Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones in Present and Future Climate

Abstract The Mediterranean has been identified as one of the most responsive regions to climate change. It has been conjectured that one of the effects of a warmer climate could be to make the Mediterranean Sea prone to the formation of hurricanes. Already in the present climate regime, however, a few of the numerous low pressure systems that form in the area develop a dynamical evolution similar to the one of tropical cyclones. Even if their spatial extent is generally smaller and the life cycle shorter compared to tropical cyclones, such storms produce severe damage on the highly populated coastal areas surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. This study, based on the analysis of individual realistically simulated storms in homogeneous long-term and high-resolution data from multiple climate change scenarios, shows that the projected effect of climate change on Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones is decreased frequency and a tendency toward a moderate increase of intensity.

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Mediterranean Sea climatic indices: monitoring long term variability and climate changes

10.5194/essd-2018-51 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Athanasia Iona ◽

Athanasios Theodorou ◽

Sarantis Sofianos ◽

Sylvain Watelet ◽

Charles Troupin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Time Series ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Salt Content ◽

Climatic Indices ◽

In Situ Observations ◽

The Mediterranean

Abstract. We present a new product composed of a set of thermohaline climatic indices from 1950 to 2015 for the Mediterranean Sea such as decadal temperature and salinity anomalies, their mean values over selected depths, decadal ocean heat and salt content anomalies at selected depth layers as well as their long times series. It is produced from a new high-resolution climatology of temperature and salinity on a 1/8° regular grid based on historical high quality in situ observations. Ocean heat and salt content differences between 1980–2015 and 1950–1979 are compared for evaluation of the climate shift in the Mediterranean Sea. The spatial patterns of heat and salt content shifts demonstrate in greater detail than ever before that the climate changes differently in the several regions of the basin. Long time series of heat and salt content for the period 1950 to 2015 are also provided which indicate that in the Mediterranean Sea there is a net mean volume warming and salting since 1950 with acceleration during the last two decades. The time series also show that the ocean heat content seems to fluctuate on a cycle of about 40 years and seems to follow the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate cycle indicating that the natural large scale atmospheric variability could be superimposed on to the warming trend. This product is an observations-based estimation of the Mediterranean climatic indices. It relies solely on spatially interpolated data produced from in-situ observations averaged over decades in order to smooth the decadal variability and reveal the long term trends with more accuracy. It can provide a valuable contribution to the modellers' community, next to the satellite-based products and serve as a baseline for the evaluation of climate-change model simulations contributing thus to a better understanding of the complex response of the Mediterranean Sea to the ongoing global climate change. The product is available here: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1210100.

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Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2007gl029977 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 34 (14) ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

M. A. Gaertner ◽

D. Jacob ◽

V. Gil ◽

M. Domínguez ◽

E. Padorno ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

The Mediterranean

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Long term changes in the deep sea: examples from two Mediterranean Channels

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4499 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Katrin Schroeder ◽

Sana Ben Ismail ◽

Jacopo Chiggiato ◽

Mireno Borghini ◽

Stefania Sparnocchia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Deep Sea ◽

Deep Ocean ◽

Western Mediterranean ◽

Global Ocean ◽

Marginal Sea ◽

The Mediterranean

Climate change is one of the key topics of our century. The study of processes related to climate change in the atmosphere, the open ocean, the deep sea or even in shallow coastal waters require sustained long-term observations, often deploying sophisticated and expensive equipment. According to the Deep-Ocean Observing Strategy (DOOS, http://deepoceanobserving.org/), the deep ocean (below 200 m water depth) is the least observed, but largest habitat on our planet by volume and area. With more than 90% of anthropogenic heat imbalance absorbed by the oceans, monitoring long-term changes of its heat content, and over its full depth, is essential to quantify the planetary heat budget.The Mediterranean Sea is a mid-latitude marginal sea, particularly responsive to climate change as reported by recent studies. Straits and channels divide it into several sub-basins and the continuous monitoring of these choke points allows to intercept different water masses, and thus to document how they changed over time. This monitoring, in many cases, is done under the umbrella of the CIESM Hydrochanges program (http://www.ciesm.org/marine/programs/hydrochanges.htm). Here we report the long-term time series of physical data collected in two of these choke points: the Sardinia Channel (1900 m) and the Sicily Channel (400 m).The Sardinia Channel allows the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) to enter the Tyrrhenian Sea (depths > 3000 m), connecting it with the Algerian Sea (depths > 2500 m). This water mass has experienced a significant increase of heat and salt content over the past decades, due both to a gradual process and to and abrupt event, called Western Mediterranean Transition (WMT). The monitoring at the sill (1900 m) of the Sardinia Channel since 2003 shows this very clearly, and the interannual trends are significantly stronger than the global average trends.The Sicily Channel (sill at 400 m) separates the Mediterranean in two main basins, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Western Mediterranean Sea. Here the thermohaline properties of the Intermediate Water (IW) are monitored since 1993, showing increasing temperature and salinity trends at least one order of magnitude stronger than those observed at intermediate depths in the global ocean.We investigate the causes of the observed trends and in particular discuss the role of a changing climate over the Mediterranean, especially in the eastern basin, where the IW is formed. The long-term records in two Mediterranean channels reveal how fast the response to climate change can be in a marginal sea compared to the global ocean, and demonstrates the essential role of long time series in the ocean.

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Investigating uncertainties in zooplankton composition shifts under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Sea

Ecography ◽

10.1111/ecog.02434 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 41 (2) ◽

pp. 345-360 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Fabio Benedetti ◽

François Guilhaumon ◽

Fanny Adloff ◽

Sakina-Dorothée Ayata

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The Mediterranean

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Updating the occurrences of Pterois miles in the Mediterranean Sea, with considerations on thermal boundaries and future range expansion

Mediterranean Marine Science ◽

10.12681/mms.21845 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

pp. 62

Author(s):

CHARALAMPOS DIMITRIADIS ◽

MARIKA GALANIDI ◽

ARGYRO ZENETOS ◽

MARIA CORSINI-FOKA ◽

IOANNIS GIOVOS ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Range Expansion ◽

Aegean Sea ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Limiting Factor ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Pterois Miles ◽

Levantine Sea ◽

The Mediterranean

Here we present an update of the Mediterranean distribution of the lionfish Pterois miles, based on a comprehensive list of geo-referenced occurrences up to October 2019. New data were provided by multiple reporting tools and citizen science initiatives. Our findings suggest that well established populations of P. miles exist in the Levantine Sea, in the southern and central Aegean Sea, as well as in the Greek Ionian Sea, whilst so far, only a few individuals were reported from Tunisia and southern Sicily (Italy). We also argue about the future expansion of this invasive species in the Mediterranean region and about the role of climate change by projecting the limits of winter isotherms under different climate change scenarios. Under the assumption that the mean winter sea surface temperature is the main limiting factor of the range expansion of the species (i.e. 15.3oC winter isotherm), P. miles could substantially expand in the Mediterranean Sea, except the coolest northernmost regions, under future climatic scenarios. These results were discussed in comparison to published outcomes of species distribution modelling.

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Risk of Tropical Cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in a Climate Change Scenario

Hurricanes and Climate Change ◽

10.1007/978-0-387-09410-6_13 ◽

2008 ◽

pp. 235-250 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Miguel Angel Gaertner ◽

Enrique Sánchez ◽

Marta Domínguez ◽

Victoria Gil ◽

Miguel Angel Gaertner

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Change Scenario ◽

The Mediterranean

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Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-021-05812-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alba de la Vara ◽

William Cabos ◽

Dmitry V. Sein ◽

Claas Teichmann ◽

Daniela Jacob

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Large Scale ◽

Regional Distribution ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

The North ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

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Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148515 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 148515

Author(s):

Eulalia Gómez Martín ◽

María Máñez Costa ◽

Sabine Egerer ◽

Uwe Schneider

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

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Linking climate, gross primary productivity, and site index across forests of the western United States

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x11-086 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 41 (8) ◽

pp. 1710-1721 ◽

Cited By ~ 53

Author(s):

Aaron R. Weiskittel ◽

Nicholas L. Crookston ◽

Philip J. Radtke

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Growth Models ◽

Gross Primary Production ◽

Site Index ◽

Nonparametric Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Geographic Scale ◽

Potential Productivity ◽

The One ◽

The Relationship

Assessing forest productivity is important for developing effective management regimes and predicting future growth. Despite some important limitations, the most common means for quantifying forest stand-level potential productivity is site index (SI). Another measure of productivity is gross primary production (GPP). In this paper, SI is compared with GPP estimates obtained from 3-PG and NASA’s MODIS satellite. Models were constructed that predict SI and both measures of GPP from climate variables. Results indicated that a nonparametric model with two climate-related predictor variables explained over 68% and 76% of the variation in SI and GPP, respectively. The relationship between GPP and SI was limited (R2 of 36%–56%), while the relationship between GPP and climate (R2 of 76%–91%) was stronger than the one between SI and climate (R2 of 68%–78%). The developed SI model was used to predict SI under varying expected climate change scenarios. The predominant trend was an increase of 0–5 m in SI, with some sites experiencing reductions of up to 10 m. The developed model can predict SI across a broad geographic scale and into the future, which statistical growth models can use to represent the expected effects of climate change more effectively.

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Climate Change, Humanitarian Risks, and Social-Political (In)stability Along the Gulf of Aden: Expert Elicitation for the Case of Somalia and Yemen

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7575 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Laurent Lambert ◽

Mahmood Almehdhar ◽

Mustafa Haji

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Political Stability ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Expert Elicitation ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Gulf Of Aden ◽

The World ◽

Environmental Events

Abstract: Changes in the global oceanic system have already negatively affected the world&#8217;s marine life and the livelihoods of many coastal communities across the world, including in the Middle East' and Eastern Africa's Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Coastal communities in Somalia and Yemen for instance, have been particularly affected by extreme environmental events (EEEs), with an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the past 20 years. Using expert elicitation as a method to generate data to assess and quantify a specific issue in the absence of sufficient and/or reliable data, the authors interviewed selected specialists in or from Somalia and Yemen, from diverse fields of expertise related to climate change, extreme environmental events, disaster risk reduction, and humanitarian affairs. Ten experts followed the elicitation protocol and answered a specific series of questions in order to better quantify the expectable mid-to-long-term climatic and humanitarian levels of risks, impacts, and consequences that climate change and related issues (e.g., sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and sea surge) may generate in coastal areas along the Gulf of Aden's coastal cities of Aden and Bossaso, in Yemen and Somalia, respectively.The findings indicate that there is cause for significant concern as climate change is assessed by all interviewees - irrespective of their background -, as very likely to hold a negative to a devastating impact on (fresh) water security, food security, public health, social conflicts, population displacement, and eventually political stability; and to strongly worsen the humanitarian situations in Somalia and Yemen, both in the medium-term (i.e., 2020-2050) and the long-term (i.e., 2020-2100). The authors call on the scientific community to further research the issue of climate change in the understudied coastal areas of the Gulf of Aden, and on the international community to pro-actively and urgently help the local populations and relevant authorities to rapidly and strongly build up their adaptation capacities, especially in the niche of coastal EEEs.

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