scholarly journals Can Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Measurements Constrain Climate Predictions? Part II: Climate Sensitivity

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9367-9383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon F. B. Tett ◽  
Daniel J. Rowlands ◽  
Michael J. Mineter ◽  
Coralia Cartis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Prior Probabilities ◽  
Internal Climate Variability

A large number of perturbed-physics simulations of version 3 of the Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model (HadAM3) were compared with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) estimates of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and reflected shortwave radiation (RSR) as well as OLR and RSR from the earlier Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) estimates. The model configurations were produced from several independent optimization experiments in which four parameters were adjusted. Model–observation uncertainty was estimated by combining uncertainty arising from satellite measurements, observational radiation imbalance, total solar irradiance, radiative forcing, natural aerosol, internal climate variability, and sea surface temperature and that arising from parameters that were not varied. Using an emulator built from 14 001 “slab” model evaluations carried out using the climateprediction.net ensemble, the climate sensitivity for each configuration was estimated. Combining different prior probabilities for model configurations with the likelihood for each configuration and taking account of uncertainty in the emulated climate sensitivity gives, for the HadAM3 model, a 2.5%–97.5% range for climate sensitivity of 2.7–4.2 K if the CERES observations are correct. If the ERBE observations are correct, then they suggest a larger range, for HadAM3, of 2.8–5.6 K. Amplifying the CERES observational covariance estimate by a factor of 20 brings CERES and ERBE estimates into agreement. In this case the climate sensitivity range is 2.7–5.4 K. The results rule out, at the 2.5% level for HadAM3 and several different prior assumptions, climate sensitivities greater than 5.6 K.

scholarly journals On the Surface Temperature Sensitivity of the Reflected Shortwave, Outgoing Longwave, and Net Incident Radiation

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6585-6593 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hartmut H. Aumann ◽  
Alexander Ruzmaikin ◽  
Ali Behrangi
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Incident Radiation ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Correlation Technique ◽  
Cloud Forcing ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract The global-mean top-of-atmosphere incident solar radiation (ISR) minus the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reflected shortwave radiation (RSW) is the net incident radiation (NET). This study analyzes the global-mean NET sensitivity to a change in the global-mean surface temperature by applying the interannual anomaly correlation technique to 9 yr of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) global measurements of RSW and OLR under cloudy and clear conditions. The study finds the observed sensitivity of NET that includes the effects of clouds to be −1.5 ± 0.25 (1σ) W m−2 K−1 and the clear NET sensitivity to be −2.0 ± 0.2 (1σ) W m−2 K−1, consistent with previous work using Earth Radiation Budget Experiment and Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System data. The cloud effect, +0.5 ± 0.2 (1σ) W m−2 K−1, is a positive component of the NET sensitivity. The similarity of the NET sensitivities derived from forced and unforced models invites a comparison between the observed sensitivities and the effective sensitivities calculated for the Fourth Assessment Report models, although this requires some caution: The effective model sensitivities with clouds range from −0.88 to −1.64 W m−2 K−1, the clear NET sensitivity in the models ranges from −2.32 to −1.73 W m−2 K−1, and the cloud forcing sensitivities range from +0.14 to +1.18 W m−2 K−1. The effective NET and clear NET sensitivities derived from the models are statistically consistent with those derived from the AIRS data, considering the observational and model derivation uncertainties.

Constraints on Climate Sensitivity from Radiation Patterns in Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1034-1052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Huber ◽  
Irina Mahlstein ◽  
Martin Wild ◽  
John Fasullo ◽  
Reto Knutti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Radiation Patterns ◽  
Strong Constraint

Abstract The estimated range of climate sensitivity, the equilibrium warming resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, has not decreased substantially in past decades. New statistical methods for estimating the climate sensitivity have been proposed and provide a better quantification of relative probabilities of climate sensitivity within the almost canonical range of 2–4.5 K; however, large uncertainties remain, in particular for the upper bound. Simple indices of spatial radiation patterns are used here to establish a relationship between an observable radiative quantity and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. The indices are computed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset and offer a possibility to constrain climate sensitivity by considering radiation patterns in the climate system. High correlations between the indices and climate sensitivity are found, for example, in the cloud radiative forcing of the incoming longwave surface radiation and in the clear-sky component of the incoming surface shortwave flux, the net shortwave surface budget, and the atmospheric shortwave attenuation variable β. The climate sensitivity was estimated from the mean of the indices during the years 1990–99 for the CMIP3 models. The surface radiative flux dataset from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) together with its top-of-atmosphere Energy Balanced and Filled equivalent (CERES EBAF) are used as a reference observational dataset, resulting in a best estimate for climate sensitivity of 3.3 K with a likely range of 2.7–4.0 K. A comparison with other satellite and reanalysis datasets show similar likely ranges and best estimates of 1.7–3.8 (3.3 K) [Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)], 2.9–3.7 (3.3 K) [International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project radiative surface flux data (ISCCP-FD)], 2.8–4.1 (3.5 K) [NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA)], 3.0–4.2 (3.6 K) [Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis (JRA-25)], 2.7–3.9 (3.4 K) [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim)], 3.0–4.0 (3.5 K) [ERA-40], and 3.1–4.7 (3.6 K) for the NCEP reanalysis. For each individual reference dataset, the results suggest that values for the sensitivity below 1.7 K are not likely to be consistent with observed radiation patterns given the structure of current climate models. For the aggregation of the reference datasets, the climate sensitivity is not likely to be below 2.9 K within the framework of this study, whereas values exceeding 4.5 K cannot be excluded from this analysis. While these ranges cannot be interpreted properly in terms of probability, they are consistent with other estimates of climate sensitivity and reaffirm that the current climatology provides a strong constraint on the lower bound of climate sensitivity even in a set of structurally different models.

scholarly journals Can Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Measurements Constrain Climate Predictions? Part I: Tuning

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9348-9366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon F. B. Tett ◽  
Michael J. Mineter ◽  
Coralia Cartis ◽  
Daniel J. Rowlands ◽  
Ping Liu
Keyword(s):  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Outgoing Radiation ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Hadley Centre

Perturbed physics configurations of version 3 of the Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model (HadAM3) driven with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice were tuned to outgoing radiation observations using a Gauss–Newton line search optimization algorithm to adjust the model parameters. Four key parameters that previous research found affected climate sensitivity were adjusted to several different target values including two sets of observations. The observations used were the global average reflected shortwave radiation (RSR) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System instruments combined with observations of ocean heat content. Using the same method, configurations were also generated that were consistent with the earlier Earth Radiation Budget Experiment results. Many, though not all, tuning experiments were successful, with about 2500 configurations being generated and the changes in simulated outgoing radiation largely due to changes in clouds. Clear-sky radiation changes were small, largely due to a cancellation between changes in upper-tropospheric relative humidity and temperature. Changes in other climate variables are strongly related to changes in OLR and RSR particularly on large scales. There appears to be some equifinality with different parameter configurations producing OLR and RSR values close to observed values. These models have small differences in their climatology with the one group being similar to the standard configuration and the other group drier in the tropics and warmer everywhere.

Evaluation of net shortwave radiation over China with a regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-163
Author(s):  
X Liu ◽  
Y Kang ◽  
Q Liu ◽  
Z Guo ◽  
Y Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Monsoon Region ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Sky Conditions

The regional climate model RegCM version 4.6, developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis, was used to simulate the radiation budget over China. Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite data were utilized to evaluate the simulation results based on 4 radiative components: net shortwave (NSW) radiation at the surface of the earth and top of the atmosphere (TOA) under all-sky and clear-sky conditions. The performance of the model for low-value areas of NSW was superior to that for high-value areas. NSW at the surface and TOA under all-sky conditions was significantly underestimated; the spatial distribution of the bias was negative in the north and positive in the south, bounded by 25°N for the annual and seasonal averaged difference maps. Compared with the all-sky condition, the simulation effect under clear-sky conditions was significantly better, which indicates that the cloud fraction is the key factor affecting the accuracy of the simulation. In particular, the bias of the TOA NSW under the clear-sky condition was <±10 W m-2 in the eastern areas. The performance of the model was better over the eastern monsoon region in winter and autumn for surface NSW under clear-sky conditions, which may be related to different levels of air pollution during each season. Among the 3 areas, the regional average biases overall were largest (negative) over the Qinghai-Tibet alpine region and smallest over the eastern monsoon region.

scholarly journals The Climate Monitoring SAF Outgoing Longwave Radiation from AVHRR

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Clerbaux ◽  
Tom Akkermans ◽  
Edward Baudrez ◽  
Almudena Velazquez Blazquez ◽  
William Moutier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Outgoing Longwave Radiation ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Night Time ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Climate Monitoring ◽  
Orbital Drift

Data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) have been used to create several long-duration data records of geophysical variables describing the atmosphere and land and water surfaces. In the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF) project, AVHRR data are used to derive the Cloud, Albedo, and Radiation (CLARA) climate data records of radiation components (i.a., surface albedo) and cloud properties (i.a., cloud cover). This work describes the methodology implemented for the additional estimation of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), an important Earth radiation budget component, that is consistent with the other CLARA variables. A first step is the estimation of the instantaneous OLR from the AVHRR observations. This is done by regressions on a large database of collocated observations between AVHRR Channel 4 (10.8 µm) and 5 (12 µm) and the OLR from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments. We investigate the applicability of this method to the first generation of AVHRR instrument (AVHRR/1) for which no Channel 5 observation is available. A second step concerns the estimation of daily and monthly OLR from the instantaneous AVHRR overpasses. This step is especially important given the changes in the local time of the observations due to the orbital drift of the NOAA satellites. We investigate the use of OLR in the ERA5 reanalysis to estimate the diurnal variation. The developed approach proves to be valuable to model the diurnal change in OLR due to day/night time warming/cooling over clear land. Finally, the resulting monthly mean AVHRR OLR product is intercompared with the CERES monthly mean product. For a typical configuration with one morning and one afternoon AVHRR observation, the Root Mean Square (RMS) difference with CERES monthly mean OLR is about 2 Wm−2 at 1° × 1° resolution. We quantify the degradation of the OLR product when only one AVHRR instrument is available (as is the case for some periods in the 1980s) and also the improvement when more instruments are available (e.g., using METOP-A, NOAA-15, NOAA-18, and NOAA-19 in 2012). The degradation of the OLR product from AVHRR/1 instruments is also quantified, which is done by “masking” the Channel 5 observations.

scholarly journals Can IASI be used to simulate the total spectrum of outgoing longwave radiation?

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 18421-18459
Author(s):  
E. C. Turner ◽  
H.-T. Lee ◽  
S. F. B. Tett
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Far Infrared ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Relative Difference ◽  
High Resolution Spectrum ◽  
Negative Results ◽  
Mean Differences

Abstract. A new method of deriving high-resolution top-of-atmosphere spectral radiances over the entire outgoing longwave spectrum of the Earth is presented. Correlations between selected channels of the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interfermeter (IASI) on the MetOp-A satellite and simulated unobserved wavelengths in the far infrared are used to estimate radiances between 25.25–644.75 cm−1 at 0.5 cm−1 intervals. The same method is used in the 2760–3000 cm−1 region. Total integrated all-sky radiances are validated with broadband measurements from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument on the Terra and Aqua satellites at simultaneous nadir overpasses, revealing mean differences that are 0.3 W m−2 sr−1 (0.5% relative difference) lower for IASI relative to CERES with significantly lower biases in nighttime – only scenes. Averaged global data over a single month produces mean differences of about 1 W m−2 sr−1 in both the all and the clear-sky (1.2% relative difference). The new high – resolution spectrum is presented for global mean all and clear skies where the far infrared is shown to contribute 47 and 44% to the total OLR respectively, which is consistent with previous estimates. In terms of spectral cloud radiative forcing, the FIR contributes 19% and in some subtropical instances appears to be negative, results that would go un-observed with a traditional broadband analysis.

Validation of Clear-Sky Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) Longwave Radiation Product

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Zeng ◽  
Jie Cheng ◽  
Feng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Global Land

&lt;p&gt;Surface longwave (LW) radiation plays an important rolein global climatic change, which is consist of surface longwave upward radiation (LWUP), surface longwave downward radiation (LWDN) and surface longwave net radiation (LWNR). Numerous studies have been carried out to estimate LWUP or LWDN from remote sensing data, and several satellite LW radiation products have been released, such as the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project&amp;#8208;Flux Data (ISCCP&amp;#8208;FD), the Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment&amp;#8208;Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX&amp;#8208;SRB) and the Clouds and the Earth&amp;#8217;s Radiant Energy System&amp;#8208;Gridded Radiative Fluxes and Clouds (CERES&amp;#8208;FSW). But these products share the common features of coarse spatial resolutions (100-280 km) and lower validation accuracy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Under such circumstance, we developed the methods of estimating long-term high spatial resolution all sky&amp;#160; instantaneous LW radiation, and produced the corresponding products from MODIS data from 2000 through 2018 (Terra and Aqua), named as Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) Longwave Radiation product, which can be free freely downloaded from the website (http://glass.umd.edu/Download.html).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this article, ground measurements collected from 141 sites in six independent networks (AmerciFlux, AsiaFlux, BSRN, CEOP, HiWATER-MUSOEXE and TIPEX-III) are used to evaluate the clear-sky GLASS LW radiation products at global scale. The bias and RMSE is -4.33 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2 &lt;/sup&gt;and 18.15 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2 &lt;/sup&gt;for LWUP, -3.77 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2 &lt;/sup&gt;and 26.94 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; for LWDN, and 0.70 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2 &lt;/sup&gt;and 26.70 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; for LWNR, respectively. Compared with validation results of the above mentioned three LW radiation products, the overall accuracy of GLASS LW radiation product is much better. We will continue to improve the retrieval algorithms and update the products accordingly.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Decadal Changes of Earth’s Outgoing Longwave Radiation

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Dewitte ◽  
Nicolas Clerbaux
Keyword(s):  
Outgoing Longwave Radiation ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Earth Radiation Budget ◽  
Earth Radiation

The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) at the top of the atmosphere quantifies how the earth gains energy from the sun and loses energy to space. Its monitoring is of fundamental importance for understanding ongoing climate change. In this paper, decadal changes of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) as measured by the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System from 2000 to 2018, the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment from 1985 to 1998, and the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder from 1985 to 2018 are analysed. The OLR has been rising since 1985, and correlates well with the rising global temperature. An observational estimate of the derivative of the OLR with respect to temperature of 2.93 +/− 0.3 W/m 2 K is obtained. The regional patterns of the observed OLR change from 1985–2000 to 2001–2017 show a warming pattern in the Northern Hemisphere in particular in the Arctic, as well as tropical cloudiness changes related to a strengthening of La Niña.

scholarly journals Developing a monthly albedo change radiative forcing kernel from satellite climatologies of Earth's shortwave radiation budget: CACK v1.0

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan M. Bright ◽  
Thomas L. O'Halloran
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Attractive Alternative ◽  
Albedo Change ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Atmospheric State

Abstract. Due to the potential for land use/land cover change (LULCC) to alter surface albedo, there is need within the LULCC science community for simple and transparent tools for predicting radiative forcings (dF) from surface albedo changes (da). To that end, the radiative kernel technique – developed by the climate modeling community to diagnose internal feedbacks within general circulation models (GCMs) – has been adopted by the LULCC science community as a tool to perform offline dF calculations for da. However, the GCM codes are not readily transparent and the atmospheric state variables used as model input are limited to single years, thus being sensitive to anomalous weather conditions that may have occurred in those simulated years. Observation-based kernels founded on longer-term climatologies of Earth's atmospheric state offer an attractive alternative to GCM-based kernels and could be updated annually at relatively low costs. Here, we evaluate simplified models of shortwave radiative transfer as candidates for an albedo change kernel founded on the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balance and Filled (EBAF) products. We find that a new, simple model supported by statistical analyses gives remarkable agreement when benchmarked to the mean of four GCM kernels and to two GCM kernels following emulation with their own boundary fluxes as input. Our findings lend support to its candidacy as a satellite-based alternative to GCM kernels and to its application in land-climate studies.

scholarly journals Developing Clear-Sky Flux Products for the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1361-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Futyan ◽  
J. E. Russell
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Sampling Errors ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Earth Radiation Budget ◽  
Earth Radiation

Abstract This paper describes the planned processing of monthly mean and monthly mean diurnal cycle flux products for the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) experiment. The use of higher-spatial-resolution flux estimates based on multichannel narrowband imager data to improve clear-sky sampling is investigated. Significant improvements in temporal sampling are found, leading to reduced temporal sampling errors and less dependence on diurnal models for the monthly mean products. The reduction in temporal sampling errors is found to outweigh any spatial sampling errors that are introduced. The resulting flux estimates are used to develop an improved version of the half-sine model that is used for the diurnal interpolation of clear-sky longwave fluxes over land in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) missions. Maximum outgoing longwave radiation occurs from 45 min to 1.5 h after local noon for most of the GERB field of view. Use of the ERBE half-sine model for interpolation therefore results in significant distortion of the diurnal cycle shape. The model that is proposed here provides a well-constrained fit to the true diurnal shape, even for limited clear-sky sampling, making it suitable for use in the processing of both GERB and CERES second-generation monthly mean clear-sky data products.

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