Circumglobal Teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere Summer*

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 3483-3505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghua Ding ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
The Other ◽  
The North ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Circumglobal Teleconnection ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Analysis of the 56-yr NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data reveals a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime midlatitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere. This pattern represents the second leading empirical orthogonal function of interannual variability of the upper-tropospheric circulation. The CGT, having a zonal wavenumber-5 structure, is primarily positioned within a waveguide that is associated with the westerly jet stream. The spatial phases of CGT tend to lock to preferred longitudes. The geographically phase-locked patterns bear close similarity during June, August, and September, but the pattern in July shows shorter wavelengths in the North Pacific–North America sector. The CGT is accompanied by significant rainfall and surface air temperature anomalies in the continental regions of western Europe, European Russia, India, east Asia, and North America. This implies that the CGT may be a source of climate variability and predictability in the above-mentioned midlatitude regions. The CGT has significant correlations with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, in normal ISM years the CGT–ENSO correlation disappears; on the other hand, in the absence of El Niño or La Niña, the CGT–ISM correlation remains significant. It is suggested that the ISM acts as a “conductor” connecting the CGT and ENSO. When the interaction between the ISM and ENSO is active, ENSO may influence northern China via the ISM and the CGT. Additionally, the variability of the CGT has no significant association with the Arctic Oscillation and the variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon. The circulation of the wave train shows a barotropic structure everywhere except the cell located to the northwest of India, where a baroclinic circulation structure dominates. Two possible scenarios are proposed. The abnormal ISM may excite an anomalous west-central Asian high and downstream Rossby wave train extending to the North Pacific and North America. On the other hand, a wave train that is excited in the jet exit region of the North Atlantic may affect the west-central Asian high and, thus, the intensity of the ISM. It is hypothesized that the interaction between the global wave train and the ISM heat source may be instrumental in maintaining the boreal summer CGT.

scholarly journals Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Beverley ◽  
Steven J. Woolnough ◽  
Laura H. Baker ◽  
Stephanie J. Johnson ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
The North ◽  
Circumglobal Teleconnection ◽  
Rossby Wave Train ◽  
Ecmwf Model

AbstractThe circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) is an important mode of circulation variability, with an influence across many parts of the northern hemisphere. Here, we examine the excitation mechanisms of the CGT in the ECMWF seasonal forecast model, and the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the CGT and the extratropical northern hemisphere circulation. Results from relaxation experiments, in which the model is corrected to reanalysis in specific regions, suggest that errors over northwest Europe are more important in inhibiting the model skill at representing the CGT, in addition to northern hemisphere skill more widely, than west-central Asia and the ISM region, although the link between ISM precipitation and the extratropical circulation is weak in all experiments. Thermal forcing experiments in the ECMWF model, in which a heating is applied over India, suggest that the ISM does force an extratropical Rossby wave train, with upper tropospheric anticyclonic anomalies over east Asia, the North Pacific and North America associated with increased ISM heating. However, this eastward-propagating branch of the wave train does not project into Europe, and the response there occurs largely through westward-propagating Rossby waves. Results from barotropic model experiments show a response that is highly consistent with the seasonal forecast model, with similar eastward- and westward-propagating Rossby waves. This westward-propagating response is shown to be important in the downstream reinforcement of the wave train between Asia and North America.

scholarly journals Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (6) ◽  
pp. 2434-2446 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Jung ◽  
M. J. Miller ◽  
T. N. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Reduction ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
The North ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Ecmwf Model ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere during boreal winter. Generation of forecast errors during the course of the integration is artificially reduced by relaxing the ECMWF model toward the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in certain regions. Prescribing rather than persisting sea surface temperature and sea ice fields leads to a modest forecast error reduction in the extended range, especially over the North Pacific and North America; no beneficial influence is found in the medium range. Relaxation of the tropical troposphere leads to reduced extended-range forecast errors especially over the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. It is shown that a better representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation is of secondary importance for explaining the results of the tropical relaxation experiments. The influence from the tropical stratosphere is negligible. Relaxation of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere leads to forecast error reduction primarily in high latitudes and over Europe. However, given the strong influence from the troposphere onto the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere it is argued that stratospherically forced experiments are very difficult to interpret in terms of their implications for extended-range predictability of the tropospheric flow. The results are discussed in the context of future forecasting system development.

North Hemispheric winter air temperature variability and its linkage to North Pacific and North Atlantic SST modes?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binhe Luo ◽  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Lixin Wu
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Pacific

<p>Winter surface air temperature (SAT) over North America exhibits pronounced variability on sub-seasonal-to-interdecadal timescales, but its causes are not fully understood. Here observational and reanalysis data from 1950-2017 are analyzed to investigate these causes. Detrended daily SAT data reveals a known warm-west/cold-east (WWCE) dipole over midlatitude North America and a cold-north/warm-south (CNWS) dipole over eastern North America. It is found that while the North Pacific blocking (PB) is important for the WWCE and CNWS dipoles, they also depend on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When a negative-phase NAO (NAO-) concurs with PB, the WWCE dipole is enhanced (compared with the PB alone case) and it also leads to a warm north/cold south dipole anomaly in eastern North America; but when PB occurs with a positive-phase NAO (NAO<sup>+</sup>), the WWCE dipole weakens and the CNWS dipole is enhanced. In particular, the WWCE dipole is favored by a combination of eastward-displaced PB and NAO<sup>-</sup> that form a negative Arctic Oscillation. Furthermore, a WWCE dipole can form over midlatitude North America when PB occurs together with southward-displaced NAO<sup>+</sup>.The PB events concurring with NAO<sup>-</sup> (NAO<sup>+</sup>) and SAT WWCE (CNWS) dipole are favored by the El Nio-like (La Nia-like) SST mode, though related to the North Atlantic warm-cold-warm (cold-warm-cold) SST tripole pattern. It is also found that the North Pacific mode tends to enhance the WWCE SAT dipole through increasing PB-NAO<sup>-</sup> events and producing the WWCE SAT dipole component related to the PB-NAO<sup>+</sup> events because the PB and NAO<sup>+</sup> form a more zonal wave train in this case.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Land-Ocean Contrast on The Seasonal To Decadal Variability of The Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Hallam ◽  
Simon Josey ◽  
Gerard McCarthy ◽  
Joel Hirschi
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Latitude Range ◽  
The North ◽  
Regional Basis ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871 – 2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. The ocean acts to reduce the seasonal jet latitude range from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7ms -1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. Northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, indicating different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. It is important that the differing regional trends and mechanisms are incorporated into climate models and predictions.

scholarly journals Interactions of North Pacific Tropical, Midlatitude, and Polar Disturbances Resulting in Linked Extreme Weather Events over North America in October 2007

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (4) ◽  
pp. 1245-1273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lance F. Bosart ◽  
Benjamin J. Moore ◽  
Jason M. Cordeira ◽  
Heather M. Archambault
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Large Scale Flow ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract This study uses observations and model reanalyses to examine the multiscale processes associated with four high-impact extreme weather events (EWEs) over North America during late October 2007. The EWEs consisted of wind-driven wildfires in California, prolonged anomalous cold conditions in Mexico linked to two cold surges, heavy rainfall in the eastern United States, and severe flood-producing heavy rainfall in southern Mexico. The EWEs involved a pronounced large-scale flow reconfiguration across the North Pacific and North America in conjunction with the formation of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train. The flow reconfiguration involved perturbations to the North Pacific jet stream linked to polar, midlatitude, and tropical disturbances, including three tropopause-level polar disturbances originating over northeastern Asia, transient extratropical cyclones, a diabatic Rossby vortex, and western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Kajiki. Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics indicate that ridge amplification within the wave train was enhanced in connection with latent heat release along warm conveyor belts rooted in the tropics and subtropics over the North Pacific. Two anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events over North America established synoptic-scale conditions that supported the EWEs. The results highlight how the large- and synoptic-scale flow can evolve to facilitate multiple geographically separated but dynamically linked EWEs. Based on the results, it is posited that during autumn the North Pacific jet stream may be particularly conducive to large-scale flow amplification, possibly resulting in EWEs, in response to perturbations associated with tropical, midlatitude, and polar disturbances.

scholarly journals Effects of the Tibetan High and the North Pacific High on the Occurrence of Hot or Cool Summers in Japan

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 307
Author(s):  
Makoto Inoue ◽  
Atsushi Ugajin ◽  
Osamu Kiguchi ◽  
Yousuke Yamashita ◽  
Masashi Komine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
The Other ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
The North ◽  
Several Variables ◽  
Western Japan ◽  
Cool Summer ◽  
The North Pacific

In this study, we investigated the effects of the Tibetan High near the tropopause and the North Pacific High in the troposphere on occurrences of hot or cool summers in Japan. We first classified Japan into six regions and identified hot and cool summer years in these regions from a 38-year sample (1980–2017) based on the monthly air temperature. To investigate the features of circulation fields over Asia during hot and cool summers in Japan, we calculated the composite differences (hot summer years minus cool summer years) of several variables such as geopotential height, which indicated significant high-pressure anomalies in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. These results suggest that both the North Pacific and the Tibetan Highs tend to extend to Japan during hot summer years, while cool summers seem to be associated with the weakening of these highs. We found that extension of the Tibetan High to the Japanese mainland can lead to hot summers in Northern, Eastern, and Western Japan. On the other hand, hot summers in the Southwestern Islands may be due to extension of the Tibetan High to the south. Similarly, the latitudinal direction of extension of the North Pacific High is profoundly connected with the summer climate in respective regions.

Future Changes to El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Beverley ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
F. Hugo Lambert ◽  
Robin Chadwick
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Wave Source ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The North Pacific

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability and it exerts a strong influence on many remote regions of the world, for example in northern North America. Here, we examine future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector and investigate the mechanisms involved. We find that the positive temperature anomalies over Alaska and northern North America that are associated with an El Niño event in the present day are much weaker, or of the opposite sign, in the CMIP6 abrupt 4×CO2 experiments for almost all models (22 out of 26, of which 15 are statistically significant differences). This is largely related to changes to the anomalous circulation over the North Pacific, rather than differences in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using a barotropic model, run with different background circulation basic states and Rossby wave source forcing patterns from the individual CMIP6 models, we find that changes to the forcing from the equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more important than changes in the global basic state background circulation. By further decomposing this forcing change into changes associated with the longitude and magnitude of ENSO precipitation anomalies, we demonstrate that the projected overall eastward shift of ENSO precipitation is the main driver of the temperature teleconnection change, rather than the increase in magnitude of El Niño precipitation anomalies which are, nevertheless, seen in the majority of models.

scholarly journals Contrastive Influence of ENSO and PNA on Variability and Predictability of North American Winter Precipitation

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6271-6284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofan Li ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu ◽  
Ping Liang ◽  
Jieshun Zhu
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North American ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Remote Forcing ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract In this work, the roles of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the variability and predictability of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and precipitation in North America in winter are examined. It is noted that statistically about 29% of the variance of PNA is linearly linked to ENSO, while the remaining 71% of the variance of PNA might be explained by other processes, including atmospheric internal dynamics and sea surface temperature variations in the North Pacific. The ENSO impact is mainly meridional from the tropics to the mid–high latitudes, while a major fraction of the non-ENSO variability associated with PNA is confined in the zonal direction from the North Pacific to the North American continent. Such interferential connection on PNA as well as on North American climate variability may reflect a competition between local internal dynamical processes (unpredictable fraction) and remote forcing (predictable fraction). Model responses to observed sea surface temperature and model forecasts confirm that the remote forcing is mainly associated with ENSO and it is the major source of predictability of PNA and winter precipitation in North America.

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