scholarly journals On the Attribution of a Single Event to Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (22) ◽  
pp. 8297-8301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerrit Hansen ◽  
Maximilian Auffhammer ◽  
Andrew R. Solow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Recent Work ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Attributable Risk ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Single Event ◽  
Weather Events

Abstract There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisingly wide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.

scholarly journals Unravelling resilience mechanisms in forests: role of non-structural carbohydrates in responding to extreme weather events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ettore D’Andrea ◽  
Andrea Scartazza ◽  
Alberto Battistelli ◽  
Alessio Collalti ◽  
Simona Proietti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
List Type ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Late Frost

SummaryExtreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. We hypothesized that these have a strong impact on the stem radial growth and the dynamic of non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs).In order to assess the effects on mature trees of a late frost occurred in spring 2016 and a drought event characterizing the summer 2017, we monitored the phenology, the radial growth and the dynamic of starch and soluble sugars in a Mediterranean beech forest.Growth was much more reduced by spring late frost than by summer drought, while NSCs dynamic was deeply involved in counteracting the negative effects of both events, supporting plant survival and buffering source-sink imbalances under such stressful conditions, resulting in a strong trade-off between growth and NSCs dynamic in trees.Overall, our results highlight the key role of NSCs on trees resilience to extreme weather events, confirming the relevant adaptability to stressful conditions. Such an insight is useful to assess how forests may respond to the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes and to define how future management strategies can help adaptation of beech forests in the Mediterranean area.

scholarly journals Insurance Against Extreme Weather Events: An Overview

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-95
Author(s):  
Kati Kraehnert ◽  
Daniel Osberghaus ◽  
Christian Hott ◽  
Lemlem Teklegiorgis Habtemariam ◽  
Frank Wätzold ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
The State ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The World ◽  
Negative Side Effects ◽  
State Of Research

Abstract Extreme weather events increasingly threaten the economic situation of households and enterprises around the world. Insurance against extreme weather events is among the climate change adaptation instruments that are currently discussed by the policy community. This overview paper provides a synopsis of the state of research on insurance against extreme weather events, outlining advantages and limitations inherent in three main types of insurance: indemnity-based insurance, index-based insurance, and insurance-linked securities. The paper discusses issues related to insurance uptake, distributional effects, misleading incentives and potentially negative side effects, as well as the role of the state.

Lay Detection of Unusual Patterns in the Frequency of Hurricanes

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 597-609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Dryden ◽  
M. Granger Morgan ◽  
Stephen Broomell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Signal Detection Theory ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
Future Work

AbstractAn increase in the severity of extreme weather is arguably one of the most important consequences of climate change with immediate and potentially devastating impacts. Recent events, like Hurricane Harvey, stimulated public discourse surrounding the role of climate change in amplifying, or otherwise modifying, the patterns of such events. Within the scientific community, recent years have witnessed considerable progress on “climate attribution”—the use of statistical techniques to assess the probability that climate change is influencing the character of some extreme weather events. Using a novel application of signal detection theory, this article assesses when, and to what extent, laypeople attribute changes in hurricanes to climate change and whether and how certain characteristics predict this decision. The results show that people attribute hurricanes to climate change based on their preexisting climate beliefs and numeracy. Respondents who were more dubious about the existence of climate change (and more numerate) required a greater degree of evidence (i.e., a more extreme world) before they were willing to suggest that an unusual hurricane season might be influenced by climate change. However, those who have doubts were still willing to make these attributions when hurricane behavior becomes sufficiently extreme. In general, members of the public who hold different prior views about climate change are not in complete disagreement about the evidence they perceive, which leaves the possibility for future work to explore ways to bring such judgments back into alignment.

The Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (EWERAM) – An Overview

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordis Tradowsky ◽  
Greg Bodeker ◽  
Leroy Bird ◽  
Stefanie Kremser ◽  
Peter Kreft ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Event ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Business Innovation ◽  
Weather Events

<p>As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in Earth’s atmosphere, the nature of extreme weather events (EWEs) has been changing and is expected to change in the future. EWEs have contributions from anthropogenic climate change as well as from natural variability, which complicates attribution statements. EWERAM is a project that has been funded through the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Smart Ideas programme to develop the capability to provide, within days of an EWE having occurred over New Zealand, and while public interest is still high, scientifically defensible statements about the role of climate change in both the severity and frequency of that event. This is expected to raise public awareness and understanding of the effects of climate change on EWEs.</p><p>A team of researchers from five institutions across New Zealand are participating in EWERAM. EWE attribution is a multi-faceted problem and different approaches are required to address different research aims. Although robustly assessing the contribution of changes in the thermodynamic state to an observed event can be more tractable than including changes in the dynamics of weather systems, for New Zealand, changes in dynamics have had a large impact on the frequency and location of EWEs. As such, we have initiated several lines of research to deliver metrics on EWE attribution, tailored to meet the needs of various stakeholders, that encompass the effects of both dynamical and thermodynamical changes in the atmosphere. This presentation will give an overview of EWERAM and present the methodologies and tools used in the project.</p>

Reliability, Resilience and the Oncoming Wave of Retiring Baseload Units, Volume I: The Critical Role of Thermal Units During Extreme Weather Events

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter C. Balash, PhD ◽  
Kenneth C. Kern ◽  
John Brewer ◽  
Justin Adder ◽  
Christopher Nichols ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Role ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events
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