scholarly journals Impact of Annual Cycle on ENSO Variability and Predictability

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-193
Author(s):  
Sang-Ik Shin ◽  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh ◽  
Matthew Newman ◽  
Cecile Penland ◽  
Michael A. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Phase Locking ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Stochastic Forcing ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
The North ◽  
Linear Inverse Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Background State

AbstractLow-order linear inverse models (LIMs) have been shown to be competitive with comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean models at reproducing many aspects of tropical oceanic variability and predictability. This paper presents an extended cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) that includes the annual cycles of the background state and stochastic forcing of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies. Compared to a traditional stationary LIM that ignores such annual cycles, the CS-LIM is better at representing the seasonal modulation of ENSO-related SST anomalies and their phase locking to the annual cycle. Its deterministic as well as probabilistic hindcast skill is comparable to the skill of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) of comprehensive global coupled models. The explicit inclusion of annual-cycle effects in the CS-LIM improves the forecast skill of both SST and SSH anomalies through SST–SSH coupling. The impact on the SSH skill is particularly marked at longer forecast lead times over the western Pacific and in the vicinity of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), consistent with westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves that reflect off the western boundaries as eastward propagating Kelvin waves and influence El Niño development in the region. The higher CS-LIM skill is thus associated with the improved representation of both ENSO phase-locking and Pacific NECC variations. These improvements result from explicitly accounting for not only the annual cycle of the background state, but also that of the stochastic forcing.

scholarly journals Qualitative and quantitative reconstruction of surface water characteristics and recent hydrographic changes in the Trondheimsfjord, central Norway

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 4553-4598 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Milzer ◽  
J. Giraudeau ◽  
S. Schmidt ◽  
F. Eynaud ◽  
J. Faust
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Mixed Layer ◽  
210Pb And 137Cs ◽  
The North ◽  
Water Characteristics ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Modern Analogue ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the present study we investigate dinocyst assemblages in the Trondheimsfjord over the last 25 to 50 yr from three well-dated multi-cores (210Pb and 137Cs) retrieved along the fjord axis. The downcore distribution of the cysts is discussed in view of changes of the key surface water parameters sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-surface salinities (SSSs) monitored in the fjord, as well as river discharges. We examine the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern and of waste water supply from the local industry and agriculture on the fjord ecological state and hence dinocyst species diversity. Our results show that dinocyst production and diversity in the fjord is not evidently affected by human-induced eutrophication. Instead the assemblages appear to be mainly controlled by the NAO-related changes in physico-chemical characteristics of the surface mixed layer. Still, discharges of major rivers were modulated, since 1985 by the implementation of hydropower plants which certainly influences the freshwater and nutrient supply into the fjord. The impact, however, is variable according to the local geographical setting, and barely differentiated from natural changes in river run off. We ultimately test the use of the modern analogue technique (MAT) for the reconstruction of winter and summer SSTs and SSSs and annual primary productivity (PP) in this particular fjord setting. The reconstructed data are compared with time-series of SSTs and SSSs measured at 10 m water depth, as well as with mean annual PPs along the Norwegian coast and within Scandinavian fjords. The reconstructions are in general good agreement with the instrumental measurements and observations from other fjords. Major deviations can be addressed to peculiarities in the assemblages linked to the particular fjord setting and the related hydrological structure.

scholarly journals Impact of data assimilation of physical variables on the spring bloom from TOPAZ operational runs in the North Atlantic

Ocean Science ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 635-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Samuelsen ◽  
L. Bertino ◽  
C. Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Spring Bloom ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A reanalysis of the North Atlantic spring bloom in 2007 was produced using the real-time analysis from the TOPAZ North Atlantic and Arctic forecasting system. The TOPAZ system uses a hybrid coordinate general circulation ocean model and assimilates physical observations: sea surface anomalies, sea surface temperatures, and sea-ice concentrations using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. This ocean model was coupled to an ecosystem model, NORWECOM (Norwegian Ecological Model System), and the TOPAZ-NORWECOM coupled model was run throughout the spring and summer of 2007. The ecosystem model was run online, restarting from analyzed physical fields (result after data assimilation) every 7 days. Biological variables were not assimilated in the model. The main purpose of the study was to investigate the impact of physical data assimilation on the ecosystem model. This was determined by comparing the results to those from a model without assimilation of physical data. The regions of focus are the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. Assimilation of physical variables does not affect the results from the ecosystem model significantly. The differences between the weekly mean values of chlorophyll are normally within 5–10% during the summer months, and the maximum difference of ~20% occurs in the Arctic, also during summer. Special attention was paid to the nutrient input from the North Atlantic to the Nordic Seas and the impact of ice-assimilation on the ecosystem. The ice-assimilation increased the phytoplankton concentration: because there was less ice in the assimilation run, this increased both the mixing of nutrients during winter and the area where production could occur during summer. The forecast was also compared to remotely sensed chlorophyll, climatological nutrients, and in-situ data. The results show that the model reproduces a realistic annual cycle, but the chlorophyll concentrations tend to be between 0.1 and 1.0 mg chla/m3 too low during winter and spring and 1–2 mg chla/m3 too high during summer. Surface nutrients on the other hand are generally lower than the climatology throughout the year.

scholarly journals The Annual Cycle of East African Precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 2385-2404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenchang Yang ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Mark A. Cane ◽  
Bradfield Lyon
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Convective Stability ◽  
East African ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Short Rains ◽  
Static Energy

Abstract East African precipitation is characterized by a dry annual mean climatology compared to other deep tropical land areas and a bimodal annual cycle with the major rainy season during March–May (MAM; often called the “long rains”) and the second during October–December (OND; often called the “short rains”). To explore these distinctive features, ERA-Interim data are used to analyze the associated annual cycles of atmospheric convective stability, circulation, and moisture budget. The atmosphere over East Africa is found to be convectively stable in general year-round but with an annual cycle dominated by the surface moist static energy (MSE), which is in phase with the precipitation annual cycle. Throughout the year, the atmospheric circulation is dominated by a pattern of convergence near the surface, divergence in the lower troposphere, and convergence again at upper levels. Consistently, the convergence of the vertically integrated moisture flux is mostly negative across the year, but becomes weakly positive in the two rainy seasons. It is suggested that the semiarid/arid climate in East Africa and its bimodal precipitation annual cycle can be explained by the ventilation mechanism, in which the atmospheric convective stability over East Africa is controlled by the import of low MSE air from the relatively cool Indian Ocean off the coast. During the rainy seasons, however, the off-coast sea surface temperature (SST) increases (and is warmest during the long rains season) and consequently the air imported into East Africa becomes less stable. This analysis may be used to aid in understanding overestimates of the East African short rains commonly found in coupled models.

scholarly journals Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the North-West European Shelf?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huw W. Lewis ◽  
Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez ◽  
John Siddorn ◽  
Robert R. King ◽  
Marina Tonani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Wave Coupling ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
European Shelf ◽  
Ocean Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Operational ocean forecasts are typically produced by modelling systems run using a forced mode approach. The evolution of the ocean state is not directly influenced by surface waves, and the ocean dynamics are driven by an external source of meteorological data which is independent of the ocean state. Model coupling provides one approach to increase the extent to which ocean forecast systems can represent the interactions and feedbacks between ocean, waves and the atmosphere seen in nature. This paper demonstrates the impact of improving how the effect of waves on the momentum exchange across the ocean-atmosphere interface is represented through ocean-wave coupling on the performance of an operational regional ocean prediction system. This study focuses on the eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) Atlantic Margin Model (AMM15) ocean model configuration for the North-West European Shelf (NWS) region. A series of two-year duration forecast trials of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) North-West Shelf regional ocean prediction system are analysed. The impact of including ocean-wave feedbacks via dynamic coupling on the simulated ocean is discussed. The main interactions included are the modification of surface stress by wave growth and dissipation, Stokes–Coriolis forcing and wave height dependent ocean surface roughness. Given the relevance to operational forecasting, trials with and without ocean data assimilation are considered. Summary forecast metrics demonstrate that the ocean-wave coupled system is a viable evolution for future operational implementation. When results are considered in more depth, wave coupling was found to result in an annual cycle of relatively warmer winter and cooler summer sea surface temperatures for seasonally stratified regions of the NWS. This is driven by enhanced mixing due to waves, and a deepening of the ocean mixed layer during summer. The impact of wave coupling is shown to be reduced within the mixed layer with assimilation of ocean observations. Evaluation of salinity and ocean currents against profile measurements in the German Bight demonstrates improved simulation with wave coupling relative to control simulations. Further, evidence is provided of improvement to simulation of extremes of sea surface height anomalies relative to coastal tide gauges.

scholarly journals Upper-Ocean Mixed Layer and Wintertime Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the North Pacific

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 300-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomohiko Tomita ◽  
Masami Nonaka
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Ocean Mixed Layer ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract In the North Pacific, the wintertime sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), which is represented by March (SSTAMar), when the upper-ocean mixed layer depth (hMar) reaches its maximum, is formed by the anomalous surface forcing from fall to winter (S′). As a parameter of volume, hMar has a potential to modify the impact of S′ on SSTAMar. Introducing an upper-ocean heat budget equation, the present study identifies the physical relationship among the spatial distributions of hMar, S′, and SSTAMar. The long-term mean of hMar adjusts the spatial distribution of SSTAMar. Without the adjustment, the impact of S′ on SSTAMar is overestimated where the hMar mean is deep. Since hMar is partially due to seawater temperature, it leads to nonlinearity between the S′ and the SSTAMar. When the SSTAMar is negative (positive), the sensitivity to S′ is impervious (responsive) with the deepening (shoaling) of the hMar compared to the linear sensitivity. The thermal impacts from the ocean to the atmosphere might be underestimated under the assumption of the linear relationship.

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