scholarly journals The Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1362-1375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo ◽  
Muthuvel Chelliah
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
North American ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Total Soil ◽  
North American Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract A 32-km high-resolution modified Palmer drought severity index (MPDSI) based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (RR) from 1979 to 2004 is presented. The assumptions of Palmer, such as the water balance equation, the difference between observed precipitation and the climatologically expected precipitation over the maximum conditions, and the changes of the index as a function of the current index, are preserved. Many deficiencies of the original PDSI are eliminated by taking fields directly from the RR or by making better estimates. For example, fields such as potential evapotranspiration, evaporation, runoff, total soil moisture, and soil moisture change in a given month are obtained directly from the RR. The potential recharge is defined as the total soil moisture needed to reach the maximum total soil moisture at each grid point for each calendar month. The potential precipitation is defined as the maximum precipitation at each grid point for a given calendar month. The underground volumetric soil moisture includes both frozen and liquid form. Therefore, the contribution of snowmelt is taken into account inexplicitly. The questionable assumptions of two-layer soil model and the available soil moisture capacity are no longer needed. Overall, the MPDSI, when averaged over a large area and long time, often resembles the traditional PDSI based on the Palmer formula and the climate-division data. The MPDSI obeys Gaussian distribution, and so it can also be used to assess the potential for floods. Together with a consistent suite of soil moisture, surface energy, and atmospheric terms from the RR, the MPDSI can be used to monitor and diagnose drought and floods.

North American Droughts in ERA-40 Global and NCEP North American Regional Reanalyses: A Palmer Drought Severity Index Perspective

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2102-2123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas ◽  
Sumant Nigam ◽  
Antonio J. Busalacchi
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Southern Half ◽  
Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) monitors meteorological and surface hydrological parameters to represent the severity of drought conditions. PDSI datasets are developed for the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) to facilitate North American drought research with these datasets. The drought index calculation, in particular, allows diagnostic assessment of the relative contributions of various surface water balance terms in generation of drought conditions by selectively holding these terms to their climatological value in PDSI computations. The length of the diagnosed PDSI permits analysis of subdecadal time-scale variability, such as ENSO, whose influence on North American drought evolution is investigated. ENSO’s considerable drought impact is potentially predictable, especially in the southern half of the United States.

scholarly journals Drought Analysis in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Short-Scalar Palmer Drought Severity Index

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Zhu ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Xieyao Ma ◽  
Liliang Ren ◽  
Vijay Singh
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
The Yellow River Basin ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Focusing on the shortages of moisture estimation and time scale in the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), this study proposed a new Palmer variant by introducing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in hydrologic accounting module, and modifying the standardization process to make the index capable for monitoring droughts at short time scales. The performance of the newly generated index was evaluated over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) during 1961–2012. For time scale verification, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 3-month time scale were employed. Results show that the new Palmer variant is highly correlated with SPI and SPEI, combined with a more stable behavior in drought frequency than original scPDSI. For drought trend detection, this new index is more inclined to reflect comprehensive moisture conditions and reveals a different spatial pattern from SPI and SPEI in winter. Besides, two remote sensing products of soil moisture and vegetation were also employed for comparison. Given their general consistent behaviors in monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of the 2000 drought, it is suggested that the new Palmer variant is a good indicator for monitoring soil moisture variation and the dynamics of vegetation growth.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Performance of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) In Various Vegetation Regions of the Ethiopian Highlands

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 14-31
Author(s):  
Polina Lemenkova
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Topographic Effects ◽  
Vegetation Monitoring ◽  
Ethiopian Highlands ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract This paper focuses on the environment of Ethiopia, a country highly sensitive to droughts severely affecting vegetation. Vegetation monitoring of Ethiopian Highlands requires visualization of environmental parameters to assess droughts negatively influencing agricultural sustainable management of crops. Therefore, this study presented mapping of several climate and environmental variables including Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The data were visualized and interpreted alongside the topographic data to evaluate the environmental conditions for vegetation. The datasets included WorldClim and GEBCO and Digital Chart of the World (DCW). Research has threefold objectives: i) environmental mapping; ii) technical cartographic scripting; iii) data processing. Following variables were visualized on seven new maps: 1) topography; 2) soil moisture; 3) T °C minimum; 4) T °C maximum; 5) Wind speed; 6) Precipitation; 7) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). New high-resolution thematic environmental maps are presented and the utility of GMT for mapping multi-source datasets is described. With varying degrees of soil moisture (mean value of 15.0), min T°C (−1.8°C to 24°C), max T°C (14.4°C to 40.2°C) and wind speed (0.1 to 6.1 m/s), the maps demonstrate the variability of the PDSI fields over the country area (from −11.7 to 2.3) induced by the complex sum of these variables and intensified by the topographic effects notable over the Ethiopian Highlands which can be used for vegetation analysis. The paper presents seven new maps and contributes to the environmental studies of Ethiopia.

scholarly journals Tropical Pacific Forcing of North American Medieval Megadroughts: Testing the Concept with an Atmosphere Model Forced by Coral-Reconstructed SSTs*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (23) ◽  
pp. 6175-6190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Seager ◽  
Robert Burgman ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Amy Clement ◽  
Ed Cook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
North American ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Medieval Period ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
Drought Severity Index ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The possible role that tropical Pacific SSTs played in driving the megadroughts over North America during the medieval period is addressed. Fossil coral records from the Palmyra Atoll are used to derive tropical Pacific SSTs for the period from a.d. 1320 to a.d. 1462 and show overall colder conditions as well as extended multidecadal La Niña–like states. The reconstructed SSTs are used to force a 16-member ensemble of atmosphere GCM simulations, each with different initial conditions, with the atmosphere coupled to a mixed layer ocean outside of the tropical Pacific. Model results are verified against North American tree ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. A singular value decomposition analysis is performed using the soil moisture anomaly simulated by another 16-member ensemble of simulations forced by global observed SSTs for 1856–2004 and tree ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the same period. This relationship is used to transfer the modeled medieval soil moisture anomaly (relative to the modern simulation) into a model-estimated Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model-estimated Palmer Drought Severity Index reproduces many aspects of both the interannual and decadal variations of the tree ring reconstructions, in addition to an overall drier climate that is drier than the tree ring records suggest. The model-estimated Palmer Drought Severity Index simulates two previously identified “megadroughts,” a.d. 1360–1400 and a.d. 1430–60, with a realistic spatial pattern and amplitude. In contrast, the model fails to produce a period of more normal conditions in the early fifteenth century that separated these two megadroughts. The dynamical link between tropical SSTs and the North American megadroughts is akin to that operating in modern droughts. The model results are used to argue that the tropical Pacific played an active role in driving the megadroughts. However, the match between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate is such that it is likely that both the coral-reconstructed SST anomalies contain significant errors and that SST anomalies in other basins also played a role in driving hydroclimate variations over North America during the late medieval period.

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) as an indicator of soil moisture

2005 ◽  
Vol 30 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 223-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Mika ◽  
Sz. Horváth ◽  
L. Makra ◽  
Z. Dunkel
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Severity Index

scholarly journals A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1117-1130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
Taotao Qian
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract A monthly dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1870 to 2002 is derived using historical precipitation and temperature data for global land areas on a 2.5° grid. Over Illinois, Mongolia, and parts of China and the former Soviet Union, where soil moisture data are available, the PDSI is significantly correlated (r = 0.5 to 0.7) with observed soil moisture content within the top 1-m depth during warm-season months. The strongest correlation is in late summer and autumn, and the weakest correlation is in spring, when snowmelt plays an important role. Basin-averaged annual PDSI covary closely (r = 0.6 to 0.8) with streamflow for seven of world's largest rivers and several smaller rivers examined. The results suggest that the PDSI is a good proxy of both surface moisture conditions and streamflow. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature and an El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced mode of mostly interannual variations as the two leading patterns. The global very dry areas, defined as PDSI < −3.0, have more than doubled since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an ENSO-induced precipitation decrease and a subsequent expansion primarily due to surface warming, while global very wet areas (PDSI > +3.0) declined slightly during the 1980s. Together, the global land areas in either very dry or very wet conditions have increased from ∼20% to 38% since 1972, with surface warming as the primary cause after the mid-1980s. These results provide observational evidence for the increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic global warming progresses and produces both increased temperatures and increased drying.

scholarly journals Analysis of wet and dry season by using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over Java Island

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinta Berliana S. ◽  
Indah Susanti ◽  
Bambang Siswanto ◽  
Amalia Nurlatifah ◽  
Hidayatul Latifah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in Mississippi, USA

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Grala ◽  
William H. Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
The State ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Forests constitute a large percentage of the total land area in Mississippi and are a vital element of the state economy. Although wildfire occurrences have been considerably reduced since the 1920s, there are still ~4000 wildfires each year in Mississippi burning over 24 000 ha (60 000 acres). This study focusses on recent history and various characteristics of Mississippi wildfires to provide better understanding of spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in the state. Geographic information systems and Mississippi Forestry Commission wildfire occurrence data were used to examine relationships between climatic and anthropogenic factors, the incidence, burned area, wildfire cause, and socioeconomic factors. The analysis indicated that wildfires are more frequent in southern Mississippi, in counties covered mostly by pine forest, and are most prominent in the winter–spring season. Proximity to roads and cities were two anthropogenic factors that had the most statistically significant correlation with wildfire occurrence and size. In addition, the validity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index as a measure of fire activity was tested for climatic districts in Mississippi. Analysis indicated that drought influences fire numbers and size during summer and fall (autumn). The strongest relationship between the Palmer Drought Severity Index and burned area was found for the southern climatic districts for the summer–fall season.

scholarly journals North American Supercell Environments in Atmospheric Reanalyses and RUC-2

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Austin T. King ◽  
Aaron D. Kennedy
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Kinematic Parameters ◽  
The North ◽  
Composite Parameter ◽  
Analysis Package ◽  
North American Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Effective Layer

AbstractA suite of modern atmospheric reanalyses is analyzed to determine how they represent North American supercell environments. This analysis is performed by comparing a database of Rapid Update Cycle (RUC-2) proximity soundings with profiles derived from the nearest grid point in each reanalysis. Parameters are calculated using the Sounding and Hodograph Analysis and Research Program in Python (SHARPpy), an open-source Python sounding-analysis package. Representation of supercell environments varies across the reanalyses, and the results have ramifications for climatological studies that use these datasets. In particular, thermodynamic parameters such as the convective available potential energy (CAPE) show the widest range in biases, with reanalyses falling into two camps. The North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) are similar to RUC-2, but other reanalyses have a substantial negative bias. The reasons for these biases vary and range from thermodynamic biases at the surface to evidence of convective contamination. Overall, it is found that thermodynamic biases feed back to other convective parameters that incorporate CAPE directly or indirectly via the effective layer. As a result, significant negative biases are found for indices such as the supercell composite parameter. These biases are smallest for NARR and JRA-55. Kinematic parameters are more consistent across the reanalyses. Given the issues with thermodynamic properties, better segregation of soundings by storm type is found for fixed-layer parameters than for effective-layer shear parameters. Although no reanalysis can exactly reproduce the results of earlier RUC-2 studies, many of the reanalyses can broadly distinguish between environments that are significantly tornadic versus nontornadic.

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