scholarly journals Influence of the Summer NAO on the Spring-NAO-Based Predictability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (7) ◽  
pp. 1459-1476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Zheng ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Yanjie Li ◽  
Sen Zhao ◽  
Difei Deng

AbstractThe dominant mode of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic region is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The boreal spring NAO may imprint its signal on contemporaneous sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a North Atlantic SST tripolar pattern (NAST). This pattern persists into the following summer and modulates the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Previous studies have shown that the summer NAST is caused mainly by the preceding spring NAO, whereas the contemporaneous summer NAO plays a secondary role. The results of this study illustrate that, even if the summer NAO plays a secondary role, it may also perturb summer SST anomalies caused by the spring NAO. There are two types of perturbation caused by the summer NAO. If the spring and summer NAO patterns have the same (opposite) polarities, the summer NAST tends to be enhanced (reduced) by the summer NAO, and the correlation between the spring NAO and EASM is usually stronger (weaker). In the former (latter) case, the spring-NAO-based prediction of the EASM tends to have better (limited) skill. These results indicate that it is important to consider the evolution of the NAO when forecasting the EASM, particular when there is a clear reversal in the polarity of the NAO, because it may impair the spring-NAO-based EASM prediction.

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7662-7675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Jung Ok ◽  
Jun-Hyeok Son ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha

Abstract Future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are estimated from historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) experiments of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs show that, like the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models produce slightly smaller precipitation. A moisture budget analysis illustrates that this precipitation deficit is due to an underestimation in evaporation and ensuing moisture flux convergence. Of the two components of the moisture flux convergence (i.e., moisture convergence and horizontal moist advection), moisture convergence associated with mass convergence is underestimated to a greater degree. Precipitation is anticipated to increase by 10%–15% toward the end of the twenty-first century over the major monsoonal front region. A statistically significant increase is predicted to occur mostly over the Baiu region and to the north and northeast of the Korean Peninsula. This increase is attributed to an increase in evaporation and moist flux convergence (with enhanced moisture convergence contributing the most) induced by the northwestward strengthening of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH), a characteristic feature of the future EASM that occurred in CMIP5 simulations. Along the northern and northwestern flank of the strengthened NPSH, intensified southerly or southwesterly winds lead to the increase in moist convergence, enhancing precipitation over these areas. However, future precipitation over the East China Sea is projected to decrease. In the EASM domain, a local mechanism prevails, with increased moisture and moisture convergence leading to a greater increase in moist static energy in the lower troposphere than in the upper troposphere, reducing tropospheric stability.


Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
Yongxiao Liang ◽  
Pengfeng Xiao

The effects of urbanization over eastern China on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) under different sea surface temperature background are compared using a Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.1). Experiments of urbanization investigated by comparing two climate simulations with and without urban land cover under both positive and negative phases of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) show the spatial distribution of precipitation with ‘southern flood and northern drought’ and weakening status of EASM. The climate effect of urbanization in eastern China is significantly different from north to south. Anomalous vertical ascending motion due to the role of urbanization in the south of 30° N have induced an increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation increase over southern China. At the same time, the downward vertical motion occurs in the north of 30° N which cause warming over northern China. Due to the anti-cyclonic anomalies in the upper and lower layers of the north, the monsoon circulation is weakened which can reduce the precipitation. However, urbanization impact under various phases of PDO show different effect. In the 1956–1970 urbanization experiments of negative PDO phase, the downward vertical motion and anti-cyclonic anomalies in the north of 30° N are also weaker than that of positive phase of PDO in 1982–1996. In terms of this situation, the urbanization experiments of negative phase of PDO reveal that the range of the warming area over the north of 40° N is small, and the warming intensity is weak, but the precipitation change is more obvious compared with the background of positive phase of PDO.


2008 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. 315-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houyun Zhou ◽  
Jianxin Zhao ◽  
Pingzhong Zhang ◽  
Chuan-Chou Shen ◽  
Baoquan Chi ◽  
...  

AbstractThe Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind, rainfall, and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation in East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia, however, suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon in East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to ~ 110 ka, a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time, which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region, and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fucai Duan ◽  
Zhenqiu Zhang ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Jianshun Chen ◽  
Zebo Liao ◽  
...  

Abstract. Variations of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the last millennium could help enlighten the monsoonal response to future global warming. Here we present a precisely dated and highly resolved stalagmite δ18O record from the Yongxing Cave, central China. Our new record, combined with a previously published one from the same cave, indicates that the EASM has changed dramatically in association with the global temperature rising. In particular, our record shows that the EASM has intensified during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP) but weakened during the Little Ice Age (LIA). We find that the EASM intensity is similar during the MCA and CWP periods in both northern and central China, but relatively stronger during the CWP in southern China. This discrepancy indicates a complicated regional response of the EASM to the anthropogenic forcing. The intensified and weakened EASM during the MCA and LIA matches well with the warm and cold phases of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature, respectively. This EASM pattern also corresponds well with the rainfall over the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool. Surprisingly, our record shows a strong association with the North Atlantic climate as well. The intensified (weakened) EASM correlates well with positive (negative) phases of North Atlantic Oscillation. In addition, our record links well with the strong (weak) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA (LIA) period. All above-mentioned correlations indicate that the EASM tightly couples with oceanic processes in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans during the MCA and LIA.


2019 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 738-753
Author(s):  
Dianbing Liu ◽  
Shushuang Liu ◽  
Yifan Fang

AbstractA 20-year-resolution speleothem δ18O record from southern China reveals a detailed Asian summer monsoon (ASM) history between 73.6 and 62.3 ka. ASM changes during Interstadial 19 and late MIS 4 matched Greenland temperature variations but were antiphased with Antarctic temperatures. However, long-term strengthening of the ASM in early MIS 4 agrees well with the gradual Antarctic warming, when Greenland remained in a stable cold state. More specifically, the ASM was less variable during peak interstadials in contrast to striking instabilities during stadials. These observations suggest that the factors dominating ASM variability change through time. During early MIS 4, negligible freshwater perturbations occurred in the North Atlantic, and sea-surface temperatures in the low- to midlatitude Pacific Ocean reached the modern level. Thus, an expansion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was likely important for the long-term ASM rise. In late MIS 4, the antiphase correlation between ASM and Antarctic temperature could be attributed to freshwater inputs into the North Atlantic and a southerly positioned ITCZ. Consequently, meridional ITCZ shifts, although within a limited latitudinal band, would result in an antiphase relationship between interhemispheric climate changes. Otherwise, an in-phase correlation could be expected if the centroid of ITCZ is stable along the equator.


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