of incorporating variables related to the climatic phenomena, which are the forecast probabilities regularly published for the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña.

Highly Variable El Niño–Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene

Science ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 339 (6115) ◽  
pp. 67-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim M. Cobb ◽  
Niko Westphal ◽  
Hussein R. Sayani ◽  
Jordan T. Watson ◽  
Emanuele Di Lorenzo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Line Islands ◽  
Insolation Forcing ◽  
Fossil Coral

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large changes in global climate patterns from year to year, yet its sensitivity to continued anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is uncertain. We analyzed fossil coral reconstructions of ENSO spanning the past 7000 years from the Northern Line Islands, located in the center of action for ENSO. The corals document highly variable ENSO activity, with no evidence for a systematic trend in ENSO variance, which is contrary to some models that exhibit a response to insolation forcing over this same period. Twentieth-century ENSO variance is significantly higher than average fossil coral ENSO variance but is not unprecedented. Our results suggest that forced changes in ENSO, whether natural or anthropogenic, may be difficult to detect against a background of large internal variability.

Does the El Niño–Southern Oscillation control the interhemispheric radiocarbon offset?

2007 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 174-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris S.M. Turney ◽  
Jonathan G. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Mean Values

AbstractSince the 1970s it has been recognised that Southern Hemisphere samples have a lower radiocarbon content than contemporaneous material in the Northern Hemisphere. This interhemispheric radiocarbon offset has traditionally been considered to be the result of a greater surface area in the southern ocean and high-latitude deepwater formation. This is despite the fact that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to play a significant role in controlling the interannual variability of atmospheric carbon dioxide by changing the flux of ‘old’ CO2 from the tropical Pacific. Here we demonstrate that over the past millennium, the Southern Hemisphere radiocarbon offset is characterised by a pervasive 80-yr cycle with a step shift in mean values coinciding with the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. The observed changes suggest an ENSO-like role in influencing the interhemispheric radiocarbon difference, most probably modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, and supports a tropical role in forcing centennial-scale global climate change.

scholarly journals Possible Increased Frequency of ENSO-Related Dry and Wet Conditions over Some Major Watersheds in a Warming Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (4) ◽  
pp. E409-E426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiaohong Sun ◽  
Chiyuan Miao ◽  
Amir AghaKouchak ◽  
Iman Mallakpour ◽  
Duoying Ji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
La Nina

Abstract Predicting the changes in teleconnection patterns and related hydroclimate extremes can provide vital information necessary to adapt to the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study uses the outputs of global climate models to assess the changes in ENSO-related dry/wet patterns and the frequency of severe dry/wet events. The results show anomalous precipitation responding asymmetrically to La Niña and El Niño, indicating the teleconnections may not simply be strengthened. A “dry to drier, wet to wetter” annual anomalous precipitation pattern was projected during La Niña phases in some regions, with drier conditions over southern North America, southern South America, and southern central Asia, and wetter conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia. These results are robust, with agreement from the 26 models and from a subset of 8 models selected for their good performance in capturing observed patterns. However, we did not observe a similar strengthening of anomalous precipitation during future El Niño phases, for which the uncertainties in the projected influences are large. Under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario, 45 river basins under El Niño conditions and 39 river basins under La Niña conditions were predicted to experience an increase in the frequency of severe dry events; similarly, 59 river basins under El Niño conditions and 61 river basins under La Niña conditions were predicted to have an increase in the frequency of severe wet events, suggesting a likely increase in the risk of floods. Our results highlight the implications of changes in ENSO patterns for natural hazards, disaster management, and engineering infrastructure.

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