scholarly journals Hurricane “Rainfall Potential” Derived from Satellite Observations Aids Overland Rainfall Prediction

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 944-959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyan Jiang ◽  
Jeffrey B. Halverson ◽  
Joanne Simpson ◽  
Edward J. Zipser
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Rainfall Index

Abstract The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission–based National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) product is used to quantify the rainfall distribution in tropical cyclones that made landfall in the United States during 1998–2004. A total of 37 tropical cyclones (TC) are examined, including 2680 three-hourly MPA precipitation observations. Rainfall distributions for overland and overocean observations are compared. It is found that the TC rainfall over ocean bears a strong relationship with the TC maximum wind, whereas the relationship for overland conditions is much weaker. The rainfall potential is defined by using the satellite-derived rain rate, the satellite-derived storm size, and the storm translation speed. This study examines the capability of the overocean rainfall potential to predict a storm’s likelihood of producing heavy rain over land. High correlations between rain potentials before landfall and the maximum storm total rain over land are found using the dataset of the 37 landfalling TCs. Correlations are higher with the average rain potential on the day prior to landfall than with averages over any other time period. A TC overland rainfall index is introduced based on the rainfall potential study. This index can be used to predict the storm peak rainfall accumulation over land. Six landfalling storms during the 2005 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season are examined to verify the capability of using this index to forecast the maximum storm total rain over land in the United States. The range of the maximum storm overland rain forecast error for these six storms is between 2.5% and 24.8%.

scholarly journals Simple Empirical Models for Estimating the Increase in the Central Pressure of Tropical Cyclones after Landfall along the Coastline of the United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (12) ◽  
pp. 1807-1826 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Vickery
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Hurricane Wind

Abstract Modeling the increase in the central pressure of tropical cyclones following landfall plays a critical role in the estimation of the hurricane wind hazard at locations removed from the coastline. This paper describes the development of simple empirical models for estimating the rate at which tropical cyclones decay after making landfall. For storms making landfall along the Gulf of Mexico Coast and the coast of the Florida Peninsula, it is shown that the rate of storm filling is proportional to the central pressure difference and translation speed at the time of landfall and is inversely proportional to the radius to maximum winds. Along the Atlantic Coast the effect of radius to maximum winds does not play as significant a role in the rate of storm decay as compared with that seen in Florida and along the Gulf Coast. The models developed here can readily be included in any hurricane simulation model designed for estimating wind speeds in the United States.

Convective Storms and the Insurance Industry: Challenges and Opportunities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsten D. Orwig
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Property Values ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
The United States ◽  
Building Code ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Insured Loss

Convective storms affect countries worldwide, with billions in losses and dozens of fatalities every year. They are now the key insured loss driver in the United States, even after considering the losses sustained by tropical cyclones in 2017. Since 2008, total insured losses from convective storms have exceeded $10 billion per year. Additionally, these losses continue to increase year over year. Key loss drivers include increased population, buildings, vehicles, and property values. However, other loss drivers relate to construction materials and practices, as well as building code adoption and enforcement. The increasing loss trends pose a number of challenges for the insurance industry and broader society. These challenges are discussed, and some recommendations are presented.

scholarly journals The world market for soybeans: price transmission into Brazil and effects from the timing of crop and trade

Nova Economia ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario A. Margarido ◽  
Frederico A. Turolla ◽  
Carlos R. F. Bueno
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Market ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The World ◽  
The Law ◽  
The One

This paper investigates the price transmission in the world market for soybeans using time series econometrics models. The theoretical model developed by Mundlack and Larson (1992) is based on the Law of the One Price, which assumes price equalization across all local markets in the long run and allows for deviations in the short run. The international market was characterized by three relevant soybean prices: Rotterdam Port, Argentina and the United States. The paper estimates the elasticity of transmission of these prices into soybean prices in Brazil. There were carried causality and cointegration tests in order to identify whether there is significant long-term relationship among these variables. There was also calculated the impulse-response function and forecast error variance decomposition to analyze the transmission of variations in the international prices over Brazilian prices. An exogeneity test was also carried out so as to check whether the variables respond to short term deviations from equilibrium values. Results validated the Law of the One Price in the long run. In line with many studies, this paper showed that Brazil and Argentina can be seen as price takers as long as the speed of their adjustment to shocks is faster than in the United States, the latter being a price maker.

scholarly journals Fungicide Rotation Programs for Managing Phytophthora Fruit Rot of Watermelon in Southeastern United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandrasekar (Shaker) S. Kousik ◽  
Pingsheng Ji ◽  
Daniel S. Egel ◽  
Lina M. Quesada-Ocampo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Phytophthora Capsici ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fruit Rot ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Before And After

About 50% of the watermelons in the United States are produced in the southeastern states, where optimal conditions for development of Phytophthora fruit rot prevail. Phytophthora fruit rot significantly limits watermelon production by causing serious yield losses before and after fruit harvest. Efficacy of fungicide rotation programs and Melcast-scheduled sprays for managing Phytophthora fruit rot was determined by conducting experiments in Phytophthora capsici-infested fields at three locations in southeastern United States (North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia). The mini seedless cultivar Wonder and seeded cultivar Mickey Lee (pollenizer) were used. Five weekly applications of fungicides were made at all locations. Significant fruit rot (53 to 91%, mean 68%) was observed in the nontreated control plots in all three years (2013 to 2015) and across locations. All fungicide rotation programs significantly reduced Phytophthora fruit rot compared with nontreated controls. Overall, the rotation of Zampro alternated with Orondis was highly effective across three locations and two years. Rotations of Actigard followed by Ranman+Ridomil Gold, Presidio, V-10208, and Orondis, or rotation of Revus alternated with Presidio were similarly effective. Use of Melcast, a melon disease-forecasting tool, may occasionally enable savings of one spray application without significantly impacting control. Although many fungicides are available for use in rotations, under very heavy rain and pathogen pressure, the fungicides alone may not offer adequate protection; therefore, an integrated approach should be used with other management options including well-drained fields.

scholarly journals Assessing the influence of an extended hurricane season on inland flooding potential in the Southeast United States

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica H. Stone ◽  
Sagy Cohen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
River Basins ◽  
The United States ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
Global Climate Warming ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20 % more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the Southeast United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. An analysis of the timing of tropical cyclones that impact these river basins found that most occur during the low discharge season, and thus rarely produce riverine flooding conditions. However, an extension of the current hurricane season of June–November, due to global climate warming, could encroach upon the high discharge seasons in these basins, increasing the susceptibility for riverine hurricane-induced flooding. This analysis shows that an extension of the hurricane season to May–December (just 2 months longer) increased the number of days that would be at risk to flooding were the average tropical cyclone to occur by 37–258 %, depending on the timing of the hurricane season in relation to the high discharge seasons on these rivers. Future research should aim to extend this analysis to all river basins in the United States that are impacted by tropical cyclones in order to provide a bigger picture of which areas are likely to experience the worst increases in flooding risk due to a probable extension of the hurricane season with expected global climate change in the near future.

US-Italian Relations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leopoldo Nuti ◽  
Daniele Fiorentino
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cold War ◽  
World War I ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
World War ◽  
Cultural Economic ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Political Alignment

Relations between Italy and the United States have gone through different stages, from the early process of nation-building during the 18th and the 19th centuries, to the close diplomatic and political alignment of the Cold War and the first two decades of the 21st century. Throughout these two and a half centuries, relations between the two states occasionally experienced some difficult moments—from the tensions connected to the mass immigration of Italians to the United States at the end of the 19th century, to the diplomatic clash at the Versailles Peace Conference at the end of World War I, culminating with the declaration of war by the Fascist government in December 1941. By and large, however, Italy and the United States have mostly enjoyed a strong relationship based on close cultural, economic, and political ties.

scholarly journals Coastal Resilience Against Storm Surge from Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 725
Author(s):  
Robert Mendelsohn ◽  
Liang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atlantic Seaboard ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Resilience

It is well known that seawalls are effective at stopping common storm surges in urban areas. This paper examines whether seawalls should be built to withstand the storm surge from a major tropical cyclone. We estimate the extra cost of building the wall tall enough to stop such surges and the extra flood benefit of this additional height. We estimate the surge probability distribution from six tidal stations spread along the Atlantic seaboard of the United States. We then measure how valuable the vulnerable buildings behind a 100 m wall must be to justify such a tall wall at each site. Combining information about the probability distribution of storm surge, the average elevation of protected buildings, and the damage rate at each building, we find that the value of protected buildings behind this 100 m wall must be in the hundreds of millions to justify the wall. We also examine the additional flood benefit and cost of protecting a km2 of land in nearby cities at each site. The density of buildings in coastal cities in the United States are generally more than an order of magnitude too low to justify seawalls this high. Seawalls are effective, but not at stopping the surge damage from major tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 2051-2070
Author(s):  
Courtney D. Buckley ◽  
Robbie E. Hood ◽  
Frank J. LaFontaine
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Inland Flooding

Abstract Inland flooding from tropical cyclones is a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries, with the majority of tropical cyclone fatalities recorded in the United States resulting from freshwater flooding. Information collected during National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) tropical cyclone field experiments suggests that surface water and flooding can be detected and therefore monitored at a greater spatial resolution by using passive microwave airborne radiometers than by using satellite sensors. The 10.7-GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) has demonstrated high-resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. In this study, an analysis of three cases is conducted utilizing satellite and airborne radiometer data. Data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during the landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. Another case studied was the landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7-GHz information. The results illustrate the AMPR’s utility in monitoring surface water that current satellite-based passive microwave radiometers are unable to monitor because of their coarser resolutions. This suggests the benefit of a radiometer with observing frequencies less than 11 GHz deployed on a manned aircraft or unmanned aircraft system to provide early detection in real time of expanding surface water or flooding conditions.

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