scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Impact of Air-Sea Coupling on the Climate Change Signal Over The Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALBA DE LA VARA ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this work we use a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP is a well suited location for this study as high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model shows the added value of regionalization in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals The climate change signal in the Mediterranean Sea in a regionally coupled ocean-atmosphere model

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Parras-Berrocal ◽  
Ruben Vazquez ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry Sein ◽  
Rafael Mañanes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Ocean Layer ◽  
High Horizontal Resolution ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. We assess the role of ocean feedbacks in the simulation of the present climate and on the downscaled climate change signal in the Mediterranean Sea with the regionally coupled model REMO-OASIS-MPIOM (ROM). The ROM oceanic component is global with regionally high horizontal resolution in the Mediterranean Sea. In our setup the Atlantic and Black Sea circulations are simulated explicitly. Simulations forced by ERA-Interim show a good representation of the present Mediterranean climate. Our analysis of the RCP8.5 scenario driven by MPI-ESM shows that the Mediterranean waters will be warmer and saltier across most of the basin by the end of the century. In the upper ocean layer temperature is projected to have a mean increase of 2.73 °C, while the mean salinity increases by 0.17 psu, presenting a decreasing trend in the Western Mediterranean, opposite to the rest of the basin. The warming initially takes place at the surface and propagates gradually to the deeper layers.

Trade and stowaways: molecular evidence for human-mediated translocation of eastern skinks into the western Mediterranean

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-62
Author(s):  
Josep Francesc Bisbal-Chinesta ◽  
Karin Tamar ◽  
Ángel Gálvez ◽  
Luís Albero ◽  
Pablo Vicent-Castelló ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Molecular Evidence ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Human Movements ◽  
Allochthonous Species ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Chalcides Ocellatus ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Human movements in the regions surrounding the Mediterranean Sea have caused a great impact in the composition of terrestrial fauna due to the introductions of several allochthonous species, intentionally or not. Reptiles are one of the groups where this anthropic impact is most evident, owing to the extensive intra-Mediterranean dispersals of recent chronologies. Chalcides ocellatus is a widespread skink with a natural distribution that covers almost the entire Mediterranean Basin. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain its origin: natural dispersions and human translocations. Previous molecular data suggest the occurrence of a recent dispersal phenomenon across the Mediterranean Sea. In this study we present the first record of this species in the Iberian Peninsula, in Serra del Molar (South-east Spain). We combined molecular analyses and archaeological records to study the origin of this population. The molecular results indicate that the population is phylogenetically closely related to specimens from north-eastern Egypt and southern Red Sea. We suggest that the species arrived at the Iberian Peninsula most likely through human-mediated dispersal by using the trade routes. Between the Iron to Middle Ages, even now, the region surrounding Serra del Molar has been the destination of human groups and commercial goods of Egyptian origins, in which Chalcides ocellatus could have arrived as stowaways. The regional geomorphological evolution would have restricted its expansion out of Serra del Molar. These findings provide new data about the impact of human movements on faunal introductions and present new information relating to mechanisms of long-distance translocations.

scholarly journals New Evidence of Mediterranean Climate Change and Variability from Sea Surface Temperature Observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Pisano ◽  
Salvatore Marullo ◽  
Vincenzo Artale ◽  
Federico Falcini ◽  
Chunxue Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Western Basin ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Northeastern Atlantic

Estimating long-term modifications of the sea surface temperature (SST) is crucial for evaluating the current state of the oceans and to correctly assess the impact of climate change at regional scales. In this work, we analyze SST variations within the Mediterranean Sea and the adjacent Northeastern Atlantic box (west of the Strait of Gibraltar) over the last 37 years, by using a satellite-based dataset from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). We found a mean warming trend of 0.041 ± 0.006 ∘ C/year over the whole Mediterranean Sea from 1982 to 2018. The trend has an uneven spatial pattern, with values increasing from 0.036 ± 0.006 ∘ C/year in the western basin to 0.048 ± 0.006 ∘ C/year in the Levantine–Aegean basin. The Northeastern Atlantic box and the Mediterranean show a similar trend until the late 1990s. Afterwards, the Mediterranean SST continues to increase, whereas the Northeastern Atlantic box shows no significant trend, until ~2015. The observed change in the Mediterranean Sea affects not only the mean trend but also the amplitude of the Mediterranean seasonal signal, with consistent relative increase and decrease of summer and winter mean values, respectively, over the period considered. The analysis of SST changes occurred during the “satellite era” is further complemented by reconstructions also based on direct in situ SST measurements, i.e., the Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), which go back to the 19th century. The analysis of these longer time series, covering the last 165 years, indicates that the increasing Mediterranean trend, observed during the CMEMS operational period, is consistent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as it closely follows the last increasing period of AMO. This coincidence occurs at least until 2007, when the apparent onset of the decreasing phase of AMO is not seen in the Mediterranean SST evolution.

Climate change and warm-water species at the north-western boundary of the Mediterranean Sea

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 897-909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeriano Parravicini ◽  
Luisa Mangialajo ◽  
Laure Mousseau ◽  
Andrea Peirano ◽  
Carla Morri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Warm Water ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Warm Water Species ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
North Western ◽  
Water Species

scholarly journals The CIRCE Simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Gualdi ◽  
S. Somot ◽  
L. Li ◽  
V. Artale ◽  
M. Adani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Steric Sea Level ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Scenario Period ◽  
The Mediterranean

In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to lose more water through its surface than in the past. Overall, these results are consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such as the Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects (PRUDENCE), Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES), and phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The agreement suggests that these findings are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations. Finally, the models produce a 2021–50 mean steric sea level rise that ranges between +7 and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.

A sub-regional approach for the analysis of atmospheric teleconnection influence on precipitation in Calabria (southern Italy)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulio Nils Caroletti ◽  
Roberto Coscarelli ◽  
Tommaso Caloiero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Eastern Zone ◽  
Teleconnection Indices ◽  
Western Zone ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation

<p>Due to the importance of precipitation as a climatic and meteorological variable, it is paramount to detect the relationships between teleconnections and precipitation at different temporal and spatial scale. In fact, large-scale systems can i) influence precipitation directly, ii) establish a favourable environment to deep moist convection, and thus extreme precipitation, but also iii) help triggering dry conditions and drought.</p><p>In this study, developed within the INDECIS EU project, the teleconnection influence on precipitation in the Calabria region has been evaluated over the 1981-2010 time period, by means of a database of 79 rain gauge stations and seven teleconnections indices. Calabria, the southernmost region of peninsular Italy, was chosen as a valuable test bed mainly because it is located in the centre of the Mediterranean region, which constitutes a hot spot for climate change. Moreover, Calabria has a high-density, long-time network of precipitation gauges, recently validated and homogenized.</p><p>Statistical relationships between teleconnection indices and precipitation are often developed through well-known correlation analyses techniques, e.g. Pearson, Spearman and Kendall, where a teleconnection index is compared to cumulated precipitation values. In this study, three types of correlation analysis were performed: i) seasonal indices vs seasonal cumulated precipitation; ii) three-month indices vs monthly cumulated precipitation; iii) monthly indices vs monthly cumulated precipitation. These analyses have been performed in five Rainfall Zones (RZs) of the study area, characterised by different climatic conditions: the North-Eastern Zone (I1), the Central-Eastern Zone (I2) and the South-Eastern Zone (I3) on the Ionian side of Calabria and the North-Western Zone (T1) and the South-Western Zone (T2) on the Tyrrhenian part.</p><p>Results showed that the Mediterranean Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are the most important large-scale contributors to the precipitation regime of Calabria. Moreover, seasonal Eastern Atlantic pattern influenced seasonal precipitation in the RZs I1 and T1; three-monthly East Atlantic/Western Russian pattern influenced monthly precipitation in the RZs I2 and T1; three-monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation influenced monthly precipitation in the RZs I3 and T1; while three-monthly El Nino-Southern Oscillation influenced monthly precipitation in the RZ T2.</p><p>Investigating changes in the response of local precipitation and teleconnections throughout the 1951-2010 and 1951-1980 time periods, a change in precipitation response to teleconnection patterns emerged, i.e., in the impact that the Mediterranean Oscillation has on the East coast precipitation (RZs I1-I3), a possible result of natural variation or climate change. In addition, these results have been compared to those obtained with the classical correlation analyses between teleconnection indices and single-station precipitation.</p><p>The approach developed for this study is a general method that, in principle, can be reproduced for any variable for any region and for every teleconnection.</p><p>Acknowledgments:</p><p>The Project INDECIS is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1806-1823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela J. Colbert ◽  
Brian J. Soden ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) is examined using a beta and advection model (BAM) to isolate the influence of changes in the large-scale steering flow from changes in genesis location. The BAM captures many of the observed changes in TC tracks due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while little change is noted for the Pacific decadal oscillation and all-India monsoon rainfall in either observations or BAM simulations. Analysis with the BAM suggests that the observed shifts in the average track between the phases of ENSO are primarily due to changes in the large-scale steering flow, with changes in genesis location playing a secondary role. Potential changes in TC tracks over the WNP due to anthropogenic climate change are also assessed. Ensemble mean projections are downscaled from 17 CMIP3 models and 26 CMIP5 models. Statistically significant decreases [~(4%–6%)] in westward moving TCs and increases [~(5%–7%)] in recurving ocean TCs are found. These correspond to projected decreases of 3–5 TCs per decade over the Philippines and increases of 1–3 TCs per decade over the central WNP. The projected changes are primarily caused by a reduction in the easterlies. This slows the storm movement, allowing more time for the beta drift to carry the storm northward and recurve. A previous study found similar results in the North Atlantic. Taken together, these results suggest that a weakening of the mean atmospheric circulation in response to anthropogenic warming will lead to fewer landfalling storms over the North Atlantic and WNP.

scholarly journals The Expected Impact of Marine Energy Farms Operating in Island Environments with Mild Wave Energy Resources—A Case Study in the Mediterranean Sea

Inventions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Liliana Rusu ◽  
Florin Onea ◽  
Eugen Rusu
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Sea State ◽  
The North ◽  
Marine Energy ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

A particularity of island areas is that they are subjected to strong sea state conditions that can have a severe impact on the beach stability, while on the other hand, they rely mainly on diesel combustion for electricity production which in the long run is not a sustainable solution. The aim of this work is to tackle these two issues, by assessing the impact of a hybrid marine energy farm that may operate near the north-western part of Giglio Island in the Mediterranean Sea. As a first step, the most relevant environmental conditions (wind and waves) over a 27-year time interval (January 1992–December 2018) were identified considering data coming from both ERA5 and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative for Sea State. An overview of the electricity production was made by considering some offshore wind turbines, the results showing that even during the summertime when there is a peak demand (but low wind resources), the demand can be fully covered by five wind turbines defined each by a rated power of 6 MW. The main objective of this work is to assess the coastal impact induced by a marine energy farm, and for this reason, various layouts obtained by varying the number of lines (one or two) and the distance between the devices were proposed. The modelling system considered has been already calibrated in the target area for this type of study while the selected device is defined by a relatively low absorption property. The dynamics of various wave parameters has been analysed, including significant wave height, but also parameters related to the breaking mechanics, and longshore currents. It was noticed that although the target area is naturally protected by the dominant waves that are coming from the south-western sector, it is possible to occur extreme waves coming from the north-west during the wintertime that can be efficiently attenuated by the presence of the marine energy farm.

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