Climate Change, Humanitarian Risks, and Social-Political (In)stability Along the Gulf of Aden: Expert Elicitation for the Case of Somalia and Yemen

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Lambert ◽  
Mahmood Almehdhar ◽  
Mustafa Haji
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Gulf Of Aden ◽  
The World ◽  
Environmental Events

<p><strong>Abstract</strong>: Changes in the global oceanic system have already negatively affected the world’s marine life and the livelihoods of many coastal communities across the world, including in the Middle East' and Eastern Africa's Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Coastal communities in Somalia and Yemen for instance, have been particularly affected by extreme environmental events (EEEs), with an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the past 20 years. Using expert elicitation as a method to generate data to assess and quantify a specific issue in the absence of sufficient and/or reliable data, the authors interviewed selected specialists in or from Somalia and Yemen, from diverse fields of expertise related to climate change, extreme environmental events, disaster risk reduction, and humanitarian affairs. Ten experts followed the elicitation protocol and answered a specific series of questions in order to better quantify the expectable mid-to-long-term climatic and humanitarian levels of risks, impacts, and consequences that climate change and related issues (e.g., sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and sea surge) may generate in coastal areas along the Gulf of Aden's coastal cities of Aden and Bossaso, in Yemen and Somalia, respectively.</p><p>The findings indicate that there is cause for significant concern as climate change is assessed by all interviewees - irrespective of their background -, as very likely to hold a negative to a devastating impact on (fresh) water security, food security, public health, social conflicts, population displacement, and eventually political stability; and to strongly worsen the humanitarian situations in Somalia and Yemen, both in the medium-term (i.e., 2020-2050) and the long-term (i.e., 2020-2100). The authors call on the scientific community to further research the issue of climate change in the understudied coastal areas of the Gulf of Aden, and on the international community to pro-actively and urgently help the local populations and relevant authorities to rapidly and strongly build up their adaptation capacities, especially in the niche of coastal EEEs.</p>

scholarly journals BEACH PLANFORM EQUILIBRIUM, APPLICATION AND METHODOLOGIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCY CONSIDERATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Mohamed Dabees
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Equilibrium Conditions ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Open Coast ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Water Elevations ◽  
Added Uncertainty ◽  
Evaluation Parameters

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) present a challenge and added uncertainty for managing coastal areas. Many coastal cities and developed coastal areas are assessing future vulnerabilities to SLR and developing adaptation plans for improved resiliency. Equilibrium conditions for beach planform can be critical to the long-term stability of beaches and dunes fronting coastal cities. In many cases, resiliency and adaptation programs for beachfront areas are based on assumptions of evaluating scenarios of higher water elevations and hydrodynamic forcing under present time topographic and bathymetric conditions. These evaluation parameters suggest that the coastline and existing morphological features are near equilibrium condition and are expected to remain near similar equilibrium over the SLR scenarios under consideration. Such assumptions may be limited to open coast conditions where the beach and the developed coastal planform follows theoretical open coast conditions or constant equilibrium planform. This paper discusses factors influencing beach planform along the Florida Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines and proposes conceptual methodologies in various applications.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/gWsbmi6VIo0

scholarly journals Long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas

2009 ◽  
Vol 45 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Langousis ◽  
Daniele Veneziano
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Coastal Areas

TO THE ISSUE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL LEGAL COOPERATION OF STATES IN THE FIELD OF THE RATIONAL USE AND PROTECTION OF RESOURCES OF THE WORLD OCEAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-161
Author(s):  
Михаил Елизаров
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Legal Basis ◽  
Rational Use ◽  
Global Consensus ◽  
The World ◽  
Acute Challenge

Over the decades, attempts were made to elaborate a legally binding single document on ocean resource management that would be acceptable to all countries. The culmination of this process was the adoption of the 1982 UN Convention on the law of sea. Since its entry into force, the Convention has become an important legal basis for ensuring the rational use of the world's ocean resources and their long-term conservation on behalf of future generations. At the same time, there remains the very acute challenge associated with finding a balance between reaching a global consensus on issues that are common to all and identifying topics that can be addressed and resolved by leaders at the global level. As humankind continues to postpone the adoption of urgent measures to prevent the effects of climate change, the environment deteriorates, while measures to mitigate these effects get more expensive and complex.

Non-linear, long-term evolution of sea surface temperature across the World Ocean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Martinez-Lopez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Second Derivative ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
The World ◽  
Non Linear

<p>Sea surface temperature (SST) is the only oceanic parameter on which depend heat fluxes between ocean and atmosphere and, therefore, SST is one of the key factors that influence climate and its variability. Over the twentieth century, SSTs have significantly increased around the global ocean, warming that has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, although it is not yet clear how much of it is related to natural causes and how much is due to human activities. A considerable part of available literature regarding climate change has been built based on the global or hemispheric analysis of surface temperature trends. There are, however, some key open questions that need to be answered and for this task estimates of long-term SST trend patterns represent a source of valuable information. Unfortunately, long-term SST trend patterns have large uncertainties and although SST constitutes one of the most-measured ocean variables of our historic records, their poor spatial and temporal sampling, as well as inhomogeneous measurements technics, hinder an accurate determination of long-term SST trends, which increases their uncertainty and, therefore, limit their physical interpretation as well as their use in the verification of climate simulations.<br>Most of the long-term SST trend patterns have been built using linear techniques, which are very usefull when they are used to extract information of measurements satisfying two key assumptions: linearity and stationarity. The global warming resulting of our economic activities, however, affect the state of the World Ocean and the atmosphere inducing changes in the climate that may result in oscillatory modes of variability of different frequencies, which may undergo non-stationary and non-linear evolutions. In this work, we construct long-term SST trend patterns by using non-linear techniques to extract non-linear, long-term trends in each grid-point of two available global SST datasets: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) and from the Hadley Centre sea ice and SST (HadISST). The used non-linear technique makes a good job even if the SST data are non-linear and non-stationary. Additionally, the nonlinearity of the extracted trends allows the use of the first and second derivative to get more information about the global, long-term evolution of the SST fields, favoring thus a deeper understanding and interpretation of the observed changes in SST. Particularly, our results clearly show, in both ERSST and HadISST datasets, the non-uniform warming observed in the tropical Pacific, which seems to be related to the enhanced vertical heat flux in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the strengthening of the warm pool in the western Pacific. By using the second derivative of the nonlinear SST trends, emerges an interesting pattern delimiting several zones in the Pacific Ocean which have been responded in a different way to the impose warming of the last century.</p>

Threats to the running water ecosystems of the world

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Björn Malmqvist ◽  
Simon Rundle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Running Waters ◽  
Running Water ◽  
Lotic Systems ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Water Ecosystems

Running waters are perhaps the most impacted ecosystem on the planet as they have been the focus for human settlement and are heavily exploited for water supplies, irrigation, electricity generation, and waste disposal. Lotic systems also have an intimate contact with their catchments and so land-use alterations affect them directly. Here long-term trends in the factors that currently impact running waters are reviewed with the aim of predicting what the main threats to rivers will be in the year 2025. The main ultimate factors forcing change in running waters (ecosystem destruction, physical habitat and water chemistry alteration, and the direct addition or removal of species) stem from proximate influences from urbanization, industry, land-use change and water-course alterations. Any one river is likely to be subjected to several types of impact, and the management of impacts on lotic systems is complicated by numerous links between different forms of anthropogenic effect. Long-term trends for different impacts vary. Concentrations of chemical pollutants such as toxins and nutrients have increased in rivers in developed countries over the past century, with recent reductions for some pollutants (e.g. metals, organic toxicants, acidification), and continued increases in others (e.g. nutrients); there are no long-term chemical data for developing countries. Dam construction increased rapidly during the twentieth century, peaking in the 1970s, and the number of reservoirs has stabilized since this time, whereas the transfer of exotic species between lotic systems continues to increase. Hence, there have been some success stories in the attempts to reduce the impacts from anthropogenic impacts in developed nations. Improvements in the pH status of running waters should continue with lower sulphurous emissions, although emissions of nitrous oxides are set to continue under current legislation and will continue to contribute to acidification and nutrient loadings. Climate change also will impact running waters through alterations in hydrology and thermal regimes, although precise predictions are problematic; effects are likely to vary between regions and to operate alongside rather than override those from other impacts. Effects from climate change may be more extreme over longer time scales (>50 years). The overriding pressure on running water ecosystems up to 2025 will stem from the predicted increase in the human population, with concomitant increases in urban development, industry, agricultural activities and water abstraction, diversion and damming. Future degradation could be substantial and rapid (c. 10 years) and will be concentrated in those areas of the world where resources for conservation are most limited and knowledge of lotic ecosystems most incomplete; damage will centre on lowland rivers, which are also relatively poorly studied. Changes in management practices and public awareness do appear to be benefiting running water ecosystems in developed countries, and could underpin conservation strategies in developing countries if they were implemented in a relevant way.

scholarly journals Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones in Present and Future Climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (19) ◽  
pp. 7493-7501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leone Cavicchia ◽  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Silvio Gualdi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Dynamical Evolution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The One

Abstract The Mediterranean has been identified as one of the most responsive regions to climate change. It has been conjectured that one of the effects of a warmer climate could be to make the Mediterranean Sea prone to the formation of hurricanes. Already in the present climate regime, however, a few of the numerous low pressure systems that form in the area develop a dynamical evolution similar to the one of tropical cyclones. Even if their spatial extent is generally smaller and the life cycle shorter compared to tropical cyclones, such storms produce severe damage on the highly populated coastal areas surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. This study, based on the analysis of individual realistically simulated storms in homogeneous long-term and high-resolution data from multiple climate change scenarios, shows that the projected effect of climate change on Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones is decreased frequency and a tendency toward a moderate increase of intensity.

scholarly journals Temporally Generalizable Land Cover Classification: A Recurrent Convolutional Neural Network Unveils Major Coastal Change through Time

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 3953
Author(s):  
Patrick Clifton Gray ◽  
Diego F. Chamorro ◽  
Justin T. Ridge ◽  
Hannah Rae Kerner ◽  
Emily A. Ury ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Validation Data

The ability to accurately classify land cover in periods before appropriate training and validation data exist is a critical step towards understanding subtle long-term impacts of climate change. These trends cannot be properly understood and distinguished from individual disturbance events or decadal cycles using only a decade or less of data. Understanding these long-term changes in low lying coastal areas, home to a huge proportion of the global population, is of particular importance. Relatively simple deep learning models that extract representative spatiotemporal patterns can lead to major improvements in temporal generalizability. To provide insight into major changes in low lying coastal areas, our study (1) developed a recurrent convolutional neural network that incorporates spectral, spatial, and temporal contexts for predicting land cover class, (2) evaluated this model across time and space and compared this model to conventional Random Forest and Support Vector Machine methods as well as other deep learning approaches, and (3) applied this model to classify land cover across 20 years of Landsat 5 data in the low-lying coastal plain of North Carolina, USA. We observed striking changes related to sea level rise that support evidence on a smaller scale of agricultural land and forests transitioning into wetlands and “ghost forests”. This work demonstrates that recurrent convolutional neural networks should be considered when a model is needed that can generalize across time and that they can help uncover important trends necessary for understanding and responding to climate change in vulnerable coastal regions.

scholarly journals China and Climate Change Governance: A Golden Opportunity

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Barry Buzan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Climate Governance ◽  
Policy Adjustment ◽  
The World ◽  
Golden Opportunity ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Climate Crisis

Climate change is a threat to all of humankind, yet there is still a leadership vacuum on climate governance. At the same time, the deepening climate crisis also presents a golden opportunity for Beijing to assume the role of a global leader. China has the capacity to do it in a way that the United States, Russia, India, and the European Union do not. Taking swift climate action is in Beijing’s interest. Greater contributions to climate governance will certainly help advance China’s long-term political interest in both raising its political status and demonstrating the claimed superiority of its system of government. Positive rhetoric and robust action by China are likely to have a disproportionate effect on the rest of the world. Policy adjustment and implementation by Beijing will bring benefits to the rest of the world. Climate policy options that Beijing may take in the future are not mutually exclusive. The policy shift on climate change could also be attached more firmly to the idea of sustainable development as a defining factor of China’s approach to tackling the climate change threat.

Climate Change Adaptation in New Zealand

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Schneider ◽  
Bruce Glavovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Long Term Study ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
The Face

Coastal hazard risk is compounded by climate change. The promise and prospects of adaptation to escalating coastal hazard risk is fraught, even in a country like New Zealand that has laudable provisions for local authorities to be proactive in adapting to climate change. Continuing property development in some low-lying coastal areas is resulting in contestation and maladaptation. The resistance of some local authorities to do the inevitable and make long-term planning decisions in the face of amplifying risk can be linked to adaptation barriers. What can be done to overcome barriers and facilitate adaptation? Is transformation of the current mismatch between short-term planning and development aspirations, long-term societal goals, dynamic coastal processes and well-intended legislation and policy goals even possible? What can we learn from adaptation failures? In the face of compelling evidence and an enabling institutional framework, why is it that some coastal communities fail to prepare for the future? We shed light on such questions based on a long-term study of experience in New Zealand’s Coromandel Peninsula. We focus on the overarching question: Why is adaptation so challenging; and why are some coastal communities locked- into maladaptive pathways? We focus on the influence of a short-term decision-making focus of the problem of a low level of understanding and, following from this, the prioritization of protective works to combat erosion. Further, we draw attention to a major storm impact and the failure to turn this window of opportunity to a shift away from business as usual. Through the exploration of key stakeholder insights, the findings from the literature are reinforced and put into local context thus making the otherwise abstract barriers locally relevant. Matching and aligning adaptation theory with local reality can assist in advancing inquiry and policy practice to govern complex adaptation challenges.

Climate Change – Livelihood – Migration Nexus: A Case Study from Sundarbans, India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malay Pramanik ◽  
Sylvia Szabo ◽  
Indrajit Pal ◽  
Parmeshwar Udmale
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Poor People ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Coastal Belt ◽  
The Sundarbans ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p><strong>Abstract:</strong></p><p>Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century and is likely to increase migration of the marginal communities from the coastal areas throughout the world. It is projected that 200 million people worldwide will be climate refugees by 2050. Owing to high exposure and poor adaptive capacity, low-lying coastal areas and islands in developing countries are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to understand how climate change is affecting the livelihoods, in turn, driving the migration in these regions.</p><p>The present study focuses on the Sundarbans region located along the coastal belt of West Bengal (India) as a part of Ganga-Brahmaputra mega delta. It is also a home of 4.7 million poor people, who earn below US$10 per month. The region is an exceedingly flat, low-lying, alluvial plain highly exposed to sea level rise, storm surge, tornedoes, cyclonic activity, riverbank erosion, salinization and subsequent mangrove depletion. Due to the climatic hazards, the basic livelihoods are at risk and their strategies towards livelihood collection remains largely unknown. Therefore, the present study provides insights into the nexus among climate stimuli, livelihood risks, and households’ strategies in the region, with special emphasize on climate change.</p><p>The study is based on field survey of 150 respondents representing migrant and non-migrant coastal communities from Gosaba, Basanti and Hingalganj block using structured questionnaires. More than 70% of respondents stated that livelihood risks mainly from climate change impacts as the major reason for inter-state migration, which is the main source of income supporting livelihood in the region. This environmental displacement in the Sundarbans region symbolizes the failure of adaptation to mitigate climate change induced sea level rise increasing the exposure to coastal flooding and storm surges, salinization, and erosion.  This study discusses potential mitigation strategies to combat the impacts of climate change on livelihoods of the coastal communities in the region.</p>

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