Future Change of Western North Pacific Typhoons: Projections by a 20-km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1154-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Akio Kitoh
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Global Atmospheric Model ◽  
Meteorological Research Institute

Abstract Projected future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emission scenario were investigated using a 20-km-mesh, very-high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)–Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) atmospheric general circulation model. The present-day (1979–2003) simulation yielded reasonably realistic climatology and interannual variability for TC genesis frequency and tracks. The future (2075–99) projection indicates (i) a significant reduction (by about 23%) in both TC genesis number and frequency of occurrence primarily during the late part of the year (September–December), (ii) an eastward shift in the positions of the two prevailing northward-recurving TC tracks during the peak TC season (July–October), and (iii) a significant reduction (by 44%) in TC frequency approaching coastal regions of Southeast Asia. The changes in occurrence frequency are due in part to changes in large-scale steering flows, but they are due mainly to changes in the locations of TC genesis; fewer TCs will form in the western portion of the WNP (west of 145°E), whereas more storms will form in the southeastern quadrant of the WNP (10°–20°N, 145°–160°E). Analysis of the genesis potential index reveals that the reduced TC genesis in the western WNP is due mainly to in situ weakening of large-scale ascent and decreasing midtropospheric relative humidity, which are associated with the enhanced descent of the tropical overturning circulation. The analysis also indicates that enhanced TC genesis in the southeastern WNP is due to increased low-level cyclonic vorticity and reduced vertical wind shear. These changes appear to be critically dependent on the spatial pattern of future sea surface temperature; therefore, it is necessary to conduct ensemble projections with a range of SST spatial patterns to understand the degree and distribution of uncertainty in future projections.

scholarly journals Variability of Tropical Cyclone Frequency Over the Western North Pacific in 2018–2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomomichi Ogata ◽  
Yuya Baba
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Convection Scheme ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Potential Index

In this study, we examine the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in 2018–2020 and its relationship with planetary scale convection and circulation anomalies, which play an important role for TC genesis. To determine the sea surface temperature (SST)-forced atmospheric variability, atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble simulations are executed along with the observed SST. For AGCM experiments, we use two different convection schemes to examine uncertainty in convective parameterization and robustness of simulated atmospheric response. The observed TC activity and genesis potential demonstrated consistent features. In our AGCM ensemble simulations, the updated convection scheme improves the simulation ability of observed genesis potential as well as planetary scale convection and circulation features, e.g., in September–October–November (SON), a considerable increase in the genesis potential index over the WNP in SON 2018, WNP in SON 2019, and South China Sea (SCS) in SON 2020, which were not captured in the Emanuel scheme, have been simulated in the updated convection scheme.

scholarly journals PDO-Related Wintertime Atmospheric Anomalies over the Midlatitude North Pacific: Local versus Remote SST Forcing

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (16) ◽  
pp. 6989-7010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingfeng Tao ◽  
Xiu-Qun Yang ◽  
Jiabei Fang ◽  
Xuguang Sun
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Ridge Structure ◽  
Sst Gradient ◽  
Meridional Sst Gradient ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractObserved wintertime atmospheric anomalies over the central North Pacific associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are characterized by a cold/trough (warm/ridge) structure, that is, an anomalous equivalent barotropic low (high) over a negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. While the midlatitude atmosphere has its own strong internal variabilities, to what degree local SST anomalies can affect the midlatitude atmospheric variability remains unclear. To identify such an impact, three atmospheric general circulation model experiments each having a 63-yr-long simulation are conducted. The control run forced by observed global SST reproduces well the observed PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) structure. However, the removal of the midlatitude North Pacific SST variabilities in the first sensitivity run reduces the atmospheric response by roughly one-third. In the second sensitivity run in which large-scale North Pacific SST variabilities are mostly kept, but their frontal-scale meridional gradients are sharply smoothed, simulated PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) anomalies are also reduced by nearly one-third. Dynamical diagnoses exhibit that such a reduction is primarily due to the weakened transient eddy activities that are induced by weakened meridional SST gradient anomalies, in which the transient eddy vorticity forcing plays a crucial role. Therefore, it is suggested that midlatitude North Pacific SST anomalies make a considerable (approximately one-third) contribution to the observed PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) anomalies in which the frontal-scale meridional SST gradient (oceanic front) is a key player, although most of those atmospheric anomalies are determined by the SST variabilities outside of the midlatitude North Pacific.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3806-3820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xidong Wang ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Xin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Heat Potential

Abstract This study investigates the variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale climate variability. RI events have exhibited strikingly multidecadal variability. During the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the annual RI number is generally lower (higher) and the average location of RI occurrence tends to shift southeastward (northwestward). The multidecadal variations of RI are associated with the variations of large-scale ocean and atmosphere variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), relative humidity (RHUM), and vertical wind shear (VWS). It is shown that their variations on multidecadal time scales depend on the evolution of the PDO phase. The easterly trade wind is strengthened during the cold PDO phase at low levels, which tends to make equatorial warm water spread northward into the main RI region rsulting from meridional ocean advection associated with Ekman transport. Simultaneously, an anticyclonic wind anomaly is formed in the subtropical gyre of the WNP. This therefore may deepen the depth of the 26°C isotherm and directly increase TCHP over the main RI region. These thermodynamic effects associated with the cold PDO phase greatly support RI occurrence. The reverse is true during the warm PDO phase. The results also indicate that the VWS variability in the low wind shear zone along the monsoon trough may not be critical for the multidecadal modulation of RI events.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6727-6749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Kwon Lim ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Oreste Reale ◽  
Andrea M. Molod ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic) led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that the predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to subtropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO.

scholarly journals Magnetic perturbations seen by CHAMP and evaluated using the TIE-GCM

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 1543-1554
Author(s):  
D. T. Mozzoni ◽  
M. Mandea ◽  
J. Cain
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Initial Study ◽  
Vector Data ◽  
Magnetic Vector ◽  
Global Atmospheric Model ◽  
Magnetic Perturbations ◽  
Current Systems

Abstract. The Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) is a self-consistent, global, atmospheric model that can be used to estimate magnetic perturbations at satellite altitude. These computed perturbations can then be compared with the magnetic vector data provided by low-earth orbiting satellites. In this initial study, the quietest day of each month from 2001–2005 was selected for comparison. CHAMP magnetic vector residuals were computed for these intervals using the CHAOS model to remove core and crustal geomagnetic contributions. Under various input parameters, the TIE-GCM predictions were compared with the CHAMP residuals on an orbit by orbit basis. Initial results demonstrate a reasonable agreement between the TIE-GCM estimates and the CHAMP residuals in non-polar, dayside regions (±50° magnetic latitude) where both are able to resolve the Equatorial Electro-Jet (EEJ) and solar quiet (Sq) current systems. Although no clear component or temporal correlation was discerned, evidence showing the decrease in residual comparisons presents the possibility of using the TIE-GCM to pre-process geomagnetic data for main field modeling purposes.

scholarly journals Interannual Variations in Summer Precipitation in Southwest China: Anomalies in Moisture Transport and the Role of the Tropical Atlantic

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (14) ◽  
pp. 5993-6007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaoxia Yuan ◽  
Mengzhou Yang
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Anomalous Anticyclone

AbstractUsing a Lagrangian trajectory model, contributions of moisture from the Indian Ocean (IO), the South China Sea (SCS), the adjacent land region (LD), and the Pacific Ocean (PO) to interannual summer precipitation variations in southwestern China (SWC) are investigated. Results show that, on average, the IO, SCS, LD, and PO contribute 48.8%, 21.1%, 23.6%, and 3.7% of the total moisture release in SWC, respectively. In summers with the above-normal precipitation, moisture release from the IO and SCS increases significantly by 41.4% and 15.1%, respectively. In summers with below-normal precipitation, moisture release from the IO and SCS decreases significantly by 44.2% and 24.6%, respectively. In addition, the moisture anomalies from the four source regions together explain 86.5% of the total interannual variances of SWC summer precipitation, and the IO and SCS only can explain 75.7%. Variations in moisture transport from the IO, SCS, and LD to SWC are not independent of one another and are commonly influenced by the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific Ocean, which enhances the moisture transport from the IO and SCS by the anomalous southwesterlies over its northwestern quadrant but reduces that from the LD east of SWC by the anomalous westerlies along its northern edge. Anomalous warming in the tropical Atlantic Ocean can modify the Walker circulation, induce anomalous descending motion over the central tropical Pacific, and excite the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific as the classic Matsuno–Gill response. The observed impacts of the tropical Atlantic warming on the anomalous anticyclone and summer precipitation in SWC can be well reproduced in an atmospheric general circulation model.

scholarly journals Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres over the Tropical Western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 1015-1028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Liang ◽  
Liguang Wu ◽  
Guojun Gu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Tropical Western North Pacific

Abstract As one major source of forecasting errors in tropical cyclone intensity, rapid weakening of tropical cyclones [an intensity reduction of 20 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) or more over a 24-h period] over the tropical open ocean can result from the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres. This study aims to examine rapid weakening events occurring in monsoon gyres in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) basin during May–October 2000–14. Although less than one-third of rapid weakening events happened in the tropical WNP basin south of 25°N, more than 40% of them were associated with monsoon gyres. About 85% of rapid weakening events in monsoon gyres occurred in September and October. The rapid weakening events associated with monsoon gyres are usually observed near the center of monsoon gyres when tropical cyclone tracks make a sudden northward turn. The gyres can enlarge the outer size of tropical cyclones and tend to induce prolonged rapid weakening events with an average duration of 33.2 h. Large-scale environmental factors, including sea surface temperature changes, vertical wind shear, and midlevel environmental humidity, are not primary contributors to them, suggesting the possible effect of monsoon gyres on these rapid weakening events by modulating the tropical cyclone structure. This conclusion is conducive to improving operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the Coastal Oyashio and Its Seasonal Variation in a High-Resolution Western North Pacific Ocean Model

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 1283-1301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kei Sakamoto ◽  
Hiroyuki Tsujino ◽  
Shiro Nishikawa ◽  
Hideyuki Nakano ◽  
Tatsuo Motoi
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Okhotsk Sea ◽  
Resolution Model

Abstract The Coastal Oyashio (CO) carries the cold, fresh, and relatively light water mass called the Coastal Oyashio Water (COW) westward along the southeastern coast of Hokkaido in winter and spring. To investigate dynamics of the CO and its seasonal variation, model experiments are executed using a western North Pacific general circulation model with horizontal resolutions of approximately 2 and 6 km. The 2-km resolution model reproduces the properties of COW with temperature of 0°–2°C and salinity of 32.2–32.6 and reproduces its distribution. COW is less dense than offshore water by 0.2 kg m−3, and it forms a surface-to-bottom density front with a width of 10 km near the shelf break. The CO appears as a baroclinic jet current along the front with a maximum velocity of approximately 40 cm s−1. The velocity and density structures and the front location relative to bathymetry indicate that the CO can be understood in terms of a simplified dynamical model developed for the shelfbreak front in the Middle Atlantic Bight. In contrast to the 2-km resolution model, the 6-km model cannot realistically reproduce the COW distribution. This is because only the 2-km model can represent the sharp density structure of the shelfbreak front and the accompanying CO. The CO exists during the limited period from January to April. This is directly connected with seasonal variation of the COW inflow from the Okhotsk Sea to the North Pacific Ocean through the Nemuro and Kunashiri Straits, indicating that the seasonal variation of the CO is ultimately controlled by the variation of the circulation in the Okhotsk Sea induced by the monsoon.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the Simulated Distributions of Water Masses, CFCs, and Bomb 14C to Parameterizations of Mesoscale Tracer Transports in a Model of the North Pacific

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongfu Xu ◽  
Shigeaki Aoki ◽  
Koh Harada
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Water Masses ◽  
Intermediate Water ◽  
North Pacific Intermediate Water ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract A basinwide ocean general circulation model of the North Pacific Ocean is used to study the sensitivity of the simulated distributions of water masses, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and bomb carbon-14 isotope (14C) to parameterizations of mesoscale tracer transports. Five simulations are conducted, including a run with the traditional horizontal mixing scheme and four runs with the isopycnal transport parameterization of Gent and McWilliams (GM). The four GM runs use different values of isopycnal and skew diffusivities. Simulated results show that the GM mixing scheme can help to form North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW). Greater isopycnal diffusivity enhances formation of NPIW. Although greater skew diffusivity can also generate NPIW, it makes the subsurface too fresh. Results from simulations of CFC uptake show that greater isopycnal diffusivity generates the best results relative to observations in the western North Pacific. The model generally underestimates the inventories of CFCs in the western North Pacific. The results from simulations of bomb 14C reproduce some observed features. Greater isopycnal diffusivity generates a longitudinal gradient of the inventory of bomb 14C from west to east, whereas greater skew diffusivity makes it reversed. It is considered that the ratio of isopycnal diffusivity to skew diffusivity is important. An increase in isopycnal diffusivity increases storage of passive tracers in the subtropical gyre.

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