scholarly journals Differences between Arctic Interannual and Decadal Variability across Climate States

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (18) ◽  
pp. 6035-6050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse Reusen ◽  
Eveline van der Linden ◽  
Richard Bintanja
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Heat Transport ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Heat ◽  
Oceanic Transport

ABSTRACTLong-term climate variations have the potential to amplify or dampen (human-induced) trends in temperature. Understanding natural climate variability is therefore of vital importance, especially since the variability itself may change with a changing climate. Here, we quantify the magnitude and other characteristics of interannual to decadal variability in Arctic temperature and their dependence on the climate state. Moreover, we identify the processes responsible for the state dependency of the variations, using five quasi-equilibrium climate simulations of a state-of-the-art global climate model with 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 times present-day atmospheric CO2 forcing. The natural fluctuations in Arctic temperature, including their dependence on the state of the climate, are linked to anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat transports toward the Arctic. Model results suggest that atmospheric heat transport leads (and also controls) Arctic temperature variations on interannual time scales, whereas oceanic transport is found to govern the fluctuations on decadal time scales. This time-scale transition of atmospheric to oceanic dominance for Arctic temperature variations is most obvious when there is interannual to decadal variability in Arctic sea ice cover. In warm climates (without Arctic sea ice cover), there is no correlation between oceanic transport and surface air temperature on any time scale. In cold climates (with full Arctic sea ice cover), interaction between ocean and atmosphere is limited, leaving poleward atmospheric heat transport to be the primary driver on all time scales (interannual and decadal).

scholarly journals Arctic sea-ice oscillation: regional and seasonal perspectives

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 481-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Wang ◽  
Moto Ikeda
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Phase Fluctuation ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea

AbstractVariability of the sea-ice cover (extent) in the Northern Hemisphere (Arctic and subpolar regions) associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is investigated using historical data from 1901 to 1997. A principal-component analysis (empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs)) was applied to sea-ice area (SIA) anomalies for the period 1953−95. The leading EOF mode for the SI A anomaly shows an in-phase fluctuation in response to the AO and is called the Arctic sea-ice oscillation (ASIO). Arctic sea ice experiences seasonal variations that differ in timing and magnitude. Four types of seasonal variation are identified in the Arctic sea ice, and are superimposed on long-term interannual to decadal variability. Consistent with the total Arctic SIA anomaly eight regional SIA anomalies have shown significant in-phase decrease (downward trend) since 1970, possibly part of a very long-term (century) cycle. Thus, it is recommended that SIA anomalies in the sensitive seasons be used to better capture interannual, interdecadal and longer (century) variability. Major decadal and interdecadal time-scales of SIA anomalies are found at 12−14 and 17−20 years. In the Sea of Okhotsk, a century time-scale is evident. The reduction rate (negative trend) of the total Arctic sea-ice cover in the last three decades is −4.5% per decade, with the summer rate being the highest (-10.2% per decade). The contribution to this total reduction varies from region to region, with sea-ice cover in the Greenland and Norwegian Seas experiencing the highest reduction rate of −20.2 % per decade.

scholarly journals Polar cod in jeopardy under the retreating Arctic sea ice

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mats Brockstedt Olsen Huserbråten ◽  
Elena Eriksen ◽  
Harald Gjøsæter ◽  
Frode Vikebø
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Keystone Species ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Biophysical Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Cod ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Shelf Sea

Abstract The Arctic amplification of global warming is causing the Arctic-Atlantic ice edge to retreat at unprecedented rates. Here we show how variability and change in sea ice cover in the Barents Sea, the largest shelf sea of the Arctic, affect the population dynamics of a keystone species of the ice-associated food web, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). The data-driven biophysical model of polar cod early life stages assembled here predicts a strong mechanistic link between survival and variation in ice cover and temperature, suggesting imminent recruitment collapse should the observed ice-reduction and heating continue. Backtracking of drifting eggs and larvae from observations also demonstrates a northward retreat of one of two clearly defined spawning assemblages, possibly in response to warming. With annual to decadal ice-predictions under development the mechanistic physical-biological links presented here represent a powerful tool for making long-term predictions for the propagation of polar cod stocks.

scholarly journals Low-frequency bursts of horizontally polarized waves in the Arctic sea-ice cover

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (202) ◽  
pp. 231-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Marsan ◽  
Jérôme Weiss ◽  
Jean-Philippe Métaxian ◽  
Jacques Grangeon ◽  
Pierre-François Roux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Strong Activity ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Polarized Waves ◽  
Arctic Sea

AbstractWe report the detection of bursts of low-frequency waves, typically f = 0.025 Hz, on horizontal channels of broadband seismometers deployed on the Arctic sea-ice cover during the DAMOCLES (Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies) experiment in spring 2007. These bursts have amplitudes well above the ambient ice swell and a lower frequency content. Their typical duration is of the order of minutes. They occur at irregular times, with periods of relative quietness alternating with periods of strong activity. A significant correlation between the rate of burst occurrences and the ice-cover deformation at the ∼400 km scale centered on the seismic network suggests that these bursts are caused by remote, episodic deformation involving shearing across regional-scale leads. This observation opens the possibility of complementing satellite measurements of ice-cover deformation, by providing a much more precise temporal sampling, hence a better characterization of the processes involved during these deformation events.

scholarly journals Arctic Sea Ice of Various Ages: I. Ultimate Strength

1964 ◽  
Vol 5 (37) ◽  
pp. 93-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Langleben ◽  
E. R. Pounder
Keyword(s):  
Crystal Structure ◽  
Tensile Strength ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ultimate Strength ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Polar Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Made In

AbstractA comparison of polar ice (several years old) with biennial ice (between one and two years old) was made in the field at lat. 79°N., long. 104° W. Vertical cores were extracted from the ice cover and sectioned. Their ultimate tensile strengths were measured by the ring-tensile method. Supporting measurements were made of the salinity, density, and crystal structure of the ice. Tensile strength values averaged 6 per cent higher for the polar ice and 21 per cent higher for the biennial ice than comparable results for annual sea ice. A few horizontal cores of biennial ice were analysed similarly with inconclusive results.

scholarly journals Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 034011 ◽  
Author(s):  
J J Day ◽  
J C Hargreaves ◽  
J D Annan ◽  
A Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Erratum to: An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 443-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihaela Caian ◽  
Torben Koenigk ◽  
Ralf Döscher ◽  
Abhay Devasthale
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

scholarly journals Late-Twentieth-Century Simulation of Arctic Sea Ice and Ocean Properties in the CCSM4

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1431-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Jahn ◽  
Kara Sterling ◽  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Jennifer E. Kay ◽  
James A. Maslanik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Motion Field ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ensemble Mean

To establish how well the new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) simulates the properties of the Arctic sea ice and ocean, results from six CCSM4 twentieth-century ensemble simulations are compared here with the available data. It is found that the CCSM4 simulations capture most of the important climatological features of the Arctic sea ice and ocean state well, among them the sea ice thickness distribution, fraction of multiyear sea ice, and sea ice edge. The strongest bias exists in the simulated spring-to-fall sea ice motion field, the location of the Beaufort Gyre, and the temperature of the deep Arctic Ocean (below 250 m), which are caused by deficiencies in the simulation of the Arctic sea level pressure field and the lack of deep-water formation on the Arctic shelves. The observed decrease in the sea ice extent and the multiyear ice cover is well captured by the CCSM4. It is important to note, however, that the temporal evolution of the simulated Arctic sea ice cover over the satellite era is strongly influenced by internal variability. For example, while one ensemble member shows an even larger decrease in the sea ice extent over 1981–2005 than that observed, two ensemble members show no statistically significant trend over the same period. It is therefore important to compare the observed sea ice extent trend not just with the ensemble mean or a multimodel ensemble mean, but also with individual ensemble members, because of the strong imprint of internal variability on these relatively short trends.

scholarly journals Tropical Decadal Variability and the Rate of Arctic Sea Ice Decrease

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Christine T. Y. Chung ◽  
Julie M. Arblaster ◽  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea
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