scholarly journals Development and Evaluation of an Objective Criterion for the Real-Time Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset in a Coupled Model Framework

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (15) ◽  
pp. 6234-6248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susmitha Joseph ◽  
A. K. Sahai ◽  
S. Abhilash ◽  
R. Chattopadhyay ◽  
N. Borah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Objective Criterion ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
The Real ◽  
Low Level

Abstract This study reports an objective criterion for the real-time extended-range prediction of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), using circulation as well as rainfall information from the 16 May initial conditions of the Grand Ensemble Prediction System based on the coupled model CFSv2. Three indices are defined, one from rainfall measured over Kerala and the others based on the strength and depth of the low-level westerly jet over the Arabian Sea. While formulating the criterion, the persistence of both rainfall and low-level wind after the MOK date has been considered to avoid the occurrence of “bogus onsets” that are unrelated to the large-scale monsoon system. It is found that the predicted MOK date matches well with the MOK date declared by the India Meteorological Department, the authorized principal weather forecasting agency under the government of India, for the period 2001–14. The proposed criterion successfully avoids predicting bogus onsets, which is a major challenge in the prediction of MOK. Furthermore, the evolution of various model-predicted large-scale and local meteorological parameters corresponding to the predicted MOK date is in good agreement with that of the observation, suggesting the robustness of the devised criterion and the suitability of CFSv2 model for MOK prediction. However, it should be noted that the criterion proposed in the present study can be used only in the dynamical prediction framework, as it necessitates input data on the future evolution of rainfall and low-level wind.

scholarly journals Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the FGOALS-f2 Ensemble Prediction System

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 1759-1778
Author(s):  
Jinxiao Li ◽  
Qing Bao ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
Guoxiong Wu ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System

AbstractThere is a distinct gap between tropical cyclone (TC) prediction skill and the societal demand for accurate predictions, especially in the western Pacific (WP) and North Atlantic (NA) basins, where densely populated areas are frequently affected by intense TC events. In this study, seasonal prediction skill for TC activity in the WP and NA of the fully coupled FGOALS-f2 V1.0 dynamical prediction system is evaluated. In total, 36 years of monthly hindcasts from 1981 to 2016 were completed with 24 ensemble members. The FGOALS-f2 V1.0 system has been used for real-time predictions since June 2017 with 35 ensemble members, and has been operationally used in the two operational prediction centers of China. Our evaluation indicates that FGOALS-f2 V1.0 can reasonably reproduce the density of TC genesis locations and tracks in the WP and NA. The model shows significant skill in terms of the TC number correlation in the WP (0.60) and the NA (0.61) from 1981 to 2015; however, the model underestimates accumulated cyclone energy. When the number of ensemble members was increased from 2 to 24, the correlation coefficients clearly increased (from 0.21 to 0.60 in the WP, and from 0.18 to 0.61 in the NA). FGOALS-f2 V1.0 also successfully reproduces the genesis potential index pattern and the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and TC activity, which is one of the dominant contributors to TC seasonal prediction skill. However, the biases in large-scale factors are barriers to the improvement of the seasonal prediction skill, e.g., larger wind shear, higher relative humidity, and weaker potential intensity of TCs. For real-time predictions in the WP, FGOALS-f2 V1.0 demonstrates a skillful prediction for track density in terms of landfalling TCs, and the model successfully forecasts the correct sign of seasonal anomalies of landfalling TCs for various regions in China.

scholarly journals A Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Seasonal Prediction

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 812-828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Mi Min ◽  
Vladimir N. Kryjov ◽  
Chung-Kyu Park
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Gaussian Approximation ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Sampling Errors ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System

Abstract A probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction system (PMME) has been developed to provide operational seasonal forecasts at the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC). This system is based on an uncalibrated multimodel ensemble, with model weights inversely proportional to the errors in forecast probability associated with the model sampling errors, and a parametric Gaussian fitting method for the estimate of tercile-based categorical probabilities. It is shown that the suggested method is the most appropriate for use in an operational global prediction system that combines a large number of models, with individual model ensembles essentially differing in size and model weights in the forecast and hindcast datasets being inconsistent. Justification for the use of a Gaussian approximation of the precipitation probability distribution function for global forecasts is also provided. PMME retrospective and real-time forecasts are assessed. For above normal and below normal categories, temperature forecasts outperform climatology for a large part of the globe. Precipitation forecasts are definitely more skillful than random guessing for the extratropics and climatological forecasts for the tropics. The skill of real-time forecasts lies within the range of the interannual variability of the historical forecasts.

Single Chip Microcomputer Cluster Management

2014 ◽  
Vol 933 ◽  
pp. 584-589
Author(s):  
Zhi Chun Zhang ◽  
Song Wei Li ◽  
Wei Ren Wang ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Li Jun Qi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Management System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fault Tolerant ◽  
Single Chip ◽  
Single Chip Microcomputer ◽  
Cluster Management ◽  
The Real ◽  
Time Performance ◽  
Operational Phase

This paper presents a system in which the cluster devices are controlled by single-chip microcomputers, with emphasis on the cluster management techniques of single-chip microcomputers. Each device in a cluster is controlled by a single-chip microcomputer collecting sample data sent to and driving the device by driving data received from the same cluster management computer through COMs. The cluster management system running on the cluster management computer carries out such control as initial SCM identification, run time slice management, communication resource utilization, fault tolerance and error corrections on single-chip microcomputers. Initial SCM identification is achieved by signal responses between the single-chip microcomputers and the cluster management computer. By using the port priority and the parallelization of serial communications, the systems real-time performance is maximized. The real-time performance can be adjusted and improved by increasing or decreasing COMs and the ports linked to each COM, and the real-time performance can also be raised by configuring more cluster management computers. Fault-tolerant control occurs in the initialization phase and the operational phase. In the initialization phase, the cluster management system incorporates unidentified single-chip microcomputers into the system based on the history information recorded on external storage media. In the operational phase, if an operation error of reading and writing on a single-chip microcomputer reaches a predetermined threshold, the single-chip microcomputer is regarded as serious fault or not existing. The cluster management system maintains accuracy maintenance database on external storage medium to solve nonlinear control of specific devices and accuracy maintenance due to wear. The cluster management system uses object-oriented method to design a unified driving framework in order to enable the implementation of the cluster management system simplified, standardized and easy to transplant. The system has been applied in a large-scale simulation system of 230 single-chip microcomputers, which proves that the system is reliable, real-time and easy to maintain.

scholarly journals Real-Time Safety Evaluation for Slope during Construction Using Numerical Forecast and Sensor Monitoring Platform

Sensors ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 2978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sherong Zhang ◽  
Dejun Hou ◽  
Chao Wang ◽  
Xuexing Cao ◽  
Fenghua Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
The Real ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Data Feedback ◽  
Numerical Forecast ◽  
Slope Safety

Geology uncertainties and real-time construction modification induce an increase of construction risk for large-scale slope in hydraulic engineering. However, the real-time evaluation of slope safety during construction is still an unsettled issue for mapping large-scale slope hazards. In this study, the real-time safety evaluation method is proposed coupling a construction progress with numerical analysis of slope safety. New revealed geological information, excavation progress adjustment, and the support structures modification are updating into the slope safety information model-by-model restructuring. A dynamic connection mapping method between the slope restructuring model and the computable numerical model is illustrated. The numerical model can be generated rapidly and automatically in database. A real-time slope safety evaluation system is developed and its establishing method, prominent features, and application results are briefly introduced in this paper. In our system, the interpretation of potential slope risk is conducted coupling dynamic numerical forecast and monitoring data feedback. The real case study results in a comprehensive real-time safety evaluation application for large slope that illustrates the change of environmental factor and construction state over time.

scholarly journals Ensemble forecasting with a stochastic convective parametrization based on equilibrium statistics

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 30457-30485 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Groenemeijer ◽  
G. C. Craig
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Total Variance ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The stochastic Plant-Craig scheme for deep convection was implemented in the COSMO mesoscale model and used for ensemble forecasting. Ensembles consisting of 100 48 h forecasts at 7 km horizontal resolution were generated for a 2000 × 2000 km domain covering central Europe. Forecasts were made for seven case studies and characterized by different large-scale meteorological environments. Each 100 member ensemble consisted of 10 groups of 10 members, with each group driven by boundary and initial conditions from a selected member from the global ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. The precipitation variability within and among these groups of members was computed, and it was found that the relative contribution to the ensemble variance introduced by the stochastic convection scheme was substantial, amounting to as much as 76% of the total variance in the ensemble in one of the studied cases. The impact of the scheme was not confined to the grid scale, and typically contributed 25–50% of the total variance even after the precipitation fields had been smoothed to a resolution of 35 km. The variability of precipitation introduced by the scheme was approximately proportional to the total amount of convection that occurred, while the variability due to large-scale conditions changed from case to case, being highest in cases exhibiting strong mid-tropospheric flow and pronounced meso- to synoptic scale vorticity extrema. The stochastic scheme was thus found to be an important source of variability in precipitation cases of weak large-scale flow lacking strong vorticity extrema, but high convective activity.

scholarly journals Construction of Intelligent Integrated Model Framework for the Workshop Manufacturing System Via Digital Twin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongyu Zhang ◽  
Zhenjie Zhu ◽  
Jinsheng Zhang ◽  
Jingkun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Production System ◽  
Manufacturing System ◽  
System Optimization ◽  
Production Cycle ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
The Real ◽  
Digital Twin ◽  
Twin Model ◽  
Information Layer

Abstract With the drastic development of the globally advanced manufacturing industry, transition of the original production pattern from traditional industries to advanced intelligence is completed with the least delay possible, which are still facing new challenges. Because the timeliness, stability and reliability of them is significantly restricted due to lack of the real-time communication. Therefore, an intelligent workshop manufacturing system model framework based on digital twin is proposed in this paper, driving the deep inform integration among the physical entity, data collection, and information decision-making. The conceptual and obscure of the traditional digital twin is refined, optimized, and upgraded on the basis of the four-dimension collaborative model thinking. A refined nine-layer intelligent digital twin model framework is established. Firstly, the physical evaluation is refined into entity layer, auxiliary layer and interface layer, scientifically managing the physical resources as well as the operation and maintenance of the instrument, and coordinating the overall system. Secondly, dividing the data evaluation into the data layer and the processing layer can greatly improve the flexible response-ability and ensure the synchronization of the real-time data. Finally, the system evaluation is subdivided into information layer, algorithm layer, scheduling layer, and functional layer, developing flexible manufacturing plan more reasonably, shortening production cycle, and reducing logistics cost. Simultaneously, combining SLP and artificial bee colony are applied to investigate the production system optimization of the textile workshop. The results indicate that the production efficiency of the optimized production system is increased by 34.46%.

scholarly journals Prospects for Improving Subseasonal Predictions

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (11) ◽  
pp. 3648-3666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathy Pegion ◽  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
Thermal Inertia ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Predictability Analysis ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Extending atmospheric prediction skill beyond the predictability limit of about 10 days for daily weather rests on the hope that some time-averaged aspects of anomalous circulations remain predictable at longer forecast lead times, both because of the existence of natural low-frequency modes of atmospheric variability and coupling to the ocean with larger thermal inertia. In this paper the week-2 and week-3 forecast skill of two global coupled atmosphere–ocean models recently developed at NASA and NOAA is compared with that of much simpler linear inverse models (LIMs) based on the observed time-lag correlations of atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies in the tropics. The coupled models are found to beat the LIMs only slightly, and only if an ensemble prediction methodology is employed. To assess the potential for further skill improvement, a predictability analysis based on the relative magnitudes of forecast signal and forecast noise in the LIM framework is conducted. Estimating potential skill by such a method is argued to be superior to using the ensemble-mean and ensemble-spread information in the coupled model ensemble prediction system. The LIM-based predictability analysis yields relatively conservative estimates of the potential skill, and suggests that outside the tropics the average coupled model skill may already be close to the potential skill, although there may still be room for improvement in the tropical forecast skill.

scholarly journals On the Impact of the Choice of Global Ensemble in Forcing a Regional Ensemble System

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 515-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Weidle ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Geert Smet
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Lateral Boundary Condition ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Driving Model ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract It is quite common that in a regional ensemble system the large-scale initial condition (IC) perturbations and the lateral boundary condition (LBC) perturbations are taken from a global ensemble prediction system (EPS). The choice of global EPS as a driving model can have a significant impact on the performance of the regional EPS. This study investigates the impact of large-scale IC/LBC perturbations obtained from different global EPSs on the forecast quality of a regional EPS. For this purpose several experiments are conducted where the Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement International–Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) regional ensemble is forced by two of the world’s leading global ensembles, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) and the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which provide the IC and LBC perturbations. The investigation is carried out for a 51-day period during summer 2010 over central Europe. The results indicate that forcing of the regional ensemble with GEFS performs better for surface parameters, whereas at upper levels forcing with ECMWF-EPS is superior. Using perturbations from GEFS lead to a considerably higher spread in ALADIN-LAEF, which is beneficial near the surface where regional EPSs are usually underdispersive. At upper levels, forcing with GEFS leads to an overdispersion of ALADIN-LAEF as a result of the large spread of some parameters, where forcing ALADIN-LAEF with ECMWF-EPS provides statistically more reliable forecasts. The results indicate that the best global EPS might not always provide the best ICs and LBCs for a regional ensemble.

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