scholarly journals The Predictability of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability: Insights from Attractor Reconstruction

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 801-819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nandini Ramesh ◽  
Mark A. Cane
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The Other ◽  
Intermediate Complexity ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
Attractor Reconstruction ◽  
Climatic Impacts ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), though not the totality of Pacific decadal variability, has wide-ranging climatic impacts. It is currently unclear whether this phenomenon is predictable. In this study, we reconstruct the attractor of the tropical Pacific system in long, unforced simulations from an intermediate-complexity model, two general circulation models (GCMs), and the observations with the aim of assessing the predictability of TPDV in these systems. We find that in the intermediate-complexity model, positive (high variance, El Niño–like) and negative (low variance, La Niña–like) phases of TPDV emerge as a pair of regime-like states. The observed system bears resemblance to this behavior, as does one GCM, while the other GCM does not display this structure. However, these last three time series are too short to confidently characterize the full distribution of interdecadal variability. The intermediate-complexity model is shown to lie in highly predictable parts of its attractor 37% of the time, during which most transitions between TPDV regimes occur. The similarities between the observations and this system suggest that the tropical Pacific may be somewhat predictable on interdecadal time scales.

Successive Modulation of ENSO to the Future Greenhouse Warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
In-Sik Kang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The multidecadal modulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and the eigenanalysis of a simplified version of an intermediate ENSO model. The response of the global-mean troposphere temperature to increasing greenhouse gases is more likely linear, while the amplitude and period of ENSO fluctuates in a multidecadal time scale. The climate system model outputs suggest that the multidecadal modulation of ENSO is related to the delayed response of the subsurface temperature in the tropical Pacific compared to the response time of the sea surface temperature (SST), which would lead a modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. Furthermore, an eigenanalysis considering only two parameters, the changes in the zonal contrast of the mean background SST and the changes in the vertical contrast between the mean surface and subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, exhibits a good agreement with the CGCM outputs in terms of the multidecadal modulations of the ENSO amplitude and period. In particular, the change in the vertical contrast, that is, change in difference between the subsurface temperature and SST, turns out to be more influential on the ENSO modulation than changes in the mean SST itself.

Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 models in the tropical Atlantic: mean state, variability, and remote impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingo Richter ◽  
Hiroki Tokinaga
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Mean State ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

<p>General circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined with respect to their ability to simulate the mean state and variability of the tropical Atlantic, as well as its linkage to the tropical Pacific. While, on average, mean state biases have improved little relative to the previous intercomparison (CMIP5), there are now a few models with very small biases. In particular the equatorial Atlantic warm SST and westerly wind biases are mostly eliminated in these models. Furthermore, interannual variability in the equatorial and subtropical Atlantic is quite realistic in a number of CMIP6 models, which suggests that they should be useful tools for understanding and predicting variability patterns. The evolution of equatorial Atlantic biases follows the same pattern as in previous model generations, with westerly wind biases during boreal spring preceding warm sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the east during boreal summer. A substantial portion of the westerly wind bias exists already in atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SST, suggesting an atmospheric origin. While variability is relatively realistic in many models, SSTs seem less responsive to wind forcing than observed, both on the equator and in the subtropics, possibly due to an excessively deep mixed layer originating in the oceanic component. Thus models with realistic SST amplitude tend to have excessive wind amplitude. The models with the smallest mean state biases all have relatively high resolution but there are also a few low-resolution models that perform similarly well, indicating that resolution is not the only way toward reducing tropical Atlantic biases. The results also show a relatively weak link between mean state biases and the quality of the simulated variability. The linkage to the tropical Pacific shows a wide range of behaviors across models, indicating the need for further model improvement.</p>

Pacific Decadal Variability: The Tropical Pacific Mode and the North Pacific Mode*

2003 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 1101-1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Wu ◽  
Z. Liu ◽  
R. Gallimore ◽  
R. Jacob ◽  
D. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

scholarly journals A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (17) ◽  
pp. 5943-5961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Jason E. Smerdon ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Jesús Fidel González-Rouco
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Wave Pattern ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Centennial Time Scale ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Internal climate variability at the centennial time scale is investigated using long control integrations from three state-of-the-art global coupled general circulation models. In the absence of external forcing, all three models produce centennial variability in the mean zonal sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) gradients in the equatorial Pacific with counterparts in the extratropics. The centennial pattern in the tropical Pacific is dissimilar to that of the interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in that the most prominent expression in temperature is found beneath the surface of the western Pacific warm pool. Some global repercussions nevertheless are analogous, such as a hemispherically symmetric atmospheric wave pattern of alternating highs and lows. Centennial variability in western equatorial Pacific SST is a result of the strong asymmetry of interannual ocean heat content anomalies, while the eastern equatorial Pacific exhibits a lagged, Bjerknes-like response to temperature and convection in the west. The extratropical counterpart is shown to be a flux-driven response to the hemispherically symmetric circulation anomalies emanating from the tropical Pacific. Significant centennial-length trends in the zonal SST and SLP gradients rivaling those estimated from observations and model simulations forced with increasing CO2 appear to be inherent features of the internal climate dynamics simulated by all three models. Unforced variability and trends on the centennial time scale therefore need to be addressed in estimated uncertainties, beyond more traditional signal-to-noise estimates that do not account for natural variability on the centennial time scale.

scholarly journals Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and the Subtropical–Tropical Cells

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 5163-5178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katja Lohmann ◽  
Mojib Latif
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Decadal Mode

Abstract The decadal-scale variability in the tropical Pacific has been analyzed herein by means of observations and numerical model simulations. The two leading modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central western Pacific are a decadal mode with a period of about 10 yr and the ENSO mode with a dominant period of about 4 yr. The SST anomaly pattern of the decadal mode is ENSO like. The decadal mode, however, explains most variance in the western equatorial Pacific and off the equator. A simulation with an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by reanalysis data is used to explore the origin of the decadal mode. It is found that the variability of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells is an important factor in driving the decadal mode. This is supported by results from a multicentury integration with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) that realistically simulates tropical Pacific decadal variability. Finally, the sensitivity of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells to greenhouse warming is discussed by analyzing the results of a scenario integration with the same CGCM.

scholarly journals The Tropical Pacific ENSO–Mean State Relationship in Climate Models over the Last Millennium

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (17) ◽  
pp. 7539-7551
Author(s):  
D. Allie Wyman ◽  
Jessica. L. Conroy ◽  
Christina Karamperidou
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

AbstractENSO and the mean zonal sea surface temperature gradient (dSST) of the tropical Pacific are important drivers of global climate and vary on decadal to centennial time scales. However, the relationship between dSST and ENSO cannot be assessed with the short instrumental record, and is uncertain in proxy data, with intervals of both stronger and weaker ENSO postulated to occur with overall strong dSST in the past. Here we assess the ENSO–dSST relationship during the last millennium using general circulation models (GCMs) participating in phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. Last millennium GCM simulations show diversity in the strength and direction of the ENSO–dSST relationship. Yet, the models that best simulate modern tropical Pacific climate frequently have a more negative ENSO–dSST correlation. Thus, last millennium tropical Pacific climate simulations support the likelihood of enhanced ENSO during decadal to centennial periods of reduced tropical Pacific dSST. However, the alternating directional ENSO–dSST relationship in all model simulations suggests that this relationship is not constant through time and is likely controlled by multiple mechanisms.

scholarly journals Role of Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing from the South and North Pacific in Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (13) ◽  
pp. 4013-4038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianyi Sun ◽  
Yuko M. Okumura
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
The South ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Stochastic variability of internal atmospheric modes, known as teleconnection patterns, drives large-scale patterns of low-frequency SST variability in the extratropics. To investigate how the decadal component of this stochastically driven variability in the South and North Pacific affects the tropical Pacific and contributes to the observed basinwide pattern of decadal variability, a suite of climate model experiments was conducted. In these experiments, the models are forced with constant surface heat flux anomalies associated with the decadal component of the dominant atmospheric modes, particularly the Pacific–South American (PSA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) patterns. Both the PSA and NPO modes induce basinwide SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and beyond that resemble the observed interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The subtropical SST anomalies forced by the PSA and NPO modes propagate to the equatorial Pacific mainly through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. This atmospheric bridge is stronger from the South Pacific than the North Pacific due to the northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone and the associated northward advection of momentum anomalies. The equatorial ocean dynamics is also more strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation changes induced by the PSA mode than the NPO mode. In the PSA experiment, persistent and zonally coherent wind stress curl anomalies over the South Pacific affect the zonal mean depth of the equatorial thermocline and weaken the equatorial SST anomalies resulting from the atmospheric bridge. This oceanic adjustment serves as a delayed negative feedback and may be important for setting the time scales of tropical Pacific decadal variability.

Comparison and Sensitivity of ODASI Ocean Analyses in the Tropical Pacific

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (6) ◽  
pp. 2242-2264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaojiao Sun ◽  
Michele M. Rienecker ◽  
Anthony Rosati ◽  
Matthew Harrison ◽  
Andrew Wittenberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Salinity Treatment ◽  
Salinity Field ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Two global ocean analyses from 1993 to 2001 have been generated by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), as part of the Ocean Data Assimilation for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (ODASI) consortium efforts. The ocean general circulation models (OGCM) and assimilation methods in the analyses are different, but the forcing and observations are the same as designed for ODASI experiments. Global expendable bathythermograph and Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) temperature profile observations are assimilated. The GMAO analysis also assimilates synthetic salinity profiles based on climatological T–S relationships from observations (denoted “TS scheme”). The quality of the two ocean analyses in the tropical Pacific is examined here. Questions such as the following are addressed: How do different assimilation methods impact the analyses, including ancillary fields such as salinity and currents? Is there a significant difference in interpretation of the variability from different analyses? How does the treatment of salinity impact the analyses? Both GMAO and GFDL analyses reproduce the time mean and variability of the temperature field compared with assimilated TAO temperature data, taking into account the natural variability and representation errors of the assimilated temperature observations. Surface zonal currents at 15 m from the two analyses generally agree with observed climatology. Zonal current profiles from the analyses capture the intensity and variability of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) displayed in the independent acoustic Doppler current profiler data at three TAO moorings across the equatorial Pacific basin. Compared with independent data from TAO servicing cruises, the results show that 1) temperature errors are reduced below the thermocline in both analyses; 2) salinity errors are considerably reduced below the thermocline in the GMAO analysis; and 3) errors in zonal currents from both analyses are comparable. To discern the impact of the forcing and salinity treatment, a sensitivity study is undertaken with the GMAO assimilation system. Additional analyses are produced with a different forcing dataset, and another scheme to modify the salinity field is tested. This second scheme updates salinity at the time of temperature assimilation based on model T–S relationships (denoted “T scheme”). The results show that both assimilated field (i.e., temperature) and fields that are not directly observed (i.e., salinity and currents) are impacted. Forcing appears to have more impact near the surface (above the core of the EUC), while the salinity treatment is more important below the surface that is directly influenced by forcing. Overall, the TS scheme is more effective than the T scheme in correcting model bias in salinity and improving the current structure. Zonal currents from the GMAO control run where no data are assimilated are as good as the best analysis.

scholarly journals The Seasonal Cycle over the Tropical Pacific in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Models

1995 ◽  
Vol 123 (9) ◽  
pp. 2825-2838 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.R. Mechoso ◽  
A.W. Robertson ◽  
N. Barth ◽  
M.K. Davey ◽  
P. Delecluse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Tropical Atmospheric Variability Forced by Oceanic Internal Variability

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 765-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Jochum ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Adam Phillips
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Instability Waves ◽  
Tropical Instability Waves ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Atmospheric general circulation model experiments are conducted to quantify the contribution of internal oceanic variability in the form of tropical instability waves (TIWs) to interannual wind and rainfall variability in the tropical Pacific. It is found that in the tropical Pacific, along the equator, and near 25°N and 25°S, TIWs force a significant increase in wind and rainfall variability from interseasonal to interannual time scales. Because of the stochastic nature of TIWs, this means that climate models that do not take them into account will underestimate the strength and number of extreme events and may overestimate forecast capability.

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