The Evolution of Climate Sensitivity and Climate Feedbacks in the Community Atmosphere Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1453-1469 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gettelman ◽  
J. E. Kay ◽  
K. M. Shell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
The Difference

The major evolution of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used to diagnose climate feedbacks, understand how climate feedbacks change with different physical parameterizations, and identify the processes and regions that determine climate sensitivity. In the evolution of CAM from version 4 to version 5, the water vapor, temperature, surface albedo, and lapse rate feedbacks are remarkably stable across changes to the physical parameterization suite. However, the climate sensitivity increases from 3.2 K in CAM4 to 4.0 K in CAM5. The difference is mostly due to (i) more positive cloud feedbacks and (ii) higher CO2 radiative forcing in CAM5. The intermodel differences in cloud feedbacks are largest in the tropical trade cumulus regime and in the midlatitude storm tracks. The subtropical stratocumulus regions do not contribute strongly to climate feedbacks owing to their small area coverage. A “modified Cess” configuration for atmosphere-only model experiments is shown to reproduce slab ocean model results. Several parameterizations contribute to changes in tropical cloud feedbacks between CAM4 and CAM5, but the new shallow convection scheme causes the largest midlatitude feedback differences and the largest change in climate sensitivity. Simulations with greater cloud forcing in the mean state have lower climate sensitivity. This work provides a methodology for further analysis of climate sensitivity across models and a framework for targeted comparisons with observations that can help constrain climate sensitivity to radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Climate Feedbacks in CCSM3 under Changing CO2 Forcing. Part II: Variation of Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity with Forcing

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2784-2795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra K. Jonko ◽  
Karen M. Shell ◽  
Benjamin M. Sanderson ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Response To Temperature ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract Are equilibrium climate sensitivity and the associated radiative feedbacks a constant property of the climate system, or do they change with forcing magnitude and base climate? Using the radiative kernel technique, feedbacks and climate sensitivity are evaluated in a fully coupled general circulation model (GCM) for three successive doublings of carbon dioxide starting from present-day concentrations. Climate sensitivity increases by 23% between the first and third CO2 doublings. Increases in the positive water vapor and cloud feedbacks are partially balanced by a decrease in the positive surface albedo feedback and an increase in the negative lapse rate feedback. Feedbacks can be decomposed into a radiative flux change and a climate variable response to temperature change. The changes in water vapor and Planck feedbacks are due largely to changes in the radiative response with climate state. Higher concentrations of greenhouse gases and higher temperatures lead to more absorption and emission of longwave radiation. Changes in cloud feedbacks are dominated by the climate response to temperature change, while the lapse rate and albedo feedbacks combine elements of both. Simulations with a slab ocean model (SOM) version of the GCM are used to verify whether an SOM-GCM accurately reproduces the behavior of the fully coupled model. Although feedbacks differ in magnitude between model configurations (with differences as large as those between CO2 doublings for some feedbacks), changes in feedbacks between CO2 doublings are consistent in sign and magnitude in the SOM-GCM and the fully coupled model.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Climate Feedback Strength between CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 3374-3395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback ◽  
Feedback Strength ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference

Abstract Studies of the climate in the past potentially provide a constraint on the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, but previous studies warn against a simple scaling to the future. Climate sensitivity is determined by a number of feedback processes, and they may vary according to climate states and forcings. In this study, the similarities and differences in feedbacks for CO2 doubling, a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and LGM greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing experiments are investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. After computing the radiative forcing, the individual feedback strengths of water vapor, lapse-rate, albedo, and cloud feedbacks are evaluated explicitly. For this particular model, the difference in the climate sensitivity between the experiments is attributed to the shortwave cloud feedback, in which there is a tendency for it to become weaker or even negative in cooling experiments. No significant difference is found in the water vapor feedback between warming and cooling experiments by GHGs. The weaker positive water vapor feedback in the LGM experiment resulting from a relatively weaker tropical forcing is compensated for by the stronger positive lapse-rate feedback resulting from a relatively stronger extratropical forcing. A hypothesis is proposed that explains the asymmetric cloud response between the warming and cooling experiments associated with a displacement of the region of mixed-phase clouds. The difference in the total feedback strength between the experiments is, however, relatively small compared to the current intermodel spread, and does not necessarily preclude the use of LGM climate as a future constraint.

The University of Washington Shallow Convection and Moist Turbulence Schemes and Their Impact on Climate Simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 3449-3469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungsu Park ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
University Of Washington ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
The University

Abstract This paper describes a new version of the University of Washington shallow cumulus parameterization. The new version includes improved treatments of lateral mixing rates into cumulus updrafts, the evaporation of precipitation and of the interaction of cumuli with the underlying subcloud layer, and a treatment of the convective inhibition-based mass-flux closure that is more numerically stable and is suitable for the long time steps of global climate models. The paper also documents its performance when combined with a new moist turbulence parameterization in simulations with version 3.5 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.5). A single-column simulation of nonprecipitating trade cumulus shows considerable improvements in vertical thermodynamic structure and less resolution sensitivity in the new schemes compared to CAM3.5. In global simulations, the new schemes, combined with an increase of vertical resolution from 26 to 30 levels, produce a significant (7%) reduction in overall climate bias, calculated from root-mean-squared error of the seasonal model climatology compared to a suite of global observations of various fields. Biases in almost all fields, particularly the shortwave cloud radiative forcing, are reduced. Geographical bias patterns in surface rainfall, liquid water path, and surface air temperature are only mildly affected by the model parameterization and vertical resolution changes.

scholarly journals Improving subtropical boundary layer cloudiness in the 2011 NCEP GFS

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 2249-2291 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Fletcher ◽  
C. S. Bretherton ◽  
H. Xiao ◽  
R. Sun ◽  
J. Han
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Shallow Cumulus ◽  
Single Column ◽  
Low Cloud ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract. The current operational version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows significant low cloud bias. These biases also appear in the Coupled Forecast System (CFS), which is developed from the GFS. These low cloud biases degrade seasonal and longer climate forecasts, particularly of shortwave cloud radiative forcing, and affect predicted sea-surface temperature. Reducing this bias in the GFS will aid the development of future CFS versions and contributes to NCEP's goal of unified weather and climate modelling. Changes are made to the shallow convection and planetary boundary layer parametrisations to make them more consistent with current knowledge of these processes and to reduce the low cloud bias. These changes are tested in a single-column version of GFS and in global simulations with GFS coupled to a dynamical ocean model. In the single column model, we focus on changing parameters that set the following: the strength of shallow cumulus lateral entrainment, the conversion of updraught liquid water to precipitation and grid-scale condensate, shallow cumulus cloud top, and the effect of shallow convection in stratocumulus environments. Results show that these changes improve the single-column simulations when compared to large eddy simulations, in particular through decreasing the precipitation efficiency of boundary layer clouds. These changes, combined with a few other model improvements, also reduce boundary layer cloud and albedo biases in global coupled simulations.

Exposing Global Cloud Biases in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) Using Satellite Observations and Their Corresponding Instrument Simulators

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (15) ◽  
pp. 5190-5207 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Kay ◽  
B. R. Hillman ◽  
S. A. Klein ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
B. Medeiros ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Marine Boundary Layer ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Realistic Representation ◽  
Model Cloud ◽  
Atmosphere Model

Abstract Satellite observations and their corresponding instrument simulators are used to document global cloud biases in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) versions 4 and 5. The model–observation comparisons show that, despite having nearly identical cloud radiative forcing, CAM5 has a much more realistic representation of cloud properties than CAM4. In particular, CAM5 exhibits substantial improvement in three long-standing climate model cloud biases: 1) the underestimation of total cloud, 2) the overestimation of optically thick cloud, and 3) the underestimation of midlevel cloud. While the increased total cloud and decreased optically thick cloud in CAM5 result from improved physical process representation, the increased midlevel cloud in CAM5 results from the addition of radiatively active snow. Despite these improvements, both CAM versions have cloud deficiencies. Of particular concern, both models exhibit large but differing biases in the subtropical marine boundary layer cloud regimes that are known to explain intermodel differences in cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity. More generally, this study demonstrates that simulator-facilitated evaluation of cloud properties, such as amount by vertical level and optical depth, can robustly expose large and at times radiatively compensating climate model cloud biases.

scholarly journals Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4518-4534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle C. Armour ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz ◽  
Gerard H. Roe
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Time Variation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Geographic Pattern ◽  
Surface Warming

Abstract The sensitivity of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the global climate feedback—the global radiative response per degree of global annual mean surface temperature change. While the global climate feedback is often assumed to be constant, its value—diagnosed from global climate models—shows substantial time variation under transient warming. Here a reformulation of the global climate feedback in terms of its contributions from regional climate feedbacks is proposed, providing a clear physical insight into this behavior. Using (i) a state-of-the-art global climate model and (ii) a low-order energy balance model, it is shown that the global climate feedback is fundamentally linked to the geographic pattern of regional climate feedbacks and the geographic pattern of surface warming at any given time. Time variation of the global climate feedback arises naturally when the pattern of surface warming evolves, actuating feedbacks of different strengths in different regions. This result has substantial implications for the ability to constrain future climate changes from observations of past and present climate states. The regional climate feedbacks formulation also reveals fundamental biases in a widely used method for diagnosing climate sensitivity, feedbacks, and radiative forcing—the regression of the global top-of-atmosphere radiation flux on global surface temperature. Further, it suggests a clear mechanism for the “efficacies” of both ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Compensation between Model Feedbacks and Curtailment of Climate Sensitivity

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 3009-3018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Huybers
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Statistical Interpretation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Feedback Strength

Abstract The spread in climate sensitivity obtained from 12 general circulation model runs used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates a 95% confidence interval of 2.1°–5.5°C, but this reflects compensation between model feedbacks. In particular, cloud feedback strength negatively covaries with the albedo feedback as well as with the combined water vapor plus lapse rate feedback. If the compensation between feedbacks is removed, the 95% confidence interval for climate sensitivity expands to 1.9°–8.0°C. Neither of the quoted 95% intervals adequately reflects the understanding of climate sensitivity, but their differences illustrate that model interdependencies must be understood before model spread can be correctly interpreted. The degree of negative covariance between feedbacks is unlikely to result from chance alone. It may, however, result from the method by which the feedbacks were estimated, physical relationships represented in the models, or from conditioning the models upon some combination of observations and expectations. This compensation between model feedbacks—when taken together with indications that variations in radiative forcing and the rate of ocean heat uptake play a similar compensatory role in models—suggests that conditioning of the models acts to curtail the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity. Observations used to condition the models ought to be explicitly stated, or there is the risk of doubly calling on data for purposes of both calibration and evaluation. Conditioning the models upon individual expectation (e.g., anchoring to the Charney range of 3° ± 1.5°C), to the extent that it exists, greatly complicates statistical interpretation of the intermodel spread.

scholarly journals How Well Do We Understand and Evaluate Climate Change Feedback Processes?

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3445-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandrine Bony ◽  
Robert Colman ◽  
Vladimir M. Kattsov ◽  
Richard P. Allan ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
External Perturbation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Estimates

Abstract Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations.

scholarly journals Modeling dust as component minerals in the Community Atmosphere Model: development of framework and impact on radiative forcing

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 17749-17816 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Scanza ◽  
N. Mahowald ◽  
S. Ghan ◽  
C. S. Zender ◽  
J. F. Kok ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mineral Soil ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Mineral Aerosols ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
Aerosol Module

Abstract. The mineralogy of desert dust is important due to its effect on radiation, clouds and biogeochemical cycling of trace nutrients. This study presents the simulation of dust radiative forcing as a function of both mineral composition and size at the global scale using mineral soil maps for estimating emissions. Externally mixed mineral aerosols in the bulk aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) and internally mixed mineral aerosols in the modal aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) embedded in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM) are speciated into common mineral components in place of total dust. The simulations with mineralogy are compared to available observations of mineral atmospheric distribution and deposition along with observations of clear-sky radiative forcing efficiency. Based on these simulations, we estimate the all-sky direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as +0.05 W m−2 for both CAM4 and CAM5 simulations with mineralogy and compare this both with simulations of dust in release versions of CAM4 and CAM5 (+0.08 and +0.17 W m−2) and of dust with optimized optical properties, wet scavenging and particle size distribution in CAM4 and CAM5, −0.05 and −0.17 W m−2, respectively. The ability to correctly include the mineralogy of dust in climate models is hindered by its spatial and temporal variability as well as insufficient global in-situ observations, incomplete and uncertain source mineralogies and the uncertainties associated with data retrieved from remote sensing methods.

scholarly journals The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 – Part 2: Cloud evaluation, aerosol radiative forcing, and climate sensitivity

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3609-3639 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Neubauer ◽  
Sylvaine Ferrachat ◽  
Colombe Siegenthaler-Le Drian ◽  
Philip Stier ◽  
Daniel G. Partridge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Previous Model ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Aerosol Activation

Abstract. The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 (E63H23) as well as the previous model versions ECHAM5.5–HAM2.0 (E55H20) and ECHAM6.1–HAM2.2 (E61H22) are evaluated using global observational datasets for clouds and precipitation. In E63H23, the amount of low clouds, the liquid and ice water path, and cloud radiative effects are more realistic than in previous model versions. E63H23 has a more physically based aerosol activation scheme, improvements in the cloud cover scheme, changes in the detrainment of convective clouds, changes in the sticking efficiency for the accretion of ice crystals by snow, consistent ice crystal shapes throughout the model, and changes in mixed-phase freezing; an inconsistency in ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) in cirrus clouds was also removed. Common biases in ECHAM and in E63H23 (and in previous ECHAM–HAM versions) are a cloud amount in stratocumulus regions that is too low and deep convective clouds over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans that form too close to the continents (while tropical land precipitation is underestimated). There are indications that ICNCs are overestimated in E63H23. Since clouds are important for effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFari+aci) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), differences in ERFari+aci and ECS between the model versions were also analyzed. ERFari+aci is weaker in E63H23 (−1.0 W m−2) than in E61H22 (−1.2 W m−2) (or E55H20; −1.1 W m−2). This is caused by the weaker shortwave ERFari+aci (a new aerosol activation scheme and sea salt emission parameterization in E63H23, more realistic simulation of cloud water) overcompensating for the weaker longwave ERFari+aci (removal of an inconsistency in ICNC in cirrus clouds in E61H22). The decrease in ECS in E63H23 (2.5 K) compared to E61H22 (2.8 K) is due to changes in the entrainment rate for shallow convection (affecting the cloud amount feedback) and a stronger cloud phase feedback. Experiments with minimum cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCmin) of 40 cm−3 or 10 cm−3 show that a higher value of CDNCmin reduces ERFari+aci as well as ECS in E63H23.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document