scholarly journals Low-Frequency Variability and Remote Forcing of Gap Winds over the East Pacific Warm Pool

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (19) ◽  
pp. 4901-4918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Antonio J. Busalacchi ◽  
Raghu Murtugudde
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Secondary Importance ◽  
Remote Forcing ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Western Caribbean ◽  
Gap Winds

Abstract The low-frequency variability of gap winds at the Isthmuses of Tehuantepec and Papagayo is investigated using a 17-yr wind stress dataset merging the remotely sensed observations of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite sensors. A decadal signal is identified in the Tehuantepec gap winds, which is shown to be related to the Atlantic tripole pattern (ATP). Using linear regression and spectral analysis, it is demonstrated that the low-frequency variability of the Tehuantepec gap winds is remotely forced by the ATP, and the Papagayo gap winds are primarily governed by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the ATP being of secondary importance. The Tehuantepec (Papagayo) time series of wind stress anomalies can be better reconstructed when the local cross-isthmus pressure difference and large-scale climate information such as the ATP (ENSO) are included, suggesting that there is important information in the large-scale flow that is not transmitted directly through the background sea level pressure gradient. The geostrophic modulation of the easterly trades in the western Caribbean also serve as a remote driver of the Papagayo gap winds, which is itself not fully independent from ENSO. Finally, it is suggested that precipitation variability in the Inter-Americas region is closely related to the same remote forcing as that of the Tehuantepec gap winds, being the ATP and associated large-scale atmospheric circulation.

scholarly journals A Chronology of El Niño Events from Primary Documentary Sources in Northern Peru*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 1948-1962 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Garcia-Herrera ◽  
D. Barriopedro ◽  
E. Hernández ◽  
H. F. Diaz ◽  
R. R. Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Northern Peru

Abstract The authors present a chronology of El Niño (EN) events based on documentary records from northern Peru. The chronology, which covers the period 1550–1900, is constructed mainly from primary sources from the city of Trujillo (Peru), the Archivo General de Indias in Seville (Spain), and the Archivo General de la Nación in Lima (Peru), supplemented by a reassessment of documentary evidence included in previously published literature. The archive in Trujillo has never been systematically evaluated for information related to the occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Abundant rainfall and river discharge correlate well with EN events in the area around Trujillo, which is very dry during most other years. Thus, rain and flooding descriptors, together with reports of failure of the local fishery, are the main indicators of EN occurrence that the authors have searched for in the documents. A total of 59 EN years are identified in this work. This chronology is compared with the two main previous documentary EN chronologies and with ENSO indicators derived from proxy data other than documentary sources. Overall, the seventeenth century appears to be the least active EN period, while the 1620s, 1720s, 1810s, and 1870s are the most active decades. The results herein reveal long-term fluctuations in warm ENSO activity that compare reasonably well with low-frequency variability deduced from other proxy data.

scholarly journals Historical drought patterns over Canada and their teleconnections with large-scale climate signals

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 3105-3124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zilefac Elvis Asong ◽  
Howard Simon Wheater ◽  
Barrie Bonsal ◽  
Saman Razavi ◽  
Sopan Kurkute
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract. Drought is a recurring extreme climate event and among the most costly natural disasters in the world. This is particularly true over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon with impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, industry, aquatic ecosystems, and health. However, nationwide drought assessments are currently lacking and impacted by limited ground-based observations. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of large-scale teleconnections. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months, 6 months from April to September, and 12 months from October to September) applied to different gridded monthly data sets for the period 1950–2013. The Mann–Kendall test, rotated empirical orthogonal function, continuous wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analyses are used, respectively, to investigate the trend, spatio-temporal patterns, periodicity, and teleconnectivity of drought events. Results indicate that southern (northern) parts of the country experienced significant trends towards drier (wetter) conditions although substantial variability exists. Two spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts were identified – the Canadian Prairies and northern central Canada. The analyses also revealed the presence of a dominant periodicity of between 8 and 32 months in the Prairie region and between 8 and 40 months in the northern central region. These cycles of low-frequency variability are found to be associated principally with the Pacific–North American (PNA) and Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) relative to other considered large-scale climate indices. This study is the first of its kind to identify dominant periodicities in drought variability over the whole of Canada in terms of when the drought events occur, their duration, and how often they occur.

Evidence of 8.2-ka event in Southeast Asia inferred from marginal marine sediments off Kallang River Basin, Singapore

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yama Dixit ◽  
Stephen Chua ◽  
Yu Ting Yan ◽  
Adam Switzer
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Marine Sediments ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Signal Propagation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Seasonal Migration ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
The North

<p>The Maritime Continent (MC) is located within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, which is known as the largest area of warm sea surface temperatures with the highest rainfall on Earth that drives the global atmospheric and hydrologic circulation. The complex climatic system of the MC is controlled by large-scale phenomena such as the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone which causes the northwest and southeast monsoon circulation in the region as well as tropical Indo-Pacific climate phenomena, the Indian Ocean Dipole in the west and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation operating to the east of the MC. In addition to interactions of these climate phenomena, their influence varies across the region due to island topography and ocean–atmosphere fluxes. Despite dedicated efforts, a comprehensive picture of the impacts of abrupt climate events such as the ‘8.2 ka event’ during the Holocene on the MC has proved elusive. Here we use sedimentology and stable isotopes of benthic foraminifera collected from the marginal marine sediments off the Kallang River Basin, Singapore to reconstruct paleoenvironmental history of the early-mid Holocene. Owing to the high sedimentation rate (~4.4 mm/yr), the timing and nature of the ‘8.2 ka event’ was examined in detail in this region making this an invaluable and unique archive to study up to sub-centennial changes. Comparison of the Kallang record with other high-resolution marine and absolutely dated terrestrial archives speleothems revealed that the timing of the onset of ‘8.2 ka event’ in the western IPWP region lags the cooling in the North Atlantic and that of Asian and Indian monsoon failure, by ~100years possibly implying a north-south signal propagation. The termination of the ‘8.2 ka event’, however may have occurred near synchronously between high and low tropical regions at ~7.96ka BP possibly linked via both atmospheric and oceanic processes.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals An Assessment of GCM Skill in Simulating Persistence across Multiple Time Scales

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (14) ◽  
pp. 3609-3623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fiona Johnson ◽  
Seth Westra ◽  
Ashish Sharma ◽  
Andrew J. Pitman
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Multiple Time Scales ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Low Frequency Variability

Abstract Climate change impact studies for water resource applications, such as the development of projections of reservoir yields or the assessment of likely frequency and amplitude of drought under a future climate, require that the year-to-year persistence in a range of hydrological variables such as catchment average rainfall be properly represented. This persistence is often attributable to low-frequency variability in the global sea surface temperature (SST) field and other large-scale climate variables through a complex sequence of teleconnections. To evaluate the capacity of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately represent this low-frequency variability, a set of wavelet-based skill measures has been developed to compare GCM performance in representing interannual variability with the observed global SST data, as well as to assess the extent to which this variability is imparted in precipitation and surface pressure anomaly fields. A validation of the derived skill measures is performed using GCM precipitation as an input in a reservoir storage context, with the accuracy of reservoir storage estimates shown to be improved by using GCM outputs that correctly represent the observed low-frequency variability. Significant differences in the performance of different GCMs is demonstrated, suggesting that judicious selection of models is required if the climate impact assessment is sensitive to low-frequency variability. The two GCMs that were found to exhibit the most appropriate representation of global low-frequency variability for individual variables assessed were the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) ECHAM4 and L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL CM4); when considering all three variables, the Max Planck Institute (MPI) ECHAM5 performed well. Importantly, models that represented interannual variability well for SST also performed well for the other two variables, while models that performed poorly for SST also had consistently low skill across the remaining variables.

scholarly journals Comments on “Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method That Preserves Low-Frequency Variability”

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (22) ◽  
pp. 7991-7997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Moberg
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Noise Variance ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
High Frequency Variability ◽  
Frequency Temperature ◽  
Correct Estimate

Abstract Christiansen and Ljungqvist have presented an extratropical NH temperature reconstruction using a method (LOC) that they claim “preserves” low-frequency variability, at the expense of exaggerated high-frequency variability. Using theoretical arguments and a pseudoproxy experiment, it is demonstrated here that the LOC method is not guaranteed to preserve variability at any frequency. Rather, LOC reconstructions will have more variance than true large-scale temperature averages at all frequencies. This variance inflation, however, can be negligible at those frequencies where the noise variance in individual proxies is small enough to be effectively cancelled when computing an average over the available proxies. Because the proxy noise variance at low frequencies cannot be directly estimated, and thus has to be regarded as unknown, it is safer to regard a reconstruction with the LOC method as providing an estimate of the upper bound of the large-scale low-frequency temperature variability rather than one with a correct estimate of this variance.

Recruitment to Northwest Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) and Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) Stocks: Influence of Stock Size and Climate

1987 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Anthony Koslow ◽  
Keith R. Thompson ◽  
William Silvert
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Reproductive Output ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Melanogrammus Aeglefinus ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
Biological Variables ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Haddock Melanogrammus Aeglefinus

Year-class success of both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stocks in the northwest Atlantic exhibits large-scale coherence and low-frequency variability with apparent periodicities of 10–20 yr. Several physical and biological variables in the region exhibit similar large-scale coherence and apparent periodicity. Multiple regression analysis indicates that year-class success in northwest Atlantic cod stocks tends to be associated with large-scale meteorological patterns and offshore winds. Recruitment to most haddock stocks from the Scotian Shelf to Georges Bank is negatively associated with abundance of 0-group mackerel, which may be due to predation over winter and/or to a combination of environmental features including sea-surface temperature, large-scale atmospheric pressure systems, and freshwater outflows. Statistical analyses often did not define a unique set of variables that best predicted fishery recruitment due to widespread intercorrelations among environmental processes and the likelihood that not all relevant processes entered directly into the analyses. There is little evidence that stock reproductive output during the study period was significantly related to year-class success.

scholarly journals Historical drought patterns over Canada and their relation to teleconnections

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zilefac Elvis Asong ◽  
Howard Simon Wheater ◽  
Barrie Bonsal ◽  
Saman Razavi ◽  
Sopan Kurkute
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Climate Event

Abstract. Drought is a recurring extreme climate event and among the most costly natural disasters in the world. This is particularly true over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon with impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, industry, aquatic ecosystems and health. However, nation-wide drought assessments are currently lacking and impacted by limited ground-based observations. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of large-scale teleconnections. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months, 6 months from April to September, and 12 months from October to September) applied to different gridded monthly data sets for the period 1950–2013. The Mann Kendall test, Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function, Continuous Wavelet Transform, and Wavelet Coherence analyses are used, respectively, to investigate the trend, spatiotemporal patterns, periodicity, and teleconnectivity of drought events. Results indicate that southern (northern) parts of the country experienced significant trends towards drier (wetter) conditions although substantial variability exists. Two spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts were identified―the Canadian Prairies and Northern-central Canada. The analyses also revealed the presence of a dominant periodicity of between 8–32 months in the Prairie region, and 8–40 months in the Northern central region. These cycles of low-frequency variability are found to be associated principally to the Pacific-North American (PNA) and Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) relative to other considered large-scale climate indices. This study is the first of its kind to identify dominant periodicities in drought variability over the whole of Canada in terms of when the drought events occur, the duration, and how often they do so.

scholarly journals Re-Examination of the Decadal Change in the Relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean SST

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seogyeong Kim ◽  
Kyung-Ja Ha ◽  
Ruiqiang Ding ◽  
Jiangping Li
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Decadal Change ◽  
Remote Forcing ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the decadal change in the relationship between two major Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperature patterns, namely the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and northern IO and the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) in the early 2000s. In 1991–1999, the former epoch, the interannual variability of EASM was associated with the IOD-like pattern in the original paper and its relationship weakened in 2000–2016. There are two possible causes for this decadal change; stronger land-sea thermal contrast as a local forcing in latter epoch, which may result in the weakening of the relationship between the IO and the EASM. In addition, the influence of El Niño-southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) could be changed depending on the frequency of ENSO. In the 2000s, the intensity of the low frequency (LF)-type ENSO (42–86 months period) events was weaker compared to the former epoch but that of quasi-biennial (QB)-type ENSO (16–36 months period) remained persistent. This could explain that the QB-type ENSO is remote forcing that modulates the change in the relationship between the tropical IO patterns and EASM in the 2000s.

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