Diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanil Park ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Joowan Kim ◽  
Eun-Chul Chang ◽  
Jung-Hoon Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

AbstractThis study identifies diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events (HREs) in South Korea. The HREs not directly connected to tropical cyclones (TCs) (81.1%) are typically associated with a midlatitude cyclone from eastern China, the expanded North Pacific high and strong southwesterly moisture transport in between. They are frequent both in the first (early summer) and second rainy periods (late summer) with impacts on the south coast and west of the mountainous region. In contrast, the HREs resulting from TCs (18.9%) are caused by the synergetic interaction between the TC and meandering midlatitude flow, especially in the second rainy period. The strong south-southeasterly moisture transport makes the southern and eastern coastal regions prone to the TC-driven HREs. By applying a self-organizing map algorithm to the non-TC HREs, their surface weather patterns are further classified into six clusters. Clusters 1 and 3 exhibit frontal boundary between the low and high with differing relative strengths. Clusters 2 and 5 feature an extratropical cyclone migrating from eastern China under different background sea-level pressure patterns. Cluster 4 is characterized by the expanded North Pacific high with no organized negative sea-level pressure anomaly, and cluster 6 displays a development of a moisture pathway between the continental and oceanic highs. Each cluster exhibits a distinct spatio-temporal occurrence distribution. The result provides useful guidance for predicting the HREs by depicting important factors to be differently considered depending on their synoptic categorization.

scholarly journals A Climatology of Heavy Rain and Major Flood Events in Victoria 1876-2019 and the Effect of the 1976 Climate Shift

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Extensive Search ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

An extensive search has been carried out to find all major flood and very heavy rainfall events in Victoria since 1876 when Southern Oscillation (SOI) data became available. The synoptic weather patterns were analysed and of the 319 events studied,121 events were found to be East Coast Lows (ECLs) and 82 were other types of low-pressure systems. Tropical influences also played a large role with 105 events being associated with tropical air advecting down to Victoria into weather systems. Examples are presented of all the major synoptic patterns identified. The SOI was found to be an important climate driver with positive SOIs being associated with many events over the 144 years studied. The 1976 Climate Shift and its influence on significant Victorian rainfall events is studied and negative SOI monthly values were shown to dominate following the Shift.However,one of the most active periods in 144 years of Victorian heavy rain occurred after the shift with a sustained period of positive SOI events from 2007 to 2014. Therefore, it is critical for forecasting future Victorian heavy rainfall is to understand if sequences of these positive SOI events continue like those preceding the Shift. Possible relationships between the Shift and Global Temperature rises are also explored. Upper wind data available from some of the heaviest rainfall events showed the presence of anticyclonic turning of the winds between 850hPa and 500hPa levels which has been found to be linked with extreme rainfall around the Globe. 

Decadal features of heavy rainfall events in eastern China

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huopo Chen ◽  
Jianqi Sun ◽  
Ke Fan
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

scholarly journals Anomalous Weather Patterns in Relation to Heavy Precipitation Events in Japan during the Baiu Season

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 688-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Shinji Kadokura ◽  
Yoshikatsu Yoshida ◽  
Daisuke Nohara ◽  
Yasushi Toyoda
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Anomalous weather patterns (WPs) in relation to heavy precipitation events during the baiu season in Japan are investigated using a nonlinear classification technique known as the self-organizing map (SOM). The analysis is performed on daily time scales using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-55) to determine the role of circulation and atmospheric moisture on extreme events and to investigate interannual and interdecadal variations for possible linkages with global-scale climate variability. SOM is simultaneously employed on four atmospheric variables over East Asia that are related to baiu front variability, whereby anomalous WPs that dominated during the 1958–2011 period are obtained. Our analysis extracts seven typical WPs, which are linked to frequent occurrences of heavy precipitation events. Each WP is associated with regional variations in the probability of extreme precipitation events. On interannual time scales, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the frequency of the WPs in relation to the heavy rainfall events. The warm phase of ENSO results in an increased frequency of a WP that provides a southwesterly intrusion of high equivalent potential temperature at low levels, while the cold phase provides southeastern intrusion. In addition, the results of this analysis suggest that interdecadal variability of frequency for heavy rainfall events corresponds to changes in frequency distributions of WPs and are not due to one particular WP.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Contributors to Heavy Rainfall Events in the Arkansas-Red River Basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor A. McCorkle ◽  
Skylar S. Williams ◽  
Timothy A. Pfeiffer ◽  
Jeffrey B. Basara
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Red River ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Red River Basin ◽  
Thermodynamic Variables ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

This study analyzed the top 1% 24-hour rainfall events from 1994 to 2013 at eight climatological sites that represent the east to west precipitation gradient across the Arkansas-Red River Basin in North America. A total of 131 cases were identified and subsequently classified on the synoptic-scale, mesoscale, and local-scale to compile a climatological analysis of these extreme, heavy rainfall events based on atmospheric forcings. For each location, the prominent midtropospheric pattern, mesoscale feature, and predetermined thermodynamic variables were used to classify each 1% rainfall event. Individual events were then compared with other cases throughout the basin. The most profound results were that the magnitudes of the thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy and precipitable water values were poor predictors of the amount of rainfall produced in these extreme events. Further, the mesoscale forcings had more of an impact during the warm season and for the westernmost locations, whereas synoptic forcings were extremely prevalent during the cold season at the easternmost locations in the basin. The implications of this research are aimed at improving the forecasting of heavy precipitation at individual weather forecasts offices within the basin through the identified patterns at various scales.

scholarly journals Extreme Floods in the Eastern Part of Europe: Large-Scale Drivers and Associated Impacts

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Monica Ionita ◽  
Viorica Nagavciuc
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

The role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in producing heavy rainfall events and floods in the eastern part of Europe, with a special focus on the Siret and Prut catchment areas (Romania), is analyzed in this study. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the most extreme flood events (e.g., July 2008, June–July 2010, and June 2020) is given. Analysis of the largest flood events indicates that the flood peaks have been preceded up to 6 days in advance by intrusions of high Potential Vorticity (PV) anomalies toward the southeastern part of Europe, persistent cut-off lows over the analyzed region, and increased water vapor transport over the catchment areas of Siret and Prut Rivers. The vertically integrated water vapor transport prior to the flood peak exceeds 300 kg m−1 s−1, leading to heavy rainfall events. We also show that the implementation of the Flood Management Plan in Romania had positive results during the 2020 flood event compared with the other flood events, when the authorities took several precaution measurements that mitigated in a better way the socio-economic impact and risks of the flood event. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport as drivers of extreme flooding in the eastern part of Europe and could lead to a better flood forecast and flood risk management.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Episodes from SoWMEX/TiMREX

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Wen-Chau Lee
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Mesoscale Analysis ◽  
Mesoscale Structure ◽  
Profound Influence ◽  
Moist Condition ◽  
Virtual Temperature ◽  
Convection Initiation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Abstract The authors analyze the mesoscale structure accompanying two multiday periods of heavy rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon Experiment and the Terrain-Induced Mesoscale Rainfall Experiment conducted over and near Taiwan during May and June 2008. Each period is about 5–6 days long with episodic heavy rainfall events within. These events are shown to correspond primarily to periods when well-defined frontal boundaries are established near the coast. The boundaries are typically 1 km deep or less and feature contrasts of virtual temperature of only 2°–3°C. Yet, owing to the extremely moist condition of the upstream conditionally unstable air, these boundaries appear to exert a profound influence on convection initiation or intensification near the coast. Furthermore, the boundaries, once established, are long lived, possibly reinforced through cool downdrafts and prolonged by the absence of diurnal heating over land in generally cloudy conditions. These boundaries are linked phenomenologically with coastal fronts that occur at higher latitudes.

scholarly journals An Improved Weighting Method of Time-Lag-Ensemble Averaging for Hourly Precipitation Forecasts and Its Application in a Typhoon-Induced Heavy Rainfall Event

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 875
Author(s):  
Li Zhou ◽  
Lin Xu ◽  
Mingcai Lan ◽  
Jingjing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Ensemble Averaging ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Heavy rainfall events often cause great societal and economic impacts. The prediction ability of traditional extrapolation techniques decreases rapidly with the increase in the lead time. Moreover, deficiencies of high-resolution numerical models and high-frequency data assimilation will increase the prediction uncertainty. To address these shortcomings, based on the hourly precipitation prediction of Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast (GRAPES-CHAF) and Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR), we present an improved weighting method of time-lag-ensemble averaging for hourly precipitation forecast which gives more weight to heavy rainfall and can quickly select the optimal ensemble members for forecasting. In addition, by using the cross-magnitude weight (CMW) method, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC), the verification results of hourly precipitation forecast for next six hours in Hunan Province during the 2019 typhoon Bailu case and heavy rainfall events from April to September in 2020 show that the revised forecast method can more accurately capture the characteristics of the hourly short-range precipitation forecast and improve the forecast accuracy and the probability of detection of heavy rainfall.

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