scholarly journals The Synoptic Decomposition of Cool-Season Rainfall in the Southeastern Australian Cropping Region

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1156-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Pook ◽  
Peter C. McIntosh ◽  
Gary A. Meyers
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Total Contribution ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Frontal Systems ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Daily rainfall during the April–October growing season in a major cropping region of southeastern Australia has been related to particular types of synoptic weather systems over a period of 33 yr. The analysis reveals that cutoff lows were responsible for at least 50% of all growing-season rainfall and accounted for 80% of daily rainfall events exceeding 25 mm per station. The proportion of rainfall contributed by cutoff lows varies throughout the growing season. It is highest in austral autumn and spring (55% and 57%, respectively) and falls to a minimum in July (42%). By way of contrast, the total contribution of all types of frontal systems to growing-season rainfall is about 32%, although the monthly value reaches a maximum of 41% in July when mean cutoff rainfall reaches a minimum. Rainfall associated with fronts is strongly concentrated in the lower range of daily falls (less than 10 mm per station). Frontal rainfall is found to be more consistent from year to year than is cutoff rainfall. The number of cutoff lows per season is highly variable, and there is a significant correlation between the number of cutoff days and atmospheric blocking in the region south of Australia in each month of the growing season. The mean amount of rainfall per cutoff day is also variable and has declined by approximately 0.8 mm over the analysis period. An understanding of the mechanisms controlling year-to-year variability of cutoff rainfall is therefore an important step in improving seasonal forecasts for agriculture in southeastern Australia.

The Synoptic Climatology of Cool-Season Rainfall in the Central Wheatbelt of Western Australia

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Pook ◽  
James S. Risbey ◽  
Peter C. McIntosh
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Synoptic Climatology ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Proportional Contribution ◽  
Cutoff Low ◽  
Highly Correlated

Abstract Synoptic weather systems form an important part of the physical link between remote large-scale climate drivers and regional rainfall. A synoptic climatology of daily rainfall events is developed for the Central Wheatbelt of southwestern Australia over the April–October growing season for the years 1965–2009. The climatology reveals that frontal systems contribute approximately one-half of the rainfall in the growing season while cutoff lows contribute about a third. The ratio of frontal rainfall to cutoff rainfall varies throughout the growing season. Cutoff lows contribute over 40% of rainfall in the austral autumn and spring, but this falls to about 20% in August when frontal rainfall climbs to more than 60%. The number of cutoff lows varies markedly from one growing season to another, but does not exhibit a significant long-term trend. The mean rainfall per cutoff system is also highly variable, but has gradually declined over the analysis period, particularly in the past decade. The decline in rainfall per frontal system is less significant. Cutoff low rainfall has contributed more strongly in percentage terms to the recent decline in rainfall in the Central Wheatbelt than the frontal component and accounts for more than half of the overall trend. Atmospheric blocking is highly correlated with rainfall in the region where cutoff low rainfall makes its highest proportional contribution. Hence, the decline in rain from cutoff low systems is likely to have been associated with changes in blocking and the factors controlling blocking in the region.

scholarly journals A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Simulate Daily Rainfall and Extremes in Ontario, Canada: Potential for Climate Change Projections

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 845-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad Shouquan Cheng ◽  
Guilong Li ◽  
Qian Li ◽  
Heather Auld
Keyword(s):  
Model Development ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Rainfall Simulation ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Logit Regression ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Weather Typing ◽  
Synoptic Weather Typing ◽  
Cumulative Logit

Abstract An automated synoptic weather typing and stepwise cumulative logit/nonlinear regression analyses were employed to simulate the occurrence and quantity of daily rainfall events. The synoptic weather typing was developed using principal component analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure, and discriminant function analysis to identify the weather types most likely to be associated with daily rainfall events for the four selected river basins in Ontario. Within-weather-type daily rainfall simulation models comprise a two-step process: (i) cumulative logit regression to predict the occurrence of daily rainfall events, and (ii) using probability of the logit regression, a nonlinear regression procedure to simulate daily rainfall quantities. The rainfall simulation models were validated using an independent dataset, and the results showed that the models were successful at replicating the occurrence and quantity of daily rainfall events. For example, the relative operating characteristics score is greater than 0.97 for rainfall events with daily rainfall ≥10 or ≥25 mm, for both model development and validation. For evaluation of daily rainfall quantity simulation models, four correctness classifications of excellent, good, fair, and poor were defined, based on the difference between daily rainfall observations and model simulations. Across four selected river basins, the percentage of excellent and good simulations for model development ranged from 62% to 84% (of 20 individuals, 16 cases ≥ 70%, 7 cases ≥ 80%); the corresponding percentage for model validation ranged from 50% to 76% (of 20 individuals, 15 cases ≥ 60%, 6 cases ≥ 70%).

scholarly journals A Synoptic Weather-Typing Approach to Project Future Daily Rainfall and Extremes at Local Scale in Ontario, Canada

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (14) ◽  
pp. 3667-3685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad Shouquan Cheng ◽  
Guilong Li ◽  
Qian Li ◽  
Heather Auld
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Rainfall Simulation ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Weather Typing ◽  
Synoptic Weather Typing

Abstract This paper attempts to project possible changes in the frequency of daily rainfall events late in this century for four selected river basins (i.e., Grand, Humber, Rideau, and Upper Thames) in Ontario, Canada. To achieve this goal, automated synoptic weather typing as well as cumulative logit and nonlinear regression methods was employed to develop within-weather-type daily rainfall simulation models. In addition, regression-based downscaling was applied to downscale four general circulation model (GCM) simulations to three meteorological stations (i.e., London, Ottawa, and Toronto) within the river basins for all meteorological variables (except rainfall) used in the study. Using downscaled GCM hourly climate data, discriminant function analysis was employed to allocate each future day for two windows of time (2046–65, 2081–2100) into one of the weather types. Future daily rainfall and its extremes were projected by applying within-weather-type rainfall simulation models together with downscaled future GCM climate data. A verification process of model results has been built into the whole exercise (i.e., statistical downscaling, synoptic weather typing, and daily rainfall simulation modeling) to ascertain whether the methods are stable for projection of changes in frequency of future daily rainfall events. Two independent approaches were used to project changes in frequency of daily rainfall events: method I—comparing future and historical frequencies of rainfall-related weather types, and method II—applying daily rainfall simulation models with downscaled future climate information. The increases of future daily rainfall event frequencies and seasonal rainfall totals (April–November) projected by method II are usually greater than those derived by method I. The increase in frequency of future daily heavy rainfall events greater than or equal to 25 mm, derived from both methods, is likely to be greater than that of future daily rainfall events greater than or equal to 0.2 mm: 35%–50% versus 10%–25% over the period 2081–2100 derived from method II. In addition, the return values of annual maximum 3-day accumulated rainfall totals are projected to increase by 20%–50%, 30%–55%, and 25%–60% for the periods 2001–50, 2026–75, and 2051–2100, respectively. Inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties of future rainfall projections were quantitatively assessed. The intermodel uncertainties are similar to the interscenario uncertainties, for both method I and method II. However, the uncertainties are generally much smaller than the projection of percentage increases in the frequency of future seasonal rain days and future seasonal rainfall totals. The overall mean projected percentage increases are about 2.6 times greater than overall mean intermodel and interscenario uncertainties from method I; the corresponding projected increases from method II are 2.2–3.7 times greater than overall mean uncertainties.

The Influence of Geographical Factors on Extreme Rainfalls in Lampung Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
M Welly
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Location ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Ungauged Basin ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
Geographical Factors

Many people in Indonesia calculate design rainfall before calculating the design flooddischarge. The design rainfall with a certain return period will eventually be convertedinto a design flood discharge by combining it with the characteristics of the watershed.However, the lack of a network of rainfall recording stations makes many areas that arenot hydrologically measured (ungauged basin), so it is quite difficult to know thecharacteristics of rain in the area concerned. This study aims to analyze thecharacteristics of design rainfall in Lampung Province. The focus of the analysis is toinvestigate whether geographical factors influence the design rainfall that occurs in theparticular area. The data used in this study is daily rainfall data from 15 rainfallrecording stations spread in Lampung Province. The method of frequency analysis usedin this study is the Gumbel method. The research shows that the geographical location ofan area does not have significant effect on extreme rainfall events. The effect of risingearth temperatures due to natural exploitation by humans tends to be stronger as a causeof extreme events such as extreme rainfall.Keywords: Influence, geographical, factors, extreme, rainfall.

scholarly journals Mechanisms Associated with Large Daily Rainfall Events in Northeast Brazil

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 376-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brant Liebmann ◽  
George N. Kiladis ◽  
Dave Allured ◽  
Carolina S. Vera ◽  
Charles Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Northeast Brazil ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Independent Events ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Wave Trains ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms

Abstract The mechanisms resulting in large daily rainfall events in Northeast Brazil are analyzed using data filtering to exclude periods longer than 30 days. Composites of circulation fields that include all independent events do not reveal any obvious forcing mechanisms as multiple patterns contribute to Northeast Brazil precipitation variability. To isolate coherent patterns, subsets of events are selected based on anomalies that precede the Northeast Brazil precipitation events at different locations. The results indicate that at 10°S, 40°W, the area of lowest annual rainfall in Brazil, precipitation occurs mainly in association with trailing midlatitude synoptic wave trains originating in either hemisphere. Closer to the equator at 5°S, 37.5°W, an additional convection precursor is found to the west, with a spatial structure consistent with that of a Kelvin wave. Although these two sites are located within only several hundred kilometers of each other and the midlatitude patterns that induce precipitation appear to be quite similar, the dates on which large precipitation anomalies occur at each location are almost entirely independent, pointing to separate forcing mechanisms.

Seasonal and temperature effects on mycorrhizal activity and dependence of cool- and warm-season tallgrass prairie grasses

1992 ◽  
Vol 70 (8) ◽  
pp. 1596-1602 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. P. Bentivenga ◽  
B. A. D. Hetrick
Keyword(s):  
Tallgrass Prairie ◽  
Mycorrhizal Fungi ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Cool Temperature ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Fungal Activity ◽  
Prairie Grasses ◽  
Vesicular Arbuscular ◽  
Warm Season Grasses

Previous research on North American tallgrass prairie grasses has shown that warm-season grasses rely heavily on vesicular–arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis, while cool-season grasses are less dependent on the symbiosis (i.e., receive less benefit). This led to the hypothesis that cool-season grasses are less dependent on the symbiosis, because the growth of these plants occurs when mycorrhizal fungi are inactive. Field studies were performed to assess the effect of phenology of cool- and warm-season grasses on mycorrhizal fungal activity and fungal species composition. Mycorrhizal fungal activity in field samples was assessed using the vital stain nitro blue tetrazolium in addition to traditional staining techniques. Mycorrhizal activity was greater in cool-season grasses than in warm-season grasses early (April and May) and late (December) in the growing season, while mycorrhizal activity in roots of the warm-season grasses was greater (compared with cool-season grasses) in midseason (July and August). Active mycorrhizal colonization was relatively high in both groups of grasses late in the growing season, suggesting that mycorrhizal fungi may proliferate internally or may be parasitic at this time. Total Glomales sporulation was generally greater in the rhizosphere of cool-season grasses in June and in the rhizosphere of the warm-season grasses in October. A growth chamber experiment was conducted to examine the effect of temperature on mycorrhizal dependence of cool- and warm-season grasses. For both groups of grasses, mycorrhizal dependence was greatest at the temperature that favored growth of the host. The results suggest that mycorrhizal fungi are active in roots when cool-season grasses are growing and that cool-season grasses may receive benefit from the symbiosis under relatively cool temperature regimes. Key words: cool-season grasses, tallgrass prairie, vesicular–arbuscular mycorrhizae, warm-season grasses.

scholarly journals Assessment of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Products from GSMaP in Monitoring Rainfall Variations over Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 202
Author(s):  
Wan-Ru Huang ◽  
Pin-Yi Liu ◽  
Jie Hsu ◽  
Xiuzhen Li ◽  
Liping Deng
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Estimation ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
Daily Scale ◽  
Rainfall Variations ◽  
Southwestern Taiwan

This study assessed four near-real-time satellite precipitation products (NRT SPPs) of Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP)—NRT v6 (hereafter NRT6), NRT v7 (hereafter NRT7), Gauge-NRT v6 (hereafter GNRT6), and Gauge-NRT v7 (hereafter GNRT7)— in representing the daily and monthly rainfall variations over Taiwan, an island with complex terrain. The GNRT products are the gauge-adjusted version of NRT products. Evaluations for warm (May–October) and cold months (November–April) were conducted from May 2017 to April 2020. By using observations from more than 400 surface gauges in Taiwan as a reference, our evaluations showed that GNRT products had a greater error than NRT products in underestimating the monthly mean rainfall, especially during the warm months. Among SPPs, NRT7 performed best in quantitative monthly mean rainfall estimation; however, when examining the daily scale, GNRT6 and GNRT7 were superior, particularly for monitoring stronger (i.e., more intense) rainfall events during warm and cold months, respectively. Spatially, the major improvement from NRT6 to GNRT6 (from NRT7 to GNRT7) in monitoring stronger rainfall events over southwestern Taiwan was revealed during warm (cold) months. From NRT6 to NRT7, the improvement in daily rainfall estimation primarily occurred over southwestern and northwestern Taiwan during the warm and cold months, respectively. Possible explanations for the differences between the ability of SPPs are attributed to the algorithms used in SPPs. These findings highlight that different NRT SPPs of GSMaP should be used for studying or monitoring the rainfall variations over Taiwan for different purposes (e.g., warning of floods in different seasons, studying monthly or daily precipitation features in different seasons, etc.).

Diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanil Park ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Joowan Kim ◽  
Eun-Chul Chang ◽  
Jung-Hoon Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

AbstractThis study identifies diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events (HREs) in South Korea. The HREs not directly connected to tropical cyclones (TCs) (81.1%) are typically associated with a midlatitude cyclone from eastern China, the expanded North Pacific high and strong southwesterly moisture transport in between. They are frequent both in the first (early summer) and second rainy periods (late summer) with impacts on the south coast and west of the mountainous region. In contrast, the HREs resulting from TCs (18.9%) are caused by the synergetic interaction between the TC and meandering midlatitude flow, especially in the second rainy period. The strong south-southeasterly moisture transport makes the southern and eastern coastal regions prone to the TC-driven HREs. By applying a self-organizing map algorithm to the non-TC HREs, their surface weather patterns are further classified into six clusters. Clusters 1 and 3 exhibit frontal boundary between the low and high with differing relative strengths. Clusters 2 and 5 feature an extratropical cyclone migrating from eastern China under different background sea-level pressure patterns. Cluster 4 is characterized by the expanded North Pacific high with no organized negative sea-level pressure anomaly, and cluster 6 displays a development of a moisture pathway between the continental and oceanic highs. Each cluster exhibits a distinct spatio-temporal occurrence distribution. The result provides useful guidance for predicting the HREs by depicting important factors to be differently considered depending on their synoptic categorization.

scholarly journals Spatial structures and directionalities in Monsoonal precipitation over South Asia

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 371-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Malik ◽  
N. Marwan ◽  
J. Kurths
Keyword(s):  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Spatial Structures ◽  
Break Phase ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Monsoonal Precipitation ◽  
Rain Events

Abstract. Precipitation during the monsoon season over the Indian subcontinent occurs in form of enormously complex spatiotemporal patterns due to the underlying dynamics of atmospheric circulation and varying topography. Employing methods from nonlinear time series analysis, we study spatial structures of the rainfall field during the summer monsoon and identify principle regions where the dynamics of monsoonal rainfall is more coherent or homogenous. Moreover, we estimate the time delay patterns of rain events. Here we present an analysis of two separate high resolution gridded data sets of daily rainfall covering the Indian subcontinent. Using the method of event synchronization (ES), we estimate regions where heavy rain events during monsoon happen in some lag synchronised form. Further using the delay behaviour of rainfall events, we estimate the directionalities related to the progress of such type of rainfall events. The Active (break) phase of a monsoon is characterised by an increase(decrease) of rainfall over certain regions of the Indian subcontinent. We show that our method is able to identify regions of such coherent rainfall activity.

scholarly journals Changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, Southern Italy, in the 20th century

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 3579-3619
Author(s):  
S. L. Gariano ◽  
O. Petrucci ◽  
F. Guzzetti
Keyword(s):  
Southern Italy ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Entire Observation Period ◽  
Geographical Variations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Observation Period

Abstract. We exploit a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides in the 90 year period 1921–2010 to study temporal and geographical variations in the occurrence of landslides in Calabria, Southern Italy. We use daily rainfall records obtained by a network of 318 rain gauges to reconstruct 448 493 rainfall events. Combining the rainfall and the landslide information, we obtain a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides (REL) in Calabria from 1921 to 2010, where a REL is the occurrence of one or more landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event. We find that the geographical and the temporal distributions of the rainfall-induced landslides have changed in the observation period. The average and the maximum values of the cumulated event rainfall that have resulted in landslides in the recent-most 30 year period 1981–2010 are lower than the values necessary to trigger landslides in previous periods, whereas the duration of the rainfall events that triggered landslides has remained the same. This can be considered evidence of variations in rainfall conditions, but also an increase in the vulnerability of the territory. We further find that the yearly distribution of rainfall-induced landslides has changed in the observation period, analysing the variations in the number of rainfall events with landslides occurred in each month in three 30 year periods. To investigate variations in the impact of REL on the population, we compared the number of REL in each of the 409 municipalities in Calabria, with the size of the population in the municipalities, measured by national Censuses conducted in 1951, 1981, and 2011. For the purpose, we adopted two strategies. The first strategy considered impact as IREL = #REL/P and the second strategy measured impact as RREL = #REL × P, where #REL is the total number of REL in a period, and P is the size of the population in the same period and geographical area. Considering the entire observation period, IREL and RREL have both increased in Calabria. However, considering the changes between the recent period 1981–2010 and the previous period 1951–1980, results are more variegated with a number of municipalities where IREL and RREL have increased, or decreased. Municipalities where IREL has increased are mainly in the mountains, and municipalities where RREL has increased are mainly along the coasts.

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